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Broncos, Raiders, Chargers, Skins, and Cardinal Fans


detlef
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I'm working on a study and am just missing evaluations on 10 teams 1st round draft picks since 2004. In the "Looking For Homers" thread, I got the other 22 covered but went ahead and got the ball rolling on those teams not claimed. The scores listed are merely thoughts based on starts and stats and I'm looking for true fans of the teams to edit them as needed. Grade them on a the following scale:

 

10 Absolute stud. Best 1-2 players in the league at their position

9 Always in the conversation as top 5 or so at position

8 Locked down position has made a pro bowl or two at least

7 Reliable starter but not necc thought of as one of the pillars of the team

6 Most of career as a starter but it's not like the team would ignore the position in coming drafts

5 Very much average. Special team and part time starter

4 Below average. Like 5 only not as good

3 Hanging on to a roster spot. Or a rook or 2nd year player who simply hasn't done jack

2 Had a few OK years but is quite likely out of the game

1 Essentially a bust

0 Colossal bust

 

Things to consider. The younger the player, the more benefit of the doubt. A guy like Sam Bradford certainly gets an extra point considering what he's doing as a rookie on a team that sucked last year.

 

Injuries. If a guy has yet to even see the field yet, just don't grade him. If he was good before he got badly hurt, then grade him what you would have and maybe a .5 pt down. If he never really did jack and then ended his career with an injury, again, rate him basically a bust.

 

So, the teams:

 

Skins

2004 Sean Taylor 8 Career starter until his murder

2005 Carlos Rogers 7 Has basically started every healthy game after rookie season

2005 Jason Campbell 6 On second team already and not exactly for good reasons

2006 no pick

2007 LaRon Landry 7.5 Career starter who gets his share of tackles

2008 no pick

2009 Brian Orakpo 8.5 Effective pass rusher right from the beginning of his career

2010 Trent Williams 7.5 Has started every game at Tackle. Not sure if he's any good though

 

Chargers

2004 Phillip Rivers 9

2005 Sean Merriman 7? Dominant when he was on roids but...

2006 Antonio Cromartie 7 If he was truly great, he'd still be a Charger?

2007 Craig Davis 3?

2008 Antoine Cason 5?

2009 Larry English 3?

2010 Ryan Mathews 4?

 

AZ

2004 Larry Fitz 10 stud

2005 Antrel Rolle 8 after a nice set of years with AZ, NYG made him one of the highest paid safeties

2006 Matt Leinart 1 dud

2007 Levi Brown 7.5 appears solid enough

2008 Dom Rogers-Cromartie

2009 Beenie Wells 5 not exactly lighting it up

2010 Dan Williams

 

Raiders

2004 Robert Gallery I could swear people have called him a bit of a bust but he's started all but 1 game in his career. 7?

2005 Fabian Washington 5 has seemed like an on again-off again starter now on his 2nd team

2006 Michael Huff 6.5 Seems like a solid but not super impressive starter

2007 JaMarcus Russel 0 bust

2008 Daren McFadden 5.5 finally producing (but not exactly tearing it up) after two very lack luster years

2009 Darius Heyward Bey 4 The good news is that he's started almost every game he's been healthy for. The bad news is he has 28 career receptions in 20 games

2010 Rolando McClain 6.5? Starting and making tackles but not lighting the world on fire.

 

Broncos

2004 DJ Williams 8.5

2005 no pick

2006 Jay Cutler 7.5 So hard to say, put up numbers, then the thing blew up, but they did get a lot in return

2007 Jarvis Moss 3 Never caught on and ultimately released

2008 Ryan Clady 8.5 Looks like a stud but it sounds like he's injured this year?

2009 Knowshon Moreno 7 Seems promising thus far

2009 Robert Ayers ?

2010 Demaryius Thomas ?

2010 Tebow ?

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2004 - DJ Williams - 8.0 -- a very solid player, not quite the perpetual all-star he looked like his rookie season. they've moved him around in different schemes and different positions, he's always held his own. good pick, good player.

