PROJECTED END OF SEASON RECORDS

[muck]

AFC seedings

12-4 NE

12-4 PIT

10-6 KC

9-7 JAC

11-5 NYJ

10-6 BAL

 

NFC seedings

13-3 ATL

11-5 CHI

11-5 PHI

8-8 SEA

11-5 NO

10-6 GB

 

Top 10 Draft Picks:

2-14 CAR

3-13 BUF

3-13 CIN

4-12 DET

5-11 DEN

5-11 ARI

6-10 DAL

6-10 SF

7-9 WAS

7-9 MIN

 

***********************************

 

DIVISIONAL STANDINGS

AFC East

12-4 NE

11-5 NYJ

8-8 MIA

3-13 BUF

 

AFC North

12-4 PIT

10-6 BAL

7-9 CLE

3-13 CIN

 

AFC South

9-7 JAC

8-8 IND

7-9 HOU

7-9 TEN

 

AFC West

10-6 KC

9-7 SD

8-8 OAK

5-11 DEN

 

NFC East

11-5 PHI

10-6 NYG

7-9 WAS

6-10 DAL

 

NFC North

11-5 CHI

10-6 GB

7-9 MIN

4-12 DET

 

NFC South

13-3 ATL

11-5 NO

9-7 TB

2-14 CAR

 

NFC West

8-8 SEA

8-8 STL

6-10 SF

5-11 ARI

 

NOTE: The wins/losses are off by 0 games' outcome (256 wins v. 256 losses) across the entire NFL. Because I project a W/L percentage, occasionally, due to rounding, the standings will occasionally have teams (in total) will have a couple more wins than loss, or vice versa.

 

***********************************

 

Teams with the easiest schedule here on out -- future opponents average Power Rank:

0.853 ARI

0.870 SD

0.881 ATL

0.92 PIT

0.938 SF

 

Teams with the hardest schedule here on out -- future opponents average Power Rank:

1.106 CHI

1.105 NO

1.088 CIN

1.085 CAR

1.075 BUF

 

***********************************

 

Power Ranks:

1.193 NE (#2 offense / #26 defense / #2 'other')

1.186 ATL (#8 offense / #16 defense / #1 'other')

1.174 PIT (#16 offense / #1 defense / #8 'other')

1.158 GB (#7 offense / #3 defense / #3 'other')

1.130 PHI (#1 offense / #17 defense / #13 'other')

1.124 NO (#4 offense / #9 defense / #25 'other')

1.116 BAL (#18 offense / #4 defense / #9 'other')

1.112 NYJ (#12 offense / #7 defense / #19 'other')

1.101 NYG (#6 offense / #6 defense / #14 'other')

1.095 CHI (#27 offense / #2 defense / #11 'other')

1.075 KC (#11 offense / #11 defense / #4 'other')

1.073 SD (#3 offense / #5 defense / #21 'other')

1.024 IND (#5 offense / #20 defense / #23 'other')

1.014 TB (#20 offense / #15 defense / #10 'other')

1.005 MIA (#22 offense / #8 defense / #18 'other')

0.998 OAK (#15 offense / #14 defense / #17 'other')

0.990 CLE (#28 offense / #18 defense / #5 'other')

0.982 TEN (#24 offense / #19 defense / #16 'other')

0.973 JAC (#14 offense / #24 defense / #29 'other')

0.960 MIN (#21 offense / #10 defense / #32 'other')

0.958 HOU (#9 offense / #31 defense / #7 'other')

0.955 STL (#26 offense / #12 defense / #6 'other')

0.930 SEA (#29 offense / #25 defense / #22 'other)

0.919 DAL (#10 offense / #28 defense / #28 'other')

0.911 WAS (#25 offense / #27 defense / #12 'other')

0.900 SF (#30 offense / #13 defense / #30 'other')

0.881 DET (#13 offense / #22 defense / #20 'other')

0.859 DEN (#17 offense / #30 defense / #24 'other')

0.849 CIN (#19 offense / #23 defense / #15 'other')

0.824 BUF (#23 offense / #29 defense / #27 'other')

0.793 ARI (#31 offense / #32 defense / #31 'other')

0.734 CAR (#32 offense / #21 defense / #26 'other')

 

NOTE: ranking the offense, defense and 'other' is based on a proprietary mix of methods ... 'other' consists of items like penalties and turnovers ...

