Playoff Strategies

[Seahawk]

Just trying to get some insight/gage as to what people do to prepare for their playoffs. I'm always interested in peoples different views as to how they go about setting up for there upcoming playoffs. Mistakes they've learnt, ideas they'll followed, things that haven't and have work for them in the passed and new approaches.

 

Such as

 

One Kicker or Two Kickers.

One or Two D/ST.

Having handuffs for their top 2 RBs.

Going with one QB or two.

Do you Role with a Back up Tight End.

 

etc

 

Thanks in advance and all views are Much Appreaciated.

Edited November 19, 2010 by Seahawk

[historymike]

1. Backups for TE and K - even the healthiest players can have a season-ending injury, and nothing is worse than looking at a preventable zero at playoff time. I do not pick up a second defense, though: I either land a strong defense and roll with it, or I go to the WW right before the playoffs and find one with favorable matchups in Weeks 14-16.

2. I like to have as many players as possible at the end of the FF regular season who are on a team fighting for a playoff berth. I try to avoid having players on teams at Week 13 (or whenever the FF playoffs start in a league) who have less than 5 wins. Obviously, a stud like Gore on a woeful SF team is still a must-own, but when I am making decisions about who is on my bench I look to teams heading to the playoffs: they play just a little bit harder, and they are more likely to play through nagging or minor injuries.

3. I try to enter the playoffs with as few injuries as possible, and by Weeks 10-11 I limit the number of injured players I keep on my team. For example, over the past two weeks I cut PT, DWIll (before the IR news), and Vince Young: I would much rather have a healthy bench player who can contribute if needed than to keep some injured slug on my team.

4. I evaluate strength of schedule for WW pickups in the second half of the year. By Week 8 there are definite patterns to the teams trending up and down, and S.O.S. is much easier to figure out than during the draft.

5. I scan the depth charts for rookies who might get some second half playing time. This might conflict with my dictum about avoiding teams that have been losing all season.

6. Even more than ever I read boards like this and keep my ears open for tidbits of news. I lost a Super Bowl once because of a last minute scratch of Matt Hasselbeck for Trent Dilfer, and had I been paying closer attention, I would have seen the rumblings that Holmgren might sit MH in Week 17 since the SeaChickens had a playoff spot locked in.

7. It never hurts to send a shout out to the Eight Pound, Six Ounce, Newborn Baby Jesus, in His golden, fleece diapers, with His curled-up, fat, balled-up little fists pawin' at the air ('sup, Ricky Bobby!).

8. I study trends in point scoring: I am a firm believer in the hot-hand theory, and players whose touches are going up are having success for a reason. Likewise, when I see a player's touches go down 2-3 straight weeks, I assume that this is part of a series of decisions made by the coaching staff of the team for which he plays.

9. I try to avoid putting too much weight on matchups, especially when a good WR faces a tough coverage defender. ASYS, and assume that over the long run your talented players are going to produce.

10. That being said, when playing a much tougher (on paper) opponent, go for the home run players whose upside might show up that week. I would much rather look like genius because I guessed correctly on a streaky high-risk player like Ryan Fitzpatrick than to get conservative with safe points from a guy like Josh Freeman. Conversely, if you are in a playoff match with a banged -up, cobbled together team that limped into the playoffs, don't get reckless: take Freeman's steady production and field the team most likely to produce the points you need for a healthy margin of victory.

[Slugs3511]

Don't sit your original team.....NO MATTER THE MATCHUP......Seriously...

 

I have been in fantasy football for 14 years now and it often seems that the people that win the championship, almost never change their lineup from the original they have going into the playoffs, even if they have better matchups with other players....

For example, last year I say Steve Smith, Carolina, in my semi final game....He was playing the Vikings in Minnesota....I picked up Antonio Bryant, a comeback player that was averaging about 15 points a game for the last two games...

He was playing a lesser opponent defensively so I sat Smith.....who I played every game last year except that one....

Needless to say, Bryant got me 10 total points and Steve Smith scored two TDs and had 100yds.....I would have been in the finals and assured myself of atleast a 2nd place finish which would have been a lot more money then I got in 3rd....

