2011 Mock Draft rev 2

[Tford]

Link to my previous rendition: http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?show...p;hl=mock+draft

 

1. Carolina - Cam Newton QB Auburn

 

I know I'm going to get roasted for this but I can't shake the feeling that Cam Newton's hype train will take him all the way to the top. Seriously, everything this kid does right now is working to his advantage. I thought his "media" workout would fail miserably, but yet he's gained even more momentum from it. You can make a decent case for any consensus top 5 player here for the Panthers but Newton is the flashy pick AND might fill the biggest hole the Panthers have. Jimmy Clausen won't be a quality starter in this league. There's also much to said about merchandising dollars when you draft a first round quarterback; just ask the Broncos.

 

2. Denver - Nick Fairley DT Auburn

 

Denver, like Carolina, could go any number of ways. Denver needs help everywhere on defense. I think Fairley is the best player in the draft. His impact on an entire defense is unmatched by any player available. You also have to think that the Ndamukong Suh effect might play into his drafting. Jamal Williams may or may not be back to the Broncos as well, making DT is significant need. The Broncos can't let Fairley go past 2.

 

3. Buffalo Bills - Von Miller 3-4 OLB Texas A&M

 

Yes, I think he could go this high. Bar none, the best player at the Senior Bowl, Von Miller has improved his stock to the top edge rushing LB available in the draft right now. The Bills need help rushing the passer, Reggie Torbor is not a player that teams are going to respect as an edge rusher. The Bills strike me as being in the "best player available mode" right now so Pat Peterson could be the play here. With the Bills seemingly committing to the 3-4, I don't think a sliding Da'Quan Bowers is the play here.

 

4. Cincinnati Bengals - Da'Quan Bowers DE Clemson

 

Absolute gift for the Bengals, Bowers is worthy of the 1.01 pick so getting him here is golden. Easily the best 4-3 DE in the draft, Bowers should make a young and improving front 4 of the Bengals even more promising. Carson Palmer will start up the waterworks when Marvin Lewis passes on AJ Green because that means that Chad Johnson is coming back but Bowers makes Cincinnati better right now.

 

5. Arizona Cardinals - Patrick Peterson CB LSU

 

Greg Toler and company opposite Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie were torched all year long on their way to a great fantasy season for tackles much to the chagrin of Cardinal fans. Unfortuately, that was at the cost of multiple completions and many yards given up. Peterson should provide an immediate improvement in that department. I still like Rob Quinn to go to the Cardinals but with the talent available at this pick, I don't think Quinn is a realistic option here. However, if AJ Green goes to Cinci and Bowers is free, I think Arizona might be the first team to trade down.

 

6. Cleveland Browns - AJ Green WR Georgia

 

No way that Green falls farther than 6. Josh Cribbs is the only dynamic player that the Browns have on offense and he's a gimmick player (no offense Browns fans). Just think of how effective Peyton Hillis could be if he didn't have to see 8 guys in the box every running down. I think Colt McCoy can be a solid NFL QB but no QB can succeed with the receivers that he has to throw to right now. Grabbing a guy who some say is the best receiving prospect since Randy Moss is a great way to give McCoy a puncher's chance.

 

7. San Francisco 49ers - Marcus Dareus 3-4 DE Alabama

 

On a defense that sports 2.5 sacks from Manny Lawson, 4 sacks from Parys Haralson and 5 sacks from your situational rusher, Ahmad Brooks, you'd think the 49ers would grab a guy like Rob Quinn, Aldon Smith or even Ryan Kerrigan. But they won't. Why you ask? The answer is I don't know. For some reason, the 49ers remain committed to edge-rusher-by-committee. That said, Marcus Dareus would be a solid addition for them as Isaac Sopoaga is the only weak link on an otherwise outstanding defensive line.

