Packers -10 vs the Bears this week?

[rocknrobn26]

I don't think Lovie does the "Week #17 sit and rest routine" even w/ the #2 seed in his pocket. He wants an undefeated Division title under his belt.

Discuss.....

[Ed Hoyle]

I don't think Lovie does the "Week #17 sit and rest routine" even w/ the #2 seed in his pocket. He wants an undefeated Division title under his belt.

Discuss.....

 

 

I agree with this.

But, I think putting GB -10 is a stretch. They dismantled the Gians last week, and could do the same with some Cutler-Favresk mistakes. That said, GB would need to put an "entire" game together again. They looked abysmal against Detroit prior to AR going down. He had 46 passing yards up to that point.

 

It all depends on which team for both shows up. Either way it should be a good game.

[Square]

I wouldn't put money on this game for anything but it'll be a fun one to watch.

[redrumjuice]

He wants an undefeated Division title under his belt.

 

That is meaningless. No way he or they play hard for 4 qrts.

[Bronco Billy]

Pretty obvious what is happening here.

 

The bookmakers expect ATL to pound CAR in the early flight of games with the #1 seed in the NFC on the line, leaving CHI with nothing to play for in the second flight since the PHI loss to MIN locks them into the 3rd seed.

 

I'd expect the CHI starters to play no more than the first half, and more likely one quarter +/-. GB ought to pound the CHI second/third stringers in the 2nd half and cover that 10 pts handily. The only thing keeping the line as low as -10 is that there is the remote possibility that CAR can beat ATL and make the game meaningful to CHI's s seeding. Don't forget that the line on this game probably would have been GB -4 to -5 if both teams had everything at stake. That extra 4 to 5 pts is nothing given the circumstances.

 

Now, if CAR by some miracle manages to spring an upset, the line will drop like a lead balloon right before the game. I'd expect the line to rise if ATL gets way out in front of CAR as that game progresses and more money starts going on GB.

 

ETA - amazing that a genius like Ed can't figure this simple matter out while someone as dumb as me can.

Edited December 30, 2010 by Bronco Billy

[gilthorp]

Robn, what he told the media yesterday and what he'll do are two seperate things. What is the real difference to him if he goes 5-1 or 6-0 in the division? Will Moses Moreno present him with some award in the off season? I very much think his main motivation will be to find some way to keep the Packers out of the playoffs - period.

[Bronco Billy]

I very much think his main motivation will be to find some way to keep the Packers out of the playoffs - period.

 

If Lovie plays Cutler all game in a meaningless game and Matthews or some other Packers tweaks Cutler enough in the second half to keep him out of their second round playoff game, Lovie is going to be in serious trouble. There were significant concerns about his job security before this season started and I don't think CHI fans are particularly enamored of him despite the success this year.

 

Personally I don't think Lovie is dumb enough to put his stars at additional risk in the second half if there is nothing to be gained. He always impressed me as a long-term guy rather than seeking short term satisfaction.

[rocknrobn26]

Robn, what he told the media yesterday and what he'll do are two seperate things. What is the real difference to him if he goes 5-1 or 6-0 in the division? Will Moses Moreno present him with some award in the off season? I very much think his main motivation will be to find some way to keep the Packers out of the playoffs - period.

 

That and he wants to keep up the momentum, which is hugh.

He is not going to boot this game away.

Will they play the game like a midseason game? NO, but look for a lot of running and safe passes. By the half if they are down 14 or more, Hello Caleb Hanie, Kahlil Bell, et al.

[Ed Hoyle]

Pretty obvious what is happening here.

 

The bookmakers expect ATL to pound CAR in the early flight of games with the #1 seed in the NFC on the line, leaving CHI with nothing to play for in the second flight since the PHI loss to MIN locks them into the 3rd seed.

 

I'd expect the CHI starters to play no more than the first half, and more likely one quarter +/-. GB ought to pound the CHI second/third stringers in the 2nd half and cover that 10 pts handily. The only thing keeping the line as low as -10 is that there is the remote possibility that CAR can beat ATL and make the game meaningful to CHI's s seeding. Don't forget that the line on this game probably would have been GB -4 to -5 if both teams had everything at stake. That extra 4 to 5 pts is nothing given the circumstances.

 

Now, if CAR by some miracle manages to spring an upset, the line will drop like a lead balloon right before the game. I'd expect the line to rise if ATL gets way out in front of CAR as that game progresses and more money starts going on GB.

