muck Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 (edited) AFC seedings 13-3 NE 12-4 PIT 10-6 JAC 10-6 KC 11-5 BAL 11-5 NYJ NFC seedings 13-3 ATL 11-5 PHI 10-6 CHI 7-9 STL 11-5 NO 11-5 NYG Top 10 Draft Picks: 2-14 CAR 3-13 CIN 4-12 BUF 4-12 DEN 4-12 DET 5-11 DAL 6-10 ARI 6-10 WAS 6-10 MIN 6-10 CLE *********************************** DIVISIONAL STANDINGS AFC East 13-3 NE 11-5 NYJ 9-7 MIA 3-13 BUF AFC North 12-4 PIT 11-5 BAL 6-10 CLE 3-13 CIN AFC South 10-6 JAC 9-7 IND 7-9 HOU 6-10 TEN AFC West 10-6 KC 9-7 SD 8-8 OAK 4-12 DEN NFC East 11-5 PHI 11-5 NYG 6-10 WAS 5-11 DAL NFC North 11-5 CHI 9-7 GB 6-10 MIN 4-12 DET NFC South 13-3 ATL 11-5 NO 10-6 TB 2-14 CAR NFC West 7-9 STL 7-9 SEA 6-10 SF 6-10 ARI NOTE: The wins/losses are off by 0 games' outcome (256 wins v. 256 losses) across the entire NFL. Because I project a W/L percentage, occasionally, due to rounding, the standings will occasionally have teams (in total) will have a couple more wins than loss, or vice versa. *********************************** Teams with the easiest schedule here on out -- future opponents average Power Rank: 0.835 SD 0.860 ARI 0.927 ATL 0.928 HOU 0.930 PIT Teams with the hardest schedule here on out -- future opponents average Power Rank: 1.134 GB 1.111 BUF 1.109 NO 1.070 CAR 1.065 CIN *********************************** Power Ranks: 1.225 NE (#2 offense / #24 defense / #1 'other') 1.192 ATL (#8 offense / #12 defense / #2 'other') 1.183 PIT (#14 offense / #1 defense / #6 'other') 1.141 NO (#4 offense / #8 defense / #26 'other') 1.131 PHI (#1 offense / #17 defense / #12 'other') 1.122 BAL (#15 offense / #9 defense / #5 'other') 1.118 GB (#10 offense / #4 defense / #4 'other') 1.118 NYG (#6 offense / #3 defense / #13 'other') 1.109 SD (#3 offense / #2 defense / #25 'other') 1.091 NYJ (#16 offense / #5 defense / #17 'other') 1.061 CHI (#29 offense / #7 defense / #14 'other') 1.033 IND (#5 offense / #21 defense / #21 'other') 1.032 KC (#13 offense / #14 defense / #3 'other') 1.026 TB (#19 offense / #16 defense / #10 'other') 1.019 MIA (#27 offense / #6 defense / #22 'other') 0.990 JAC (#12 offense / #28 defense / #28 'other') 0.985 OAK (#11 offense / #18 defense / #20 'other') 0.970 TEN (#21 offense / #19 defense / #18 'other') 0.964 CLE (#28 offense / #15 defense / #8 'other') 0.950 HOU (#7 offense / #31 defense / #11 'other') 0.943 STL (#28 offense / #11 defense / #7 'other') 0.939 MIN (#25 offense / #10 defense / #30 'other') 0.933 SF (#24 offense / #13 defense / #16 'other') 0.912 DAL (#9 offense / #30 defense / #27 'other') 0.906 WAS (#23 offense / #26 defense / #9 'other') 0.905 SEA (#26 offense / #27 defense / #32 'other) 0.904 DET (#18 offense / #20 defense / #19 'other') 0.853 BUF (#22 offense / #25 defense / #24 'other') 0.846 CIN (#20 offense / #23 defense / #15 'other') 0.836 ARI (#31 offense / #29 defense / #23 'other') 0.825 DEN (#17 offense / #32 defense / #31 'other') 0.735 CAR (#32 offense / #22 defense / #29 'other') NOTE: ranking the offense, defense and 'other' is based on a proprietary mix of methods ... 'other' consists of items like penalties and turnovers ... *********************************** After starting six weeks ago, the methodology below has been 66-37 outright winners: Week 15 Projections (ranked in decending order of projected total points scored): JAC at IND ... IND by 4.7 HOU at TEN ... TEN by 4.1 KC at STL ... STL by 1.1 PHI at NYG ... NYG by 2.6 SF at SD ... SD by 9.0 WAS at DAL ... DAL by 3.9 pts NYJ at PIT ... PIT by 5.7 DEN at OAK ... OAK by 6.9 CHI at MIN ... MIN by 1.2 ARI at CAR ... CAR by 0.1 GB at NE ... NE by 4.0 CLE at CIN ... CIN by 0.8 NO at BAL ... BAL by 3.3 ATL at SEA ... ATL by 3.5 DET at TB ... TB by 3.7 BUF at MIA ... MIA by 6.0 ...assumes a 3.0 point "home field advantage" vs. the score at a neutral site... ETA: WAS at DAL ... DAL by 3.9 pts Edited December 16, 2010 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myhousekey Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Somethings just inherently wrong when a team under .500 makes the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 This may have come up before, but does the methodology you use for the calculations take trends into account? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Somethings just inherently wrong when a team under .500 makes the playoffs. depends on how you look at it ?? at one time the public was screaming they wanted all teams to end the season at 8 & 8 I think they called it parity ,,, well maybe they didn't want all to end at 8 & 8 but they didn't want to see the so called dynasties either Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Easy n Dirty Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 For the Jets to finish at 11-5 as predicted above, they'll have to win either at Pittsburgh this weekend (extremely unlikely) or at Chicago the following weekend, and also beat the Bills at home in their season finale Never a guarantee against the Bills). Hope you're right, the Jets are playing very poorly right now, especially on the offensive side of the ball, pretty sure they will be an underdog in week 16. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 This may have come up before, but does the methodology you use for the calculations take trends into account? No. It takes me about 90 minutes a week to crunch these numbers as they are ... if 'trending' was added to the analysis, it'd easily double or triple that ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borge007 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Muck-What's your prediction on Washington vs. Dallas? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Muck-What's your prediction on Washington vs. Dallas? It would appear that your guess is as good as mine... ...good catch...I'll update the original post accordingly in a minute... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 WAS at DAL ... DAL by 3.9 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 (edited) 8-5 heading into Sunday night Edited December 20, 2010 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 8-5 heading into Sunday night you are missing a game then...need to have 14 in the books prior to the Sunday Night game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Next Generation Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 you are missing a game then...need to have 14 in the books prior to the Sunday Night game. I don't think he's counting the cripple fight between Arizona and Carolina as an actual game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 How about saying it like this: 10-5 heading into MNF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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