STL Fan Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The NE/CHI game is the latest perfect example of what has happened several times this year. We all see the weather reports. We all overanalyze it, and make stupid lineup decisions based on that over-analysis. With the forecast in CHI, the common wisdom was to think hard about starting guys like Brady, Branch and Welker, and start guys like Forte and Green-Ellis. WRONG. With the way the NFL now takes care of the footballs, keeping them warm and dry and switching them out before every play if they get wet or dirty, and with the advent of high-tech receiver gloves, and the spread of field turf, I for one am no longer considering weather a major fantasy factor. Period. I'm moving weather down the list of variables to somewhere around "uniform color." Who's with me? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunday Couch Potatoe Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I'm moving weather down the list of variables to somewhere around "uniform color." Who's with me? Here here...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I dunno, the weather sure seemed to bother the Bears . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Fan Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Here here...... Testify brother! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I dunno, the weather sure seemed to bother the Bears . . . ...and the Redskins, and the Bucs, and the Browns, and the Bills, and the Jets, and the Dolphins....in fact, Red Zone mentioned it was the 1st week all season that they didn't reach 50 TDs scored before the Sunday Night game....this week was 48, previously low was 54. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I said the same thing in the pass threads and have thought so for years now. Wind will bother kickers but other than that throw it out the window Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Fan Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 (edited) ...and the Redskins, and the Bucs, and the Browns, and the Bills, and the Jets, and the Dolphins....in fact, Red Zone mentioned it was the 1st week all season that they didn't reach 50 TDs scored before the Sunday Night game....this week was 48, previously low was 54. A quick look at the QB fantasy points from my main league for the QB's on the teams mentioned above. First column is their average for the last three games, second column is their actual fantasy points today. It is not a QB-heavy league, but they are almost always still the top scorers in the league on average. QB 3gm avg actual Cutler 14 8 McNabb 14 15 Freeman 16 14 Delhomme 7 3 Fitzpatrick 14 14 Sanchez 14 10 Henne 10 5 So 2 of 7 at or above their three-game average, 3 of 7 within four points, and Cutler at -6 and Henne at -5. I'm sticking with my original theory, especially when you consider the point differential when you drop from your #1 QB to your #2 would be at least similar IMO. BTW, as an aside, that's not exactly a murderer's row of QB's, is it? ETA: swapped a couple columns, fixed them. Edited December 13, 2010 by STL Fan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The NE/CHI game is the latest perfect example of what has happened several times this year. We all see the weather reports. We all overanalyze it, and make stupid lineup decisions based on that over-analysis. With the forecast in CHI, the common wisdom was to think hard about starting guys like Brady, Branch and Welker, and start guys like Forte and Green-Ellis. WRONG. With the way the NFL now takes care of the footballs, keeping them warm and dry and switching them out before every play if they get wet or dirty, and with the advent of high-tech receiver gloves, and the spread of field turf, I for one am no longer considering weather a major fantasy factor. Period. I'm moving weather down the list of variables to somewhere around "uniform color." Who's with me? The only weather that is a game-changer is wind. Rain and snow have no negative impact on offensive teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Fan Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 The only weather that is a game-changer is wind. Rain and snow have no negative impact on offensive teams. And even at that, it has to be a really strong sustained wind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 And even at that, it has to be a really strong sustained wind. It seems kickers are affected the most because as we saw today, coaches are hesitant to even attempt FGs from any distance. Othere than that, it seems we probably shouldn't sweat it much. Kind of situational today for Brady though, as his short pitch and catch routine with Welker is a perfect foil for those conditions, but I agree bad weather is overrated as a concern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Fan Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 It seems kickers are affected the most because as we saw today, coaches are hesitant to even attempt FGs from any distance. Othere than that, it seems we probably shouldn't sweat it much. Kind of situational today for Brady though, as his short pitch and catch routine with Welker is a perfect foil for those conditions, but I agree bad weather is overrated as a concern. My original post is probably a little over-dramatic, but this is what I'm saying. I am not going to let weather force me to make dumb mistakes anymore. ASYS. I agree about the kickers, though. A kicked ball is affected way more than a thrown ball. That whole spiral thing that improves aerodynamics vs a ball that is tumbling end-over-end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 And even at that, it has to be a really strong sustained wind. Agreed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROYALWITCHEESE Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 (edited) Here here...... Where? It's "hear, hear"... Edited December 13, 2010 by ROYALWITCHEESE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I kept Welker in my lineup and dropped Robbie Gould for Josh Brown. Boy am I glad I did. I am in a dogfight. I am up 19 and have Peterson against his Foster. Please be enough! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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