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Top 60 rookies in 2011 drafts


Bronco Billy
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Sort criteria: Rookies, 12 teams, min. 35% of real drafts

 

# Player Avg.

 

1 Green, A.J. CIN WR 8.67

2 Ingram, Mark NOS RB 10.85

3 Jones, Julio ATL WR 12.60

4 Leshoure, Mikel DET RB 18.38

5 Williams, Ryan ARI RB 20.28

6 Thomas, Daniel MIA RB 20.35

7 Little, Greg CLE WR 20.56

8 Miller, Von DEN LB 20.58

9 Vereen, Shane NEP RB 23.58

10 Baldwin, Jon KCC WR 23.99

11 Helu, Roy WAS RB 26.19

12 Smith, Torrey BAL WR 27.71

13 Newton, Cam CAR QB 27.74

14 Cobb, Randall GBP WR 30.86

15 Hunter, Kendall SFO RB 31.22

16 Murray, DeMarco DAL RB 31.40

17 Hankerson, Leonard WAS WR 31.62

18 Gabbert, Blaine JAC QB 32.32

19 Brown, Vincent SDC WR 33.01

20 Irving, Nate DEN LB 33.07

21 Carter, Delone IND RB 35.47

22 Peterson, Patrick ARI CB 36.48

23 Young, Titus DET WR 36.87

24 Foster, Mason TBB LB 37.02

25 Locker, Jake TEN QB 37.65

26 Rodgers, Jacquizz ATL RB 38.87

27 Powell, Bilal NYJ RB 38.89

28 Dalton, Andy CIN QB 38.90

29 Ponder, Christian MIN QB 39.26

30 Green, Alex GBP RB 39.35

31 Quinn, Robert STL DE 39.67

32 Jones, Taiwan OAK RB 40.91

33 Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB 41.32

34 Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE 42.09

35 Salas, Greg STL WR 42.54

36 Carter, Bruce DAL LB 44.43

37 Lewis, Dion PHI RB 45.99

38 Ridley, Stevan NEP RB 46.06

39 Gates, Edmond MIA WR 46.90

40 Pettis, Austin STL WR 47.45

41 Amukamara, Prince NYG CB 48.95

42 Fairley, Nick DET DT 49.33

43 Kendricks, Lance STL TE 49.60

44 Scott, Da'Rel NYG RB 51.67

45 Sheard, Jabaal CLE DE 51.97

46 Dareus, Marcell BUF DT 52.33

47 McCarthy, Colin TEN LB 52.77

48 Jernigan, Jerrel NYG WR 52.81

49 Bowers, Da'Quan TBB DE 53.52

50 Mallett, Ryan NEP QB 53.83

51 White, Johnny BUF RB 54.09

52 Royster, Evan WAS RB 54.71

53 Ayers, Akeem TEN LB 54.90

54 Jarrett, Jaiquawn PHI S 55.00

55 Paul, Niles WAS WR 55.54

56 Wilson, Martez NOS LB 55.63

57 Doss, Tandon BAL WR 55.67

58 Shorts, Cecil JAC WR 55.71

59 Cameron, Jordan CLE TE 56.38

60 Watt, J.J. HOU DE 56.48

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Thought this might be more productive than all the individual draft threads - especially when owners jump in and use this forum as a league forum.

 

Couple of immediate thoughts: Nice to see IDPs included and it really shows how IDP is catching on. Also interesting to look at the AVG number since it indicates that these are startups/redrafts as well as established leagues.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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That list makes me feel better about my recent trade in AOTAOP for my 1.03 Ingram pick for Williams and Irving. I had 1.03 and 1.14 but traded my 2nd round pick earlier in a player trade so trading Ingram and getting Ryan Williams (I did this because I own Wells) and Nate Irving I feel basically gave me my second back with some decent value. Plus I nabbed Torrey Smith with my 1.14

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Immediate impressions:

 

Guys being drafted too high:

 

Leshoure

Little

Miller

Vereen

Helu

Murray

Green (Alex)

 

Guys dropping too far:

 

Cobb

Rodgers

Dalton

Rudolph

Salas

Gates

White

Paul

Green (Virgil)

 

Owners swinging for the fences:

 

Little

Miller

Helu

Newton

Murray

Hankerson

Carter

Locker

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Thought this might be more productive than all the individual draft threads - especially when owners jump in and use this forum as a league forum.

