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Who are the top 12 picks for next year?


euphy
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We have our championship game this week... and our losers bracket game this week, the winner of the losers bracket gets next year's #1 pick.

 

1. Mike Vick

2. Adrian Peterson

3. Arian Foster

4. MJD

5. CJ

6. Hillis

7. McCoy

8. Gore

9. Ray Rice

10. Roddy White

11. Turner

12. Jamal Charles

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Assuming PPR league:

 

1. AP

2. Foster

3. Vick

4. MJD

5. Ray Rice

6. CJ

7. McCoy

8. Hillis

9. Roddy White

10. Aaron Rodgers

11. Jamaal Charles

12. Andre Johnson

 

I think Gore is going to fall off a cliff statistically next year (just a hunch based on his playing style, injury history, and age). And Turner is just outside top 12 in PPR IMO.

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I really wonder about Vick being in that list. I have him on a team where I can protect two players, and probably will protect him. But his style of play puts him at great risk for injury. I think that would drop him a little in the rankings. Best to plan on not having him available for a few games, and hopefully that wouldn't be during fantasy crunch time.

 

Another guy I would rate lower due to injuries is DeAngelo Williams. He hasn't been able to stay consistently healthy even in a time-sharing situation (at least over the past couple of years). Be interesting to see where he lands for next season, that's for sure. That could have a lot to do with where he is rated as well.

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Vick should go really high in our league; I could see someone taking him at #1 the way things are going now. I know I'd consider it. All TDs are worth the same. They're only worth 5 pts, not 6, but still makes QBs a little more valuable than the 6/4 type scoring. Even if you do have that sort of scoring, since Vick scores more rushing TDs than most you can add that too. Yeah, he's an injury risk, but I think most would take it.

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We have our championship game this week... and our losers bracket game this week, the winner of the losers bracket gets next year's #1 pick.

 

1. Mike Vick

2. Adrian Peterson

3. Arian Foster

4. MJD

5. CJ

6. Hillis

7. McCoy

8. Gore

9. Ray Rice

10. Roddy White

11. Turner

12. Jamal Charles

 

 

Remove Vick & Gore and you have my top ten list and almost in the same order except Ray Rice moves to # 3

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I can't see Ray Rice as a 1st round pick anymore in standard formats. I drafted him this year and he was a thorn in my side most of the season - he couldn't consistently break 100 yds rushing/game and did not score TDs. His receiving yards kept him viable as a starter but he was rarely a difference maker in games through week 14. There are around 12-13 backs with similar or better stats, and I think his less than inspiring performance this year is not simply a result of McGahee. Maybe his early season knee tweak was more than reported, but I wonder if there isn't something up with how Cam Cameron wants/plans to use him?

 

I was hoping he'd fall into the 2nd or 3rd round where you could tolerate his point variance a little better. Foster's value really depends on Kubiak's system sticking around - at least to maximize the chance you'll get production-wise what you're paying for with a 1st round pick. The main difference I have with people's lists is that where you say Hillis, I say McFadden. I think he finally gets it and, as crazy as it is to say, has a stable offseason team situation relative to alot of other potential first rounders. Here's my list:

 

1. AP

2. Foster

3. Vick

4. MJD

5. Jamaal Charles

6. Andre Johnson

7. Chris Johnson

8. Aaron Rodgers

9. Drew Brees

10. Roddy White

11. Michael Turner

12. Darren McFadden

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Vick should go really high in our league; I could see someone taking him at #1 the way things are going now. I know I'd consider it. All TDs are worth the same. They're only worth 5 pts, not 6, but still makes QBs a little more valuable than the 6/4 type scoring. Even if you do have that sort of scoring, since Vick scores more rushing TDs than most you can add that too. Yeah, he's an injury risk, but I think most would take it.

Same in my big money league. All TDs are 6 AND non-traditional TDs are 12. That means any time Vick scores a rushing TD it's gonna be 12 points. We also reward bonus points for longer TDs (2 points extra per 20 yards) - so just the TD points on a 80 yard TD bomb to DeSean nets 14 points not counting yardage points.

 

At the end of the day, if you consider my big money league scoring, it's very realistic that Vick will be the #1 overall pick next season. I wouldn't draft him that high because of his injury risk but someone will take him very early in the 1st round.

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Foster should definitely be above AP. Foster has been the consistently best running back in the league all year. Regardless of matchup, I think he's had only one game all year with less than 90 yards or a td. AP has had some good games, but he's also had flops, been influenced by bad matchups, and had injury problems. If the goal with your number one pick is the most consistent high-scoring player you can get, foster is the obvious choice.