 

ETA - amazing that a genius like Ed can't figure this simple matter out while someone as dumb as me can.

 

 

Wow Bronco. You aren't a dumbass. You ARE just plain and simple a jackass...but that's why I like it here. (Sometimes it's enough fulfillment to aggravate enough to piss people off. There are a lot of knowledgeable folks on here. PiratesownNinja, Chavez, Big John, and yourself. Just sometimes most folks get so "homerish" about their teams they won't look at other sides of the situation. i.e.-Favre. If anyone supports him, they're blowing him, nuthuggers, etc. That's where the "thick skin" needs to come into play to ignore. (The dumbass comment was more of a jab. I've actually been following some of your posts on Kubiak and agree, too, that Houston is in decent shape if they can get some help via FA or draft.) What many in GB can't see past, is YES, Favre has been a drama queen the past years. But, there is a reason that he waffled with the Pack. Some believe TT told him flat out he's not his QB and that's when the whole thing started. IMHO, TT was wrong there. No one can argue AR is good, but when you've got a franchise that will stand behind a guy...that's what you try to protect. (This out to get Pirate and Chavez going, as well as BPWallace.) But it's true.

 

GB played better as a "team" with Favre and Holmgren/Wolf" than they have been under AR, MM, and TT. Say it's rebuilding, say it's injuries. But the teams of the 90's had a way of playing better with what they had. JMHO. This argument could go on forever and most will say I'm wrong.

 

 

 

As for the upcoming GB/Bears game, the INDY collapse a few years ago when they rested people is why Lovie may play his starters for at least half. If they are up then they'll probably sit for the second half. But, I think the more solidifying move for Lovie's job is to play out to win. If GB does to the Bears what NE did, they could lose all momentum going into the playoffs.

 

We'll see. Either way, GB is playing for their life and it could be a good game. Kinda ironic how the NFL flex schedule came into play and make this game meaningless on some aspects. Maybe a conspiracy to help GB a little bit?? (That was a joke.)

Edited December 30, 2010 by Ed Hoyle

[Fatman]

The line was -6 before the PHI/MIN, FWIW...

[Bronco Billy]

Wow Bronco. You aren't a dumbass. You ARE just plain and simple a jackass...but that's why I like it. (Sometimes it's enough fulfillment to aggravate enough to piss people off. There are a lot of knowledgeable folks on here. PiratesownNinja, Chavez, Big John, and yourself. (The dumbass comment was more of a jab. I've actually been following some of your posts on Kubiak and agree, too, that Houston is in decent shape if they can get some help via FA or draft.)

 

 

I knew this already. Sticking in some barbs is a hugh part of the appeal of posting at the Huddle. I expect to get at least as much as I give.

[Randall]

Robn, what he told the media yesterday and what he'll do are two seperate things. What is the real difference to him if he goes 5-1 or 6-0 in the division? Will Moses Moreno present him with some award in the off season? I very much think his main motivation will be to find some way to keep the Packers out of the playoffs - period.

 

 

Weren't the Bengals undefeated in their division last year? How'd that work ut for them this year?

 

Sure they want to beat the much hated Packers but if Cutler or Peppers gets hurt he could lose his job.

[bpwallace49]

That and he wants to keep up the momentum, which is hugh.

He is not going to boot this game away.

Will they play the game like a midseason game? NO, but look for a lot of running and safe passes. By the half if they are down 14 or more, Hello Caleb Hanie, Kahlil Bell, et al.

 

This is spot on.

 

But I think the Packers come out very hot, with the playoffs on the line for them. I also think that if ONE player get hurt, or even if Cutler takes a really hard sack from Clay Mathews, that they will go into protection mode pretty quickly.

 

It is a meaningless game for them unles carolina shocks the world earlier. The Bears are playing for a super bowl at this point . . . so togo hard the whole game for "momentum" is silly. IMO they go hard for a quarter or two (depending on the score) and then they sit back. Plus they may meet again in the playoffs, so the game plan will be very vanilla on the Bears side.

[Bronco Billy]

Plus they may meet again in the playoffs, so the game plan will be very vanilla on the Bears side.

 

I don't think these teams have many wrinkles to hide from each other...

[BearBroncos]

If Lovie plays Cutler all game in a meaningless game and Matthews or some other Packers tweaks Cutler enough in the second half to keep him out of their second round playoff game, Lovie is going to be in serious trouble. There were significant concerns about his job security before this season started and I don't think CHI fans are particularly enamored of him despite the success this year.