2006 - Cutler - 8.0 -- for the time he was here, he was basically the player they'd hoped to be getting when they traded up to grab him.

2007 - Jarvis Moss - 1.0 -- total bust, completely worthless.

2008 - Ryan Clady - 8.5 -- been fighting injuries since his dominant rookie year, and not quite at that all-world level as a result, still a great pick who should hold down the position for a long time.

2009 - Moreno - 6.5 -- been looking good the last few games, but was really looking like a bit of a disappointment prior. I actually loved the pick when they made it. there is still a lot of upside.

2009 - Ayers - 4.0 -- getting more PT this year, still doesn't really stand out in any positive way. not a bust, but just doesn't seem to be the player they hoped they were getting.

2009 - Alphonso Smith - 1.0 -- he was drafted in the 2nd round, of course, but they gave up a 2010 first for him, so to me he is highly relevant to their recent first round draft history. and boy did they ever screw the pooch with that one.

2010 - Demaryius and Tebow - INC -- too early to tell. I didn't like the thomas pick when they made it, but the kid has phenomenal tools, I am anxious to see them put to use in future seasons if he can stay healthy. tebow, who the hell knows at this point. personally, I think they should find out next year, as I continue to believe that a team led by orton has a pretty mediocre ceiling.

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2004 - DJ Williams - 8.0 -- a very solid player, not quite the perpetual all-star he looked like his rookie season. they've moved him around in different schemes and different positions, he's always held his own. good pick, good player.

2006 - Cutler - 8.0 -- for the time he was here, he was basically the player they'd hoped to be getting when they traded up to grab him.

2007 - Jarvis Moss - 1.0 -- total bust, completely worthless.

2008 - Ryan Clady - 8.5 -- been fighting injuries since his dominant rookie year, and not quite at that all-world level as a result, still a great pick who should hold down the position for a long time.

2009 - Moreno - 6.5 -- been looking good the last few games, but was really looking like a bit of a disappointment prior. I actually loved the pick when they made it. there is still a lot of upside.

2009 - Ayers - 4.0 -- getting more PT this year, still doesn't really stand out in any positive way. not a bust, but just doesn't seem to be the player they hoped they were getting.

2009 - Alphonso Smith - 1.0 -- he was drafted in the 2nd round, of course, but they gave up a 2010 first for him, so to me he is highly relevant to their recent first round draft history. and boy did they ever screw the pooch with that one.

2010 - Demaryius and Tebow - INC -- too early to tell. I didn't like the thomas pick when they made it, but the kid has phenomenal tools, I am anxious to see them put to use in future seasons if he can stay healthy. tebow, who the hell knows at this point. personally, I think they should find out next year, as I continue to believe that a team led by orton has a pretty mediocre ceiling.

Thanks and this is not a study on how well teams have picked, but how how well 1st round picks have done, so Alphonso Smith is not important to the study.

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Broncos

 

2004 DJ Williams 8.5

2005 no pick

2006 Jay Cutler 7.5 So hard to say, put up numbers, then the thing blew up, but they did get a lot in return

2007 Jarvis Moss 3 Never caught on and ultimately released

2008 Ryan Clady 8.5 Looks like a stud but it sounds like he's injured this year?

2009 Knowshon Moreno 7 Seems promising thus far

2009 Robert Ayers ?

2010 Demaryius Thomas ?

2010 Tebow ?

 

I would love to comment, but I'm really afraid that the late Shanahan slide followed by McDaniels' absolutey abyssmal coaching is going to jade what some of these guys are capable of in the NFL.

 

Wiliiams at 8.5 is about right. I think if he could play on a team where his D-line would give him even a little cover he could go into 9 territory. He's that good.

 

I think the jury is still out on Cutler. Given his brain and his physical gifts he could well go into 8/9 territory. He finally seems to be figuring out that he doesn't have tro use his cannon of an arm to try to make a play every single time he takes a snap. If he does in fact have that mastered, the sky is the limit for him.

