Realistic expectations for Mark Ingram?

[rajncajn]

I know many people have him as the consensus #1 pick for rookie drafts this season & I'm not sure that can be argued if you still believe that RBs are the breadwinners in fantasy football, but that's a completely different debate. Honestly though, from what I'm seeing so far, I think expectations are a bit too high for him for the immediate future. I do believe the Saints will continue with a RBBC approach and I also believe that both PT & Bush will be with the Saints for at least another couple of years and will continue to play a sizable role. That said, I can't really see Ingram being considered as a high prospect in fantasy terms at least for another couple of seasons. This year I don't see him breaking the 1,000 mark by a decent margin and I'm generously guessing in the range of 6 TD's. I'm expecting more of a Thomas Jones/Marshawn Lynch type output than Arian Foster, but it seems that a lot of people are expecting much more.

[Tford]

I know many people have him as the consensus #1 pick for rookie drafts this season & I'm not sure that can be argued if you still believe that RBs are the breadwinners in fantasy football, but that's a completely different debate. Honestly though, from what I'm seeing so far, I think expectations are a bit too high for him for the immediate future. I do believe the Saints will continue with a RBBC approach and I also believe that both PT & Bush will be with the Saints for at least another couple of years and will continue to play a sizable role. That said, I can't really see Ingram being considered as a high prospect in fantasy terms at least for another couple of seasons. This year I don't see him breaking the 1,000 mark by a decent margin and I'm generously guessing in the range of 6 TD's. I'm expecting more of a Thomas Jones/Marshawn Lynch type output than Arian Foster, but it seems that a lot of people are expecting much more.

 

I think the most you'll see him get is about 130-140 touches for about 800 yards and 5-6 TDs.

 

Even if Bush leaves, there's Hamilton and Ivory still there along with Thomas.

 

JMO

[Bronco Billy]

I know many people have him as the consensus #1 pick for rookie drafts this season & I'm not sure that can be argued if you still believe that RBs are the breadwinners in fantasy football, but that's a completely different debate. Honestly though, from what I'm seeing so far, I think expectations are a bit too high for him for the immediate future. I do believe the Saints will continue with a RBBC approach and I also believe that both PT & Bush will be with the Saints for at least another couple of years and will continue to play a sizable role. That said, I can't really see Ingram being considered as a high prospect in fantasy terms at least for another couple of seasons. This year I don't see him breaking the 1,000 mark by a decent margin and I'm generously guessing in the range of 6 TD's. I'm expecting more of a Thomas Jones/Marshawn Lynch type output than Arian Foster, but it seems that a lot of people are expecting much more.

 

I think you are right on target with your assessment of Ingram's potential and have said as much earlier.

[WashingtonD]

I'm a little more optimistic on his TD count.

 

Yes the Saints had an anemic 9 TDs on the ground last year, but I think that was more of an indication of the relative health and talent of their RBs than it was a change in offensive strategy. 21 in 2009, 21 in 2008...I think Ingram could capture 9-11 of those TDs. I think the touches and total yards that folks above are discussing, but I do think we'll see a boost in NOS rushing TDs and Ingram will get close to 50% of those (ala PThomas in 2008

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Long term he may be one of the top 3 backs coming out this year but for this season I would rank Thomas a head of him for FF value

Edited May 9, 2011 by MustOfBeenDrunk

[stethant]

Can't argue with the rookie draft assessments, but for a redraft league I think his value depends on how and when you need him to contribute, FFL-wise. Early in the year I would expect the RBBC and limited productivity, but later in the year when Thomas and Bush are injured he could produce nicely, similar to a late 2009 season Beanie Wells.

[rajncajn]

Can't argue with the rookie draft assessments, but for a redraft league I think his value depends on how and when you need him to contribute, FFL-wise. Early in the year I would expect the RBBC and limited productivity, but later in the year when Thomas and Bush are injured he could produce nicely, similar to a late 2009 season Beanie Wells.

As I've said many times before, I never factor in injuries when projecting players. More often than not, the injury results in another players production going up rather than the one you expect and many times you spend a good part of the season burning up a roster spot waiting for it to happen and even if it does, it may be for no more than a couple of games. Obviously PT & Bush have a history of getting dinged, but even when they have and then came back, they've returned to their former roles.

[Bronco Billy]

When's the last time a SEC RB picked in the 1st or 2nd round came in and torched the NFL?

Edited May 9, 2011 by Bronco Billy

[Hugh B Tool]

When's the last time a SEC RB picked in the 1st or 2nd round came in and torched the NFL?

 

Sean Alexander? Though certainly not his rookie year

[Infinity]

When's the last time a SEC RB picked in the 1st or 2nd round came in and torched the NFL?

 

If you give him a 2 year bye....Ronnie Brown?

[SLAYER]

When's the last time a SEC RB picked in the 1st or 2nd round came in and torched the NFL?

Cadilac did pretty good his first couple of years.

[Furd]

Cadillac did pretty good his first 4 games.

 

 

Fixed

[Furd]

About 900 yards rushing, 8-9 touchdowns. I don't know how you predict receiving yards. Maybe a smattering.

Edited May 9, 2011 by Furd

[tazinib1]

consensus #1 pick? I have him as #5 on my board.

[MikesVikes]

Cadilac did pretty good his first couple of years.

