Who are the top 12 picks for next year?

[electricrelish]

Without reading the posts yet:

 

1) Arian Foster

2) AP

3) Chris Johnson

4) Jamal Charles

5) Michael Vick

6) Aaron Rodgers

7) Daren Mcfaden

8) Peyton Hillis

9) Michael Turner

10) Lesean McCoy

 

Michael Turner? Really? Obviously, this list must be for standard scoring. Turner is currently the number 5 rusher for the year, so I'll give you that. However, he's had 7 games this year where he scored less than 10 pts in standard scoring. His overall consistency has been a huge disappointment. He'll be 29 years old next year, and I don't see him getting better. In my opinion, he wasn't worthy of a top ten pick in 2010, and I doubt he'll be a first rounder in 2011.

[Brentastic]

Misse dyou buddy...my bad. We agree obviously. With a healthy Staff sky is the limit for CJ. Look at what he did this year with Hill and Stanton (everyone said he'd be awful with Stanton...). Look at what he did in the past with awful QB's. I think he did a little better than Fitz who also had scrubby QB's. Plus his schedule looks great for next year like I said.

Just razzin ya. But yeah, the guy is a beast. I actually like him better with Hill than I do with Stafford - not sure if that can be backed by stats but that's my perception anyways. He's a freak of nature regardless and should be a top 3 no problem.

[electricrelish]

A lot of White and Andre love WR wise in the 1st round...I say where is Calvin?

 

I will go on record right now and say Calvin is the # 1 WR next year barring injury (worst case # 2 behind Andre).

 

Good young QB.

ALWAYS gets his.

Plays in a dome.

MUCH easier schedule next year. They get the NFC South and AFC West. And it looks like their extra games will be Wash and either SF or Zona assuming Det beats Minny on Sunday. GREAT matchups.

Team on the come BIG TIME.

 

I know I'll get the Stafford is always hurt stuff, and that is fair. And yes he can get hurt, but really anyone can. And YES Staff may be more of a risk, but if he is healthy and plays I think Calvin is the # 1 WR next year. As of now I plan on keeping him in my league. I LOVE his upside.

 

Every year, we hear that this is the year that Calvin breaks out. He had a good 2010 season, but he has disappointed his owners on many occasions like this past weekend. I would take Roddy White, Hakeem Nicks and Andre Johnson before I picked Calvin.

Edited December 28, 2010 by electricrelish

[giantsfan]

Just razzin ya. But yeah, the guy is a beast. I actually like him better with Hill than I do with Stafford - not sure if that can be backed by stats but that's my perception anyways. He's a freak of nature regardless and should be a top 3 no problem.

I argued the same thing, better with Hill than Staff, so not crazy. But big picture his big future goes hand and hand with a healthy Stafford IMO. That is why I think if bith are healthy next year could be huge for CJ.

[Brentastic]

I argued the same thing, better with Hill than Staff, so not crazy. But big picture his big future goes hand and hand with a healthy Stafford IMO. That is why I think if bith are healthy next year could be huge for CJ.

That's what makes Calvin so appealing, IMO - is that this year proved that he can dominate no matter which QB is in there. If they keep the same 3 QBs on the roster, there's almost no risk (barring injury of course). Like you mentioned, other elites such as Fitz, clearly cannot produce with their crappy QBs but Megatron sure can.

[giantsfan]

Every year, we hear about this is the year that Calvin breaks out. He had a good 2010 season, but he has disappointed his owners on many occasions like this past weekend. I would take Roddy White, Hakeem Nicks and Andre Johnson before I picked Calvin.

See this confuses me (not that you would take AJ or White over Calvin...no way I'd take Nicks). How can you act as if Calvin hasn't been huge already?

 

08 he had 80, 1300, 12

10 he had 80, 1100, 12 (and that is if he misses the last game).

 

As for disappointing owners are you serious?

 

1. He helped get many owners there.

2. He left early 4th Q otherwise would have clearly had more.

3. What did Andre do this past weekend?

4. Andre had a handful of games where he didn't do great and missed 2 games?

 

ALL WR's have a few down games...ALL of them.

 

And BTW, Calvin had those two years above with QB's that you and I could perform as well as according to many on here. Imagine if he gets a good solid QB like Stafford for 16 games? Come on now dude.

[giantsfan]

That's what makes Calvin so appealing, IMO - is that this year proved that he can dominate no matter which QB is in there. If they keep the same 3 QBs on the roster, there's almost no risk (barring injury of course). Like you mentioned, other elites such as Fitz, clearly cannot produce with their crappy QBs but Megatron sure can.

