A. Johnson vs. Revis

[Curt Dallas]

I've got AJ and with the matchup against Revis this week, I'm debating whether or not I should sit him. Last time AJ and Revis met in 2009, Revis held him to 4 catches for 35 yards. Revis has already shutdown Calvin Johnson (1 catch, 13 yards) since returning from injury and is now 100% healthy.

Is anyone else worried about this matchup?

Will Schaub not throw towards Revis given his shutdown status?

Will AJ power through and put up the points?

Any thoughts?

[Double Agent]

Schaub may not be throwing to anyone. Roto is reporting he is in the hospital.

[Curt Dallas]

Schaub may not be throwing to anyone. Roto is reporting he is in the hospital.

 

Bursa sack injury in the knee, they're saying he'll be able to play and the hospital was just for precaution.

[ttwarrior4]

no andre is better and revis might not even be on him anyway.

[Balzac]

I'm actually quite worried about this - I just don't have anyone better to start this week (unless I play Moss)

[wolfer]

Ya in 1 league I have no choice, and in another 1 of AJ, Collie or Steve Johnson. Week 1 last year in Houston noone had seen the NYJ new defensive scheme and Schaub looked horrible (170, 1 int). Something tells me Houston will have some wrinkles prepared this time out and AJ will be fine.

[MTSuper7]

This week feels like a good week to spot start Kevin Walter. But I have to roll with AJ in my main local. Could bench AJ for Johnny Knox in the other league I have him in... Hmmm...

[giantsfan]

Honestly, I think it is about Schaub/Houston and their gameplan.

 

Look at the Detroit game 2 weeks back, they threw the ball FOUR times all game to Calvin. He caught 1 officially. And caught a 2nd one in the EZ with half a foot out of bounds. And Revis knocked down the other two (also caught another pass that was called back due to penalty).

 

So Detroit either was scared or was confident of success by throwing elsewhere, but they really didn't even try to get Calvin involved.

 

To me Revis is GREAT, but these teams pay him so much respect to the point they don't even look at the WR covered by him. Now I'm sure a lot has to do with the fact that Revis has them covered well, BUT if you have a stud who is a physical marvel like a CJ or an AJ you'd think you'd give them a shot, but the Lions didn't. Will the Texans? That is the question IMO.

 

Jennings did well, 6 for 81, and they threw to him 12 times, BUT I don't think Revis was glued to him like he was Calvin for all but a small handful of plays.

 

So the question is...will the Texans make a strong effort to get the ball to AJ and maybe throw some up in a 50/50 type situation and see if he can get it or will they not even want to test Revis and simply look to get others involved like Jones, Walter, Foster, and whomever ends up starting at TE for them.

 

That is the question to me.

[SatchDork]

From another thread I commented in. . .

 

GIANTSFAN:

"I agree. I am sure Calvin would do just as well with Staff as he would with Hill. That is my main point. To me Calvin has shown throughout his career that he will get his regardless of his QB. Again the guy had 12 TD's two years ago with no real QB. And he did VERY well with Hill (and a little Stanton) as his QB this year. So I just don't see the "oh no Staff is out there goes Calvin's value" mindset.

 

To me the Bears game bothered me, but to be honest the Jets game bothered me more. YES Revis is great, but man they didn't even test him.

 

Calvin is a 6'5" beast and they don't even try anything?

 

Run it down:

 

pass 1 was the first play of the game. Long bomb knocked away by Revis. No harm no foul. Calvin could have made a play. Revis knocked it away.

"fake" pass 2 was a 15 or so yard gain on a slant on the 1st drive. Caught by CJ. Called back by penalty. He beat Revis there.

"real" pass 2 was a 13 yard completion on a slant also on the 1st drive. He beat Revis there.

pass 3 didn't come until early in the 2nd Q. A pretty useless 3 yard pass on a 3rd and 5 that Revis knocked down. Revis won that battle, but even a catch would have left them short.

pass 4 didn't come until AAAAAALLLLLLLLL the way early in the 4th Q. And CJ caught the pass, but his 2nd foot was out of bounds so no TD.

 

Now maybe you can say the coaches said look elsewhere, but my frustration was he didn't even try IMO. Look at the chart above. Anything crazy or bad there that would make you say "guess we can't throw to CJ today"? Not in my opinion.