[MTSuper7]

Don't sit your original team.....NO MATTER THE MATCHUP......Seriously...

 

I have been in fantasy football for 14 years now and it often seems that the people that win the championship, almost never change their lineup from the original they have going into the playoffs, even if they have better matchups with other players....

For example, last year I say Steve Smith, Carolina, in my semi final game....He was playing the Vikings in Minnesota....I picked up Antonio Bryant, a comeback player that was averaging about 15 points a game for the last two games...

He was playing a lesser opponent defensively so I sat Smith.....who I played every game last year except that one....

Needless to say, Bryant got me 10 total points and Steve Smith scored two TDs and had 100yds.....I would have been in the finals and assured myself of atleast a 2nd place finish which would have been a lot more money then I got in 3rd....

 

I slightly disagree with this advice, in that the example above is of a proven WR with a tough matchup. Yeah, in that situation I'd agree to always start the guy who got you there. But that doesn't apply to running backs facing difficult matchups. I would argue that you are a fool for starting any but the most elite RBs against the Steeler defense (and probably the Jets and games played in Minnesota too) as long as you have a decent alternative option.

 

As for my other strategies, I usually eyeball the schedule well in advance of the playoffs to try to stash a team defense with favorable matchups. I usually carry two team defenses since it's tough to find just one with favorable matchups the entire fantasy playoffs. The Browns' defense actually looks like a very good pickup right now through week 15.

 

Always take a backup QB even if you have Peyton Manning because you never know... For that matter, you should back up all positions because you don't want to take a zero anywhere during the playoffs (even at kicker, though you could make the argument that there is such a small chance of injury with kickers compared to other positions that it's worth the risk). Of course, it also depends whether or not rosters are locked or if you can still make waiver moves during the playoffs. If you can, there's probably only garbage at TE out there anyway, so don't bother backing up TE or K. I'd stil recommend a QB backup though.

 

If you have RBs worth handcuffing, do it. But you should have done that all along anyway. I usually like to stash a couple RBs I think might do something in the fantasy playoffs, guys that probably aren't on the waiver wire but could be, but more often guys with low trade value (Ronnie Brown comes to mind). Of course, it all depends on where I'm strong and where I'm weak on my roster.

 

The only other thing I generally like to do is try to avoid non-elite QBs and WRs that have potential bad weather games during the fantasy playoffs. It won't be a critical decision, but I might try to swing a trade for a similar level player if I have a better feeling about their situation come playoff time. At the very least, I like to have a little depth so I can make a judgment call in bad weather situations. But I won't get cute with proven studs, and I generally will just play the matchups with non-stud RBs. Of course, the concept of what is or isn't a stud is relatively subjective, but most people agree on who they are.

Edited November 19, 2010 by MTSuper7

[Seahawk]

1. Backups for TE and K - even the healthiest players can have a season-ending injury, and nothing is worse than looking at a preventable zero at playoff time. I do not pick up a second defense, though: I either land a strong defense and roll with it, or I go to the WW right before the playoffs and find one with favorable matchups in Weeks 14-16.

2. I like to have as many players as possible at the end of the FF regular season who are on a team fighting for a playoff berth. I try to avoid having players on teams at Week 13 (or whenever the FF playoffs start in a league) who have less than 5 wins. Obviously, a stud like Gore on a woeful SF team is still a must-own, but when I am making decisions about who is on my bench I look to teams heading to the playoffs: they play just a little bit harder, and they are more likely to play through nagging or minor injuries.

3. I try to enter the playoffs with as few injuries as possible, and by Weeks 10-11 I limit the number of injured players I keep on my team. For example, over the past two weeks I cut PT, DWIll (before the IR news), and Vince Young: I would much rather have a healthy bench player who can contribute if needed than to keep some injured slug on my team.

4. I evaluate strength of schedule for WW pickups in the second half of the year. By Week 8 there are definite patterns to the teams trending up and down, and S.O.S. is much easier to figure out than during the draft.

5. I scan the depth charts for rookies who might get some second half playing time. This might conflict with my dictum about avoiding teams that have been losing all season.

