Thoughts on Waiver Wire Activism versus Laissez Faire Managing

[historymike]

I was looking over one of my leagues and I saw an interesting dichotomy: The first place team is currently 9-3, and over the course of the year this owner has made exactly 4 roster moves. This despite the fact that he has steadfastly held onto injured/marginal players like Beanie Wells, Cadillac Williams, and Eddie Royal.

 

I am in second place, a half-game behind at 8-3-1, and to date I have made 58 roster moves. Admittedly I am something of a waiver wire wheeler-dealer, especially in leagues without a WW fee. Still, the disparity between the two teams is very interesting: while the first place team is strong (Megatron, Chris Johnson, Wallace, and Hillis as its core) it is not dominating, and yet the patient owner has won 3/4 of his games. My core team is also strong but not dominant (Foster, AJ, McCoy are the studs) yet for all my waiver wire mania I am still in roughly the same spot I have been most of the year, which is right behind the league leader.

 

This is a fairly competitive league, though not the most competitive I am in. Two extremes in roster move philosophies, yet only a half-game separates us.

 

Anyways, just interested in hearing any thoughts about the successes/failures of the "activist" waiver wire owner versus the more conservative approach of fielding a good team and trying not to mess with it too much.

[Zooty]

IME people with minimal tend to do badly. Occasionally if there are no injures on their squad and they can "set it and forget it" they do OK.

 

In my redrafts these are the disivion ranking with waiver moves

 

League 1

 

Record- moves

Div A

8-4 23

7-5 18

7-5 12

7-5 19

 

Div c

7-5 32

7-5 6

5-7 0

3-9 5

 

Div C

8-4 11

6-6 13

6-6 7

1-11 1

 

 

League 2

Div A

7-4-1 27

7-5 26

6-6 25

5-7 18

3-9 3

 

Div B

9-3 22

7-4-1 27

6-6 14

6-6 17

3-9 7

[osu1322]

i'm not sayin it is harder to win with ur starting line up but the more moves u make is usuallly based upon injury (which this season has had injuries galore) When things like that happen u have to make roster move to keep ur team competitive. It is also a hard to deside if u should keep an injuried player or open up a roster spot because u don't think they will produce.

[detlef]

Think of it like day trading vs buy and hold. Depending on who is doing it, either can work. The advantage of being very active means you have more chances to land the guys who blossom after not being drafted. On the other hand, it could also mean that you cut bait on guys too early.

 

It seems that every year there are 1st half guys and 2nd half guys. Let's say everyone has some of both. If you make no moves, you could ride the guys who start fast and then move the late bloomers into the line-up as the others fade. On the other hand, if you're antsy and cut the slow starters in favor of more fast starters, you could fade down the stretch when all your 1st half guys hit a wall and all the 2nd half guys that you drafted but waived are now on another team.

 

Mind you, if you're super active, you can get those guys back. And that may explain your current situation.

 

Of course, on the other hand, the two last place guys could be in the same situation that you two are in. One sucks because he refuses to make any moves to improve his crappy team. The other sucks because he keeps making moves and chasing after one week wonders who never put in another good game.

[loaf]

micro managing is one of my pet peeves. Dudes that make 50 moves in a season? Chasing the down the guy that just scored? ridiculous. to a point. Law of averages say that one of those 50 moves will pan out but man it's like tossing darts with a blindfold on.

[historymike]

micro managing is one of my pet peeves. Dudes that make 50 moves in a season? Chasing the down the guy that just scored? ridiculous. to a point. Law of averages say that one of those 50 moves will pan out but man it's like tossing darts with a blindfold on.

Heh - I am on pace for 60 moves in the league I referenced above. In my big money league I am at 44 moves, and in my other Yahoo! league I am at 26 moves. In my defense I will add that the first two leagues have been injury nightmares, but I suspect on average I make 30-40 moves per year per league.

 

I spend less time chasing one-week wonders than I do switching out kickers, TEs, and defenses based on matchups, though. I generally pick a kicker and defense near the end of the draft, figuring there will always be WW options and unexpected fantsay surprises throughout the year.

 

Of course, in leagues with a cash WW fee, I am a bit more restrained.

[bostonsoxandy]

In my main league i've made 30 ww pick-ups and 1 trade...I think its hard to IMPROVE your team if you don't consistently overturn the lower half of your bench....right now from the WW that I have on my roster:

lance moore, malcom floyd, Bears D/ST, Dan Carpenter, nate washington, jacob tamme, mike goodson, ben obamanu, and maurice morris. and chris johnson via trade.

 

so basically i think that if you consistently drop and add players who have the potential to be big, you will do much better than sittin on persay, Ryan Matthews, ryan torain, and cadillac williams...even with 30 acq. i still mised out on hillis, steve johnson, lloyd, gates (he was dropped last week, in waiver order im 10/10), and westbrook....