 

I feel pretty confident that if Hill were in there would have been more shots to CJ. Just my opinion.

 

But at day's end I stand by my main point that to me CJ will do pretty much the same with Hill or Staff at QB. I truly feel that way, and I think CJ's history shows that to be the case also. He's been a stud with guys like CPep and Orvlovsky at QB."

 

SATCHDORK:

"Completely agree with you on the analysis of Calvin and the QBs, but disagree about Revis. It seems that due to the holdout and early season injury that people have forgotten just how good this guy is. Last season he held Andre Johnson to 4 for 35, Colston to 2 for 33, Mike Sims-Walker (when he was good) to 2 for 23 (his 26-yard TD was against Lito Shepphard), Steve Smith CAR to 1 for 5, Roddy White to 4 for 33, Reggie Wayne to 3 for 33, Chad Ochocinco to nothing (4 total completions for the Bengals, in fact), and Randy Moss to a combined 9 for 58 in two games. Moss is the only one of the group to score a TD against Revis, but that was on a quick hitch where Moss strolled the 4 yards into the endzone before Revis could close i.e. Moss didn't really "beat" Revis for the score. Speaking of the Pats: In the game the Jets won, Julian Edelman caught 8 for 98 and, in the game the Pats won, Welker caught 15 for 192. The Falcons, Saints, and Jags also beat the Jets by simply avoiding Revis and spreading the ball around elsewhere. Here are some reminders of what happens when you "test" Revis:

 

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2009092005/2...@jets#tab:watch

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2009112905/2...@jets#tab:watch

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2009112905/2...@jets#tab:watch

 

Does it take a play like this before you DO say "guess we can't throw to Calvin today" (i.e. after it's too late)? Or do you sort of start out with that assumption and see if you can get something going elsewhere before you start forcing things?

 

Considering all this and especially the fact that Revis was back to his usual, healthy self last Sunday, the Lions gameplan makes sense. They took one shot with Calvin (albeit on the first play) and it didn't work out, so for the rest of the game they took what the Jets gave them in the passing game; namely Burleson, Best, and the TEs. The plan worked to perfection for about 58 minutes. Ultimately, I think it's pretty clear that the Lions lost that game thanks to poor coaching (clock management) and bad defense (missed tackles, especially on final drive of regulation; blown coverage on Edwards and Holmes), NOT because they didn't force feed Calvin the ball. You do that too much and Revis will make you pay by killing drives, stealing possessions, and possibly putting points on the board himself. It's not so much that you CAN'T throw against him, but your chances are much better throwing to a lesser WR working against a lesser CB. If you can win by avoiding Revis (like the '09 Falcons, Saints, Jaguars, and Patriots did and the '10 Lions essentially did), then avoid him. I know fantasy and Madden players don't like this, but it makes good, solid, NFL sense.

 

I gotta' think that, had the Lions pulled out the win, the only people bumming about Calvin's lack of use/production would be his fantasy owners. "

 

------------------------------------

 

Bottomline: Whether you think teams avoid Revis because he's good or that he's good because teams avoid him, sit AJ against Revis (note: AJ was also shut down by Nnamdi a season or two ago). I'd rather start Kevin Walter than AJ (look at Nate Burleson vs. Calvin Johnson this season). In reality, with their QB also dinged up, I wouldn't start either. Caveat: unless you're nearly certain the guy you'd start in AJ's place would not exceed 4 catches for 35 yards.

Edited November 18, 2010 by SatchDork

[giantsfan]

Bottomline: Whether you think teams avoid Revis because he's good or that he's good because teams avoid him, sit AJ against Revis (note: AJ was also shut down by Nnamdi a season or two ago). I'd rather start Kevin Walter than AJ (look at Nate Burleson vs. Calvin Johnson this season). In reality, with their QB also dinged up, I wouldn't start either. Caveat: unless you're nearly certain the guy you'd start in AJ's place would not exceed 4 catches for 35 yards.

I agree with you. That was my point. If teams are "scared" to throw to Revis' guy then that's it. I see a lot of the same comments in here that were discussed with Calvin. Oh he's a beast. He is the man. So on and so on. If teams refuse to throw to Revis' guy (for whatever reason) that is the bottom line.

 

So while I would still start AJ unless I had clear top 17-20 options instead, I would be very surprised if he went large unless Revis gets hurt.

