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My Matchup Take on the Colts-Jets Game


Rovers
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Iny vs. NYJ  

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  1. 1. Pick the winner straight up

    • Colts
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    • Jets
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Here we go again. Jets at Indy in a playoff matchup.

 

First, some observations. The Colts run D has recently got very stingy, but they were scheming against the run, and it has been working. McFadden, MJD, C Johnson all pretty much shut down in recent weeks. For the most part, those are run oriented teams with QB's that are hardly pro bowlers. That sounds like the Jets too. It wasn't until old man Collins started to pass the ball that TN did anything against the Colts. Why run against a team that is scheming against the run and has a completely decimated defensive backfield?

 

The Colts' rushing game is also somewhat rejuvinated, but agianst some fair to poor teams. Addai returns. No small contributor to that Colts' offense. The Jets run defense is far superior to those of the Colts' recent opponents. Addai is a mismatch because the Jets' LB's are not very good in coverage. With Jim Leonard done for the season, the Jets are weak in terms of safeties that can cover. The weakest link in the Jets D is the over the middle passing game. Blair White and Tamme. Can the Colts run on this defense? Probably not, at least not effectively, but screens and pass plays to RB's could work well.

 

What the Jets Need to do:

 

What they should NOT do is what the Colts' last three opponents tried to do. Run against 8 or even 9 in the box, or at least cheating up. What they should do is come out with short drops and passes over the middle behind the LB's. Once the safeties cheat up, go deep in one on one matchups of Holmes and Edwards against the Colts' CB's. Try to soften the run defense, get a lead by passing attacking the Colts' defense's biggest weakness. THEN go to the run and ball control. Use the pass to set up the run. Play fakes early.

 

Find a way to make Tamme and White pay for going over the middle. Not illegal hits, but big ones. The Jets can likely rely on Cromartie on Garcon and Revis on Walker to prevent the big play down the sidelines. The Jets also need to find a pass rush that works against Manning, but that is frankly unlikey to happen. Addai could have a big game with short passes. The Jets LB's are good run stoppers, but not good in coverage.

 

What he Colts need to do:

 

Attack the middle of the Jets defense. Addai, Tamme and White over the middle. Attack the outside of the Jets defense with outlet passes and runs. The Jets' LB's are not fast, and have trouble with outside contain. Almost forget about Wayne and Garcon early. Use the short game first, look for home runs later. Don't get fooled into thinking they can run behind the tackles other than to keep the Jets defense honest. Get a lead, force the jets to throw and let loose the dogs, Mathis and Freeney.

 

Load up against the run, which the Jets will likely stubbornly try to use right from the first drive with their ground and pound mentality. Force Sanchez to throw. This should result in some early 3 and outs when the Colts stop the run. By that time, Manning and the Colts have a lead, and they can begin to dictate the game.

 

 

Summary:

 

I think the Jets will not attack the Colts' weaknesses, and try to force the issue, sticking with trying to run against a defense that is ready to defend it. You can only keep the ball away from Manning if you are getting first downs. The Jets have to either have confidence in Sanchez to throw the ball early or lose. If the Jets cannot or refuse to attack a playoff team's most glaring weakeness or just stay home and mail it in.

 

Manning will find ways to get the ball to Tamme and White. If the Jets don't make big hits on those completions over the middle, Manning will pick them apart with time consuming drives. It will be the Jets defense that gets tired, not the Colts.

 

No more training wheels for Sanchez. If he can't throw against the Colts' DB's or the Jets stiuck with a run first play not to lose approach.... the game turns on this one aspect.

Edited by Rovers
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What they should NOT do is what the Colts' last three opponents tried to do. Run against 8 or even 9 in the box, or at least cheating up. What they should do is come out with short drops and passes over the middle behind the LB's. Once the safeties cheat up, go deep in one on one matchups of Holmes and Edwards against the Colts' CB's. Try to soften the run defense, get a lead by passing attacking the Colts' defense's biggest weakness. THEN go to the run and ball control. Use the pass to set up the run. Play fakes early.