Edited December 4, 2010 by bostonsoxandy

[Qball86]

I don't think most owners go into a season with the decision to make a ton of moves or not(although some usually make more or less than others). I think its more a product of a) how well you draft, injuries and c) players that play over/under their pre-season rankings and lastly how long those owners stay interested. I got lucky in one local in that I not only landed Foster in round 5, but also have not had a player drafted in the first 10/12 rounds miss even one week due to injury yet. I am 9-3 and secured a first round bye with 15 ww moves. 3 were late-round draft sleepers that never woke up and 3 more were for bye weeks at positions I don't keep backups for, TE/K/DST. I also just made two more of those a pre-playoff handcuff picks for my starting RBs.

 

I just think the number of transactions you make is in part due to things other than just a penchant for the wire. There are exceptions to the rule though.

 

eta: I'm not sure how the little smilly face dude got in my post, should be "b" there.

Edited December 4, 2010 by Qball86

[lennykravitz2004]

I think its hard to IMPROVE your team if you don't consistently overturn the lower half of your bench

 

My thoughts exactly. It's no different than an NFL HC doing the same thing when they "bring a guy in". Who knows what'll happen? If you have a guy, or several, who haven't sniffed your starting lineup, what's being lost or gained by keeping him on your roster? IMHO, I think many FF players (including me at the top of the list here) get fraidy-cat that as soon as they drop somebody, that guy's going to have a career game/stretch of games. We're all looking for Drew Bennett and/or Billy Volek circa 2004, but we're all afraid we're going to drop them too. Personally, working the WW is one of my favorite things to do each year. Absolutely love it. But then again, I'm a dice-roller by nature.

[wolfer]

I look at it in 2 ways.

 

1) the general health of your roster. We have one guy who has made maybe 7 moves all year and simply rides Hillis and Foster to victory every week. Lucky him. But you can imagine what the Deangelo/PT/Addai owner is going thru every week.

 

2) How good is your core. As boston said, you'll tend to tinker more with finding that key RB3 (tolbert) or WR3 (james jones) for a stretch run and ride the players who got you there. And as Loaf points out it could take a bazillion moves to find the gem--heck you probably dropped the gem in your obsession to find another gem.

 

You can always set rules to have a maximum number of moves, or have 1000 points to spend, or whatever. Personally I tend to find the 'tinkerers' find ways to eek out a few more points every week but they also tend to drop good players way too often.

[loaf]

It's an absolute necessity, no doubt about it. It's the folks that make 5 moves a week that get under my skin.

[ffb]

I'm almost like Mike. The first place guy has made only 6 moves this year and all in the first week. He pretty much only has Foster, McCoy and White but has been the luckiest guy this year with no big injury hits but most of all when playing a guy he should lose too, the opponent's players have a really bad game and/or Foster and White go off!

 

It's my first time playing and took over my cousin's team who only played so there would be an even league of 8. To date, I have 47 Add/Drops and 8 trades and sit in second place. I'm hooked and will definitely play again but it's so frustrating. I've come to accept that this game is almost totally luck.

Edited December 4, 2010 by ffb

[historymike]

I'm almost like Mike. The first place guy has made only 6 moves this year and all in the first week. He pretty much only has Foster, McCoy and White but has been the luckiest guy this year with no big injury hits but most of all when playing a guy he should lose too, the opponent's players have a really bad game and/or Foster and White go off!

 

It's my first time playing and took over my cousin's team who only played so there would be an even league of 8. To date, I have 47 Add/Drops and 8 trades and sit in second place. I'm hooked and will definitely play again but it's so frustrating. I've come to accept that this game is almost totally luck.

Yes, lots of luck in this game, especially in setting lineups. I follow the NFL closely and yet I regularly field teams in which my bench threatens to outscore my starters. Also, even the best prognosticators cannot predict injuries, sudden storms, or games in which a run-oriented offense suddenly finds itself down by three scores and must pass (or, conversely, when a high-scoring offense gets a couple of quick TDs and rides a previously underused RB in the fourth quarter of a blowout).

 

Or how about when a team scores a couple of special teams TDs, thereby leaving the offense on the bench a few extra series? THAT is one of the most frustrating factors I as an owner struggle with, unless of course I am starting that DEF/ST squad.

[Delicious_bass]

I have seen owners who do well with both extremes. Some are very patient and trust the players they draft/auction will perform(even if they start slow) and others seem like they arent happy unless they are making moves. I think most people fall somewhere in the middle and (depending on necessity) that's probably the place to be more often than not, IMO.

 

I probably identify more closely with the former than the latter. I tend to hang on to the players I have drafted (too long (in some cases)) rather than chase the flavor of the week in FA. That said, I have never personally drafted/auctioned a team that didnt need help along the way so it is critical to be able to identify the FAs that will really help verses the ones who may have just had an anomaly of a week and will return to obscurity soon after...

[ttwarrior4]

1st place team in my biggest league has

p hillis, a foster at rb, rivers at qb, jets at d, gates, tammme, jennings, bowe, r white so he hasnt' had to make 3 moves all year

[historymike]

1st place team in my biggest league has

p hillis, a foster at rb, rivers at qb, jets at d, gates, tammme, jennings, bowe, r white so he hasnt' had to make 3 moves all year

My God - this team is probably unbeatable if those players stay healthy. I am not sure I could cherry-pick a squad from the rest of the NFL that could out-perform that talented crew.