Moss in TEN

[Bronco Billy]

Full disclosure: I own Moss in one league and just traded Garcon to acquire him in another league.

 

How does Moss figure to perform in TEN? Fisher likes to limit Young's throwing - which seems a bit odd since Young is the #2 rated starter in the NFL right now nad has a superb 9/2 TD/INT ratio as well as a 8.18 ypa, which is also 2nd in the league. Young also averages 17.4 att/gm, which is lowest in the NFL among starters.

 

With Britt out, Moss figures to acquire Britt's spot in the O - which would mean about 6 targets per game. Britt also had 7 TDs this year. Young definitely has the arm to allow Moss to stretch the field and go after jump balls, which is his forte. Moss typically averages around 15.5 ypr.

 

TEN is currently the highets scoring team in the league on a ppg basis, so scoring opportunity is there. You can't help but think Fisher is going to use Moss, and that Moss is a better WR than Britt. Fisher also knows that Moss will help the running game significantly as long as the D has to account for him - which means he has to be credible in throwing his way. Bump Moss' opportunities up to about 7 targets a game.

 

Figure 5 catches a game, 75 yds, and a TD as pretty regular production.

 

Thoughts?

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

I see Moss as one of those players that get you

Less then 6 or 25 plus ,,, he is all boom or bust l

[The Next Generation]

TEN is currently the highets scoring team in the league on a ppg basis, so scoring opportunity is there. You can't help but think Fisher is going to use Moss, and that Moss is a better WR than Britt. Fisher also knows that Moss will help the running game significantly as long as the D has to account for him - which means he has to be credible in throwing his way. Bump Moss' opportunities up to about 7 targets a game.

 

Figure 5 catches a game, 75 yds, and a TD as pretty regular production.

 

Thoughts?

 

Sounds about right on avg. He may not do much this week, but against those soft defenses coming-up, he should be golden: WAS, HOU (x2), JAX. I could see plenty of long bombs to him that connect in those games.

[Balzac]

I'd say 5/75/.75 TDs sounds about right. I think people are going to find that this guy hasn't diminished nearly as much as some thought - he can (and will) still play at a very high level.

 

As for all the people who were saying that the Pats were better without Moss (based solely on the fact that they were winning games, which is ridiculous), I don't hear them saying much lately . . . especially after this past Sunday. Pats passing game has stalled in a big way without him.

[MTSuper7]

Best case scenario is that Moss can duplicate Britt's efforts, but remember Britt caught 3 of those TDs in one game with Kerry Collins slinging passes. In games where Britt had Young throwing to him, it seemed like he had a lot more of the 3 catches for 30 yards and a TD lines. Then again, Britt was in the doghouse early on and wasn't even seeing first team reps until Gage got hurt, and he started his TD streak before that. Still, is there going to be a learning curve for the offenses' terminology? And if so, will Moss' limited grasp of the playbook make him a one trick pony in the offense? I wouldn't be excited about him at all in PPR, but I guess he probably has a 50% or better chance of scoring any given week.

[Balzac]

Best case scenario is that Moss can duplicate Britt's efforts, but remember Britt caught 3 of those TDs in one game with Kerry Collins slinging passes. In games where Britt had Young throwing to him, it seemed like he had a lot more of the 3 catches for 30 yards and a TD lines. Then again, Britt was in the doghouse early on and wasn't even seeing first team reps until Gage got hurt, and he started his TD streak before that. Still, is there going to be a learning curve for the offenses' terminology? And if so, will Moss' limited grasp of the playbook make him a one trick pony in the offense? I wouldn't be excited about him at all in PPR, but I guess he probably has a 50% or better chance of scoring any given week.

 

Can't agree with this - Moss is a better WR than Kenny Britt.

 

I think Moss showed in his first couple games with Minny that he doesn't need to know a full playbook in order to contribute - it's not like he runs precise underneath routes anyway.

[MTSuper7]

Can't agree with this - Moss is a better WR than Kenny Britt.