[historymike]

Agreed with most posters that the bigger concerns for AJ owners relate to Schaub. AJ is good enough to make some plays against even the best corners and safeties, but if Schaub is dinged or playing poorly, AJ's skills might not matter in his production.

[Easy n Dirty]

Definitely worried about it, but as of now I still have AJ inked in ahead of James Jones or Mike Thomas.

[NEPats]

We play 2 WRs, 2 RBs, and a Flex. 0.5 PPR

 

Right now I've got:

 

WR: A. Johnson

WR: M. Wallace

RB: A. Foster

RB: F. Gore

Flex: C. Benson

 

I have M. Williams(TB) and just picked up D. Amendola (nice PPR player).

 

Should I make any changes here? Thinking if Schaub is banged up switching AJ for M. Williams.

 

And if Benson is banged up possiblly throwing Amendola or Knox in the Flex?

 

So confused....

 

edited to add (TB) to distinguish which M. Williams.

Edited November 19, 2010 by NEPats

[Rovers]

The soft spot in the Jets' defense has been in the middle, where slot recievers and TE's usually make hay. How good is AJ's ankle? In addition, Cromartie has been playing very solidly for the Jets, and Revis may not follow AJ this week. It's sort of like starting a very good RB against Pittsburgh. Forget about having great numbers, but solid numbers are a possibility.

 

I am not an AJ owner, but I would be hard pressed to bench him. It only takes one big play. Houston won't be able to run on ther Jets, so what's left? I'd likely roll with AJ.

[LosGatosEnFuegos]

Honestly, I think it is about Schaub/Houston and their gameplan.

 

Look at the Detroit game 2 weeks back, they threw the ball FOUR times all game to Calvin. He caught 1 officially. And caught a 2nd one in the EZ with half a foot out of bounds. And Revis knocked down the other two (also caught another pass that was called back due to penalty).

 

So Detroit either was scared or was confident of success by throwing elsewhere, but they really didn't even try to get Calvin involved.

 

To me Revis is GREAT, but these teams pay him so much respect to the point they don't even look at the WR covered by him. Now I'm sure a lot has to do with the fact that Revis has them covered well, BUT if you have a stud who is a physical marvel like a CJ or an AJ you'd think you'd give them a shot, but the Lions didn't. Will the Texans? That is the question IMO.

 

Jennings did well, 6 for 81, and they threw to him 12 times, BUT I don't think Revis was glued to him like he was Calvin for all but a small handful of plays.

 

So the question is...will the Texans make a strong effort to get the ball to AJ and maybe throw some up in a 50/50 type situation and see if he can get it or will they not even want to test Revis and simply look to get others involved like Jones, Walter, Foster, and whomever ends up starting at TE for them.

 

That is the question to me.

I'm going to disagree with the first part here.

 

In 2009, Revis was thrown at 108 times. Only two CBs were thrown at more. Revis allowed only 40 receptions for 439yds & 2 TDs, leading the NFL in receptions/# of times thrown at : 37%.

 

Even last year, when he was thrown at almost 7 times per game, he only gave up an average of 27yards/game & 1 TD/8 games.

 

Teams gameplan away from him for a reason. He does have them covered well.

 

2009:

108 Total Passes

40 Receptions by receiver

31 Knocked away by Revis

6 intercepted by Revis

31 incomplete

 

Him being thrown at 4 times vs. DET is only 3 times less/game than he was in 2009, when he was 3rd in # of times thrown at. That's not even cutting that number in half, and it's because when you throw at Revis, you complete fewer passes.

 

FWIW, I picked up Nate Washington & am starting him over AJ. My other two starting WRs: Mike Thomas & Mario Manningham.

 

I just don't trust anyone vs. a healthy Revis.

 

People have been saying you can start AJ if you're comfortable with him going 4/40, but I see that as the high end. Based on Revis' 2009 #s, they'd need to throw at AJ 11 times to reach 4 catches.

 

Houston has enough weapons to at least try to make something happen elsewhere. They saw Hillis rush successfully last week, & the slot/TE should see a lot of work. Unless AJ gets matched up on a lesser corner & Schaub hits him on a deep shot, he will be in the doldrums all day.

[Swashbucklers]

I am rolling with Wallace over AJ this week. It is an important week for me and I feel like Wallace (even against Nhamdi sometimes) is a better play than AJ. Another reason is I am starting Foster against the Jets in the same league and feel that Wallace has a higher ceiling and playing two Texans (and getting low numbers from them) will make it difficult for me to win.