 

This reminds me of the season opener for the Colts in 2004 against the Patriots. All the chatter was about how the Colts run defense was terrible and now the Patriots *finally* had a great RB in Corey Dillon and the game would be Dillon left, right, and center all game. Turns out the Patriots went pass-wacky most of the game (38 pass attempts vs. 15ish rushes). I'm not a football uber-expert (and the game was 6 years ago) but I bet some of that had to do with deciding to pass against obvious run-defense formations.

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I think games like this weekend's matchup vs. the Colts are exactly why the Jets went out and got Santonio Holmes. I expect a big game from him. If he doesn't have a big game (100 and at least one score), I don't think the Jets win.

 

I think they got Cromartie for the Colts more so than Holmes. Holmes fell into their lap pretty cheaply. I think they also got Tomlinson for the Colts too. He is a much better reciever than Jones was. A better check down target against the Colts' pass rush. The rookie CB Wilson was also likely picked up for teams like the Colts and Pats, but he's been a disappointment so far.

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Here we go again. Jets at Indy in a playoff matchup.

 

First, some observations. The Colts run D has recently got very stingy, but they were scheming against the run, and it has been working. McFadden, MJD, C Johnson all pretty much shut down in recent weeks. For the most part, those are run oriented teams with QB's that are hardly pro bowlers. That sounds like the Jets too. It wasn't until old man Collins started to pass the ball that TN did anything against the Colts. Why run against a team that is scheming against the run and has a completely decimated defensive backfield?

 

The Colts' rushing game is also somewhat rejuvinated, but agianst some fair to poor teams. Addai returns. No small contributor to that Colts' offense. The Jets run defense is far superior to those of the Colts' recent opponents. Addai is a mismatch because the Jets' LB's are not very good in coverage. With Jim Leonard done for the season, the Jets are weak in terms of safeties that can cover. The weakest link in the Jets D is the over the middle passing game. Blair White and Tamme. Can the Colts run on this defense? Probably not, at least not effectively, but screens and pass plays to RB's could work well.

 

What the Jets Need to do:

 

What they should NOT do is what the Colts' last three opponents tried to do. Run against 8 or even 9 in the box, or at least cheating up. What they should do is come out with short drops and passes over the middle behind the LB's. Once the safeties cheat up, go deep in one on one matchups of Holmes and Edwards against the Colts' CB's. Try to soften the run defense, get a lead by passing attacking the Colts' defense's biggest weakness. THEN go to the run and ball control. Use the pass to set up the run. Play fakes early.

 

Find a way to make Tamme and White pay for going over the middle. Not illegal hits, but big ones. The Jets can likely rely on Cromartie on Garcon and Revis on Walker to prevent the big play down the sidelines. The Jets also need to find a pass rush that works against Manning, but that is frankly unlikey to happen. Addai could have a big game with short passes. The Jets LB's are good run stoppers, but not good in coverage.

 

What he Colts need to do:

 

Attack the middle of the Jets defense. Addai, Tamme and White over the middle. Attack the outside of the Jets defense with outlet passes and runs. The Jets' LB's are not fast, and have trouble with outside contain. Almost forget about Wayne and Garcon early. Use the short game first, look for home runs later. Don't get fooled into thinking they can run behind the tackles other than to keep the Jets defense honest. Get a lead, force the jets to throw and let loose the dogs, Mathis and Freeney.

 

Load up against the run, which the Jets will likely stubbornly try to use right from the first drive with their ground and pound mentality. Force Sanchez to throw. This should result in some early 3 and outs when the Colts stop the run. By that time, Manning and the Colts have a lead, and they can begin to dictate the game.

 

 

Summary:

 

I think the Jets will not attack the Colts' weaknesses, and try to force the issue, sticking with trying to run against a defense that is ready to defend it. You can only keep the ball away from Manning if you are getting first downs. The Jets have to either have confidence in Sanchez to throw the ball early or lose. If the Jets cannot or refuse to attack a playoff team's most glaring weakeness or just stay home and mail it in.

 

Manning will find ways to get the ball to Tamme and White. If the Jets don't make big hits on those completions over the middle, Manning will pick them apart with time consuming drives. It will be the Jets defense that gets tired, not the Colts.

 

No more training wheels for Sanchez. If he can't throw against the Colts' DB's or the Jets stiuck with a run first play not to lose approach.... the game turns on this one aspect.