 

I think Moss showed in his first couple games with Minny that he doesn't need to know a full playbook in order to contribute - it's not like he runs precise underneath routes anyway.

 

Do you really think the offense or philosophy is going to change in Tennessee now? Really? Because there are only so many passes in that offense, I really don't know why you expect a spike in production from anyone in the passing game. If Moss plays Britt's role, he'll get Britt's looks. Simple, no?

[peepinmofo]

Do you really think the offense or philosophy is going to change in Tennessee now? Really? Because there are only so many passes in that offense, I really don't know why you expect a spike in production from anyone in the passing game. If Moss plays Britt's role, he'll get Britt's looks. Simple, no?

No. I would think they have a few plays here and there that are designed with Moss going up and getting it. However, I really dont expect much from Moss at all. I think the same thing will happen in that he will be more a decoy (taking the double teams) for others. His numbers wont be much, but I think a slight uptick in everyone elses is what we should expect.

[Balzac]

Do you really think the offense or philosophy is going to change in Tennessee now? Really? Because there are only so many passes in that offense, I really don't know why you expect a spike in production from anyone in the passing game. If Moss plays Britt's role, he'll get Britt's looks. Simple, no?

 

So if Moss went to play for KC and replaced Bowe, you think the best possible case for him would be to put up Bowe's numbers? What about Mike Thomas in JAX - same thing? Randy Moss is a much better WR talent than these types of guys, so I have to imagine that they'll throw the ball to him more. If Britt was getting targeted 4-5 times per game, I really wouldn't consider an additional 2-3 targets for Moss a change in the offensive philosophy of the team.

 

It's kinda nuts to assume that he's just stepping into another guy's shoes and is therefore limited to the number of looks the other guy was getting. If I'm replacing one WR with a better WR, I'm going to try to use the latter a little more than I did the former - I think that's what is pretty simple.

 

You may end up being 100% correct though.

[yoda83]

I know this is a "Moss" thread, but does anyone have any insight into Nate Washington? I don't know much about him as a WR. I guess I've assumed that he is a "downfield" guy. Is that right? Or is he a strong enough route runner to serve as a poor man's Welker?

 

And I too think Moss will be fine. TEN already has downfield pass plays. Now they can just highlight those a bit more (and maybe add a few wrinkles). Moss' presence alone shouldn't change the offense too much... Now, if the coaching staff becomes too enamored with him, or if he pulls some more shenanigans, then all bets are off.

[Balzac]

No. I would think they have a few plays here and there that are designed with Moss going up and getting it. However, I really dont expect much from Moss at all. I think the same thing will happen in that he will be more a decoy (taking the double teams) for others. His numbers wont be much, but I think a slight uptick in everyone elses is what we should expect.

 

It'll certainly be interesting to see what happens, but I think the situation in TEN is a little different than what we had in NE and MIN. In the other scenarios, we had HOF QBs who defenses had to assume would eviscerate them with Moss if he went unchecked (thus, all the double-teams). That's not the case in TEN. Plus, you've got a RB there who has essentially been the entire offense for the last 2+ years - I don't think teams are going to back off of stacking the box to stop Chris Johnson just because Randy Moss is in town. I think they'll dare Vince Young to beat them through the air, if anything.

[Balzac]

I know this is a "Moss" thread, but does anyone have any insight into Nate Washington? I don't know much about him as a WR. I guess I've assumed that he is a "downfield" guy. Is that right? Or is he a strong enough route runner to serve as a poor man's Welker?

 

And I too think Moss will be fine. TEN already has downfield pass plays. Now they can just highlight those a bit more (and maybe add a few wrinkles). Moss' presence alone shouldn't change the offense too much... Now, if the coaching staff becomes too enamored with him, or if he pulls some more shenanigans, then all bets are off.