[CrazyOne]

I am rolling with Wallace over AJ this week. It is an important week for me and I feel like Wallace (even against Nhamdi sometimes) is a better play than AJ. Another reason is I am starting Foster against the Jets in the same league and feel that Wallace has a higher ceiling and playing two Texans (and getting low numbers from them) will make it difficult for me to win.

 

Heh, really? I dunno, the whole avoiding two players on the same team in case the whole team goes bust that week seems a little overly paranoid to me when you're talking players like Foster and AJ. Yes, it COULD happen. So can a lot of things. I rolled with Foster and AJ all season (7-3, granted, not undefeated or anything, just tied for best record) and would have continued to do so except...

 

...I just traded away AJ at the deadline and have Wallace, so this week I'll be doing the same thing, starting Wallace (and Wayne). Course you have the whole Schaub issue with AJ, that is a concern as well. Perhaps together this makes the decision to sit AJ easier. I certainly can see the logic given all these factors, but don't be surprised if he has a decent day anyway. If I personally still had AJ, not sure I could sit him. Good luck with it.

[Swashbucklers]

Heh, really? I dunno, the whole avoiding two players on the same team in case the whole team goes bust that week seems a little overly paranoid to me when you're talking players like Foster and AJ. Yes, it COULD happen. So can a lot of things. I rolled with Foster and AJ all season (7-3, granted, not undefeated or anything, just tied for best record) and would have continued to do so except...

 

...I just traded away AJ at the deadline and have Wallace, so this week I'll be doing the same thing, starting Wallace (and Wayne). Course you have the whole Schaub issue with AJ, that is a concern as well. Perhaps together this makes the decision to sit AJ easier. I certainly can see the logic given all these factors, but don't be surprised if he has a decent day anyway. If I personally still had AJ, not sure I could sit him. Good luck with it.

I would having a hard time sitting AJ. I too have played them every week with pretty good results. I have not worried about that in the past since my team basically consists of Texans and Eagles. The news about Schaub, plus AJ playing against Revis gives me concern. I have Wallace as my other option so it is not like I would be sitting him for the likes of James Jones or Burleson. I am sure I will waffle on this decision until kickoff on Sunday and then ultimately make the wrong call!

[SatchDork]

I'm certainly not saying AJ is 100% unstartable. He will get some looks and, of course, it only takes one play (even the Great & Powerful Revis is susceptible). It depends on who else you've got. Working off some of the names thrown out here, I'd probably start Wallace, Manningham, Amendola, and James Jones over him - Thomas, Knox, and Washington would also get consideration. I also nominate Kevin Walter as a sneaky start this week based on what Nate Burleson did opposite Calvin Johnson two weeks ago. If your other options are even worse than these guys and/or hurt, then by all means, start AJ. Just realize he's like a borderline WR3 this week, not a no-brainer #1. Look at anything you get out of him as a bonus.

[SatchDork]

I would having a hard time sitting AJ. I too have played them every week with pretty good results. I have not worried about that in the past since my team basically consists of Texans and Eagles. The news about Schaub, plus AJ playing against Revis gives me concern. I have Wallace as my other option so it is not like I would be sitting him for the likes of James Jones or Burleson. I am sure I will waffle on this decision until kickoff on Sunday and then ultimately make the wrong call!

 

Start Wallace and don't look back. Even if Nnamdi is playing, he's been nursing a high ankle sprain for 3 or 4 weeks. I'd much rather have Wallace at home vs. busted up Nnamdi (and the rest of the Raiders) than AJ on the road with a busted up ankle and QB vs. Revis (and the rest of the Jets) this week.

[Scooby's Hubby]

Definitely worried about it, but as of now I still have AJ inked in ahead of James Jones or Mike Thomas.

 

it's kinda like if you don't start AJ and he does good, you say to yourself, "what the hell was I thinking starting James Jones over AJ"

 

you have to start AJ and hope he can haul in at least one TD. although, Mike Thomas is temtping to try to get in your line-up somewhere.

Edited November 20, 2010 by Scooby's Hubby

[Henry Muto]

I am in 2 leagues where my playoff hopes are on the line and need to debate AJ.

