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What is magic number when it comes to wind?


SpinalTapp
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As an owner who lost in the playoffs in 2007 when Brady put up zippy against the Jets at home during an incredibly windy storm, I am very worried about the Pats/Bears game this weekend. Once again, I have Brady and horrific weather to consider. I am thinking that if the winds are gusting beyond 30mph, it may be time to consider alternatives. At what point (condition) do you consider alternatives?

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I start thinking about it if the winds are sustained at 20MPH, depending on the QB. At 25MPH, unless my other option is very poor, I likely make a change. At 30MPH... no way. You also have to figure that there will be gusts, which are even more problematic in the passing game. A steady wind is preferable. This is the time of year I also consider carrying two FG kickers. No way I would want to start a FG kicker in the Jets Miami game on Sunday.

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Chicago, IL Weather Advisories, Watches & Warnings

WINTER STORM WATCH

in effect until Monday, Dec 13, 12:00 AM

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

 

* TIMING...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 INCHES...BUT STRONG WINDS COULD PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING.

 

* HAZARDS...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...REDUCED VISIBILITY...BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS TO AROUND 25 BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT.

 

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS...VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES...FALLING BRANCHES AND POWERLINES...FROSTBITE.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

THIS WINTER STORM WATCH IS MEANT TO ADDRESS A VARIETY OF HAZARDS INCLUDING SNOW...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

 

&&

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

in effect until Saturday, Dec 11, 4:00 AM

...AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...

 

AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE FOG MAY BECOME DENSE IN SOME AREAS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

 

IN ADDITION...WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS... THE FOG MAY ALLOW ICE TO FORM...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

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Guys, living in Chicago (actually in the city, not in the burbs) I will be more than happy to give you an honest assesment of the wind conditions on game day. Even though I will be on this board on gameday morning it's probably better if I give someone my email.

 

SO - If anyone wants to PM me, I'll give you my email and that way on gameday an email will come through on my phone and I'll definitely receive it rather than risking me missing this thread. I will walk outside, around the block and let you know the actual conditions. I too have Brady in one league, so I will let you know what I'll be doing on gameday.

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Guys, living in Chicago (actually in the city, not in the burbs) I will be more than happy to give you an honest assesment of the wind conditions on game day. Even though I will be on this board on gameday morning it's probably better if I give someone my email.

 

SO - If anyone wants to PM me, I'll give you my email and that way on gameday an email will come through on my phone and I'll definitely receive it rather than risking me missing this thread. I will walk outside, around the block and let you know the actual conditions. I too have Brady in one league, so I will let you know what I'll be doing on gameday.

 

 

Wow - you really are Brentastic!

Edited by staniels12
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I'll take the contrarian argument: pass-oriented teams do not instantly become run-oriented teams with weather changes. Too often in the past I let weather dominate my FF lineup decisions, and much more often than not I lived to regret getting freaked about bad weather. Unless there is a blizzard, torrential downpour, or some other extreme weather system developing, I leave weather as a small component of my decision making. I usually factor in a 10 percent reduction in projections for any given player, and that seems to be a reasonable across-the-board adjustment.

Edited by historymike
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I have no players in this game, but as of right now, my playoff opponent in my main league is starting Brady and Forte against me.

 

LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW! (Or should it be LET IT BLOW?) :wacko:

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As an owner who lost in the playoffs in 2007 when Brady put up zippy against the Jets at home during an incredibly windy storm, I am very worried about the Pats/Bears game this weekend. Once again, I have Brady and horrific weather to consider. I am thinking that if the winds are gusting beyond 30mph, it may be time to consider alternatives. At what point (condition) do you consider alternatives?

The Pats run primarily by throwing quick outs and WR screens. I wouldn't expect that to change much due to weather. Most of their passes seem to be 10 yard and less throws, the kind the wind probably won't affect. I understand the hesitation but would need a darn good backup to sit Brady.

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Why would Forte be a poor play in this game?

 

I don't know, let's say the wind makes any passes longer than 2 yards impossible, so the defense plays 11 in the box on a day when you can't feel your hands or feet and the ball is like a frozen chunk of granite? Seems like a low-scoring game is likely.

 

That would be bad for, well, ALL offensive players in the game, right?

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I'll be keeping an eye on this. I have Brady and my backup is Eli. With the Metrodome laying in a heap it doesn't look good for either of them. The storm that's hitting Chicago came through here yesterday and I can't imagine playing football in those conditions.

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I'll be keeping an eye on this. I have Brady and my backup is Eli. With the Metrodome laying in a heap it doesn't look good for either of them. The storm that's hitting Chicago came through here yesterday and I can't imagine playing football in those conditions.

I'm in the exact same boat.

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Last time Brady faced conditions like this (12/16/07)...he passed for 147 yards, 1 int and no TDs. I am worried his day will look the same tomorrow. Could be a disaster. BTW...he cost me a championship that year (I am sure I was not alone).

 

hmmm....10/18/09 59-0........Titans

 

The Patriots gained a club-record 619 yards, with Brady completing 29 of 34 passes for 380 yards and 6 TD's

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gwScizdZRQ

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hmmm....10/18/09 59-0........Titans

 

The Patriots gained a club-record 619 yards, with Brady completing 29 of 34 passes for 380 yards and 6 TD's

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gwScizdZRQ

 

 

that game was just in the snow. the wind was not even close to what it's gonna be today. big big difference.

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that game was just in the snow. the wind was not even close to what it's gonna be today. big big difference.

 

 

That is my concern...50mph gusts...low visibility....30mph sustained winds. Not just a snow storm.

 

That is why I am actually considering A.Smith vs the Seahawks.

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