 

well said and i agree

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The Jets defense is good, but not anywhere near as good as those championship Baltimore and Chicago defenses. Aside from the lack of a pass rush, the bottom line is that if you look at any recent SB winner, they all have very good QB's, players who can make plays and at times take over a game.

 

Last year Sanchez made the jump from INT machine to game manager in the playoffs. He will have to make another jump from game manager to difference maker in the playoffs this year, or I agree, the Jets are not contenders. As slight a chance as there is of that, it's still a chance. To make that even less unlikely, the Jets CS is not going to let him attempt to carry the team like that. I am beginning to see Ryan's biggest fault as a coach. He is stuck in his own formula, and won't deviate. He's reminding me of Herman Edwards and Mangini now, but at least he can develop a better defense than his preecessors. Still stuck in conservative play calling not to lose horse chit like Edwars and Mangini.

 

That tendency was apparent when he was rushing three against the Steelers on their last drive and nearly blew the game because of it.

 

As far as the Colts go, they might beat a flawed team like the Jets, but with that defensive backfield combined with no Clark and Collie, I don't see them as contenders either. A quality QB will have a field day against that secondary, despite their pass rush.

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The O-line needs to contain freeney and mathis, They need to protect Sanchez in order to allow him to have a great game. We hope. I feel better about them going into this game than I did when they went into Indy last season. I think the defense will make some plays. They need to beat the snot out of manning to win. Not easy, but can be done. Any given Sunday. J-E-T-S Jets! Jets! Jets!

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http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/nfl/col...&id=5989370

 

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- Compared with nicknames like "The Doomsday Defense" or "Monsters of the Midway," a handle like "The Other Guys" doesn't inspire the fear that some other NFL defenses have caused over the years.

 

But if the Jets are going to get by Colts quarterback Peyton Manning in their playoff opener Saturday night, it probably won't be because of big plays from Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, the lockdown cornerback tandem the team put together by acquiring Cromartie almost immediately after Manning shredded the Jets' defense in last season's AFC Championship Game.

 

Teams threw so little at Revis this season that he admitted Tuesday his biggest challenge in some games is "I get bored."

 

The Jets are going to need The Other Guys in their secondary -- Dwight Lowery, Drew Coleman, Marquice Cole and this new starting safety tandem of Brodney Pool and Eric Smith -- to avoid getting picked apart by Manning, who led the Colts to a 30-17 comeback win last January that put them, not the Jets, in the Super Bowl.

 

Dwight Lowery (21) couldn't stop Pierre Garcon when the Colts took the lead for good on a third-quarter TD in the AFC title game.New England's Tom Brady took the same basic approach to attacking the Jets in the Patriots' 45-3 rout last month.

 

The Colts/Pats formula is to spread the Jets out with three or four receivers, see whom Revis and Cromartie take, then try to expose whomever else New York has in pass coverage. Is that the book now on how to beat the Jets' defense?

 

"Yeah, you could say that," Lowery said Tuesday. "That's what teams have been trying to do. It's matchups they want. And sometimes it's worked. Sometimes it hasn't.

 

"The difference is, not all teams have Peyton Manning at quarterback."

 

Lowery remembers exactly what he thought when Manning started to figure out what the Jets were doing in last season's AFC title game. Lowery plays mostly safety or as an extra defensive back in passing situations for the Jets now, but back then he was the surprise starter at cornerback against Indy ahead of Lito Sheppard. The Jets' defense got off to a terrific start. It was disguising its defenses and mixing its calls up. The Jets' blitzes were working and even their front seven was getting pressure on Manning.

 

But there was a point shortly before the half when Lowery says he lined up opposite his receiver, looked in at Manning and thought, "Uh-oh. He knows. He knows."

 

Knows what?

 

"Everything the defense had coming," Lowery said.

 

"Not a good feeling," Lowery added, smiling weakly.

 

Last year, coach Rex Ryan's top-ranked Jets defense was the only one that blitzed opponents more in the regular season than eventual Super Bowl champion New Orleans. But after the Jets' early-game success in that AFC title game -- two quick sacks and a fumble recovery -- Manning began to figure out what his opponents were doing on Indy's last drive before the half.