 

 

That list makes me feel better about my recent trade in AOTAOP for my 1.03 Ingram pick for Williams and Irving. I had 1.03 and 1.14 but traded my 2nd round pick earlier in a player trade so trading Ingram and getting Ryan Williams (I did this because I own Wells) and Nate Irving I feel basically gave me my second back with some decent value. Plus I nabbed Torrey Smith with my 1.14

 

:wacko:

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Okay, I'll fill this out a little:

 

Immediate impressions:

 

Guys being drafted too high:

 

Leshoure (4)

 

Goes right into a RBBC with Best, whom DET loves. It's also pretty obvious that DET is trying to put some weapons around Stafford. Best is a better receiving option if DET is going to throw the ball more, and they're going to try to get him at least 15 touches a game. That has to limit Leshoure unless Best gets hurt. There's no way he'll get the 20+ touches per game he'll need to justify being drafted that high. Caveat: Best has a very real injury history and Leshoure could jump way up the list when the smurf gets pounded off the field again. Probably ought to be on the "swinging for the fences" list too.

 

Little (7)

 

Terrible character history both on and off the field, and maintiains his innocence despite getting caught in lies. This guy has future suspension as well as locker room cancer written all over him. Very talented but hasn't produced at a sustained level by any means. How does his game translate in the bigs when he's trying to beat pro CBs who are messing with his head all game?

 

Miller (8)

 

Very strong possibility he'll be playing SLB, and if he stays on the field for 3 downs that he'll move to DE for Ayers on passing downs. That has to hurt his production even if he is a bonafide stud, which I do believe he is. I think he will be the best LB in this draft, but he'll get stuck in a position that will curtail his ability to score in FF. He won't be the FF LB1 his draft position would indicate.

 

Vereen (9)

 

Very, very dicey taking a NE RB and expecting consistent production. People complain about Shanahan and the way he uses RBs - here's the real guy (Belicheck) who will go RBBC and vary their usage with no ability to predict it from game to game. The guy doesn't run with power, he doesn't break tackles, and he doesn't get up to his considerable speed quickly. He does have great hands and some quality open field ability, but I think the only way he makes his bones is as a pass catcher and there are way too many options in NE.

 

Helu (11)

 

It's really difficult to question a Shanahan RB selection - he knows the guys who fit his one-cut downhill system and he exploits them. He also doesn't need his RBs to be pass catchers, which Helu isn't. I just don't think Helu can absorb the punishment he'll get if he is Shanahan's next bell cow, and I'm not sure Shanahan has his passing game and OL in place to exploit his one-cut system yet.

 

Murray (16)

 

I would have loved to see this kid go somewhere that his touches wouldn't get shared in so many different directions. I do think he could have been the real deal as a RB1 for some team. It won't happen in DAL though. Between the passing game being #1 in the O by a wide margin, that Jones and Choice are already there and Jones is JJ's wannabe love child, I just can't see Murray getting anywhere near enough consistent work to do more than some other RBs in the draft. I think some WRs, a couple of TEs, maybe a QB or two, and some D players should have come off the board before this guy diid in FF drafts.

 

Green (Alex) (30)

 

I like this kid, provided he can cure his fumbling issues. But I don't see him as being better than Grant or Starks, and if he is the CoP RB in GB, which I think he is, he's going to be way down the food chain in targets with all the weapons in GB. Good spot for Green, good pick for GB, but a terrible spot for his FF owner.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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Vereen (9)

 

Very, very dicey taking a NE RB and expecting consistent production. People complain about Shanahan and the way he uses RBs - here's the real guy (Belicheck) who will go RBBC and vary their usage with no ability to predict it from game to game. The guy doesn't run with power, he doesn't break tackles, and he doesn't get up to his considerable speed quickly. He does have great hands and some quality open field ability, but I think the only way he makes his bones is as a pass catcher and there are way too many options in NE.

 

I think there are two kinds of people when it comes to Vereen....those that own BJGE and those that don't. I don't know where the guy's value should be, but if I have a pick after 1.08 and I own BJGE, I'm taking Vereen to protect my roster.