 

He's always been more of a downfield guy but pretty much anyone can run 7 yard slants, skinny posts and 10-15 yards ins and outs - those will all be wide open IF opposing defenses decide to play Moss the same way they did when he was on the Pats/Vikes. Washington will certainly benefit quite a bit but I don't think TEN throws enough to turn anyone into a PPR gem like Welker.

 

FWIW, I picked him up just to see what he does this week. Could catch lighting in a bottle with him.

Edited November 10, 2010 by Balzac

[yoda83]

It'll certainly be interesting to see what happens, but I think the situation in TEN is a little different than what we had in NE and MIN. In the other scenarios, we had HOF QBs who defenses had to assume would eviscerate them with Moss if he went unchecked (thus, all the double-teams). That's not the case in TEN. Plus, you've got a RB there who has essentially been the entire offense for the last 2+ years - I don't think teams are going to back off of stacking the box to stop Chris Johnson just because Randy Moss is in town. I think they'll dare Vince Young to beat them through the air, if anything.

 

initially, i also think that will happen. but a few downfield strikes will change all of that... the way it's probably always been. but moss should give young a better chance to make teams pay.

[yoda83]

He's always been more of a downfield guy but pretty much anyone can run 7 yard slants, skinny posts and 10-15 yards ins and outs - those will all be wide open IF opposing defenses decide to play Moss the same way they did when he was on the Pats/Vikes. Washington will certainly benefit quite a bit but I don't think TEN throws enough to turn anyone into a PPR gem like Welker.

 

FWIW, I picked him up just to see what he does this week. Could catch lighting in a bottle with him.

 

thanks for the response, balzac. i wish i had your confidence about the underneath stuff. i think a certain skill set is required to run that stuff, get the timing down, etc. you could tell that welker was going to be a BEAST in NE by the way he was running his routes in MIA. i'm not sure if everyone is capable of doing that (or even approximating that) during a game. regardless, i'll probably pick up nate as well, just to see what happens.

[Balzac]

thanks for the response, balzac. i wish i had your confidence about the underneath stuff. i think a certain skill set is required to run that stuff, get the timing down, etc. you could tell that welker was going to be a BEAST in NE by the way he was running his routes in MIA. i'm not sure if everyone is capable of doing that (or even approximating that) during a game. regardless, i'll probably pick up nate as well, just to see what happens.

 

Welker runs routes that are a lot shorter and more complex than what I just described. He's a true "underneath" guy (mostly because he doesn't have the size or speed to beat anyone deep). A guy like him relies on quickness and oftentimes makes multiple breaks - simple slants and outs, on the other hand, are one cut and you're open. Harvin is actually more like Washington than he is like Welker - they don't need to be super-precise in their routes to exploit single coverage.

[yoda83]

Welker runs routes that are a lot shorter and more complex than what I just described. He's a true "underneath" guy (mostly because he doesn't have the size or speed to beat anyone deep). A guy like him relies on quickness and oftentimes makes multiple breaks - simple slants and outs, on the other hand, are one cut and you're open. Harvin is actually more like Washington than he is like Welker - they don't need to be super-precise in their routes to exploit single coverage.

 

Hey I'm hoping you're right! I just made the move for Washington.

[The Irish Doggy]

Taking into consideration the results in Minnesota with a HOF QB and the TEN WR historically low target counts, I remain skeptical that Moss will do much this year. He's on my bench until I see something or Collins replaces Young.

Edited November 10, 2010 by The Irish Doggy

[Scooby's Hubby]

Lot of fantasy owners shopping Moss right now...

[WaterMan]

Randy Moss just needs a QB who doesn't suck and he will post his usual numbers.

 

Can someone explain why an older Moss put up better stats with Brady than he did with Aaron Brooks?

[SatchDork]

Just to put a prediction out there, I say his end-of-year Tennessee stats (barring injury) are 38 catches, 582 yards, and 7 TDs.