 

Personally I don't think Lovie is dumb enough to put his stars at additional risk in the second half if there is nothing to be gained. He always impressed me as a long-term guy rather than seeking short term satisfaction.

 

This!

 

Lovie was on the table if another flop year was in his future and doing something as assinine as playing your star QB as if your fighting for your proverbial asses and then getting him injured because of arrogance would only make his exidus even more quick than if he had a 8-8 season. Thats just poor coaching. Granted, you play him to at least keep him warm but not like its a must win game.

[delusions of grandeur]

Pretty obvious what is happening here.

 

The bookmakers expect ATL to pound CAR in the early flight of games with the #1 seed in the NFC on the line, leaving CHI with nothing to play for in the second flight since the PHI loss to MIN locks them into the 3rd seed.

 

I'd expect the CHI starters to play no more than the first half, and more likely one quarter +/-. GB ought to pound the CHI second/third stringers in the 2nd half and cover that 10 pts handily. The only thing keeping the line as low as -10 is that there is the remote possibility that CAR can beat ATL and make the game meaningful to CHI's s seeding. Don't forget that the line on this game probably would have been GB -4 to -5 if both teams had everything at stake. That extra 4 to 5 pts is nothing given the circumstances.

 

This.

 

It's ironic to me that these divisional rivalries were put in to keep teams from resting starters, but have only made things more complicated about whether they actually will. New Orleans could also decide to start sitting people in the second half if the Falcons are blowing the Panthers out, as could Baltimore if they see that the Steelers are up big on Cleveland...

 

I will not be making any parlays or teasers this weekend, but my condolences go to the few leagues left with a week 17 championship. Good luck dealing with all that.

[tosberg34]

It's pretty obvious to me that the Bears are going to get crushed whether they play hard for 4 full quarters or rest their starters. I don't think anyone here believes the Bears a for real. I think they are more of a product of the good teams doing poorly than they are being a good team themselves.

 

Now that I've stirred the pot and juiced up the Packers/Bears rivalry rehtoric you may now discuss it further.

 

BTW: I don't think Lovie risks his job by playing the starters - cause the Bears certainly ain't going to survive the first round of the playoffs anyways so I'm sure he's not even worried about getting to the SuperBowl.

Edited December 30, 2010 by tosberg34

[HowboutthemCowboys]

Pretty obvious what is happening here.

 

The bookmakers expect ATL to pound CAR in the early flight of games with the #1 seed in the NFC on the line, leaving CHI with nothing to play for in the second flight since the PHI loss to MIN locks them into the 3rd seed.

umm, I think both games are at 1 pm

[bpwallace49]

umm, I think both games are at 1 pm

 

Incorrect. The bears/Packers game was flexed to a 4:15 start . . .

[HowboutthemCowboys]

Incorrect. The bears/Packers game was flexed to a 4:15 start . . .

my bad. I was going by this

 

 

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml

[Bronco Billy]

BTW: I don't think Lovie risks his job by playing the starters - cause the Bears certainly ain't going to survive the first round of the playoffs anyways so I'm sure he's not even worried about getting to the SuperBowl.

 

I'll give you 3:1 odds on a $100 bet that the Bears make it to the 2nd round of the playoffs.

[keggerz]

I'll give you 3:1 odds on a $100 bet that the Bears make it to the 2nd round of the playoffs.

[tosberg34]

I'll give you 3:1 odds on a $100 bet that the Bears make it to the 2nd round of the playoffs.

 

Okay - you got me on that one. Forgot they had a bye.

 

WHAT I MEANT (ahem), was that they end up losing their first game in the playoffs ("one and done").

[Ed Hoyle]

Neat opinion on National Football Post.

 

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Why-Lo...-Green-Bay.html

[Chavez]

I don't think Lovie does the "Week #17 sit and rest routine" even w/ the #2 seed in his pocket. He wants an undefeated Division title under his belt.

Discuss.....

 

 

I'm pretty sure you know this, rr, but just as a reminder - jobs 1, 2, and 3 of the mythical spread are to make sure that the money being bet on each side is equal.

 

Job #4 is to objectively assess which team is more likely to win. Ideally it all dovetails where team A actually IS 10 points better than team B on paper. But in cases where team A's fans think they shoulda/woulda/coulda been undefeated, would've KILLED team B if not for 18 penalties in their previous game, are playing at home, and there's a strong probability that team B might start sitting players, the spread is gonna be BIG.