IDP Rookie Rankings

[darin3]

1. Patrick Peterson (CB - ARI): I thought Peterson was one of the best 2 or 3 players in this draft, period. I also think he projects better as a safety. Either way, he's going to have a ton of value, especially in leagues that score for return stats.

 

2. Jaiquawn Jarrett (S - PHI): Honestly, if Quintin Mikell were already gone, Jarrett would probably be in a tie for first here if not outright first. He's aggressive, has tremendous ball skills and can help in stopping the run game. He'll be worthy of starting in redraft leagues, let alone dynasty formats.

 

3. Shiloh Keo (S - HOU): The Texans were/are super high on this cat and he'll have a shot to start at SS. The defensive backfield is crowded, but it's littered with CB converts and average talents. Wade Phillips loved Keo's "football IQ and aggressiveness". After the Texans declined Bernard Pollard's tender, it left the job wide open.

 

4. Jimmy Smith (CB - BAL): He has off-field issues, but if there's any squad that can right this ship, it's the Ray Lewis led Ravens. Many outlets have him penciled in as a starter and this physical corner who's not afraid of making open-field tackles will have a chance to put up good fantasy numbers from the get-go.

5. Quentin Carter (S - DEN): Rahim Moore might be better in the short term, but Carter's long-term prospects look good in the Denver scheme.

6. Rahim Moore (S - DEN): As hinted to above, Carter and Moore will vie for the Bronco free safety spot (with aging vet Renaldo Hill currently occupying the position). One of the two guys will likely pan out.

 

7. Ahmad Black (S - TBB): Black is vastly undersized but was productive for a good Florida Gator defense. He'll get time from the start and could compete for a starting spot.

 

8. Aaron Williams (CB - BUF): We've seen that a Bill CB can produce fantasy points in the past, and with Terrence McGee getting up there in age, Williams will challenge for a starting spot as a rookie. Big-time sleeper here. He was a bit under-rated while at Texas.

 

9. Jermale Hines (S - STL): Lots of turnover for the Ram secondary. James Butler currently holds the starting SS spot, but could be pushed by Hines, especially if Butler can't stay off the trainer's table.

 

10. Brandon Harris (CB - HOU): He'll compete for a starting spot, but the Texans CB spot hasn't ever really produced fantasy value. Tread carefully in leagues that combine CB and S. Definitely worth drafting in leagues that start CB.

 

Just Missed Out/Special Mention:

Prince Amukamara (CB - NYG): Terrrell Thomas showed that Giant corners can produce fantasy points, but will opposing QBs test the Prince? Great talent and worth a shot for sure.

 

Edited - Completely skipped over a couple guys on my handwritten list

Edited May 22, 2011 by darin3
E

[Bronco Billy]

What a crappy bunch. Seriously, this is a FF wasteland this year.

 

Peterson? AZ is going to play him at CB. With his size, speed, and playmaking ability, he can completely take away the other team's WR1 - even the really big guys - which in effect completely changes the other team's game plan. He'll get to learn his trade by going H2H with Fitz in practice - how's that for a chance to hone your skills? Peterson will be a stud CB, I have no doubt. He may even suprpass Revis as the best currently in the game. But as a FF CB? He'll get tested some as a rookie, but watch his opportunities drop as teams start to throw away from him. How did Revis score in your FF league last season?

 

If you have to have a CB, I think the guys to have are Smith and Amakumara. Both guys go to teams that are strong against the run and tend to get ahead of the other team as the game progresses, so other teams will be more prone to pass; and both teams can put a lot of heat on the other QB, meaning the chance of poor throws and mistakes are greater. That means a lot more opportunity for the CBs on those teams. Strong front 7s make even mediocre CBs look good, they can make the solid to very good CBs look great. Both guys fit the bill. I like Amakumara a little better than Smith in terms of being more willing to roll the dice and make a play on the ball. That's not a knock on Smith - he just plays a little more conservatively and doesn't risk getting burned nearly as much.

 

The rest of the CBs? You're probably going to have to wait for an injury or a retirement for them to get a serious chance. You can pick up WW vets or rooks who drop through the draft who will have just as good an opportunity in those events if you pay close attention, and use your draft picks elsewhere.

 

As far as Safeties, there is Jarrett head and shoulders above everyone else, then there is a tier with Keo and Black, and then there is the rest of the bunch with no one particularly standing out.