 

8. Tennessee Titans - Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri

 

I've said before on this forum that I do not like Blaine Gabbert. Personally, I'd take Colin Kaepernick over him. That said, for some inexplicable reason, he is hailed as the best QB in the draft by many. The Titans are desperate and do not want to open the season with Kerry Collins (maybe) and Rusty Smith as the only options at QB. Gabbert answers the bell here.

 

9. Dallas Cowboys - Cameron Jordan 3-4 DE California

 

There has been a great deal of support shown by Cowboys' brass is support of their cornerbacks of late. Many have Prince Amukamara going to the Cowboys but I am choosing to believe that the support shown by the coaches and owner is upheld by their selection of Cam Jordan. Jordan can provide an immediate boost to the DE spot which hasn't been the strongest position of the 'Boys. Igor Olshansky has been a stout run defender but cannot generate any push. Jordan can.

 

10. Washington Redskins - Robert Quinn 3-4 OLB UNC

 

Great pick for the Skins here if it happens. I like Rob Quinn enough that I wouldn't claim it as a huge reach if Arizona took him at 5 with Von Miller off the board. Brian Orakpo is the only relevant pass rush threat that Washington has. No other player on the team was able to generate more than 3. That's unacceptable for a team in a division that sports the kind of quarterbacking that the NFC East does.

 

11. Houston Texans - Prince Amukamara CB Nebraska

 

I shouldn't need to explain this pick too much. Houston was the unfortunate owners of the worst pass defense seen in a long time last season. Kareem Jackson and Glover Quin showed flashes but in a division that contains Peyton Manning, the Texans need a much help as they can get in coverage. A sliding Rob Quinn or Eldon Smith as pass rushing OLB could be a definite possibility here as well.

 

12. Minnesota Vikings - Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue

 

Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker continue their downward spiral so much that Minnesota can't even bring themselves to draft one of them in the first round. Ray Edwards is a free agent that the Vikings seem content on letting walk and young Emerson Griffen seems content on wasting his NFL career away with arrests. Kerrigan would be a solid addition opposite Jared Allen.

 

13. Detroit Lions - Nate Solder OT Colorado

 

I originally had Akeem Ayers going to Detroit. I still think that's a good pick but the more I think about it, the more I think that the Lions HAVE to draft a tackle. How many shoulder separations are you going to let Stafford endure before you try to get better blocking than what you have? Stafford has been good to great in the games he's played healthy. Why not give the kid a fighting chance? It's not like he isn't your former 1.01 pick who's signed for crazy amounts of cash. You may want to protect him at some point. Sarcasm aside, Solder is being compared to Tony Boselli and has the frame to become a big bruising tackle. He has overtaken Tyron Smith as the top tackle available in the draft.

 

14. St. Louis Rams - Julio Jones WR Alabama

 

Wow, who would have thought it would take until pick 14 to get a repeat pick? As I said before, I realize that this makes way too much sense to actually happen but Sam Bradford was able to do amazing things as a rookie with absolute nobodies at the wideout position. Julio Jones gives instant credibility to a pass-catching corps that has none.

 

15. Miami Dolphins - Mark Ingram RB Alabama

 

This is the first pick in the draft where I truly have no idea what will happen. You could make a case for at least 8 different players here. The only thing I know is that the majority owner is a spotlight hog. He wants to make a flashy pick here. Which is why I think you might see Ingram end up in orange and green. Both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are free agents and neither figure to be in the Dolphins' long term plans. I'll say it right here though. I wouldn't bat an eyelash if Colin Kaepernick sneaks into the top of the first round going to the Dolphins.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars - Rahim Moore FS UCLA

 

Bit of a reach here but the Jaguars need a good safety in the worst way and they aren't strangers in drafting players they perceive they need on defense if they fit. See Derrick Harvey, Quentin Groves, Tyson Alualu.

[Tford]

Will post the second half after work.

[Bronco Billy]

Ugh

 

Fairley has college stud/NFL bust written all over him. Much rather see DEN picking Miller.

