Looking for homers

[detlef]

I'm sure some of you know about my theory on the draft and that I did a bit of a study on the efficacy of leveling the playing field as it is intended to do. I have my doubts and attempted to do my own evaluation of how players picked in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd 1/3s of the 1st round panned out.

 

My hypothesis is that high 1st round picks simply do not pan out at a rate higher enough than other parts of the round.

 

What needs to be determined:

 

First and foremost, how successful players have been.

Secondly, what an average salary looks like depending on where players are selected.

 

I thought what may have been a major flaw in my initial study was the fact that I don't follow all these teams closely enough to fairly evaluate all the players. I mean, I know that AP is a stud and Matt Leinart has been a bust. But not whether some dude picked at DT by KC has been decent, good, or a fixture in the starting line-up. That's where the homers come in.

 

So, I'm looking for guys who are willing to look at the 1st round picks their team has made over the last 7 years and evaluate each of the players on a scale of 1-10. It's OK if I get more than 1 homer per team. Go ahead and weigh the ratings based on how long they've been around. Sam Bradford, for instance, should get a reasonably high grade because of how he's looked for a rookie on a team that was crap last year. However, if he was getting the results and stats he's getting this year and he was in his 5th year, maybe not so much. Sanchez should be a 9 or 10 for the same reasons.

 

Also, rate the player based on how they did for your team. If a player is on his 2nd contract and got paid big time, that should be all the evidence you need to make him at least an 8. Even if he's not on your team. If a guy sucked ass for your team and finally got his act together for someone else (see Ced Benson), you should treat him like a bust. Because, as far as your concerned, he sucked.

 

If the guy had flashes but was always getting in trouble and missing games, he should be docked. This means an ATL homer ranking Vick should temper the fact that he got you guys a play-off win and put some butts in the seats with the fact that you lost him in his prime to a jail term.

 

If you simply don't have an opinion on a guy, just say so. NFL.com lists how many games they played and how many of those games they started. I'll just go by that in these cases and come up with a ballpark number for them.

 

All in all, it shouldn't be too much work. You're just looking up 7 or so players.

 

I'll obviously do the heavy lifting in terms of putting it all together.

[i_am_the_swammi]

I'll do the Iggles for you....I'll edit this post. Other homers feel free to chime in.

[peteteacher2001]

I'll do the Rams for ya Det! No problem!

Edited December 1, 2010 by peteteacher2001

[TitansFan]

2004

No Pick

2005

1.06 Pacman Jones: 3

2006

1.03 Vince Young: 5

2007

1.19 Michael Griffin: 8

2008

1.24 Chris Johnson: 10

2009

1.30 Kenny Britt: 7

2010

1.16 Derrick Morgan: N/A (tore ACL in week 4)

 

 

Is this what you're looking for, or would you like it in a different format or something?

[osu1322]

Cleveland Browns

 

2010 Joe Haden (CB) - I have to give him a 8 out of 10. He has come in day 1 and filled a void the Bronws needed.

 

2009 Alex Mac © - Started from day 1 and after a shaky start has paved the way for Harrison and now Hillis. 8 of 10

 

2008 no 1st rd draft pick

 

2007 Joe Thomas (OT) - was the Browns starting to create a O line that didn't suck and was the first piece to the puzzle. 7 of 10

Brady Quinn (QB) - was expected to be the savoir of the franchise... He got beat up and shipped off 3 of 10

 

2006 Kamerion Wimbley (LB)- After a great rookie campain basically fell by the wayside his second year and got shipped to Oak 4 of 10

 

2005 Braylon Edwards (WR) - due to a couple injuries and contract negocations he didn't have a true break out season til 2007. Then got into problems with the law and got traded to the Jets where he's excellenced. 5 of 10

 

2004 Kellen Winslow II- between injuries and motorcycles accidents he just never seemed healthy... He did make the Pro Bowl cause Gates couldn't make it one year but after an infection and fight with Browns GM he got traded to TB 5 of 10

 

2003 Jeff Faine © - was picked to start build the O line and just didn't work out. He was traded for a draft pick... 2 of 10

 

2002 William Green (RB)- Possible the biggest bust for Cle. He had a great rookie year but a DUI, fight before a Steelers game in 2006 he was placed on IR at the end of training camp and hasn't made a Pro football roster sense... 1 of 10

 

 

That basically cover the Browns for the past 9 or 10 years.... The last couple drafts have been high quality picks. Heck even the 2007 draft taking Joe Thomas was a great pick and the gamble on Quinn didn't pay off. That was a turnning point for the Browns. They have made great use of their draft picks and trades (Quinn for Hillis and draft picks anyone???)