 

Clady is a 8.5/9 stud being penalized by McDaniels not being able to figure simple blocking schemes.

 

Moss was completely misused by first Shanahan and then McDaniels. He may never undo that damage. Or he just may not be that good.

 

Ayers looks to be average and no better. He is no match for O-linemen and doesn't understand leverage or angles very well. Maybe he can be taught, but I'm doubtful at this point.

 

Thomas? You have to hope he has a Rev Ike epiphany, because he's starting to look like the Rev in his first few seasons in the league.

 

Tebow? He's at least 3 years from getting a good feeling whether he's a gimmick guy or a real pro QB. That's a long time for a 1st rounder when you look how early other 1st round QBs have contributed.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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I see you lurking, step up...

 

What does the dude from San Diego that Rome always imitates say?

 

2 User(s) are reading this topic (0 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)

2 Members: detlef, tazinib1

 

 

From Baja to the Canadian Rockies....

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Chargers

2004 Phillip Rivers 9

2005 Sean Merriman 7? Dominant when he was on roids but...

2006 Antonio Cromartie 8, wrong system for player drafted

2007 Craig Davis 1, never has amounted to anything

2008 Antoine Cason 7, took over for Cro and has been as good in this system

2009 Larry English 4, has had solid games when able to stay on the field for an entire game (not that often LOL)

2010 Ryan Mathews 5. has shown burst and skill but needs the timing that comes with a full TC and game speed. if he misses any games next year with health issues, a 3 may be in order.

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Didn't see the other posts for the Chargers until I finished per your request. Sorry

 

8 Locked down position has made a pro bowl or two at least

7 Reliable starter but not necc thought of as one of the pillars of the team

 

I thought there needed a 7.5 in here. Locked the position down and a team pillar, but no pro bowls.

 

Chargers

 

2004 Phillip Rivers 9.5 - Rivers this year has had to face a worse injury bug to his WRs, RBs and OL than Manning (Manning still has his #1 WR healthy and playing at a high level) and Rivers is clearly playing better. If we are going to call Manning one of the best that has ever played the position, Rivers, at least this year is better.

 

2005 Sean Merriman 10 then/4 now - My how the mighty have fallen. It is wrong to say the steroids made the man. It had been almost a year when he tested positive when he was suspended and was still dominant for the following season. Having his leg snapped by the Titans (very dirty play) started a downhill spiral of leg injuries that he has not been able to overcome. His short/controversial career is over as a star player.

 

2006 Antonio Cromartie 6 - The Chargers were looking for his replacement even with the solid rookie year. His athleticism helped him with the picks his rookie year since teams threw at him a lot (Jammer on the other side is a shutdown corner). He is fragile and scared of contact, but a solid man-to-man cover corner. "The Matador" as he was known in San Diego. did an ole in the playoff game with the Jets that sealed his fate in San Diego. The Chargers were looking to replace him in his second year because he is injury prone, a horrible tackler and can cop a bad attitude when confronted on his soft play or errors.

 

2007 Craig Davis 5 - I am cutting the guy a break here. He has been hurt most of his career (so was VJax his first three years) and could end up being a ZERO. He was looking very good during camp and when on the field, made some great catches and for a smaller WR, is surprisingly willing/able to block. He could be an above average slot WR if he can stay healthy, but will probably never be greater than a 7. I give him one more year, but am afraid that the 0 is more probable than the 7.

 

2008 Antoine Cason 7.5 - Has quietly made the Chargers CB duo one of the best in the league. Solid play maker that loves contact and his teammates (the anti-Cormartie).

 

2009 Larry English 5 - Another player that has had injury problems. Was a project from the start in converting him from DE to OLB. Looks to be coming on, but has not shown the "worthiness" of a first round pick to date. Drafted to replace Merriman.