 

Personally I think CAR goes Fairley and DEN takes Peterson after cutting Champ loose. Meaning they are no better than being on the treadmill to Hell.

[Tford]

Ugh

 

Fairley has college stud/NFL bust written all over him. Much rather see DEN picking Miller.

 

Personally I think CAR goes Fairley and DEN takes Peterson after cutting Champ loose. Meaning they are no better than being on the treadmill to Hell.

 

My first pass went Fairley - Peterson actually. I don't think Miller will go to a 4-3 team honestly, and that seems to be how Denver is leaning.

 

Can you unpack that bolded statement a bit? What makes you say that Fairley has NFL bust written all over him?

[5Rings]

7. San Francisco 49ers - Marcus Dareus 3-4 DE Alabama

 

On a defense that sports 2.5 sacks from Manny Lawson, 4 sacks from Parys Haralson and 5 sacks from your situational rusher, Ahmad Brooks, you'd think the 49ers would grab a guy like Rob Quinn, Aldon Smith or even Ryan Kerrigan. But they won't. Why you ask? The answer is I don't know. Lawson is a UFA, and our new DC Fangio has already come out and blatantly said the #1 need is an edge rusher. None of this "Well, we can use so and so, blah is good, etc" nonsense coachspeak...dude came out and said our edge rushers stink. If Von is gone, look at Kerrigan...but I also think that with this draft board, the pick is PRINCE. Niners were great against the run, poor against pass, and Nate Clements is a torch.

 

For some reason, the 49ers remain committed to edge-rusher-by-committee. Not if Von Miller is available or Fangio has his way. That said, Marcus Dareus would be a solid addition for them as Isaac Sopoaga is the only weak link on an otherwise outstanding defensive line. How is Ike the weak link? He's a great run stopping 5 tech end...his role was not to rush the passer in Niners scheme as much as free up the backes to to damage...which they did not. I like Dareus, but I'm not sure I agree with your thinking on adding him. Needs are QB, edge rusher, and CB. In your draft, I go PRINCE

 

Nice read

[Tford]

Nice read

 

Zero chance that Von Miller gets by Arizona at 5.

[Bronco Billy]

My first pass went Fairley - Peterson actually. I don't think Miller will go to a 4-3 team honestly, and that seems to be how Denver is leaning.

 

Can you unpack that bolded statement a bit? What makes you say that Fairley has NFL bust written all over him?

 

He's got extremely poor muscle definition and he doesn't play as big as he'll need in the NFL. He's a load for college interior linemen, but when he's matched up against NFL guys who know the tricks of the trade I see him struggling to get penetration and collapsing the pocket, and I see OGs and Cs getting leverage and pushing him 3 to 5 yds downfield. I sure don't question his athleticism or his quick feet.

 

The guy doesn't have that prototypical low CoG, doesn't have a good double move, doesn't pursue laterally well, and he doesn't have enough sand in his pants. His forte is a bull rush and with his light upper body he's going to get neutralized. I think he's going to struggle to keep weight on in an NFL schedule. He's got work ethic issues beyond game time and he's got too much of a temper and takes some bad penalties.

 

Personally I'd like him better as a DE, but he's tagged for DT. Poor upper body strength, poor off field work habits, bad judgment/temper worry me significantly.

 

He reminds me of and Ayers type D lineman - he was a non-factor right up to last season when his numbers exploded. I'd like to see a more incremental progression in his game instead of the sudden production. His hype also makes me think of a Mandarich type fall in the NFL, and he's got a lot of the same shortcomings Mandarich had coming out.

[tazinib1]

Ballsy pick at #q brother. The last thing I wanna see go to Carolina is a running QB though. That would make this Stew nuthugger very

[Bronco Billy]

BTW - nice job, Tford. I always like seeing guys willing to step up and do this kind of stuff even if I don't see it their way.

 

Well done, GB.

[5Rings]

Zero chance that Von Miller gets by Arizona at 5.