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Foster should definitely be above AP. Foster has been the consistently best running back in the league all year. Regardless of matchup, I think he's had only one game all year with less than 90 yards or a td. AP has had some good games, but he's also had flops, been influenced by bad matchups, and had injury problems. If the goal with your number one pick is the most consistent high-scoring player you can get, foster is the obvious choice.

The reason Foster should NOT be above AP is because this year will have no relevance to next season. AP has consistently been a top RB since he joined the NFL and is entering the absolute prime of his career. AP is also the best all around RB in the NFL, IMO.

 

The way I rank RBs is by pure talent because each year is defined by specific situations that don't carry over the next year. For instance, I had LT ranked as my#1 RB for about 5 straight seasons because I believed him to be the best RB in the league. He did not necessarily end up the top fantasy RB in those 5 seasons but he was in the top 5ish all those years. It's too hard to predict who will be the #1 per position so a better strategy is to rank players based on talent rather than what they did this year. This doesn't mean I won't have Foster in my top 5 RBs because I probably will. I just won't have him #1.

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With a full off-season to heal, I think that Javid Best will jump into the top 12 (especially once people see him running hard and strong next pre-season). I'm not saying that he deserves it, or will finish in the top 12 next year... but I think he will go in many 1st rounds.

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Foster should definitely be above AP. Foster has been the consistently best running back in the league all year. Regardless of matchup, I think he's had only one game all year with less than 90 yards or a td. AP has had some good games, but he's also had flops, been influenced by bad matchups, and had injury problems. If the goal with your number one pick is the most consistent high-scoring player you can get, foster is the obvious choice.

 

I don't know about that. I'm a little worried about Foster next year because they have Ben Tate coming back.

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With a full off-season to heal, I think that Javid Best will jump into the top 12 (especially once people see him running hard and strong next pre-season). I'm not saying that he deserves it, or will finish in the top 12 next year... but I think he will go in many 1st rounds.

 

And here I am hoping he goes under the radar enough to be a rock solid RB2 next year. I'm hoping I can land him in the mid to late 3rd round. And after the season he has had, I wouldn't be surprised if people were scared off. But in that offense, with Calvin Johnson, Stafford, Pettigrew, etc. all emerging into potential All-Pros at their respective positions (maybe a stretch to say that about Stafford since he hasn't stayed healthy long enough), I think Best could be a top 8 RB (especially if they address the OL this offseason).

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1.1 Arian Foster – He's the man for now, but what if owner Bob McNair blows the whole thing up, including the zone-blocking stuff?

1.2 Adrian Peterson – So much uncertainty in Minnesota but he's earned top-3 status in all drafts.

1.3 Maurice Jones-Drew – He's already touched the ball 1495 times (incl. kick returns, playoff games, etc). Chris Johnson has 1037 touches, Peterson has 1370. And now maybe the knee needs a 60,000 mile tune-up. Just throwing that out there.

1.4 Michael Vick – I'd be tempted to take him #1 frankly. You're getting the Andy Reid pass-happy stuff along with essentially a bonus half-RB built into your QB pick. If you like to have fun with this stuff you gamble and take Vick.

1.5 Chris Johnson – Fisher could walk and Heimerdinger (cancer) might not continue. That would be good for CJ. Any new play-caller would be an improvement based on how they used CJ this year. No other stud RB stayed in to pass-protect more than him.

1.6 Ray Rice – even in PPR he's barely scoring ahead of C. Johnson right now. Many rank him higher than me but I like touchdowns, and Rice doesn't get enough of them. If Willis McGahee accepts a pay cut (due $6 million in 2011) he might be back again. OC Cam Cameron likes McGahee as a role player.

1.7 Andre Johnson – He's more likely to post a 100-yard game than any WR (20 since 2008). And now that he's proven his toughness by playing with a wrecked ankle all year, I trust him more than any WR.

1.8 Jamaal Charles – No RB has more rushing yards over the last 22 games: 2,245.

1.9 Roddy White – Top-7 WR three years in a row. Safe, fun to own, plays indoors a lot.

1.10 LeSean McCoy – This will be that pick in PPR leagues where everyone cheers "You got a steal dude," or "Nice pick." I think it's riskier than it appears. He still only averages 14 carries per game. But man he can pay off big at times.....