6. Even more than ever I read boards like this and keep my ears open for tidbits of news. I lost a Super Bowl once because of a last minute scratch of Matt Hasselbeck for Trent Dilfer, and had I been paying closer attention, I would have seen the rumblings that Holmgren might sit MH in Week 17 since the SeaChickens had a playoff spot locked in.

7. It never hurts to send a shout out to the Eight Pound, Six Ounce, Newborn Baby Jesus, in His golden, fleece diapers, with His curled-up, fat, balled-up little fists pawin' at the air ('sup, Ricky Bobby!).

8. I study trends in point scoring: I am a firm believer in the hot-hand theory, and players whose touches are going up are having success for a reason. Likewise, when I see a player's touches go down 2-3 straight weeks, I assume that this is part of a series of decisions made by the coaching staff of the team for which he plays.

9. I try to avoid putting too much weight on matchups, especially when a good WR faces a tough coverage defender. ASYS, and assume that over the long run your talented players are going to produce.

10. That being said, when playing a much tougher (on paper) opponent, go for the home run players whose upside might show up that week. I would much rather look like genius because I guessed correctly on a streaky high-risk player like Ryan Fitzpatrick than to get conservative with safe points from a guy like Josh Freeman. Conversely, if you are in a playoff match with a banged -up, cobbled together team that limped into the playoffs, don't get reckless: take Freeman's steady production and field the team most likely to produce the points you need for a healthy margin of victory.

 

I was contemplating if I should post this thread or not. That post right there made it worth it in spades. Great Advice all around thanks.

 

Number #3 (getting ride of Injured players) ive been doing this since Week 8-9 but like an idiot a player came up on the WW that wet my appetite such as Beanie Wells whos done nothing this year. I do have another reason for adding him. My thinking is that he might be more likely or as likely to play this year over PT which ive been holding onto. Beanie schedule (DEN, CAR, DAL) through weeks 14-16 I like a whole lot more than Pierre Thomas STL, BAL, ATL which will now give me the ability to asset PT for this week and the next a drop if need be.

 

Question is would you sooner have Snelling over PT or Beanie or both. As my handcuff to Turner in the advent that he goes down over the other two. There isnt much available. Would you sooner has anybody here (Cadillac Williams, TB, Marcel Reece, Oak RB, Darren Sproles, SD, Marion Barber, Dal, Donald Brown, Ind, John Kuhn, GB RB, Mike Goodson, Car, Mike Hart, Ind, Mewelde Moore, Pit, Fred Taylor, NE, Anthony Dixon, SF)

over PT and Beanie.

 

Number # 5 what Rookies have shown you potential and could be a good fixture and solid WW pickup. Obviously Bryant has been great all year and has been taken since week one. any sleepers you'd suggest.

 

Number #9 not playing the matchup game and going with your best players. Ill have to keep this in mind. Sometimes I can over think this, good approach and good warning on Number #10.

Edited November 19, 2010 by Seahawk

[Slugs3511]

Hey Seahawk, great thread....

 

I play the S.O.S. too game....for example, the titans play the easiest schedule playing the texans twice in the next four to five weeks......so their players should be money.....

As for the positions, I tend to go with who is hot at the time.....I have hung on to MJD and Rice in two different leagues, needless to say I drafted rather well and have them coupled with players like AP, Wayne, Jennings, Harvin, Roddy, and DeSean Jackson, so.....the way I look at it, sitting at 7-3 overall in both leagues is a bonus for me considering their lack luster play early in the season....

Now, as their schedule is getting easier and they put up more TDs than in the first half of the season....

MJD 3 TDs after 8 weeks.....definately low....

Rice 2 TDs after 8 weeks.....same as above.....

 

What I am saying is their production above 3 TDs and 2 TDs in the next 5 weeks, weeks 11-16, will benefit me more if there is a drop off from another one of my other players....Make sense?

[Turf Smurf]

 

The real key is to start the players that score the most points.

[Avernus]

I always run with my regular lineup and own as few QB's as possible unless I have good talent there....but I will have as many good RB's as I can hold because they seem to go down like flies...

 

If you have a couple stud WR's, then you probably only need 4 WR's....and I'll keep 1 kicker the rest of the way..

 

the only part where I get funny is the D/ST, because I do so much match-up playing that I tend to fill out my roster with available D's that I think I can plug in down the stretch...

