robert terni Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 I'm up by 33 with vick and akers to go..and hes got Matt Ryan, Harvin and Celek...He clearly thinks he lost because he offered me the victory if I paid him the 2nd place + $50....and no matter the outcome I win the jackpot...what you think?? I dont need to stress out for the next 2 days now... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stethant Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 What are the first and second place payouts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdub1988 Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Absolutely not. You've got him beat, no reason to pay him an extra $50. Vick + Akers scores way more than Ryan + Harvin + Celek, you should win by over 30 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boltnlava Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 May just be me but this goes against everything I play for. I just gotta say...Dude, Wha? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robert terni Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 1st place gets 700 2nd gets 50...so giving him an extra 50 im still coming ahead 650 and now dont have to worry about anything Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmonkey Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 i say crush his soul, dont take the deal. Win the whole thing and use the 50 bucks you save to buy yourself a victory steak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitehype Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 yeah screw him.... don't take the deal!!! you got him beat!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbran23 Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Its goes from 700 all the way down to 50 for second? Thats a pretty steep drop. How many people in the league? Â As anyone knows thats been around fantasy or any other kind of sports gambling, there is no such thing as a sure thing. That being said, your lead looks pretty safe to me but you never know. Maybe you can haggle him down to $25 to conceed. I would do that deal. $50 is a little too much in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stethant Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 (edited) So, I think this is near a break-even proposition from the money winnings perspective. In this deal, you're going to "spend" $50 to ensure that you win $650. 650/700=..929 Â If you think you have a >93% chance of winning outright, I would not take the deal. If you think you have less than a 93% chance of winning, you'll make money more often than you lose by taking the deal. Â My is that you have around a 95% chance of winning, so it's a close call. No one is getting fleeced in the deal, and you should do what you're most comfortable with. Â I'd be interested to hear if anyone else has thoughts on the expected value here. Edited December 27, 2010 by stethant Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unbelievable Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Exactly HOW is he gonna "give" you the win? Â Verbally....by just conceding? Benching his players? Â Sounds shady to me. I'd whup his butt and use the extra 50 to buy him a "2nd Place" Trophy with a little girl on top. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
montster Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Two teams agree that one team will tank in exchange for a more favorable split of the pot for the losing team. How is this not collusion? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Given the steep drop in payouts, hell yes you take the deal. stethant did the math, and as much as it may look that way, no guarantees and I would not put you as a 95%+ favorite, too many variables and freak injuries that could come in to play to not take the $650 lock here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Two teams agree that one team will tank in exchange for a more favorable split of the pot for the losing team. How is this not collusion? Pretty sure he's offering the deal but not tanking his team. Â Given the steep drop in payouts, hell yes you take the deal. stethant did the math, and as much as it may look that way, no guarantees and I would not put you as a 95%+ favorite, too many variables and freak injuries that could come in to play to not take the $650 lock here. I'd take it. Injuries are the great unknown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Pretty sure he's offering the deal but not tanking his team. Â Â I'd take it. Injuries are the great unknown. Â Â Right, it's more an insurance policy. If the other guy does come back to win, he only collects $100 and the rest gets sent to him. If he holds on to win as is expected, he ships the $50 as the cost to insure the $650 win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 FWIW, I usually oppose these deals but the dropoff in this one is so enormous, it makes sense to take it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ttwarrior4 Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 weird payout Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Grey Pilgrim Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 The offer is fair and just about right under the circumstances. But I would decline and gamble with house money. I'd do it for a $1.00, but not for $50. And pro'ly I wouldn't really do it even for a $1.00. The game is the game. It needs to be played out. Â It is blasphemy to bastardize the Fantasy Super Bowl. Politely decline after letting him/her know it was a fair offer. The game is too big, too important, to agree to a "settlement". Â Good Luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crazysob Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 If you're truly out for the money aspect of it then you'd be stupid to not take that deal.. If you're out for the glory then laugh and take that extra 50 bucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 FWIW, I usually oppose these deals but the dropoff in this one is so enormous, it makes sense to take it. Â Yep, no brainer. Â he may end up coming away from this thinking he was shrewd in getting an extra $50....but so what? You can wave the $650 at him. But if he does come back and win (which I think, based on the windy weather predicted Tuesday night, is a possibility), you made the deal of the century, and took the air out of what would have been a tremendous comeback. Â You could counter and say "The only way I take your deal is this: If I win, I get $650, you get $50...and if you win, you get $500, I get $200". If he thinks he's dead in the water, he'll still take that deal, figuring he's getting an extra $50. Â Either way, take the deal, and enjoy the guaranteed ching! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbf2 Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 TAKE THIS DEAL. Â The Eagles are locked into the 3-seed and have nothing to play for, so they might sit Vick for the second half or even before that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 TAKE THIS DEAL. The Eagles are locked into the 3-seed and have nothing to play for, so they might sit Vick for the second half or even before that.  this is not the reason to take this deal. If the Eagles win out (at home vs the Vikes, at home vs the Cowboys), and the Packers beat the Bears next week in GB, the Eagles get the #2 seed and a bye. The Eagles have EVERYTHING to play for Tuesday night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Â this is not the reason to take this deal. If the Eagles win out (at home vs the Vikes, at home vs the Cowboys), and the Packers beat the Bears next week in GB, the Eagles get the #2 seed and a bye. The Eagles have EVERYTHING to play for Tuesday night. This. Â And it's a very likely scenario too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 (edited) First off, the discrepancy between 1st place and second place is ridiculous. Your league needs to rethink balancing its pay outs more. Â Secondly, if you do agree to the deal and then he manages to beat you - something I highly doubt but is a remote possibility, how do you intend to enforce the deal if he were to disavow it and back out? Â Thirdly, with that lead and those players still going, I'd be sorely tempted to tell him to piss off and put on his man-pants, because you're going to stomp a mudhole in his back and use part of the extra $50 to buy him a dolly to play with in the offseason. The odds of you losing look to be slim & none, and Slim just rode out of town. Â It was a good idea on his part to try to pry an extra $50 out of a lost cause, but I say, "Screw You!" Revel in his defeat! Edited December 27, 2010 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Holy Roller Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Right, it's more an insurance policy. If the other guy does come back to win, he only collects $100 and the rest gets sent to him. If he holds on to win as is expected, he ships the $50 as the cost to insure the $650 win. Â My view also. But I'd probably turn him down unless he was my BFF. And his wife was hot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robert terni Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 i took the deal!!! An extra $650 in my pocket no matter what..what the hells $50...when you get $650 GUARANTEED Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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