1.11 Drew Brees – For me, personally, Brees is in my top-6 overall. There's so much to like about a consistent 300-yard passer who has one of the 3 most aggressive playbooks in the league. Brees is always top-4 in pass attempts inside the 10.

1.12 Aaron Rodgers - Same with Brees, only a notch lower in my book because he runs and subjects himself to injury. Still rock-solid, dynamic, and he's surely learned his lesson about sliding. And he gets J. Finley back...

 

Peyton Hillis, where does he go? Does everyone believe he's the real deal/300-carry tailback of the future? I don't know. I suppose he'll go as high as #7 or #8 sometimes....

 

Darren McFadden, Michael Turner, Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Rashard Mendenhall, they could slip in here in many drafts depending on homers and scoring systems. In my league, where we award big distance-TD bonuses, DeSean Jackson is going to climb way up too.

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1.01 Adrian Peterson – Best pure running back in the NFL right now and entering his absolute prime. With that dum-dum coach gone and Brett ‘audible to pass play’ Favre out of the way, I expect AP to begin a 4 year run of complete domination. The left side of that O-line should remain dominant with a healthy Hutchinson.

1.02 Chris Johnson – 2nd best RB in the NFL and still has elite speed. I knew this year would be a disappointment after a career year. I fully expect him to bounce back and be a top 5 RB in 2011 regardless of possible coaching changes.

1.03 Andre Johnson – In a PPR league, top WRs and RBs score basically the same points and AJ is the most reliable WR in a PPR league. He doesn’t get the TDs you’d like from a #1 WR but he’ll log 10-150 regularly. In 2010 he only had 3 games where he didn’t score in the double digits. He’s also in his prime with a proven QB and his defense is bad enough that they have to keep scoring to win games.

1.04 Roddy White – This guy was my #3 WR going into 2010 and he was even better than that. There’s not much to worry about with White and his up-and-coming QB. He’s the defacto go-to-guy and that won’t change anytime soon

1.05 Calvin Johnson – Similar to AJ above, this guy is a BEAST. He even logged 2 games of 140+ yards with Drew Stanton throwing him the ball. Plus he gets TDs. If he had a more proven QB like AJ and White, he’d probably be the #1 WR on my board.

1.06 Arian Foster - Obviously this guy proved studly but right now he’s only a 1 year wonder. With possible coaching changes and defenses preparing for him, he’s riskier than AP and CJ. After seeing the sophomore slumps of Ray Rice and Matt Forte, this guy needs to prove himself another year before I draft him as a top 5.

1.07 LeSean McCoy – He’s not completely proven yet but I’ve seen enough. Playing on a pass-happy team (good for ppr) and less of a concern than Vick and DeSean for opposing defenses, this guy should slide by rather easily next season. I also expect an uptick in his numbers as he gets better with another season under his belt. Basically, I don’t see him doing worse than this year and he’s the 3rd best RB in my big money league.

1.08 Hakeem Nicks – drafting in the first 3 rounds is all about risk-aversion which is why my list is WR heavy. I had Nicks ranked as my #13 going into 2010 and he’s sitting at #8 after missing 3 games. Eli, maybe of all QBs, loves to lock onto a guy (see the Plaxico Burris days) and Eli loves him some Nicks – PLUS, he has the elite ability to match. I have more confidence in Nicks than I do in any of the other RBs or WRs still not mentioned. Don't be surprised if Nicks is the top WR next season. When healthy, he's Andre Johnson consistent.

1.09 Ray Rice – This one is tough. Rice was decent this season but his youth and pass-catching ability make him a top 10. Add in that BAL is a perennial playoff team and his O-coordinator loves to use the RB. Rice is a safe top 10 and the next safest RB, IMO.

1.10 Jamaal Charles – He obviously has elite ability and doing what he did in a time-share only makes me like him more. What worries me is his coach and his team. I would love to see what he could do with 300 carries and 50+ receptions. Maybe we’ll find out in 2011

1.11 Miles Austin – This is a risky pick with the emergence of Dez Bryant but if you look at what he did at the beginning of the season, it’s sick. Romo loves him and 3 of his first 4 games he hovered at 10-150 (in 3 separate games). Dallas fell apart and then Kitna fell in love with Bryant (probably because his practice reps were with Bryant). I had Austin as my #4 WR heading into 2010 and I expect something similar in 2011 with a rejuvenated team and newly focused HC.