 

The Colts were trailing 17-6, with the ball on their own 20 and just over two minutes left.

 

They needed just 58 seconds and four plays -- one of them a beautiful, 46-yard rainbow of a pass from Manning to rookie Austin Collie, who beat Lowery on the play -- to finish a quick-strike touchdown drive. And the Colts looked rattled no more. Indianapolis was still down by four but the feeling Manning had just created -- among the Colts and even the Jets -- was this game is over.

 

"I felt the momentum shift and then I don't think it really mattered where the ball was, we were going to struggle stopping them," Ryan sighed.

 

The stats tell just how hard Manning was on the Jets' Other Guys: He threw at Lowery 14 times and completed nine for 124 yards and one TD. He completed five of the seven passes at the Jets' Coleman for 77 yards. He was 2-for-2 going at Sheppard for an average of 21.5 yards a play. Manning threw just five times at Revis though he was shadowing Colts star receiver Reggie Wayne the entire game, and the quarterback completed three of those passes. But they went for only 49 yards.

 

And how about the blitz, which had started the game so encouragingly? When the Jets brought six or more pass-rushers, Manning closed out the game 8-for-10 for 160 yards and a touchdown. The Colts scored on four of their last five drives.

 

What stunned the Jets -- then and now -- was that Manning was able to see more than just the extra pressure coming. Lowery says if they showed Manning something just once, he'd go to the sideline, look at an instant photo of the Jets' alignment on the play and make the adjustment the next time he saw it. He was able to accurately call out every player and his assignment -- "21 is dropping. 57 is coming. 44 is the 'Mike'" -- before the snap.

 

Cole, still shaking his head in admiration Tuesday, said, "It was just ... weird. I mean, I've never seen anything like that. From anybody. Even Brady will only call out who the Mike [middle linebacker] is. Manning was calling out what everyone was going to do."

 

When they realized Peyton Manning had figured them out, the Jets felt the momentum shift.Lowery added: "Imagine that now. If you're a defender, your whole job is compromised. ... You can't change the call. You know that he knows. You know that he knows not only that pressure is coming, but where it's coming from. And you know the ball is coming at you, because you're one-on-one with a receiver and, yeah, you may have safety help, but that safety is 15 or 20 yards away."

 

Lowery still thinks the game might've gone differently if the Jets hadn't lost nickelback Donald Strickland just before the half with an injury.

 

"He was a big part of the game plan," Lowery said. "When he was in there, he allowed us to do a lot. Without him, we tried to do things we were doing before but we weren't communicating and they scored before the half -- Boom! ... Before Strickland got hurt, it was more of a game. It was more challenging. After that we had to play things more vanilla. And vanilla doesn't work against Manning."

 

Would Strickland have made a difference? He isn't even with the Jets anymore.

 

The Jets have talked a lot this week about how they have different and better personnel than when they last played the Colts.

 

And many people have noted how the Colts will be without Collie and tight end Dallas Clark, who are both out for the season with injuries.

 

But Lowery just laughed softly at the reminder of whom the Colts are missing.

 

"They still have Manning," he said.

 

Cole -- another of The Other Guys -- knows what to expect come Saturday night: "A lot of work."

 

"The ball is coming our way," he said.

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Thanks Brent.

 

The last 32 minutes of that game last year, I was just dumbstruck watching Manning. This part of the above article says it all:

 

What stunned the Jets -- then and now -- was that Manning was able to see more than just the extra pressure coming. Lowery says if they showed Manning something just once, he'd go to the sideline, look at an instant photo of the Jets' alignment on the play and make the adjustment the next time he saw it. He was able to accurately call out every player and his assignment -- "21 is dropping. 57 is coming. 44 is the 'Mike'" -- before the snap.

 

Cole, still shaking his head in admiration Tuesday, said, "It was just ... weird. I mean, I've never seen anything like that. From anybody. Even Brady will only call out who the Mike [middle linebacker] is. Manning was calling out what everyone was going to do."

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Micheal Irvin hasn't gotten any smarter.

 

He thinks Wayne will beat Revis today because Revis isn't playing as well as last year. His reasoning? Revis had 6 INT's last year, none this year. From the article above:

 

Teams threw so little at Revis this season that he admitted Tuesday his biggest challenge in some games is "I get bored."

