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PROJECTED REST OF SEASON RECORDS


muck
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AFC seedings

13-3 NE

12-4 PIT

10-6 JAC

10-6 KC

11-5 BAL

11-5 NYJ

 

NFC seedings

13-3 ATL

11-5 PHI

10-6 CHI

7-9 STL

11-5 NO

11-5 NYG

 

Top 10 Draft Picks:

2-14 CAR

3-13 CIN

4-12 BUF

4-12 DEN

4-12 DET

5-11 DAL

6-10 ARI

6-10 WAS

6-10 MIN

6-10 CLE

 

***********************************

 

DIVISIONAL STANDINGS

AFC East

13-3 NE

11-5 NYJ

9-7 MIA

3-13 BUF

 

AFC North

12-4 PIT

11-5 BAL

6-10 CLE

3-13 CIN

 

AFC South

10-6 JAC

9-7 IND

7-9 HOU

6-10 TEN

 

AFC West

10-6 KC

9-7 SD

8-8 OAK

4-12 DEN

 

NFC East

11-5 PHI

11-5 NYG

6-10 WAS

5-11 DAL

 

NFC North

11-5 CHI

9-7 GB

6-10 MIN

4-12 DET

 

NFC South

13-3 ATL

11-5 NO

10-6 TB

2-14 CAR

 

NFC West

7-9 STL

7-9 SEA

6-10 SF

6-10 ARI

 

NOTE: The wins/losses are off by 0 games' outcome (256 wins v. 256 losses) across the entire NFL. Because I project a W/L percentage, occasionally, due to rounding, the standings will occasionally have teams (in total) will have a couple more wins than loss, or vice versa.

 

***********************************

 

Teams with the easiest schedule here on out -- future opponents average Power Rank:

0.835 SD

0.860 ARI

0.927 ATL

0.928 HOU

0.930 PIT

 

Teams with the hardest schedule here on out -- future opponents average Power Rank:

1.134 GB

1.111 BUF

1.109 NO

1.070 CAR

1.065 CIN

 

***********************************

 

Power Ranks:

1.225 NE (#2 offense / #24 defense / #1 'other')

1.192 ATL (#8 offense / #12 defense / #2 'other')

1.183 PIT (#14 offense / #1 defense / #6 'other')

1.141 NO (#4 offense / #8 defense / #26 'other')

1.131 PHI (#1 offense / #17 defense / #12 'other')

1.122 BAL (#15 offense / #9 defense / #5 'other')

1.118 GB (#10 offense / #4 defense / #4 'other')

1.118 NYG (#6 offense / #3 defense / #13 'other')

1.109 SD (#3 offense / #2 defense / #25 'other')

1.091 NYJ (#16 offense / #5 defense / #17 'other')

1.061 CHI (#29 offense / #7 defense / #14 'other')

1.033 IND (#5 offense / #21 defense / #21 'other')

1.032 KC (#13 offense / #14 defense / #3 'other')

1.026 TB (#19 offense / #16 defense / #10 'other')

1.019 MIA (#27 offense / #6 defense / #22 'other')

0.990 JAC (#12 offense / #28 defense / #28 'other')

0.985 OAK (#11 offense / #18 defense / #20 'other')

0.970 TEN (#21 offense / #19 defense / #18 'other')

0.964 CLE (#28 offense / #15 defense / #8 'other')

0.950 HOU (#7 offense / #31 defense / #11 'other')

0.943 STL (#28 offense / #11 defense / #7 'other')

0.939 MIN (#25 offense / #10 defense / #30 'other')

0.933 SF (#24 offense / #13 defense / #16 'other')

0.912 DAL (#9 offense / #30 defense / #27 'other')

0.906 WAS (#23 offense / #26 defense / #9 'other')

0.905 SEA (#26 offense / #27 defense / #32 'other)

0.904 DET (#18 offense / #20 defense / #19 'other')

0.853 BUF (#22 offense / #25 defense / #24 'other')

0.846 CIN (#20 offense / #23 defense / #15 'other')

0.836 ARI (#31 offense / #29 defense / #23 'other')

0.825 DEN (#17 offense / #32 defense / #31 'other')

0.735 CAR (#32 offense / #22 defense / #29 'other')

 

NOTE: ranking the offense, defense and 'other' is based on a proprietary mix of methods ... 'other' consists of items like penalties and turnovers ...

 

***********************************

 

After starting six weeks ago, the methodology below has been 66-37 outright winners:

 

Week 15 Projections (ranked in decending order of projected total points scored):

 

JAC at IND ... IND by 4.7

HOU at TEN ... TEN by 4.1

KC at STL ... STL by 1.1

PHI at NYG ... NYG by 2.6

SF at SD ... SD by 9.0

WAS at DAL ... DAL by 3.9 pts

NYJ at PIT ... PIT by 5.7

DEN at OAK ... OAK by 6.9

CHI at MIN ... MIN by 1.2

ARI at CAR ... CAR by 0.1

GB at NE ... NE by 4.0

CLE at CIN ... CIN by 0.8

NO at BAL ... BAL by 3.3

ATL at SEA ... ATL by 3.5

DET at TB ... TB by 3.7

BUF at MIA ... MIA by 6.0

 

...assumes a 3.0 point "home field advantage" vs. the score at a neutral site...

 

ETA: WAS at DAL ... DAL by 3.9 pts

Edited by muck
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Somethings just inherently wrong when a team under .500 makes the playoffs.

 

 

depends on how you look at it ??

at one time the public was screaming they wanted all teams to end the season at 8 & 8

I think they called it parity ,,, well maybe they didn't want all to end at 8 & 8 but they didn't want to see the so called dynasties either

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For the Jets to finish at 11-5 as predicted above, they'll have to win either at Pittsburgh this weekend (extremely unlikely) or at Chicago the following weekend, and also beat the Bills at home in their season finale Never a guarantee against the Bills).

 

Hope you're right, the Jets are playing very poorly right now, especially on the offensive side of the ball, pretty sure they will be an underdog in week 16.

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This may have come up before, but does the methodology you use for the calculations take trends into account?

 

No.

 

It takes me about 90 minutes a week to crunch these numbers as they are ... if 'trending' was added to the analysis, it'd easily double or triple that ...

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Muck-What's your prediction on Washington vs. Dallas?

 

It would appear that your guess is as good as mine...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

...good catch...I'll update the original post accordingly in a minute...

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