1.12 Reggie Wayne – The only thing inconsistent about Reggie Wayne is his TD output from year to year. Similar to Eric Moulds in his prime years, Reggie seems like an every-other-year performer (with respect to TDs) which means he should get double digit TDs in 2011. Peyton likes his TE and slot WR a lot but Wayne will get his to be sure. He’s a safe #1 WR and I believe him to be less risky than McFadden, Forte, Hillis, Bowe, Lloyd and Jennings. WRs have proven time and again to be good into their mid-30s and Wayne, like Peyton, never misses games. Did I mention he’s the #1 WR for the best QB in the game?

 

E2A: What I forgot to premise is that I assumed ppr league and I did not factor in QBs since scoring for that position is not consistent. Bottom line, aside from my big money league that has unusual scoring, I never draft QBs in the 1st round and I've stuck with that in this analysis even though I would consider Vick in certain scoring formats.

Edited by Brentastic
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1.01 Adrian Peterson – Best pure running back in the NFL right now and entering his absolute prime. With that dum-dum coach gone and Brett ‘audible to pass play’ Favre out of the way, I expect AP to begin a 4 year run of complete domination. The left side of that O-line should remain dominant with a healthy Hutchinson.

1.02 Chris Johnson – 2nd best RB in the NFL and still has elite speed. I knew this year would be a disappointment after a career year. I fully expect him to bounce back and be a top 5 RB in 2011 regardless of possible coaching changes.

1.03 Andre Johnson – In a PPR league, top WRs and RBs score basically the same points and AJ is the most reliable WR in a PPR league. He doesn’t get the TDs you’d like from a #1 WR but he’ll log 10-150 regularly. In 2010 he only had 3 games where he didn’t score in the double digits. He’s also in his prime with a proven QB and his defense is bad enough that they have to keep scoring to win games.

1.04 Roddy White – This guy was my #3 WR going into 2010 and he was even better than that. There’s not much to worry about with White and his up-and-coming QB. He’s the defacto go-to-guy and that won’t change anytime soon

1.05 Calvin Johnson – Similar to AJ above, this guy is a BEAST. He even logged 2 games of 140+ yards with Drew Stanton throwing him the ball. Plus he gets TDs. If he had a more proven QB like AJ and White, he’d probably be the #1 WR on my board.

1.06 Arian Foster - Obviously this guy proved studly but right now he’s only a 1 year wonder. With possible coaching changes and defenses preparing for him, he’s riskier than AP and CJ. After seeing the sophomore slumps of Ray Rice and Matt Forte, this guy needs to prove himself another year before I draft him as a top 5.

1.07 LeSean McCoy – He’s not completely proven yet but I’ve seen enough. Playing on a pass-happy team (good for ppr) and less of a concern than Vick and DeSean for opposing defenses, this guy should slide by rather easily next season. I also expect an uptick in his numbers as he gets better with another season under his belt. Basically, I don’t see him doing worse than this year and he’s the 3rd best RB in my big money league.

1.08 Hakeem Nicks – drafting in the first 3 rounds is all about risk-aversion which is why my list is WR heavy. I had Nicks ranked as my #13 going into 2010 and he’s sitting at #8 after missing 3 games. Eli, maybe of all QBs, loves to lock onto a guy (see the Plaxico Burris days) and Eli loves him some Nicks – PLUS, he has the elite ability to match. I have more confidence in Nicks than I do in any of the other RBs or WRs still not mentioned. Don't be surprised if Nicks is the top WR next season. When healthy, he's Andre Johnson consistent.

1.09 Ray Rice – This one is tough. Rice was decent this season but his youth and pass-catching ability make him a top 10. Add in that BAL is a perennial playoff team and his O-coordinator loves to use the RB. Rice is a safe top 10 and the next safest RB, IMO.

1.10 Jamaal Charles – He obviously has elite ability and doing what he did in a time-share only makes me like him more. What worries me is his coach and his team. I would love to see what he could do with 300 carries and 50+ receptions. Maybe we’ll find out in 2011

1.11 Miles Austin – This is a risky pick with the emergence of Dez Bryant but if you look at what he did at the beginning of the season, it’s sick. Romo loves him and 3 of his first 4 games he hovered at 10-150 (in 3 separate games). Dallas fell apart and then Kitna fell in love with Bryant (probably because his practice reps were with Bryant). I had Austin as my #4 WR heading into 2010 and I expect something similar in 2011 with a rejuvenated team and newly focused HC.