Edited December 1, 2010 by osu1322

[detlef]

2004

No Pick

2005

1.06 Pacman Jones: 3

2006

1.03 Vince Young: 5

2007

1.19 Michael Griffin: 8

2008

1.24 Chris Johnson: 10

2009

1.30 Kenny Britt: 7

2010

1.16 Derrick Morgan: N/A (tore ACL in week 4)

 

 

Is this what you're looking for, or would you like it in a different format or something?

Nope, that'll do.

 

Also, while I'm thinking of it, one thing that needs to be added. Do not weight the rankings based on where they were taken. A guy who gets taken #1 overall should not be held do a different standard than a guy who was taken 30th. Just evaluate how good they've been as a pro.

[Menudo]

Steelers

 

2004

1.11: Ben Roethlisberger = 9.5 (2 Super Bowl Wins, Broke Some Rookie Records, 2nd Best Win % Of Active QB's)

 

2005

1.30: Heath Miller = 8.0 (Very under-rated TE. Good reciever, but, a fantastic blocker)

 

2006

1.25: Santonio Holmes = 8.5 (Made a lot of big-time plays for this team in the clutch. Super Bowl MVP)

 

2007

1.15: Lawrence Timmons = 8.0 (Started a bit slow, but, has emerged as a phenomenal LB over the last year and a half)

 

2008

1.23: Rashard Mendenhall = 8.5 (Started a bit slow, but, has emerged as a very good NFL RB)

 

2009

1.32: Ziggy Hood = 6.0 (Only starting due to injury to Aaron Smith. Lacks consistency)

 

2010

1.18: Maurkice Pouncey = 9.0 (Is the most consistent o-lineman on the Steelers as a Rookie. Potential is through the roof)

[Chief Dick]

I'll take a shot later. I'm sure muck will as well.

[keggerz]

Cleveland Browns

 

 

2007 Joe Thomas (OT) - was the Browns starting to create a O line that didn't suck and was the first piece to the puzzle. 7 of 10

Not a homer but I just don't get this one, 7 of 10?

[Phazool]

JETS

 

 

2004 1.12 Jonathan Vilma LB - 7

 

2005 No draft pick

 

2006 1.4 D'Brickashaw Ferguson T - 7

1.29 Nick Mangold C - 10

 

2007 1.14 Darrelle Revis CB - 10

 

2008 1.6 Vernon Gholston DE - 0

1.30 Dustin Keller TE - 6

 

2009 1.5 Mark Sanchez QB - 8

 

2010 1.29 Kyle Wilson CB - 3

Edited December 2, 2010 by Phazool

[jetsfan]

JETS

 

 

2004 1.12 Jonathan Vilma LB - 7

 

2005 No draft pick

 

2006 1.4 D'Brickashaw Ferguson T - 7

1.29 Nick Mangold C - 10

 

2007 1.14 Darrelle Revis CB - 10

 

2008 1.6 Vernon Gholston DE - 0

1.30 Dustin Keller TE - 6

 

2009 1.5 Mark Sanchez QB - 8

 

2010 1.29 Kyle Wilson CB - 3

 

I agree with these with the following exceptions.

I would've rated Vilma a little higher, maybe an 8. He has been dominant at his position and a very good on-field general.

I also think it is too early to judge Wilson. However, to grade his impact today, I think a 3 is fair.

[Balzac]

Pats:

 

2004 Wilfork - 9; Watson - 5

 

2005 Mankins - 8.5

 

2006 Maroney - 4

 

2007 Meriweather - 5

 

2008 Mayo - 8

 

2009 N/A

 

2010 McCourty - 7

 

This was admittedly kinda hard to do. Overall, I think the Pats have done pretty well. They certainly whiffed a bit Maroney, but I think he might've fared better had he been on another team that featured a single-back style a little more. I don't like Meriweather, so maybe my view is tainted there a bit. Watson wasn't used correctly, IMO - I still think he's an immense talent but TEs are a dime a dozen in the Pats system. I'd like to rank McCourty higher but I guess the jury is still out on him - love what I've seen thus far though.

Edited December 2, 2010 by Balzac

[Phazool]

I agree with these with the following exceptions.

I would've rated Vilma a little higher, maybe an 8. He has been dominant at his position and a very good on-field general.

I also think it is too early to judge Wilson. However, to grade his impact today, I think a 3 is fair.

 

 

I based it on what was asked which was how he played for the Jets. If you are considering his performance for the Saints, then I agree with an 8

 

I also agree that it is still too early to judge wilson, but up till now, he gets a 3 and that's generous.