Agreed, he will be great regardless, he has clearly proven that. BUT to be that elite stud stud like I think he can be a healthy Stafford would help that greatly. Although he was still a top 3-5 WR this year anyway, so who knows if he needs Stafford to be elite big picture...LOL.

[ttwarrior4]

not touching hillis , im sure he will be blackballed

[electricrelish]

See this confuses me (not that you would take AJ or White over Calvin...no way I'd take Nicks). How can you act as if Calvin hasn't been huge already?

 

08 he had 80, 1300, 12

10 he had 80, 1100, 12 (and that is if he misses the last game).

 

As for disappointing owners are you serious?

 

1. He helped get many owners there.

2. He left early 4th Q otherwise would have clearly had more.

3. What did Andre do this past weekend?

4. Andre had a handful of games where he didn't do great and missed 2 games?

 

ALL WR's have a few down games...ALL of them.

 

And BTW, Calvin had those two years above with QB's that you and I could perform as well as according to many on here. Imagine if he gets a good solid QB like Stafford for 16 games? Come on now dude.

 

1. Calvin Johnson had an excellent year. Currently, he is the number 7 WR in receiving with 77 receptions, 1,120 yards and 12 TDs per NFL.com.
   
2. Unfortunate time to get hurt during fantasy championship weekend, but these things happen.
   
3. Andre Johnson has been hurt all year with a bad ankle. Missing an entire game during championship weekend is also unfortunate.
   
4. Despite missing games, Andre Johnson is currently the 4 WR with 86 receptions, 1,216 yards and 8 TDs. He has an excellent track record. I prefer him to CJ at this point.
   
5. Hakeem Nicks is very close to Calvin's numbers despite missing multiple games this season. Nicks has 79 catches for 1,052 yards and 11 TDs. I see Nicks as only getting better.
   

 

I like CJ, but I just like Roddy, AJ and Nicks better. CJ is my number 4 receiver for 2011 at this point. Let's face it, they are all really close, so it has to do with your preference.

[giantsfan]

1. Calvin Johnson had an excellent year. Currently, he is the number 7 WR in receiving with 77 receptions, 1,120 yards and 12 TDs per NFL.com.
   
2. Unfortunate time to get hurt during fantasy championship weekend, but these things happen.
   
3. Andre Johnson has been hurt all year with a bad ankle. Missing an entire game during championship weekend is also unfortunate.
   
4. Despite missing games, Andre Johnson is currently the 4 WR with 86 receptions, 1,216 yards and 8 TDs. He has an excellent track record. I prefer him to CJ at this point.
   
5. Hakeem Nicks is very close to Calvin's numbers despite missing multiple games this season. Nicks has 79 catches for 1,052 yards and 11 TDs. I see Nicks as only getting better.
   

 

I like CJ, but I just like Roddy, AJ and Nicks better. CJ is my number 4 receiver for 2011 at this point. Let's face it, they are all really close, so it has to do with your preference.

In my league he is the # 3 WR behind White and Bowe, and not that far behind (like within 10 points overall).

 

Like I said, I can see Andre as the # 1. I could see taking White. I think I would put Calvin 3 worst case.

 

BUT as you said you are really splitting hairs here. They are all great. I have CJ as my # 1. You have him as your # 4. Some have White as # 1. With these top guys they are all great and some will take A and some will take B.

 

My only points on Calvin are he has a GREAT schedule next year AND he has been up in the top 5 or so 2 of the past 3 years (hurt the other) with at best whatever QB play. If Stafford stays healthy and gives CJ solid QB play he could explode even more. I think he has the most room to grow of those tops guys. Nicks would be a close 2nd. That is my point on him. I think he can keep going up. Meanwhile I think we have seen the best of Andre and White (which BTW is pretty darn good). And since CJ is already in the conversation not too far behind at worst...watch out IMO.

Edited December 29, 2010 by giantsfan

[ABearWithFurniture]

And here I am hoping he goes under the radar enough to be a rock solid RB2 next year. I'm hoping I can land him in the mid to late 3rd round. And after the season he has had, I wouldn't be surprised if people were scared off. But in that offense, with Calvin Johnson, Stafford, Pettigrew, etc. all emerging into potential All-Pros at their respective positions (maybe a stretch to say that about Stafford since he hasn't stayed healthy long enough), I think Best could be a top 8 RB (especially if they address the OL this offseason).

 

God I love this thinking...

[JUMbotron]

1.1 Arian Foster – He's the man for now, but what if owner Bob McNair blows the whole thing up, including the zone-blocking stuff?

