Incoming QB class: How do they go in the draft?

[Bronco Billy]

There is a real interesting scenario brewing with the 2011 draft. There are a lot of teams with very definitive needs at the QB position, teams are seeing that they have to have at least good - not average, but good - QB play to be a contender, and yet this QB class is loaded with question marks to go with their talent. Even the consensus top 2 QBs in the draft have some real questions about how their talents will translate at the next level.

 

Now I'm starting to see projections going all over the place. I've seen mock drafts with 5 QBs going in the first round, I've seen mock drafts with two QBs going in the first round and then a run on QBs in the second spilling into the third, and I've seen everything in between. There are good arguments for each.

 

So, how many if any of these incoming rookies are worthy of a 1st round pick and who will be the best of the bunch when it's all over?

Edited March 21, 2011 by Bronco Billy

[tazinib1]

Voted

[Infinity]

I think Mallet would be the guy i go for if i'm one of these teams, he could drop far which could be nice if your a team needing a solid QB pick. If he fell far enough a team could pull what the lions did and trade into the end of the first round to grab him. I think he will be the best QB once its all said and done

[Brentastic]

As much as I'd like to participate in this discussion, due to the new dynasty league I'm in, I am un-willing to share my research (expertise analysis) with fellow dynasty mates until after are May rookie draft.

[tazinib1]

When all is said and done, Ponder will be the best QB of this draft.

[Bronco Billy]

When all is said and done, Ponder will be the best QB of this draft.

 

Chris Ponder:

 

Pluses - experience in pro O, lots of DI starts, leadership, accuracy, mobility, prototypical QB size/weight, play action

 

Minuses - Gets hurt especially in arm, will throw into double coverage, lacks deep throwing strength, does not look off receivers, tends to have rough time in nig games

 

He does appear to be the darling right now in terms of value. He's going to have to go to the right system to have a chance to thrive.

 

MIN at 1.12 is too early and they need a QB who can get the ball down the field. SEA could jump here late in the 1st but don't think they'll go QB so early especially with Whitehurst waiting. Doesn't have a strong enough arm to maximize S Smith & Gaddis in CAR. If he goes in the 2nd round to BUF, AZ, or SF he could be headed to the right spot at the right time in the draft. CIN could look at him in Rd 2 - hard to tell where they want to go with their QB. CLE already has a QB like him on the roster. Not sure he's athletic enough for TEN. Shanahan will look for a bigger arm in WAS.

[tazinib1]

He's going to have to go to the right system to have a chance to thrive.

 

If he goes in the 2nd round to BUF, AZ, or SF he could be headed to the right spot at the right time in the draft.

 

Agreed. As much as I would love to see him go in the first, I think he will be one of, if not the first QB taken in the second. Seattle and Arizone would be prime destinations for him as I believe he is the most NFL ready QB in the draft IF he is selected to head a West Coast Offense.

[Bronco Billy]

I think Mallet would be the guy i go for if i'm one of these teams, he could drop far which could be nice if your a team needing a solid QB pick. If he fell far enough a team could pull what the lions did and trade into the end of the first round to grab him. I think he will be the best QB once its all said and done

 

Ryan Mallet:

 

Positives: Cannon arm, superior size, experience in pro O, prototypical pocket passer, great deep ball, sound mechanics

 

Negatives: Poor athlete, lack of touch, noticably struggles when pressured, maturity issues

 

A vet team who has a solid O-line to form and maintain a pocket and has burners on the outside are the ideal spot for Mallet. If he goes to a team with a poor O-line he could really struggle badly - you have to wonder if that gets into his head after a while.

 

Could be a good fit in CAR but they don't have a second rounder. Could re-energize Lee Evans in BUF and O-line isn't bad when healthy. CIN, AZ possibilities but O-lines would indicate these aren't good spots for him. Would be diametrically opposite of McCoy in CLE if they decide McCoy isn't their guy. Has the deep ball Shanahan likes and he has worked with QBs who aren't top notch mentally before, but 1.10 too early, 2.09 might work. If MIN wants him this could be a good spot, but 1.12 to too early and 2.11 risks losing him - will need to trade down in 1st or up in 2nd. Interesting fit in SF with young but talented O-line and receivers who can stretch the field.

Edited March 21, 2011 by Bronco Billy

[SEC=UGA]

Without having watched the rookie camps, here is how i would rank them:

Ponder - Good head for the game. If he get's a decent o-line, should be fine

Mallett - All the physical talent in the world. Needs to get his head on straight

Locker - Meh

Kapernick - Kid has moxy

Vince Young errrr... Cam Newton - Incredible athlete. Needs some work on his vision and needs to learn when not to run.

Gabbert - Great physical specimen. Would work well in a fast offense where he can throw 5 yard crossing routes and the occasional long ball. He will have a tough time translating to an NFL offense.

Dalton - Just don't see it.

Stanzi - Wanted to put him higher, being from the south, I've just not seen enough of him. And in the Northwestern game this year... well, he didn't look too good.

[Seahawks21]

I don't disagree with a ton here, other than the best QB coming in the 2nd round. Drew Brees is the only example of this in the last 20 years. By sheer probability, you have about a 20/1 chance. This could always be the year, but I couldn't bet on it.

 

I think Ponder will be good, but I see more Chad Pennington than Ben Roethlisberger. I think his upside is limited. Will be good, almost sure of it, but I'm almost equally as sure that he won't be elite.

 

I see at least three QB's gone by #12, with 7 teams in the top 12 having a need at the position. It's possible that we don't see the QB run until the 2nd round, but I think if Gabbert and Newton go high, a couple of the other teams are going to get antsy and reach for Mallett/Ponder and possibly Locker/Keapeapearereanek end up at the tail end of round 1 as well.