 

2010 Ryan Mathews 5 - Has shown burst and good fit for the offense. The ankle injury on film looked worse than what it turned out to be, but has clearly limited him. Has trouble with pass blocking assignments (as do almost all rookie RBs) which has limited his playing time with the Chargers playing from behind so much. Another year in the offense will give a better evaluation. Will probably end up being a 7 trapped in a RBBC scenario with Tolbert for the next few years. Could explode in this offense if he can stay healthy and become the man.

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2004 - Robert Gallery [7] - Despite notoriously being considered one of the biggest busts in the past decade, Robert Gallery is actually everything we thought he was coming out of Iowa. As the Raiders' current starting LG, Gallery is a staple to a very successful offensive line that has looked great the past two seasons. So why does the league consider him a bust? Well - it's not all his fault. Gallery was highly touted as one of the best LT to enter the draft in years. After being drafted, genius HC Norv Turner thought it best to move him at RT because they had a mediocre veteran playing LT already. So now you have one of the best rookie LTs playing out of position, where he played for two full seasons before being moved back to LT, and everyone wonders why he isn't performing up to his draft position. After being moved back to LT, two seasons of pitiful coaching had destroyed whatever positive coaching Gallery entered the league with, and for two seasons he was a "bust" at LT. In 2007, Gallery was moved to LG and has been very successful ever since. Call him a bust if you want, I blame the coaches.

 

2005 - Fabian Washington [4] - Drafted nearly two rounds two early because of his 4.2 40 yard dash, Fabian Washington has never measured up to anything special. He can run fast, but has poor concentration and lacks the awareness necessary to be an above average starting corner in the NFL. In 2008 he was traded for a fourth round pick to the Ravens after the Raiders acquired DeAngelo Hall. He currently plays Nickel for the Ravens, and works his way into the starting line up occasionally due to starters' injuries.

 

2006 - Michael Huff [7] - Another great talent destroyed by Oakland's piss-poor coaching. Michael Huff entered the 2006 draft as a Free Safety from Texas. Because the Raiders had special-teams extraordinaire Stuart Schweigert starting at FS, they decided to move Huff to SS, where he played out of position for two full seasons. During those two seasons, he was a horrible liability in coverage and lacked the size and strength to play decent run support. In 2008, he was moved back to FS when the Raiders acquired Gibril Wilson to play SS, but was benched for Hiram Eugene because of his previous two years of suck. In 2009 he took back the starting job, and he play as an above-average free safety since. He makes occasional errors in coverage and still struggles making clutch tackles, but is overall a solid starter. Like Robert Gallery however, who was also a victim of poor coaching, he will probably never amount to the 8/9 rated player he could have been.

 

2007 - Jamarcus Russell [1] - I chose 1 instead of 0 because Jamarcus had the talent, just lacked the work ethic. If he had neither talent or work ethic, he'd be a 0. But he is/was/forever will be, essentially a bust. It was a desperate and uncharacteristic move by Al Davis to draft a QB in the first round, and it backfired tremendously. As long as Al Davis is alive, don't ever expect to see the Silver and Black go Quarterback in the first two rounds of the draft again.

 

2008 - Darius Heyward-Bey [5] - Far too soon to tell. While most were quick to write him off as another speedster that lacked any talent, after his rookie season he put a tremendous amount of work into his route running and catching, and has really impressed a lot of people. I'd gander he'll remain a 5 throughout his career, but with what he's shown through his willingness to work and strive to get better - who knows, he could end up a 6-8.

 

2009 - Rolando McClain [7] - A 7 now, but could easily turn into a 8/9. Immediately handed the starting job, has worked hard physically and mentally since the day he was drafted, and is a beast at MLB. Struggles in run support, with much of the Raiders defense, but has a lot to do with the lack-luster front 4. Raiders are currently built as a speed/pass rushing defense, and as a result McClain often finds himself tangled up with offensive linemen on running plays. Expect him to turn his game up this off-season and with the imminent departure of Nnamdi Asomugha, become a vocal leader on and off the field for the Raiders defense.