1.2 Adrian Peterson – So much uncertainty in Minnesota but he's earned top-3 status in all drafts.

1.3 Maurice Jones-Drew – He's already touched the ball 1495 times (incl. kick returns, playoff games, etc). Chris Johnson has 1037 touches, Peterson has 1370. And now maybe the knee needs a 60,000 mile tune-up. Just throwing that out there.

1.4 Michael Vick – I'd be tempted to take him #1 frankly. You're getting the Andy Reid pass-happy stuff along with essentially a bonus half-RB built into your QB pick. If you like to have fun with this stuff you gamble and take Vick.

1.5 Chris Johnson – Fisher could walk and Heimerdinger (cancer) might not continue. That would be good for CJ. Any new play-caller would be an improvement based on how they used CJ this year. No other stud RB stayed in to pass-protect more than him.

1.6 Ray Rice – even in PPR he's barely scoring ahead of C. Johnson right now. Many rank him higher than me but I like touchdowns, and Rice doesn't get enough of them. If Willis McGahee accepts a pay cut (due $6 million in 2011) he might be back again. OC Cam Cameron likes McGahee as a role player.

1.7 Andre Johnson – He's more likely to post a 100-yard game than any WR (20 since 2008). And now that he's proven his toughness by playing with a wrecked ankle all year, I trust him more than any WR.

1.8 Jamaal Charles – No RB has more rushing yards over the last 22 games: 2,245.

1.9 Roddy White – Top-7 WR three years in a row. Safe, fun to own, plays indoors a lot.

1.10 LeSean McCoy – This will be that pick in PPR leagues where everyone cheers "You got a steal dude," or "Nice pick." I think it's riskier than it appears. He still only averages 14 carries per game. But man he can pay off big at times.....

1.11 Drew Brees – For me, personally, Brees is in my top-6 overall. There's so much to like about a consistent 300-yard passer who has one of the 3 most aggressive playbooks in the league. Brees is always top-4 in pass attempts inside the 10.

1.12 Aaron Rodgers - Same with Brees, only a notch lower in my book because he runs and subjects himself to injury. Still rock-solid, dynamic, and he's surely learned his lesson about sliding. And he gets J. Finley back...

 

Peyton Hillis, where does he go? Does everyone believe he's the real deal/300-carry tailback of the future? I don't know. I suppose he'll go as high as #7 or #8 sometimes....

 

Darren McFadden, Michael Turner, Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Rashard Mendenhall, they could slip in here in many drafts depending on homers and scoring systems. In my league, where we award big distance-TD bonuses, DeSean Jackson is going to climb way up too.

 

Following up, I compiled my list based on what I expected the consensus herd to declare, not what my personal list would be.

 

In my experience in this industry, the initial "Vegas" line, set by the herd, will place the 2010 #1 RB -- Arian Foster -- as the #1 overall pick of 2011, barring some crazy offseason stuff. Maybe #2 or #3 here and there, but still.....Foster is thumb-tacked up there. Done deal. They regurgitate last year's stats in this year's upcoming rankings.

 

The herd won't put Hakeem Nicks or Miles Austin, or even Calvin Johnson in the 1st round of 90% of fantasy drafts... My list has Calvin as #9 overall, so I'm down with him. But the herd will knock him down. His industry ADP will barely reach 2.5 because of the anti-Lions sentiment.

 

I do think the herd will loosen their RB-stubborn chokehold and we'll see QBs Brees and Rodgers leak into the late 1st round consistently. Andre Johnson should muscle into the 1st round in 8 of 10 drafts as well. It feels like Roddy's turn to peak into the late 1st round too. I'm speculating of course.

 

Now, if this thread is about our personal Top-12 I'll reload and fire off a new list. Fun stuff.

Edited December 29, 2010 by JUMbotron

[giantsfan]

Following up, I compiled my list based on what I expected the consensus herd to declare, not what my personal list would be.

 

In my experience in this industry, the initial "Vegas" line, set by the herd, will place the 2010 #1 RB -- Arian Foster -- as the #1 overall pick of 2011, barring some crazy offseason stuff. Maybe #2 or #3 here and there, but still.....Foster is thumb-tacked up there. Done deal. They regurgitate last year's stats in this year's upcoming rankings.

 

The herd won't put Hakeem Nicks or Miles Austin, or even Calvin Johnson in the 1st round of 90% of fantasy drafts... My list has Calvin as #9 overall, so I'm down with him. But the herd will knock him down. His industry ADP will barely reach 2.5 because of the anti-Lions sentiment.