 

Have you figured out a reason that SF would take Dareus over Prince or Kerrigan yet?

Edited February 21, 2011 by 5Rings

[Tford]

Have you figured out a reason that SF would take Dareus over Prince or Kerrigan yet?

 

I think you are giving Sopoaga more credit than he deserves. You are correct in that he's a decent run stuffing end but he generates zero push. Same reason Dallas needs to upgrade over Olshansky. Same reason Cleveland needs to upgrade over Robaire Smith and Kenyon Coleman. Conversely, Ray McDonald as your pass rush specialist at DE is a joke. Zero sacks last year. In fact, there were a total of 2.5 sacks attributed to the defensive line from all players not named Justin Smith.

 

The Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns got more production from their LDE. Furthermore, there were only 4 sacks total from the left edge. 1.5 from Sopoaga and 2.5 from Lawson. From the right side? 17.5. A great DE can cover a lack of OLB talent in a 3-4. Justin Smith is a premiere end in this league. It's scary to think how much more he'd produce if there were an end on the other side that offensive lines needed to respect.

 

Finally, Kerrigan is a reach 12 where I have him and not a prototypical 3-4 OLB, Rob Quinn is more likely than Kerrigan to go to SF IMO. Many mocks have Kerrigan going to Jacksonville at 16. 8 is probably much too high. Prince is a possibility but I think Nate sticks around a couple more years.

[Tford]

I will say this also. This draft is chock full of 3-4 OLBs, way more quality prospects than in years past.

 

Von Miller

Rob Quinn

Aldon Smith

Ryan Kerrigan* (I like him better as a 4-3 end)

Akeem Ayers* (I like him more as a utility backer, could play inside, could play 4-3 SLB or MLB)

Justin Houston

Jabaal Sheard

Jeremy Beal

Sam Acho

Brooks Reed

 

And that's not even counting small school guys. All of those guys have round 1 or 2 potential.

 

For 3-4 DEs, past the following guys, I'm not sold.

 

Nick Fairley* (Like him better as a 4-3 UT)

Marcus Dareus

Cameron Jordan

JJ Watt

 

You could make a case for Corey Liuget from Illinois but I think he's going to 4-3 team and can't handle a double team.

[tazinib1]

speaking of JJ Watt, I would not be at all surprised to him go in the first part of the 1st round.

[Azazello1313]

I kind of agree with you on cam #1....just been getting that feeling lately.

 

I don't want the broncos getting fairley. he could be great, but....too many DT busts out there. my preference would be 1) bowers or 2) peterson, I just don't see those guys "missing" at the next level.

[theprofessor]

speaking of JJ Watt, I would not be at all surprised to him go in the first part of the 1st round.

 

I agree. Whoever gets this kid is going to be very fortunate. Unbelieveable motor. Pro bowler by year 3.

[Tford]

17. New England Patriots (From Oakland Raiders) - Akeem Ayers 3-4 OLB / Utility LB UCLA

 

Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes (when not taking banned substances) have proven solid inside a rebuilt Patriot LB corps. Jermaine Cunningham and Rob Ninkovich are not fear-inspiring rush OLBs. Akeem Ayers is big enough and athletic enough to become a top-flight rush OLB in this league but what I think makes him the pick here is his versatility. Ayers could play 4-3 SLB or MLB, 3-4 ILB or OLB. That versatility is something the Patriot defense craves.

 

18. San Diego Chargers - JJ Watt 3-4 DE Wisconsin

 

Not a big Jacques Cesaire fan. Luis Castillo isn't exactly my favorite 5 technique guy either. JJ Watt provides an immediate upgrade to the Charger defense. Aldon Smith should really be the pick here but I doubt that AJ Smith is willing to admit that Larry English is a bust.

19. New York Giants - Tyron Smith OT USC

 

Word on the street is that Tyron Smith will show up to the combine at 305-310. If that's the case, he's a steal at 19 for the Giants. The Giants tackles are getting old and are breaking down. Will Beatty is inconsistent at best. Tyron Smith is needed to keep the Big Blue offensive line a dominant fixture.