 

***********************************

 

After starting five weeks ago, the methodology below has been 57-30 outright winners:

 

Week 14 Projections (ranked in decending order of projected total points scored):

 

STL at NO ... NO by 9.8 pts ... 51.9 pts

IND at TEN ... TEN by 2.6 pts ... 47.7 pts

KC at SD ... SD by 3.8 pts ... 46.3 pts

OAK at JAC ... JAC by 1.8 pts ... 45.2 pts

BAL at HOU ... BAL by 0.4 pts ... 45.1 pts

MIA at NYJ ... NYJ by 5.1 pts ... 44.6 pts

NYG at MIN ... MIN by 0.8 pts ... 44.4 pts

NE at CHI ... CHI by 0.9 pts ... 44.1 pts

GB at DET ... GB by 2.8 pts ... 43.8 pts

PHI at DAL ... PHI by 0.9 pts ... 43.7 pts

TB at WAS ... WAS by 1.5 pts ... 43.7 pts

CIN at PIT ... PIT by 9.8 pts ... 43.2 pts

SEA at SF ... SF by 3.0 pts ... 43.2 pts

CLE at BUF ... CLE by 0.3 pts ... 42.9 pts

DEN at ARI ... ARI by 0.4 pts ... 42.8 pts

ATL at CAR ... ATL by 7.2 pts ... 41.9 pts

 

...assumes a 3.0 point "home field advantage" vs. the score at a neutral site...

[muck]

A little surprised that there was no comments this week ...

 

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

A little surprised that there was no comments this week ...

 

 

 

the only comment I have is it is hard to believe that NE will finish 2 - 2 after going 10 - 2

[awahl63]

Predicting the Bears over the Pats...I'll take it. Cheers to hoping your system is right.

[Skippy]

The only comment that I have is that I really like to read these posts of yours, Muck.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

The only comment that I have is that I really like to read these posts of yours, Muck.

 

 

+1

[kevinkris]

The only comment that I have is that I really like to read these posts of yours, Muck.

 

Excatly, I don't always make comments but I read it every week!

 

Would be excited if INDY didn't make the playoffs:)

[chinatown dragons]

So as the Pats are 10-2 right now, and predicting a 12-4 record, I assume you are predictign they lose to Chicago this week and Green Bay (at home) next week?

 

They have Buffalo and Miami left after that....If they get past Chicago, they could run the table last 4 games...

[i_am_the_swammi]

The better you project the Eagles, the more nervous I get

 

11-5 means they go 3-1 the rest of the way @DAL, @NYG, MIN & DAL..which would be just fine, as long as one of those wins is @NYG.

 

That game is going to decide who wins the NFC East, and potentially who stays home with a 10-6 or 11-5 record.

[muck]

So as the Pats are 10-2 right now, and predicting a 12-4 record, I assume you are predictign they lose to Chicago this week and Green Bay (at home) next week?

 

They have Buffalo and Miami left after that....If they get past Chicago, they could run the table last 4 games...

 

Remember, I project a W/L %, and then translate that into # of wins and # of losses ... the Pats are projected to have more than 12.00 wins, but less than 12.50 wins ... so, since, in 'real life' they can't win a fractional game, I have them at 12-4 from here on out.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Remember, I project a W/L %, and then translate that into # of wins and # of losses ... the Pats are projected to have more than 12.00 wins, but less than 12.50 wins ... so, since, in 'real life' they can't win a fractional game, I have them at 12-4 from here on out.

 

 

Maybe they tie

[muck]

FWIW...and to clear up any misconceptions...the actual projections for W/L record for NE and PHI is:

 

NE = 12.49 wins and 3.51 losses

PHI = 10.57 wins and 5.43 losses

[kevinkris]

The thing is, from what I understand, is that each game you give a team a percentage to win. So if a team has lets say like .3 to win each of their next 4 games, in total they have 1.2 wins so they would be 1-3 in the next 4.

 

In reality however the team could easily lose all 4 and go 0-4.

 

This is why NE is projected to be 12-4, if they have .6-.65 to win everygame (so they would be anywhere from 2.4-2.6 wins) , they will be projected to be 12-4, while still being the favourite to win every game they play.

 

Just trying to help calrify things.

 

Let me know if this is wrong!

 

It suprised me that the bears are projected to be 11-5 which is why i think it is this way, because I can see them losing all four of their next games, but in each they probably have any where from .4-.6 chances of winning and would get "2" wins.

[muck]

KevinKris -- you've got it ... I project a forward W/L % based on a variety of factors related to them and related to the teams they're playing (in the aggregate, not in a one-at-a-time manner) ... and then convert the projected W/L % into an actual number of (rounded) wins and losses.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

I like the way you put this together and enjoy it every week ,, two questions though

 

Why the 3.0 point "home field advantage" vs. the score at a neutral site ?