 

I do think the herd will loosen their RB-stubborn chokehold and we'll see QBs Brees and Rodgers leak into the late 1st round consistently. Andre Johnson should muscle into the 1st round in 8 of 10 drafts as well. It feels like Roddy's turn to peak into the late 1st round too. I'm speculating of course.

 

Now, if this thread is about our personal Top-12 I'll reload and fire off a new list. Fun stuff.

I hear you JUM. Now reload and fire off your personal top 12....

[McBoog]

Of the six teams I had this year, I made the playoffs in all six leagues (all PPR/redraft). I ended up with a first a second, two fourths and two "one and dones".

 

The two best teams were where I picked WR, WR, RB, WR/TE. This is the first year I broke from my traditional "draft patterns" and it is going to be confusing as he[[ to try to come up with a draft board and top 50 for a while.

 

It is hard for me to look at any list right now and figure out who to take. Right now I like Roddy White and Andre Johnson in almost any spot I pick in the first round. I know I will come to my senses at some point, but the results are hard to argue with.

[MTSuper7]

Assuming PPR league:

 

1. AP

2. Foster

3. Vick

4. MJD

5. Ray Rice

6. CJ

7. McCoy

8. Hillis

9. Roddy White

10. Aaron Rodgers

11. Jamaal Charles

12. Andre Johnson

 

I think Gore is going to fall off a cliff statistically next year (just a hunch based on his playing style, injury history, and age). And Turner is just outside top 12 in PPR IMO.

 

Bump.

 

I probably move MJD down to about 10 and put CJ just ahead of Vick now. But I'll stick with the rest. Intereting to see how our projections from the end of last year look now. I still don't know if I trust Hillis to be as good this year, but for now I'll leave him be.

[Sturphy]

I still don't know if I trust Hillis to be as good this year, but for now I'll leave him be.

I believe the expression is, "one year doth not maketh a stud".

 

Although, it's hard not to rank him that way.

[delfamdelfam]

AP

Foster

Johnson

Charles

McCoy

Rice

Vick

A. Johnson

R. White

C. Johnson

MJD

Mendenhall/McFadden

[Avernus]

Foster

Vick

AD

Johnson

Charles

Rice

AJ

Calvin

McCoy

Rodgers

 

 

this is a rough copy....I'm sure it'll change in a day.. a week....etc..

[osu1322]

on MJD I still think he's a first rounder but I'd be nervous drafting him..... He just had knee surgery and will just finish healing before the season starts...

 

on Hillis, I love the guy. (mainly cause I'm a Browns fan) but I don't see him going in the first rd unless someone has to have him.... He will definitely drafted in the second rd and if he falls any further grab him cause he will be a steal.

 

I agree that Vick is the #1 QB. He was ranked as the 15th RB last year and that was before u even consider his passing.

[Avernus]

on MJD I still think he's a first rounder but I'd be nervous drafting him..... He just had knee surgery and will just finish healing before the season starts...

 

on Hillis, I love the guy. (mainly cause I'm a Browns fan) but I don't see him going in the first rd unless someone has to have him.... He will definitely drafted in the second rd and if he falls any further grab him cause he will be a steal.

 

I agree that Vick is the #1 QB. He was ranked as the 15th RB last year and that was before u even consider his passing.

 

I'll let someone else draft MJD and Hillis....

[RJV]

I'll let someone else draft MJD and Hillis....

Amen.Don'tt need the headache. Hillis was impressive last season BUT I tend to wait till I seeconsistencyy over a 2 year span at least.

Edited July 31, 2011 by RJV

[giantsfan]

I have to disagree on MJD.

 

Guy had over 1600 total yards and 7 TD's in a "down" injury plagued 14 game season.

 

In 3 of his previous 4 seasons he had at least 14 TD's (had 9 in the other).

 

I think he can be penciled in for 1600 total yards, 45 plus catches, and like 12 or so TD's.

 

Top 7 RB to me.

 

Think I would go:

 

AP

Foster

Johnson

Charles

MJD

Rice

McCoy

 

Think I see a drop off after those 7 down to Gore/Mendy/Turner/SJax.

 

WR I like the following:

 

Andre

Calvin

White

Fitz

 

Nicks

Jennings

 

Wide open after that Dallas guys/Bowe/Wayne/VJax/Wallace.

 

I like the big 4 for sure (Fitz could be # 1 with Kolb). Then I like the next 2 for sure. I have Jennings 6 because people are under valuing what Finley being back will do to Jennings' value IMO.