 

If you're looking for a prediction for THIS WEEK, I've got some numbers for you. Randy Moss in his first game with a new team:

 

1998 - Week 1 - MIN v TB - 4 catches, 95 yards, 2 TDs (one 48-yarder)

2005 - Week 1 - OAK @ NE - 5 catches, 130 yards, 1 TD (73 yards)

2007 - Week 1 - NE @ NYJ - 9 catches, 183 yards, 1 TD (51 yards)

2010 - Week 5 - MIN @ NYJ - 4 catches, 81 yards, 1 TD (37 yards)

 

If I owned Moss, I'd be starting him this week for sure.

[MTSuper7]

So if Moss went to play for KC and replaced Bowe, you think the best possible case for him would be to put up Bowe's numbers? What about Mike Thomas in JAX - same thing? Randy Moss is a much better WR talent than these types of guys, so I have to imagine that they'll throw the ball to him more. If Britt was getting targeted 4-5 times per game, I really wouldn't consider an additional 2-3 targets for Moss a change in the offensive philosophy of the team.

 

It's kinda nuts to assume that he's just stepping into another guy's shoes and is therefore limited to the number of looks the other guy was getting. If I'm replacing one WR with a better WR, I'm going to try to use the latter a little more than I did the former - I think that's what is pretty simple.

 

You may end up being 100% correct though.

 

I guess I think more highly of Britt than I do of Bowe or Mike Thomas. I also think that defenses will adjust to Randy Moss more than they need to adjust to the likes of Dwayne Bowe or Mike Thomas, which is why Chris Johnson owners should be really happy with this signing. That's the main reason I don't think targets will change significantly. You're right though... Moss may get a couple more targets a game than Britt typically did. But in the end, they're going to use him to open up lanes for CJ2K. Moss will continue to be a red zone guy too (as was Britt).

[Balzac]

I guess I think more highly of Britt than I do of Bowe or Mike Thomas. I also think that defenses will adjust to Randy Moss more than they need to adjust to the likes of Dwayne Bowe or Mike Thomas, which is why Chris Johnson owners should be really happy with this signing. That's the main reason I don't think targets will change significantly. You're right though... Moss may get a couple more targets a game than Britt typically did. But in the end, they're going to use him to open up lanes for CJ2K. Moss will continue to be a red zone guy too (as was Britt).

 

If he actually gets targeted 1-2 more times than the 7 that Britt was getting (surprisingly high, but probably skewed by that one asinine game with Collins under center), then I think Randy is a good bet to pull in 5 or 6 of those with regularity. The more involved he is, the harder he'll go after balls.

[RattlerB]

Randy Moss just needs a QB who doesn't suck and he will post his usual numbers.

 

Can someone explain why an older Moss put up better stats with Brady than he did with Aaron Brooks?

I'll take a shot at this...

 

Brooks was never a prototypical pocket passer like Brady and with the offensive line woes that plagued the Raiders for so long, Brooks rarely had the luxury of time to find Moss. Also, I'm guessing Moss never really cared about being in Oakland because the QB situation was never cemented.

 

In NE, Moss landed in a perfect situation: the team was set at QB, offensive line and they had other weapons (Welker) that made it hard for defenses to plan solely to shut Moss down.

[SatchDork]

I think it was a rhetorical question.

[Chadman]

I would assume Moss will try fairly hard on several plays a game if his number is called on those plays. This is his last shot at getting any kind of decent contract for the next couple of years, and he knows that. Fisher can probably manage him fairly well, with Vince and CJ and a good defense, it should seem kinda fun for him in some ways. I'm guessing they'll try to get him involved to make it worth their while in picking him up - otherwise, there's no point in picking him up. I definitely think it's a move to help CJ, and ultimately, that might be the downfall of the experiment.

 

I predict: a fairly good first game, possibly a good second game, then anything is possible. If he doesn't have a good start, it won't be worthwhile after that. Like it was worth it for MN to give it a shot when they did (IMO), it's worth it for TN when they are. If they make him personally happy, it will work. If they don't, it could ruin a good shot at a nice playoff situation.