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Chargers Update


McBoog
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The title is based on this :wacko: The author is very good about calling these things and you all should heed these words.

 

My take, knowing what I do of this team, coupled with the trends the last few weeks. Being a Monday night game, All these guys are risk plays except Rivers.

 

Tolbert is the only other must start this week against the Broncos 30th ranked rushing D. Denver cannot play 8 in the box against SD because Rives will dissect them if they do. They will pound Tolbert and try to shorten the game and open up play action (hello Tutu!). Denver can throw the ball and Turner prefers to avoid shootouts though he has the gun (Rivers) to do it. Turner is a big fan of play action, when it is working, and I think the Bolts can run freely on the Broncos. The Chargers run style is an even worse match for the Broncos because the D-line has had trouble getting off the ball and holding their turf. The fast hitting run ("bubble style") is perfect for Tolbert and I can see Hester taking up some good chunks up the gut on short yardage. I believe at least two, maybe three TDs against the Texans were play action. The game winner was an audible sending Tolbert in motion to Tutu's (Desmond's?) side to expose the coverage). Remember, for a bowling ball, Tolbert has soft hands and catches the ball well (as does Hester).

 

As well as Rivers spreads the ball (his understanding of the offense is uncanny), I think Gates probably sits again against a soft passing D and they let Rivers do his magic as he has done for the last few weeks. They need him more for the game in Indy the following week and I see them resting him one more game (I am not starting him). There are no blue chip starts in this offense outside of Rivers and Tolbert.

 

I see Hester and McMicheal getting looks again in Gates' absence, but not enough to rely on. Either of these guys could get a TD (or neither).

 

Floyd's hammy was tight on Friday after a full week of work and he is now not practicing and back in the training room for the next few days until game time. I expect both will play, but could be limited and even sat if they get up and can protect the lead on the ground. If Floyd plays, he will most likely draw Champ and the Broncos will not be playing prevent the whole game like they did last week, further limiting his numbers (though VJax caught lots of balls on Champ last year and Rivers is not afraid to throw at him). Naanee, said he is "thumbs up", but has also been limited in practice with a hammy and both face a potential "rust factor", especially with the pressure of MNF. If either of these two are good for the whole game, that will be HUGH just to take the attention away from Crayton and Tutu.

 

Sproles will get his 4-5 runs and 3-5 screens. This could be anywhere between 3 and 18 points. :tup: I have not seen the same Sproles this year. There is something missing both in his return game and at the LOS. There are a few plays where you see the burst, but I think he is gone next year and he knows it.

 

This leaves the same cast of characters from the last few weeks. Crayton has been solid and is Rivers 3rd down guy while the others are gone. He has been sneaky good between the stripes and Rivers has learned his adjustment tendencies and are hooking up better every week. Here is your most "solid play" out of this corps. He has been more of the "possession WR" type, but should be a decent play in PPR leagues. He seems to turn one catch a game into a 30+ gain.

 

Tutu is also a good FLEX or WR 3 play and could be gold, or lead. He will be used to stretch the field and clear it out underneath for Tolbert/McMichael/Sproles/Hester and maybe Wilson. Rivers throws as good a long ball in The League, and if he is open, Rivers will take his shots down field (3-5 catches for 70+). Rivers comfort level with Tutu and Crayton is "there" now and his performance shows that he can make just about any WR look good.

 

Banks is clearly bench fodder (watch him bust out in some mad, Turner twist this week and make me look stoooopider than I already am :lol: ). If this turns into a shootout, then all bets are off and any of these guys (if not all) are worth a flyer. MNF is already touting this game as an air show and are dreaming of a FF wet dream.

 

I think the game comes down to who has the best defense, and that belongs to the Chargers. Believe it or not, the Bolt's D is better (top 5 or so) in third and short than they are in third and long (bottom half) :tup: . I don't think the Broncos get the yards they need on the ground to keep the D honest and will have to play catch up at some point.

 

The biggest wild card to this game remains the Charger's ST. IF they don't put the team in a hole, again, this should be a comfortable win, at home, for the Bolts.

 

SD 30 / DN 17

 

Forecast has the possibility of rain, though more of a chance early in the day.

Edited by McBoog
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RotoWire Update Recommendation

SD 11/20/2010 Mathews (ankle) did not practice Saturday and is listed as doubtful for Monday night's game against Denver, the San Diego Union-Tribune's Kevin Acee reports. In the words of coach Norv Tuner, Mathews needed to improve "dramatically" by Saturday to have a chance to play, and the doubtful designation indicates that the necessary improvement didn't happen. Matt Tolbert will handle the rushing load for San Diego.

 

Mathews update.

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Updated from SDUT. :wacko:

 

If Gates is running, he'll play. This news has me now thinking about plugging him back in. He is a warrior! This only opens things up for the WRs.

 

IMO Naanee is not going to play, nor Mathews.

 

Floyd will probably play but will have his snaps limited (and probably Gates). I see Clayton as still a good start, and Tutu could still be relevant on the deep ball. The Broncos have given up more than any team and Rivers is as good as anyone at throwing them. I see Tutu getting a few deep targets and maybe a touch.

 

Denver has been even better (statically) with the long game, but the big difference here is the defenses. Denver has scorched and been scorched deep, where the Boltz are one of the best units against the long pass (except on third down :tup: ).

 

I like my prediction even better now.

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Thanks for the great writeup and thoughts. I will no longer be plugging Crayton in my lineup, as he's had several chances and done next to nothing with them, costing me a couple of games by sitting other people assuming he would do well (example: Texans). I agree with your analysis, but I just can't give him any more love, personally. Good luck, Charger fans.

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according to gates twitter, he likely won't play and is not any better. I think he sits and may not play another game until the playoffs

ifthey make it

 

 

Really? Where did you see that?

 

http://twitter.com/#!/AntonioGates85

:wacko:

evidently he overlooked the date on that one tweet

 

Gates Tweet: "Not sure if I'm playing or not taking it one day at a time"

the date on that tweet, Friday, November FOURTH...which means it was in reference to week NINE

 

ttwarrior if you are going to post stuff like that you need to use due diligence as well as post the link

Edited by keggerz
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