1.12 Reggie Wayne – The only thing inconsistent about Reggie Wayne is his TD output from year to year. Similar to Eric Moulds in his prime years, Reggie seems like an every-other-year performer (with respect to TDs) which means he should get double digit TDs in 2011. Peyton likes his TE and slot WR a lot but Wayne will get his to be sure. He’s a safe #1 WR and I believe him to be less risky than McFadden, Forte, Hillis, Bowe, Lloyd and Jennings. WRs have proven time and again to be good into their mid-30s and Wayne, like Peyton, never misses games. Did I mention he’s the #1 WR for the best QB in the game?

 

E2A: What I forgot to premise is that I assumed ppr league and I did not factor in QBs since scoring for that position is not consistent. Bottom line, aside from my big money league that has unusual scoring, I never draft QBs in the 1st round and I've stuck with that in this analysis even though I would consider Vick in certain scoring formats.

 

Nice list, but how can you not have MJD in your top ten after his excellent 2010 season? Mles Austin is too much of a risk cause of Bryant and a very disappointing 2010 season.

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Nice list, but how can you not have MJD in your top ten after his excellent 2010 season? Mles Austin is too much of a risk cause of Bryant and a very disappointing 2010 season.

Yeah, I partly agree. The thing that bothers me with MJD is that he really didn't turn it on until the last half of the season. Similar to Ochocinco in his glory days - at the end of the year his stats look great but during the season his inconsistency is painful. I love his ability but hate his team, QB and inconsistency. Someone will draft him in the first round but it probably won't be me.

 

As far as Miles goes, in a season and a half with Romo, he's a statistical freak much like AJ and a physical specimen too with lower body power. If Garrett remains the coach, they will throw a lot and he's one of the few WRs that can put up AJ-like numbers. I think it's a calculated risk drafting him in the first round but one I'm willing to take. If Romo had finished the season, Miles Austin would be a top 5 WR this season. I mean, he literally disappeared with Kitna under center. I think he went 4 straight games with only 2 receptions because Kitna loved Dez the same way Romo loves Miles. With a healthy Romo, Austin is a top 5 WR easily, IMO.

 

Great points though :wacko:

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How good will Adrian Peterson be if the Vikes don't get a QB and opposing defenses stack 8 in the box?

AP is so good, I don't think it matters. Look at what Hillis did with Delhomme and the rookie McCoy (granted, better than Delhomme). Peterson is a better RB than Hillis and he's also a home-run hitter. I'm not worried about AP no matter what the QB situation is.

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A lot of White and Andre love WR wise in the 1st round...I say where is Calvin?

 

I will go on record right now and say Calvin is the # 1 WR next year barring injury (worst case # 2 behind Andre).

 

Good young QB.

ALWAYS gets his.

Plays in a dome.

MUCH easier schedule next year. They get the NFC South and AFC West. And it looks like their extra games will be Wash and either SF or Zona assuming Det beats Minny on Sunday. GREAT matchups.

Team on the come BIG TIME.

 

I know I'll get the Stafford is always hurt stuff, and that is fair. And yes he can get hurt, but really anyone can. And YES Staff may be more of a risk, but if he is healthy and plays I think Calvin is the # 1 WR next year. As of now I plan on keeping him in my league. I LOVE his upside.

Edited by giantsfan
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A lot of White and Andre love WR wise in the 1st round...I say where is Calvin?

 

I will go on record right now and say Calvin is the # 1 WR next year barring injury (worst case # 2 behind Andre).

 

Good young QB.

ALWAYS gets his.

Plays in a dome.

MUCH easier schedule next year. They get the NFC South and AFC West. And it looks like their extra games will be Wash and either SF or Zona assuming Det beats Minny on Sunday. GREAT matchups.

Team on the come BIG TIME.

 

I know I'll get the Stafford is always hurt stuff, and that is fair. And yes he can get hurt, but really anyone can. And YES Staff may be more of a risk, but if he is healthy and plays I think Calvin is the # 1 WR next year. As of now I plan on keeping him in my league. I LOVE his upside.

 

 

Ahem:

1.05 Calvin Johnson – Similar to AJ above, this guy is a BEAST. He even logged 2 games of 140+ yards with Drew Stanton throwing him the ball. Plus he gets TDs. If he had a more proven QB like AJ and White, he’d probably be the #1 WR on my board.
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Ahem:

Misse dyou buddy...my bad. We agree obviously. With a healthy Staff sky is the limit for CJ. Look at what he did this year with Hill and Stanton (everyone said he'd be awful with Stanton...). Look at what he did in the past with awful QB's. I think he did a little better than Fitz who also had scrubby QB's. Plus his schedule looks great for next year like I said.

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