 

Otherwise I'll take a player with a better chance at production

Edited by Caveman_Nick
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I think there are two kinds of people when it comes to Vereen....those that own BJGE and those that don't. I don't know where the guy's value should be, but if I have a pick after 1.08 and I own BJGE, I'm taking Vereen to protect my roster.

 

Otherwise I'll take a player with a better chance at production

 

To be honest, that's exactly why I drafted LeShour in one league and R. Williams in another.

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WOW , you mean you got a steal on both? congrats ! :tup:

 

No . . not at all.

 

I was commenting on the overall ADP that was posted in this thread, and specifically avoiding any individual drafts.

 

I personally think that Dalton and White are ranked too low in that average, and I think Green is being drafted WAY too high for fantasy purposes. But that is my opinion based on situation and the individual players.

 

If you want to get into individual leagues, please note that I drafted both OVER their ADP, so I really didnt get a "steal" on them did I? :wacko::lol:

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No . . not at all.

 

I was commenting on the overall ADP that was posted in this thread, and specifically avoiding any individual drafts.

 

I personally think that Dalton and White are ranked too low in that average, and I think Green is being drafted WAY too high for fantasy purposes. But that is my opinion based on situation and the individual players.

 

If you want to get into individual leagues, please note that I drafted both OVER their ADP, so I really didnt get a "steal" on them did I? :wacko::tup:

 

Was only joking, but I do think Dalton will be good in Cincy.

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Thought this might be more productive than all the individual draft threads - especially when owners jump in and use this forum as a league forum.

Really, man? Says you! Personally, I like looking at the individual league drafts. This is a forum about football. If you don't want to read a thread then you have the option of avoiding it but please don't make up my mind or anyone else's on what is preferred.

 

I don't even know what thread you're referring to. I only know that it's annoying that you made a point to isolate certain individuals.

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Just curious... Since these are average rankings, and they include IDP, does that mean the average is calculated only by collecting data from IDP leagues? In other words, I've seen similar lists, over the years, where IDP is included, but defensive players are all listed much lower than they're being drafted... the only conclusion I can take from that is that some of the leagues used in the calculation include IDP, while others don't (which might skew the rankings a bit, depending on how they calculate "average").

 

In other words, if I take three leagues (two of which are IDP, the third is not), and look at where Peterson (random example) is drafted, I get this:

 

1 - 35th pick overall

2 - 45th pick overall

3 - Not drafted (IDP)

 

The average SHOULD be 40th, but if you factor in League #3 as not drafted, and actually use that in the calculation, it makes his "average" much lower/worse.

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I guess what I'm saying is this... When I see rankings like this, I'm always very hesitant to use them as a "gauge" of where defensive players should be drafted, in relation to offensive players, for that exact reason. You never know whether it's a measure of IDP leagues only, or if there are simply IDP leagues included (which is a big difference). Where these rankings CAN be helpful is looking at players of the same position, and trying to get an idea of how long you can afford to wait on a paricular player. Of course, with scoring (and other factors, such as lineup requirements, etc.) being different in almost every league, you also have to be careful about comparing players from various positions, also.

 

But, yeah, I agree... It's nice to have a general list like this, as opposed to scouring dozens of individual draft reports, to try to get an idea of where a player may fall. Still, it seems like every league is different... I'm in the middle of four IDP drafts right now (3 16-team leagues with nearly identical rules/scoring, as well as one 32-teamer), and players are being drafted all over the board. A guy could go late in the 2nd in one draft, and last until the 5th in another (with several of the same owners in both). :wacko:

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All of that said, these rankings (at first glance, and a quick glance at that) look to be fairly accurate. In other words, I don't see the IDP "deflation" that I've seen in other lists in the past. So, my guess is that this data was collected from ONLY IDP leagues. :wacko:

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Really, man? Says you! Personally, I like looking at the individual league drafts. This is a forum about football. If you don't want to read a thread then you have the option of avoiding it but please don't make up my mind or anyone else's on what is preferred.

 

I don't even know what thread you're referring to. I only know that it's annoying that you made a point to isolate certain individuals.

 

:wacko:

 

Okay...

 

Didn't realize that starting my own thread about ADPs of rookies was preventing you from going into the other individual draft threads. By all means, you may continue to visit the other threads. You have my permission.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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