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2004 - Robert Gallery [7] - Despite notoriously being considered one of the biggest busts in the past decade, Robert Gallery is actually everything we thought he was coming out of Iowa. As the Raiders' current starting LG, Gallery is a staple to a very successful offensive line that has looked great the past two seasons. So why does the league consider him a bust? Well - it's not all his fault. Gallery was highly touted as one of the best LT to enter the draft in years. After being drafted, genius HC Norv Turner thought it best to move him at RT because they had a mediocre veteran playing LT already. So now you have one of the best rookie LTs playing out of position, where he played for two full seasons before being moved back to LT, and everyone wonders why he isn't performing up to his draft position. After being moved back to LT, two seasons of pitiful coaching had destroyed whatever positive coaching Gallery entered the league with, and for two seasons he was a "bust" at LT. In 2007, Gallery was moved to LG and has been very successful ever since. Call him a bust if you want, I blame the coaches.

 

2005 - Fabian Washington [4] - Drafted nearly two rounds two early because of his 4.2 40 yard dash, Fabian Washington has never measured up to anything special. He can run fast, but has poor concentration and lacks the awareness necessary to be an above average starting corner in the NFL. In 2008 he was traded for a fourth round pick to the Ravens after the Raiders acquired DeAngelo Hall. He currently plays Nickel for the Ravens, and works his way into the starting line up occasionally due to starters' injuries.

 

2006 - Michael Huff [7] - Another great talent destroyed by Oakland's piss-poor coaching. Michael Huff entered the 2006 draft as a Free Safety from Texas. Because the Raiders had special-teams extraordinaire Stuart Schweigert starting at FS, they decided to move Huff to SS, where he played out of position for two full seasons. During those two seasons, he was a horrible liability in coverage and lacked the size and strength to play decent run support. In 2008, he was moved back to FS when the Raiders acquired Gibril Wilson to play SS, but was benched for Hiram Eugene because of his previous two years of suck. In 2009 he took back the starting job, and he play as an above-average free safety since. He makes occasional errors in coverage and still struggles making clutch tackles, but is overall a solid starter. Like Robert Gallery however, who was also a victim of poor coaching, he will probably never amount to the 8/9 rated player he could have been.

 

2007 - Jamarcus Russell [1] - I chose 1 instead of 0 because Jamarcus had the talent, just lacked the work ethic. If he had neither talent or work ethic, he'd be a 0. But he is/was/forever will be, essentially a bust. It was a desperate and uncharacteristic move by Al Davis to draft a QB in the first round, and it backfired tremendously. As long as Al Davis is alive, don't ever expect to see the Silver and Black go Quarterback in the first two rounds of the draft again.

 

2008 - Darius Heyward-Bey [5] - Far too soon to tell. While most were quick to write him off as another speedster that lacked any talent, after his rookie season he put a tremendous amount of work into his route running and catching, and has really impressed a lot of people. I'd gander he'll remain a 5 throughout his career, but with what he's shown through his willingness to work and strive to get better - who knows, he could end up a 6-8.

 

2009 - Rolando McClain [7] - A 7 now, but could easily turn into a 8/9. Immediately handed the starting job, has worked hard physically and mentally since the day he was drafted, and is a beast at MLB. Struggles in run support, with much of the Raiders defense, but has a lot to do with the lack-luster front 4. Raiders are currently built as a speed/pass rushing defense, and as a result McClain often finds himself tangled up with offensive linemen on running plays. Expect him to turn his game up this off-season and with the imminent departure of Nnamdi Asomugha, become a vocal leader on and off the field for the Raiders defense.

Thanks.

 

Tell you what, I'll split the difference on Russell and give him a .5. The fact that he is out of the league and only lasted 2.5 years before getting the boot, along with his career stats should make him the poster child for "colossal bust". That he has the physical tools should not be a factor. All that should matter is that his production was awful.

 

OK, so all we have left is AZ and Washington.

 

Anyone?

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