 

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Adrian Clayborn 4-3 DE Iowa

 

Adrian Clayborn would be drafted top 10 if this draft was a year ago. But among inconsistencies and character concerns, Clayborn will likely slide a bit. The Buccaneers will likely bite; needing a pass rush compliment outside to Gerald McCoy.

 

21. Kansas City Chiefs - Aldon Smith 3-4 OLB Missouri

 

Smith shouldn't had slid as far as he did. A quality player at this junction, Aldon Smith will improve pass rush opposite Tamba Hali for the Chiefs.

 

22. Indianapolis Colts - Anthony Castonzo OT Boston College

 

Slam dunk pick here. Charlie Johnson is not an elite left tackle and is a free agent. Tony Ugoh is gone. Peyton Manning is likely to become the highest paid man in the NFL. The Colts have to hit with a tackle here.

 

23. Philadelphia Eagles - Gabe Carimi OT Wisconsin

 

The Eagles have a hole at right tackle. Winston Justice is only consistent on the injury report. I think the Eagles have to get a tackle as badly as the Colts do.

24. New Orleans Saints - Corey Luiget 4-3 DT Illinois

 

I'm having a tough time mocking out who the Saints could take at 24. For now, I have an upgrade next to Sedrick Ellis. A decent 4-3 DE would work also.

Edited February 24, 2011 by Tford

[Tford]

25. Seattle Seahawks - Mike Pouncey G Florida

 

Mike Pouncey is the best interior lineman in the draft and comparisons to his brother will likely keep his stock high. Seattle never has found a decent replacement for Hutch since they lost him. Pouncey would improve Seattle's running game significantly.

 

26. Baltimore Ravens - Titus Young WR Boise State

 

The comparison this guy keep drawing is DeSean Jackson and really, who else makes sense? 170 pounds, home run threat in the purest form. Young is just what the doctor ordered for the Ravens. Donte Stallworth was supposed to be that guy but never did have the impact the Ravens wanted.

 

27. Atlanta Falcons - Jimmy Smith CB Colorado

 

The last thing etched into the memory of the Falcons' brass is likely going to be Aaron Rodgers dismantling an Atlanta pass defense that had no answer for the spread offense. I think that's the reason that Jimmy Smith gets a look here for the red and black.

 

28. New England Patriots - Muhammad Wilkerson 3-4 DE Temple

 

I think New England will find a way to add another 5 technique defensive lineman in addition to a rush OLB. Ty Warren could be on his way out and Ron Brace has been unspectactular in spot duty.

 

29. Chicago Bears - Derek Sherrod OT Mississippi State

 

How can this pick be anything other than a lineman given the way the Bears season ended? The Bears have to get better in pass blocking as they led the league in sacks allowed. With Mike Martz running the offense and Jay Cutler holding the ball, there is no other choice than a lineman.

 

30. New York Jets - Justin Houston 3-4 OLB Georgia

 

Vernon Gholston has been an epic bust. I expect him to be gone shortly. Jason Taylor is either going to be retired this year or next. The Jets need a top flight 3-4 OLB.

 

31. Pittsburgh Steelers - Cameron Heyward 3-4 DE Ohio State

 

Aaron Smith is all but done with his latest season ending injury. Ziggy Hood has done well stepping into a starting role but with Brett Keisel getting long in the tooth, Heyward could be a pick to make a great defense even better.

32. Green Bay Packers - Brandon Harris CB Miami

 

My pick for the best physical corner in the draft, Brandon Harris seems to be tailor-made for the Packers. No disrespect to Sam Shields but I think the Packers might look to bolster there corner position further in preparation for Woodson's move to safety. The Packers could look for a guard or rush end but I think Sam Acho or Brooks Reed in the second serves them better if Justin Houston doesn't make it to them.