[keggerz]

I based it on what was asked which was how he played for the Jets. If you are considering his performance for the Saints, then I agree with an 8

 

I also agree that it is still too early to judge wilson, but up till now, he gets a 3 and that's generous.

Also hard to grade Vilma because he was drafted to play MLB for the Jets and he did that very well...then they changed schemes and he wasn't a good fit for it.

Edited December 2, 2010 by keggerz

[Moss6]

MN Vikings

 

2004:

1:20 Kenechi Udeze = 6.5 (for the short time he did play, he had talent, struck with career ending leukemia)

 

2005:

1:07 Troy Williams = .0005

1:18 Erasmus James = 3.5 (never really got going - medically short career)

 

2006:

1:17 Chad Greenway = 8.0 (solid)

 

2007:

1:07 Adrian Peterson = 10.0

 

2008:

No pick

 

2009:

1:22 Percy Harvin = 9.0 (Exciting, solid with room to improve)

 

2010:

No pick

[STL Fan]

I'll do the Rams for ya Det! No problem!

 

I'll save you some time, Pete. They're all 2's until you get to Bradford.

[Zooty]

Eagles

 

2004 Shawn Andrews - 7 played at a Pro-Bowl level for a couple years till he went nuts

 

2005 Mike Patterson - 8 solid starter at a hard to find position

 

2006 Brodrick Bunkley -7 good starter, same as Patterson, lost his job this year

 

2007 No pick [r]

 

2008 No pick

 

2009 Jeremy Maclin - 8 developing into a pretty good WR

 

2010 Brandon Graham - 6 for now, he gets on the field which is better than picks before '04

 

although judging by some other team's homer grades you should add 1 point to all of them

Edited December 2, 2010 by Zooty

[lkirc]

I started to do this for the Lions, but I got too depressed.....someone with less emotional involvement will have to handle it.

[kingfish247]

Falcons

 

2004: Deangelo Hall, 5; Michael Jenkins, 4

2005: Roddy White, 10

2006: No pick

2007: Jamaal Anderson, 4

2008: Matt Ryan, 9; Sam Baker, 6

2009: Peria Jerry, 2

2010: Sean Weatherspoon, 7

[Chief Dick]

2003 Larry Johnson 9

2004 No selection

2005 Derrick Johnson 6

2006 Tamba Hali 7

2007 Dwayne Bowe 7

2008 Glenn Dorsey 6

Branden Albert 6

2009 Tyson Jackson 1

2010 Eric Berry Tennessee 4

 

From 2005 on, with the exception of Tyson Jackson, these could all be nines the way they are progressing this year.

[i_am_the_swammi]

Eagles

 

2004 Shawn Andrews - 7 played at a Pro-Bowl level for a couple years till he went nuts

2005 Mike Patterson - 8 solid starter at a hard to find position

2006 Brodrick Bunkley -7 good starter, same as Patterson, lost his job this year

2007 No pick [r]

2008 No pick

2009 Jeremy Maclin - 8 developing into a pretty good WR

2010 Brandon Graham - 6 for now, he gets on the field which is better than picks before '04

 

I'll echo most of these grades, with the exceptions:

 

Bunkley, IMO, was a borderline-pick. He was second-string his rookie year. He started 2007-2009, and now is lost for the year with an injury. He came into Philly with Miami-pedigree, high expectations....and he never overachieved. I'd grade him out at a 5, at best.

 

I'd bump Maclin to a 9 at this point. Starting WR, perhaps the best WR2 in football.

[countrychuck]

I'll handle the Leo's for you Ikirc...living in MI unfortunately I see enough of Detroit

 

 

Detroit Lions - NO NFL team has had a worse draft the last 7-10 years. Of the Lions' EIGHT 1st round picks from 2000-2006, only 1 (Jeff Backus) is still on the team. Ahh, the Matt Millen Era. Good times!!

 

 

2004

 

Roy Williams (WR) - 3 (got worse each year. Side note: Detroit absolutely fleeced Dallas trading Roy for a #1 pick)

 

Kevin Jones (RB) - 2 (very good rookie year - couldn't stay healthy)

 

 

2005

 

Mike Williams (WR) - ZERO!

