Somebody talk me off the ledge

[The Grey Pilgrim]

I'm in a league where a trade went down today that send Chris Johnson and Michael Crabtree form the 9th place team to the 2nd place team for Randy Moss and Matt Forte. The league is a total cumulative point league for the year, not head to head. And it is a PPR league, but with a twist. Each reception is worth 1 point, but not until you get 4 receptions, or more. So, 2 receptions or 3 receptions don't give you any PPR points. All other scoring would be considered standard.

 

I can see where Crabtree is maybe worth Moss, or Forte is worth Crabtree. But how is Chris Johnson now worth Matt Forte or Randy Moss?

 

Before anybody asks, it is me holding a razor thin lead in total points over the 2nd place team. 2nd place team has R Wayne, Harvin, Dez Bryant, and Tamme to trade for a front line RB, but the trade goes down with Randy Moss in the deal.

 

Should I jump, or will you talk me off the ledge?

[Hugh 0ne]

Unless you know there was collusion, there's nothing that can or should be done. It's the same old, same old.

[flemingd]

But how is Chris Johnson now worth Matt Forte or Randy Moss?

In my standard scoring homer league Forte is only 20 points behind CJ YTD. It's not a huge stretch by any means to think that Moss > Crabtree by 20 points. The only thing even remotely concerning here is the standings - is 9th eliminated from contention? If he's not I don't see how this trade is any big deal.

[The Grey Pilgrim]

I'm not really wondering if it is collusion, or whether there is anything that can be done about it. I'm wondering if there is someway that I'm am misjudging the inequity of the deal. If so, I will live with it, and maybe stay in the league in the future. If I'm not way off thinking it is a very unbalanced trade, then I suspect this will be my last year.

 

Last week the same 9th place team traded Peyton Manning for Chris Johnson. This week Chris Johnson seems to be worth Matt Forte.

[Hugh 0ne]

In one performance scoring system we use they are at the following YTD numbers:

 

CJ: 86.5

Forte: 72.5

 

Moss: 43.0

Crabtree: 36.5

 

7.5 total points difference. What's ths problem?

[The Grey Pilgrim]

Thanks FlemingD. I am taking 1 step back. But I'm still on the ledge. In my league too, there is not a tremendous disparity between Forte so far, and CJ so far. But never in a million years would I trade CJ for Forte, in order to obtain Moss for Crabtree.

[keggerz]

In one performance scoring system we use they are at the following YTD numbers:

 

CJ: 86.5

Forte: 72.5

 

Moss: 43.0

Crabtree: 36.5

 

7.5 total points difference. What's ths problem?

I agree with and to look at it a bit differently if the #9 team isn't eliminated yet maybe he thought those

guys had a better stretch to possibly make a playoff run with

 

Wks 10-13 (most playoffs start wk 14)

CJ @MIA, WASH, @HOU, JAX

Crab STL, TBB, @ARZ, @GB

 

Forte MIN, @MIA, PHL, @DET

Moss @MIA, WASH, @HOU, JAX

[Balzac]

While the guy receiving Moss is probably getting destroyed from a ROY standpoint, I can at least see why he might think it's a good deal.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

I'm in a league where a trade went down today that send Chris Johnson and Michael Crabtree form the 9th place team to the 2nd place team for Randy Moss and Matt Forte. The league is a total cumulative point league for the year, not head to head. And it is a PPR league, but with a twist. Each reception is worth 1 point, but not until you get 4 receptions, or more. So, 2 receptions or 3 receptions don't give you any PPR points. All other scoring would be considered standard.

 

I can see where Crabtree is maybe worth Moss, or Forte is worth Crabtree. But how is Chris Johnson now worth Matt Forte or Randy Moss?

 

Before anybody asks, it is me holding a razor thin lead in total points over the 2nd place team. 2nd place team has R Wayne, Harvin, Dez Bryant, and Tamme to trade for a front line RB, but the trade goes down with Randy Moss in the deal.

 

Should I jump, or will you talk me off the ledge?

 

 

When the news breaks tomorrow that CJ is out for the rest of the season then what will you think of the trade ??

What I'm saying sometimes even what appears to be uneven trades

[Jackass]

When the news breaks tomorrow that CJ is out for the rest of the season then what will you think of the trade ??

What I'm saying sometimes even what appears to be uneven trades

 

There's the same likelihood that Moss is out for the season.

 

Using that logic, you should choose an ugly girl over the hot one because "when the news hit that the hot one has syphillis, then what will you think of your decision?"

[Scooby's Hubby]

gambling that Moss will be Kenny Britt and get 100+ with a TD. It's a gamble but I could see it worth taking if you are in 9th place with CJ.

[lkirc]

I have learned over the years, as most of us have, that you have to le tthese things play out. Crazy things happen and trades thought to be unbalanced fall the other way. Just manage your own team as best you can. Don't worry about other teams. Just make it so your team scores more points.

[SatchDork]

One angle I see on the trade is if you think A - Moss' arrival is great for Moss' value (big numbers the last half of the season) and B - this will be a DETRIMENT to Chris Johnson's numbers. The conventional wisdom around the Huddle is that Moss helps Johnson by opening space in the box. Maybe this guy thinks the opposite; that Moss takes looks/yards/TDs away from CJ. It's not how I see it, but I can see someone else seeing it that way.

 

As for the other players involved, to me, it's almost a wash. San Fran is a mess, so I don't care for Crabtree. Forte has big total points, but he can't be trusted (remember that in virtually any scoring system around a third of Forte's total points came in Week 1 vs. Detroit). Maybe #9 doesn't realize this about Forte and thinks he's getting a huge upgrade at WR for practically nothing.

 

Another factor you have to consider is the rest of each team's roster. Does the guy getting Moss/Forte have a real need at WR and some options at RB? I assume the #2 guy has a solid roster and getting CJ will only help (otherwise he wouldn't be #2).

 

Finally, #9 may just be desperate, not thinking straight, and/or throwing a hail mary. There are still a few games left, but if you're #9 in any league right now, it's a longshot. He could just be swinging for the fences and may very well strikeout.

[MTSuper7]

Randy Moss is perhaps the most difficult player in the league to gauge value on right now. We haven't seen him play a single down for Tennessee yet. Kudos to whoever made this trade to get maximum value out Moss' potential. He might be a beast as the only legit weapon in the passing game. He found someone in your league that probably overvalues Moss and exploited it. Isn't that what trading is all about?

[The Grey Pilgrim]

Thanks to all who replied. You have all talked me off the ledge. I won't be jumping........today anyway.

 

We can never know the future, but from my perspective the trade has about a 10-20% likelihood that it will help #9 and an 80- 90% likelihood of helping the 2nd place team. Certainly not enough to justify handing CJ to the 2nd place team in week 10. But for now, the good news is that I will not be committing suicide. I will continue to be a Huddle member, play in several FF leagues and enjoy the great articles and football acumen provided at this website.

[SatchDork]

But for now, the good news is that I will not be committing suicide. I will continue to be a Huddle member, play in several FF leagues and enjoy the great articles and football acumen provided at this website.

 

Then my work here is done.