 

Teams have been going after Cromartie and the safeties this year. in fact, that is why Ryan sometimes moves Revis around just to get him more involved. You would think these knucklheads would have at least some clue.

 

I'm not saying Wayne can't beat Revis, any CB can be beaten, but I don't think Wayne can have a big game with Revis on him. that is, IF Revis is on him all day, he may not be.

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Good post. Frankly IMO neither of these teams are serious contenders and it could easily go either way. I think the Jets D makes the diff though, Manning has a rough game, and Colts lose about 20-13.

 

While I somewhat agree with you, I won't be the guying betting against Peyton Manning any time soon.

Has he made his share of mistakes? Sure. But he's also the guy that can put a team on his back and win football games that the Colts had no business winning.

 

If the Jets are going to win today, it has to be on offense. Its time to let Sanchez off the leash and let him make plays like they were doing mid-season. The kid is going to have to throw 20+ times for the Big Green to win imo. If Rex leans on Greene and LT, the Jets will lose; you can't keep up with Peyton when you run the ball.

Edited by kpholmes
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To me it comes down to this. Can Pierre Garcon catch the football today. If he can the Jets are in trouble. If not (like usual) I like the Jets chances. The Colts barely survived the Titans last week, they've been barely surviving everyone. Manning is only a .500 QB in the playoffs, he can be had, and Garcon can help him. My $ will be on the Jets.

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The Colts barely survived the Titans last week, they've been barely surviving everyone.
Both teams have either won or loss by a TD in half the games this season. The Colts have been statistically more consistent in their performance both offensively or defensively then the Jets. The Jets have had a few blow outs (both to the Bills) but also were shellacked by the Patriots, where the Colts only lost by a FG. I wouldn't read too much into "barely surviving". Edited by cdrudge
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To me it comes down to this. Can Pierre Garcon catch the football today. If he can the Jets are in trouble. If not (like usual) I like the Jets chances. The Colts barely survived the Titans last week, they've been barely surviving everyone. Manning is only a .500 QB in the playoffs, he can be had, and Garcon can help him. My $ will be on the Jets.

+1

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Depends on two things IMO. Can the Jets stop Manning from pivking them appart between the numbers, and can Sanchez make some early throws to back the Colts off the LoS.

 

I'm goin Jets of course, 31-24.

 

Are you getting fired up yet, Rovers ? I love that nervous / pumped up feeling before my team plays a playoff game. I'm anxous for tonight's game, as I think it will be very entertaining. Good luck to your boys. :wacko:

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Are you getting fired up yet, Rovers ? I love that nervous / pumped up feeling before my team plays a playoff game. I'm anxous for tonight's game, as I think it will be very entertaining. Good luck to your boys. :wacko:

 

 

I am ridiculously nervous. Just ate a half slab of the best BBQ ribs I ever ate, and my stomache is churning. I must ... drink.... more... beer.

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Sanchez was over throwing open and wide opne recievers all game. I knew thwe recievers would get open, it was a question of whther or not Sanchez could hit them. He didn't, but the Jets offensive line blew INDY away in the second half running the ball against 8 and even 9 in the box, something I didnt't think the Jets could do.

 

Snachez did manage to make some intermediate throws, but he was long all day, and the game should not have been this close if not for his performance.

 

let the Revis detractors fire away now. Wayne, one catch, one yard.

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Sanchez was over throwing open and wide opne recievers all game. I knew thwe recievers would get open, it was a question of whther or not Sanchez could hit them. He didn't, but the Jets offensive line blew INDY away in the second half running the ball against 8 and even 9 in the box, something I didnt't think the Jets could do.

 

Snachez did manage to make some intermediate throws, but he was long all day, and the game should not have been this close if not for his performance.

 

let the Revis detractors fire away now. Wayne, one catch, one yard.

 

Are there actually Revis detractors ???

 

Congrats on the win ! :wacko:

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Are there actually Revis detractors ???

 

Congrats on the win ! :wacko:

 

 

Thanks... this was big. Next up, the hated Pats. 2-2 against them, Rex is, and this is something of a rubber game. It won't even be a contest unless Sanchez steps up his game.

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