[Puddy]

I believe all my leagues allow waivers throughout the playoffs so I don't overly concern myself with backup kickers, TE's, etc...

 

I really liked historymike's response and have to admit I don't put THAT much thought into approaching the playoffs. I am a very active owner each week of the regular season and figure I am going into the playoffs with the best team I could construct throughout the year.

Edited November 20, 2010 by Puddy

[Crazysight]

You definitely want to look ahead for playoff matchups, especially as it pertains to the better players in the league and then try to acquire any of those players via trades. For example earlier this year I traded a future draft pick for Kyle Orton, and just last week I traded two future draft picks and Ryan Grant (dynasty league, obviously) for Lloyd and Moss. Denver plays Houston week 16 (tell me that's not a dream matchup) and Tennessee plays them the prior week. I also tried to trade a ton to get Darren McFadden who also has an easy schedule but the owner of him wouldn't give. I will likely play him week 15 and McFadden will be playing Denver who he blew up on last time in Denver for 4 TDs and 40+ points.

[Crazysight]

In IDP leagues you can get sneaky points by looking at stats for the opposition too. For example qbs who are most often sacked, and then find a DE or even OLB who is a quality pass rusher and play him in that game.

[satelliteoflovegm]

I try to have a kicker who finishes up his season in warm weather or a dome. Every year one game late in Denver, Buffalo, or Cleveland is in a wind or snow storm.

 

Sometimes I will sign my QB's back-up just as a disaster plan, like Sorgi back in the day. Always to avoid a zero.

 

Sometimes be aware of players going for milestones. Dallas Clark 100 catches. They might sit but after they get the milestone.

[McBoog]

The real key is to start the players that score the most points.

 

And win all your games through the championship .

[ts]

Some of these strategies will depend on your league's waiver rules, roster size or restrictions, etc, but ... I'm in 1 league where no waiver moves are permitted after NFL week 12, but team roster size is large enough that all FF teams should have had ample time by then to fill out depth at all positions ... anyways:

 

- I always make sure I have a backup PK ... and if my usual PK is on an outdoor/bad weather NFL team, I try to get a backup PK that plays for an indoor/good weather team

- depending on circumstances & how strong my depth is at other positions, I sometimes pick up a 2nd D/ST, if I do, I always try to find one that appears to have favorable match ups for the FF playoffs - just so I have an option

- for whatever reason, I generally end up with 1 or 2 WRs on my roster that are at best marginal FF players; maybe these guys only get in my starting lineup once all year, covering a bye week or something ... if I see some equally marginal WR on the waiver wire, but the WW player has a nice match up during 1 of the FF playoff weeks, I'll make the swap

 

There are a few other little things that I do during the early / middle parts of the NFL season with the FF playoffs in mind - ie, when considering a trade offer, I'll look at the situation of the players being offered - if 1 for example is on an NFL team likely to have clinched a playoff spot by the time the FF playoffs begin, I'll lower my own estimated FF value of that player a tad, just because his NFL team may decide to rest him later in the year, when I need him most.

[osu1322]

I try to have a kicker who finishes up his season in warm weather or a dome. Every year one game late in Denver, Buffalo, or Cleveland is in a wind or snow storm.

 

Sometimes I will sign my QB's back-up just as a disaster plan, like Sorgi back in the day. Always to avoid a zero.

 

Sometimes be aware of players going for milestones. Dallas Clark 100 catches. They might sit but after they get the milestone.

 

being from Cleveland I know what ur talking about. The wind off Lake Erie can be nasty late in the year. I'd also add Pittsburgh New York and Green Bay to that list. All of those stadiums are open and can have inclimate weather. If u can avoid these matchups I'd definatly do iit...

 

Also on that note I actaully watch the weather channel if I see a starter that might play in one of the staduims. I don't live anywhere near Denver so there could be a foot of snow there or sunny and 55 degrees. Information like this can help make decisions as to who to start due to weather.

 

@ the extra kicker / TE on the roster. I don't think u have to have them as long as ur able to use the WW in the playoffs. U can always pick up another kicker and TE. the problem is that they won't put up the numbers of ur starter.