 

He Broke a 70 yarder againgst the Vikes in his first game. Had a great September, nothing in October, and a few good games in November and in December.

 

Obtw, he had about comnbined 1250 and 6 tds and was OROY.

Edited May 9, 2011 by MikesVikes

[westhemess2]

not a fan of Ingram. something about him just scares me, i like the later round RB's in rookie drafts

[darin3]

consensus #1 pick? I have him as #5 on my board.

While I may not go quite that far, I did have him after the "big two" WRs. First off, the Saints are a pass happy team. Secondly, they have a glut of RBs that have proven their worth, when healthy. That's the key, of course... can the guys stay healthy? I guess the Saints grabbed the value when it was there just in case. It was a great grab by them, I just don't know if it will translate into fantasy success. I'd much rather have Jones or Green if your pick is early in the 1st or take a flyer on a guy like LaShoure or Thomas if you're picking in the middle. Just my

Edited May 10, 2011 by darin3

[digitaldan21]

I say he never becomes a week in week out stud, and people who said he isn't worth #1 overall can pat themselves on the back, but he also has stretches of solid RB1 performance and people who took him #1 overall can pat themselves on the back.

 

Everyone wins, except the Saints.

[polksalet]

1400 total and 12

[peepinmofo]

1400 total and 12

Please post in the correct thread (Bold Predictions). TIA.

[rajncajn]

1400 total and 12

 

Please post in the correct thread (Bold Predictions). TIA.

[Seahawks21]

The Saints didn't spend a 1st round pick on Ingram to be their 3rd RB. I think he'll get every opportunity to be the 1st and 2nd down back. If he can pick up the nuances of the passing game, he could have a pretty big season. The amount of opportunity he gets is completely up to him. If you think Ingram is a talented guy, it's safe to project 1,000 yard numbers. If you think he isn't that talented and Thomas ultimately ends up with the bulk of normal carries and goal-line work, project accordingly. I think he's pretty talented and comes out and runs effectively from the start. I'll say 1,300 total yards and 9 TDs.

[polksalet]

The Saints didn't spend a 1st round pick on Ingram to be their 3rd RB. I think he'll get every opportunity to be the 1st and 2nd down back. If he can pick up the nuances of the passing game, he could have a pretty big season. The amount of opportunity he gets is completely up to him. If you think Ingram is a talented guy, it's safe to project 1,000 yard numbers. If you think he isn't that talented and Thomas ultimately ends up with the bulk of normal carries and goal-line work, project accordingly. I think he's pretty talented and comes out and runs effectively from the start. I'll say 1,300 total yards and 9 TDs.

 

Bingo. They spent the pick on him because Payton thinks he's something special. Usually special backs don't carpool. I look to Ingram to get 80% of the rushing loand and 50% of the backfield passes. Its a given he gets the redzone touches.

[DMD]

Bingo. They spent the pick on him because Payton thinks he's something special. Usually special backs don't carpool. I look to Ingram to get 80% of the rushing loand and 50% of the backfield passes. Its a given he gets the redzone touches.

 

Another agree.

 

The Saints RBs scored 28 TDs (19/9) in 2008, 26 TDs in 2009 (19/7) and only 11 TDs last year (9/2) because of injuries and just plain lack of talent. They expressly wanted to get in a RB that could bring back the rushing game.

 

I would also contend that the Saints have merely "made do" with the backs that they had since Reggie Bush never has been more than a very part time player. Does anyone really think Pierre Thomas is anything more than an average talented back if that? That Chris Ivory is anything more than depth they pray they never need to rely on?

 

Deuce McAllister was the last decent RB they had and he suffered with injuries every year other than 2003.

 

I'm not saying that the Saints are going to use Ingram for 100% of the carries, but I would expect you would see a new sense of a primary back in New Orleans because Ingram should be far better than any Saint RB you have seen in years. And he does catch well too. In a league rife with committees, Ingram landed in a pretty sweet spot. Do those of you down on Ingram expect him to fail or that Payton will force a committee to the extent of sitting a far more talented Ingram in deference to playing mediocre backs?

[rajncajn]

I'm not saying that the Saints are going to use Ingram for 100% of the carries, but I would expect you would see a new sense of a primary back in New Orleans because Ingram should be far better than any Saint RB you have seen in years. And he does catch well too. In a league rife with committees, Ingram landed in a pretty sweet spot. Do those of you down on Ingram expect him to fail or that Payton will force a committee to the extent of sitting a far more talented Ingram in deference to playing mediocre backs?

Honestly, I don't think you give Thomas as much credit as I think he deserves & feel pretty confidently that if not for the injury concerns, the Saints would have never considered moving up for Ingram. Thomas may not be the fastest runner, but I would consider him above average in vision, receiving, setting up blocks and pass protection, I would argue that he's probably one of the best in the league at running the screen, which when he is out, is a sorely missed option from our offense. But again, injuries keep him off the field so often & Payton's insistence on using a multiple backfield have limited his potential. I certainly don't expect Ingram to fail by any means & I'm guessing that if he stays healthy then a few years down the road he could be closer to what everyone is expecting to see now, but given our history, I don't think you'll see Payton giving the "primary" job to any one back anytime in the near future because he doesn't want to risk an injury-marred season like we had last year.