I understand that this is a standard and that many experts use or say they use but why

who came up with this in the 1st place ? who is to say that the 12th man = 3 points ?

there is no way of proving or disproving that teams are worth an extra 3 points at home

 

So for my 2nd question,, have you ever ran your system with the 3 points removed ?

If so was the out come closer using it than without ?

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

FWIW - I have been told that when handi-capping a game you are to ignore where the game is being played until after you come up with the final score. Then if the final you come up with is 3 points or less you go with the home team. If the final score you come up with is greater that 3 points you do not use this rule

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Here is my projections for the NE / CHI game since it has been discussed here ,,, FYI I combined rushing and receiving yards for any player.

 

Tom Brady 275 2TD

BGE 90 1TD

Woodhead 75 0

Welker 75 1TD

Branch 75 1TD

Hernandez 60 0

Graham 9 ( 3xp & 2fg )

_______________________

27pts

 

 

Jay Cutler 225 1TD

Matt Forte 75 1TD

Hester 50 0

Knox 50 0

Bennett 75 1TD

Olsen 25 0

Gould 8 ( 2xp & 2fg )

______________________

20pts

[Brentastic]

Here is my projections for the NE / CHI game since it has been discussed here ,,, FYI I combined rushing and receiving yards for any player.

 

Tom Brady 275 2TD

BGE 90 1TD

Woodhead 75 0

Welker 75 1TD

Branch 75 1TD

Hernandez 60 0

Graham 9 ( 3xp & 2fg )

_______________________

27pts

 

 

Jay Cutler 225 1TD

Matt Forte 75 1TD

Hester 50 0

Knox 50 0

Bennett 75 1TD

Olsen 25 0

Gould 8 ( 2xp & 2fg )

______________________

20pts

Does your analysis factor in the following?:

 

Sunday: Widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Wind chill values as low as -3. Very windy, with a north northwest wind 25 to 30 mph increasing to between 35 and 40 mph. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Edited December 10, 2010 by Brentastic

[redrumjuice]

Indy's only gonna win one more game?

 

Pick which one they win:

 

Home vs Jax

@ Oak

Home vs. tenn

 

I can see them winning out.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Does your analysis factor in the following?:

 

Sunday: Widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Wind chill values as low as -3. Very windy, with a north northwest wind 25 to 30 mph increasing to between 35 and 40 mph. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

 

 

No it doesn't ,,, it is base on the game being played in a dome on a neutral field. I only started doing my own predictions last year.

If I was using these to wager on a game I would throw in a bunch more factors but for last year and this year I just wanted to see how close I could come to the actual out come throwing all other factors out the window. So far so good and the reason I even posted it here in this thread is because I respect Muck's work & detail he put into it and was wondering why he uses the 3pt home filed advantage and if he ever ran it without ,,, if so which was one way more accurate than the other ?

[muck]

I haven't run it without the 3pt HFA.

 

It'd be interesting to see the results ... someone else can do it easy enough since all you'd have to do is move the projected line 3pts away from the home team (i.e., if home team is projected to win by 1.6pts, then on a neutral site, the visitor would be projected to win by 1.4pts) ... I (frankly) don't have the time.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Ok just for fun I ran it for this week and only made a note next to the games that it makes a difference

Since I'm only concerned about who wins and not by how many it only effected the (6) games

that you gave to the home team by less than 3 points

 

 

 

STL at NO ... NO by 9.8 pts ... 51.9 pts

IND at TEN ... TEN by 2.6 pts ... 47.7 pts ...... IND Wins

KC at SD ... SD by 3.8 pts ... 46.3 pts

OAK at JAC ... JAC by 1.8 pts ... 45.2 pts ...... OAK Wins

BAL at HOU ... BAL by 0.4 pts ... 45.1 pts ...... BAL Wins

MIA at NYJ ... NYJ by 5.1 pts ... 44.6 pts

NYG at MIN ... MIN by 0.8 pts ... 44.4 pts ...... NYG Wins

NE at CHI ... CHI by 0.9 pts ... 44.1 pts

GB at DET ... GB by 2.8 pts ... 43.8 pts

PHI at DAL ... PHI by 0.9 pts ... 43.7 pts

TB at WAS ... WAS by 1.5 pts ... 43.7 pts ...... TB Wins

CIN at PIT ... PIT by 9.8 pts ... 43.2 pts

SEA at SF ... SF by 3.0 pts ... 43.2 pts ........... Push

CLE at BUF ... CLE by 0.3 pts ... 42.9 pts

DEN at ARI ... ARI by 0.4 pts ... 42.8 pts ...... DEN Wins

ATL at CAR ... ATL by 7.2 pts ... 41.9 pts

Edited December 11, 2010 by MustOfBeenDrunk