 

Likely I play him in 1 league and sit him in the other

 

My 1 league's other option is Green-Ellis

 

The other league I have 6 great/hot WR's so maybe I can afford to sit AJ needing to start 4.

 

AJ, Owens, Colston, Mike Wallace, Dez Bryant, Mike Thomas

[Henry Muto]

it's kinda like if you don't start AJ and he does good, you say to yourself, "what the hell was I thinking starting James Jones over AJ"

 

you have to start AJ and hope he can haul in at least one TD. although, Mike Thomas is temtping to try to get in your line-up somewhere.

That's what I thought about Marshall on Thursday night and now I am in a hole. So do I dig a deeper hole and start AJ ?

[Scooby's Hubby]

I am in 2 leagues where my playoff hopes are on the line and need to debate AJ.

 

Likely I play him in 1 league and sit him in the other

 

My 1 league's other option is Green-Ellis

 

The other league I have 6 great/hot WR's so maybe I can afford to sit AJ needing to start 4.

 

AJ, Owens, Colston, Mike Wallace, Dez Bryant, Mike Thomas

 

 

That's what I thought about Marshall on Thursday night and now I am in a hole. So do I dig a deeper hole and start AJ ?

 

 

well, you have to start Wallace on the roster above and I might would start TO over AJ. It's just that AJ has no other competition from his team ala Calvin Johnson and when AJ poorly performs it is 90% of the time b/c of injury. But TO and Wallace sure look good, especially Wallace. And if you start 4 WRs then AJ makes it, surely. and I would not have started Marshall, btw, which is what I have been preaching to Scooby all week.

Edited November 21, 2010 by Scooby's Hubby

[SatchDork]

well, you have to start Wallace on the roster above and I might would start TO over AJ. It's just that AJ has no other competition from his team ala Calvin Johnson and when AJ poorly performs it is 90% of the time b/c of injury. But TO and Wallace sure look good, especially Wallace. And if you start 4 WRs then AJ makes it, surely. and I would not have started Marshall, btw, which is what I have been preaching to Scooby all week.

 

That hurts your position that AJ should be started more than it helps it. First, you're saying Calvin and AJ are comparable. Well, Revis just shut out Calvin, so that seems to suggest sitting AJ. As for that 90% injury number, let's just assume for argument's sake that that's true; that 90% of the time AJ underperforms it's due to injury. What about that other 10%? I think you can make a pretty good case that it's accounted for in the games where he's lined up against an elite corner (for the purposes of this commentary, the only elite corners are Revis, Asomugha, and Woodson). AJ has not met any of these guys yet these season (he missed the Oakland game with the ankle problem). In 2009, as has already been mentioned, Revis held him to 4 for 35. What hasn't been mentioned is that, also in 2009, Nnamdi held AJ to 1 catch for 4 yards (note: AJ actually had 2 catches for 66 yards in the game, but the 1st quarter, 62-yard, non-TD bomb came against Chris Johnson & Michael Huff - Nnamdi shut him down the rest of the game). In 2008, Nnamdi held AJ to 2 catches for 19 yards (AJ had over 200 yards vs. TEN the week before, so I don't think he was hurt). That same year, Charles Woodson (and/or Al Harris) held him to 4 catches for 55 yards and an 11-yard TD (I don't know who gave up the TD).

 

I don't bring these numbers up to slight AJ at all. He is clearly one of, if not THE, best WRs in the NFL and consistently beats one-on-one and double coverage. For some reason, though, he does not perform well against the few elite corners in the league. Maybe it's the coaches game-planning away from these CBs or maybe AJ just can't beat them consistently (at least not as consistently as Kevin Walter or Owen Daniels or whoever else can beat their men). Maybe we just aren't giving these corners the respect they deserve (it seems to be general football fan opinion that any elite WR should be able to torch any CB one-on-one; maybe that's just not true of a select few CBs). Again, the reason doesn't really matter because the bottomline is he doesn't produce. On top of this is the fact that AJ hasn't been 100% all season and now Schaub isn't 100% either. This means the chips are stacked even higher against AJ than usual.

 

To me, this week, Owens v BUF, Wallace v OAK, Colston v SEA, and Bryant v DET are all easily startable over AJ @ NYJ. Thomas is an option, too, but not a no-brainer (I don't see why everyone is in such a rush to get this guy in their line-up just because he got insanely lucky last week).