 

 

 

2006

 

Ernie Sims (LB) - 4 (Athletically gifted, but played out of control. Flashed brilliance at times, never did it consistently)

 

 

2007

 

Calvin Johnson (WR) - 10 (Freak. If he only had a healthy QB to build a nice rapport with. Yes, I'm talking to you Matthew Stafford)

 

 

2008

 

Gosder Cherilus (OT) - 3 (supposed top run blocker coming in from BC. Lions OL couldn't open a hole Gumby could squeeze through. I realize Gosder is only 20% responsible for this but he hasn't shown anything that remotely resembles a "top" run blocker)

 

 

2009

 

Matt Stafford (QB) - 4 (can't stay healthy)

 

Brandon Pettigrew (TE) - 5 (starting to produce this year, did nothing last year)

 

 

2010

 

Ndamakong Suh (DT) - 10 (arguably one of the the best DT in the game as a rookie)

 

Jhavid Best (RB) - 3 (2 very good games early, but now injured. Health was biggest concern coming into the NFL. Fragile Fred Taylor part deux?)

 

 

 

BONUS GRADES!! (2000-2003)

 

 

 

2003

 

Charles Rogers (WR) - 1 (GREAT rookie year until breaking collar bone (twice) Then he decided smoking dope with his homies was a better way to spend his off seasons instead of rehabbing the shoulder. ANY other team would've picked Andre Johnson here but Chuck was a local kid (high school & college)

 

 

2002

 

Joey Harrington (QB) - 2 (Absolutely abused by opposing defenses playing behind a pathetic OL)

 

 

2001

 

Jeff Backus (OT) - 7 (for as much heat Backus takes from local media & "fans" he's not terrible by any means.

 

 

2000

 

Stockar McDougle (OT) - 1 (Ummm, he was better than Aaron Gibson!!)

[countrychuck]

Tampa Bay Bucs

 

 

 

2004

 

Michael Clayton (WR) - 2 (OUTSTANDING rookie season. Fell off the map after that 1 magical season)

 

 

 

2005

 

Caddilac Williams (RB) - 7 (unfortunate two brutal knee injuries derailed what seemed to be a promising career. Oh what might have been...)

 

 

 

2006

 

Davin Joseph (OG) - 6 (Inconsistent, but not giving up on him yet. Suffered season-ending injury 2 weeks ago)

 

 

 

2007

 

Gaines Adams (DE) - 3 (Tragic he passed away. Would have been nice to see if Marinelli couldda coached him up in Chicago. Never developed into top DE he was drafted to be while in Tampa)

 

 

 

2008

 

Aqib Talib (CB) - 8 (After a shaky couple years he's now slowly developing into a top CB)

 

 

 

2009

 

Josh Freeman (QB) - 10 (Growing pains his rookie year, but is everything Bucs fans could've hoped for in a 1st round QB. Tampa is nowhere near 7-4 w/o Freeman. 2-9 or 3-8 maybe?)

 

 

 

2010

 

Gerald McCoy (DT) - 8 (Having a very solid rookie year after a slow start. If he continues to put in the offseason/film work he could very well turn into a 10)

[polksalet]

Steelers

 

2004

1.11: Ben Roethlisberger = 9.5 (2 Super Bowl Wins, Broke Some Rookie Records, 2nd Best Win % Of Active QB's)

 

I'm going 10 here. He wins a lot more than nearly anyone else behind a marginal oline and average at best wrs.

 

2005

1.30: Heath Miller = 8.0 (Very under-rated TE. Good reciever, but, a fantastic blocker)

 

agreed

 

2006

1.25: Santonio Holmes = 8.5 (Made a lot of big-time plays for this team in the clutch. Super Bowl MVP)

 

8 only because he is nuts and was ran off

 

2007

1.15: Lawrence Timmons = 8.0 (Started a bit slow, but, has emerged as a phenomenal LB over the last year and a half)

 

I'm going 9 here. You couldn't expect much more.

 

2008

1.23: Rashard Mendenhall = 8.5 (Started a bit slow, but, has emerged as a very good NFL RB)

 

9.5 here. He has had great production behind a marginal line.

 

2009

1.32: Ziggy Hood = 6.0 (Only starting due to injury to Aaron Smith. Lacks consistency)

 

4, I wasn't impressed in college, draft day, or after watching him in the league.

 

2010

1.18: Maurkice Pouncey = 9.0 (Is the most consistent o-lineman on the Steelers as a Rookie. Potential is through the roof)

 

I'm going 6. I know that seems incredibly low but I think he only looks so good because he plays with a bunch of bums. That being said a 6 is still good for a late first round pick. I think he was the correct pick and will have a long and good career.

[Menudo]

I'm going 6. I know that seems incredibly low but I think he only looks so good because he plays with a bunch of bums. That being said a 6 is still good for a late first round pick. I think he was the correct pick and will have a long and good career.

 

6 for who ?