 

Jarrett is hardly a stud safety, but he's still far out in front of the rest of these guys. If Mikell is still there, Jarrett will have a tough time getting on the field. If PHI decides to go with youth, the PHI SS spot is a good consistent point generator and Jarrett has enough talent to take advantage.

 

Keo and Carter are in the next tier, albeit a little ways down from Jarrett, not because they are necessarily the next most talented but that there are gaping holes at SS in HOU and DEN respectively. Both guys will get every opportunity to step in and start immediately, and there just isn't much in front of either guy to keep them off the field (no disrepect to Brian Dawkins in DEN because he had a superb career, but PHI let him go 3 years ago because he was such a cover liability and he has gone way downhill since).

 

The rest of this bunch? If they get any kind of regular action it will be because they pull off a major surprise and show ability that they didn't to date in college/combines/workouts, or that the guy in front of them got hurt. It's difficult to consider FSs unless a team plays a 2-deep system where FSs are held much closer to the LoS than traditionally, and even then they are going to be lined up shaded to the WR1 side and have the deep inside responsibility, which means their first move is away from the LoS.

 

I keep hearing people talikng about Black's chances at SS in TB, but he's just plain tiny for a SS and even poor blocking TEs will engulf him, much less asking him to withstand attacking NFL size/strength RBs to get the numbers he'd need to be FF feasible. He's going to be a liability despite how hard nosed and opportunistic he is.

 

I put the guys like this:

 

1) Jarrett (S) - not because he's great but because he's the best of the SSs and he will get his chance, which willl be a plum, if Mikell is gone.

2a) Amakumara (CB) - by a hair because he'll take a few more chances

2b) Smith (CB)

3) Carter (S) - not because of talent, but because there's nothing there to stop him on his team and with a younger weaker front 7 he'll get more chances

4) Keo (S) - see Black but with more pieces in place on the D side, reducing his potential opportunities

5) Everyone else, including Peterson out of sheer utter respect for his game and not because he's going to struggle

[Sturphy]

Guys... thoughts on Aaron Williams as a tackle machine at CB for the Bills? Every Longhorn game I saw, he was making big tackles. Seems like the classic: CB that likes to tackle that everyone forgets about because he isn't a Safety. Of course, I guess there's a chance he ends up as a Safety, but haven't heard that talk yet.

 

Darin, I know you watch Longhorns games, did you see him eat guys up like I did... or is my late round pick putting a soft filter on my recollection?

[darin3]

Guys... thoughts on Aaron Williams as a tackle machine at CB for the Bills? Every Longhorn game I saw, he was making big tackles. Seems like the classic: CB that likes to tackle that everyone forgets about because he isn't a Safety. Of course, I guess there's a chance he ends up as a Safety, but haven't heard that talk yet.

 

Darin, I know you watch Longhorns games, did you see him eat guys up like I did... or is my late round pick putting a soft filter on my recollection?

Definitely a name to watch. The Horn defense was a huge disappointment last season, so Williams' play kind of fell in line with the entire defense stinkin' it up. He'll get looks from the get-go and he actually may get looks at FS, at least according to a couple depth charts I've seen.

[Vintage]

I picked up Prince and Searcy as fliers. I think http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6634/danorris-searcy may land the strong safety position in Buffalo when free agency opens, if Whitner leaves (he's not even on roto's depth chart ATM. Buffalo has a really good record for picking up quality fantasy productive defensive backs. This is a very nice list, I just wanted to give a shout out for a name that wasn't mentioned. Most don't think this is a very good class for safeties anyway, but Jarrett is clearly on everyone's watch list. Jarrett and Peterson are definately worth drafting this year, I prefer Peterson in return yardage leagues.

[Bronco Billy]

I picked up Prince and Searcy as fliers. I think http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6634/danorris-searcy may land the strong safety position in Buffalo when free agency opens, if Whitner leaves (he's not even on roto's depth chart ATM. Buffalo has a really good record for picking up quality fantasy productive defensive backs. This is a very nice list, I just wanted to give a shout out for a name that wasn't mentioned. Most don't think this is a very good class for safeties anyway, but Jarrett is clearly on everyone's watch list. Jarrett and Peterson are definately worth drafting this year, I prefer Peterson in return yardage leagues.

 

I don't like Searcy to beat out Wilson by any stretch of the imagination

[peepinmofo]

I don't like Searcy to beat out Wilson by any stretch of the imagination

No way that happens. Wilson will be the SS if Whitner leaves (which IMO he is as good as gone already). Searcy might be the long term answer though as Wilson is 30+ already I think.