3rd year WR worth grabbing...

[Slugs3511]

Most fantasy football guys and gals, know there are a couple of 3rd year WRs on teams that grab the spotlight and erupt in otherwise obscure ways....these are the players that most of the time can make you seem like a genius...

I was just curious in looking at some....Who do you or will you target in the mid to late rounds as a 3rd year WR?

I play in ppr leagues, so here are my top 3....

 

For me....

1. Butler

2. Knox

3. Armendola

 

 

Any thoughts....Remember, I will not include the likes of Britt, Nicks, or Wallace who have already shown improvements as great 2nd year WRs.....

[Bronco Billy]

3rd year WRs and their draft position:

 

1.7 Darrius Heyward-Bey Raiders

1.10 Michael Crabtree 49ers

1.19 Jeremy Maclin Eagles

1.22 Percy Harvin Vikings

1.29 Hakeem Nicks Giants

1.30 Kenny Britt Titans

2.4 Brian Robiskie Browns

2.18 Mohammed Massoquoi Browns

3.18 Derrick Williams Lions

3.19 Brandon Tate Patriots

3.20 Mike Wallace Steelers

3.21 Ramses Barden Giants

3.23 Patrick Turner Dolphins

3.27 Deon Butler Seahawks

3.35 Juaquin Iglesias Bears

4.7 Mike Thomas Jaguars

4.8 Brian Hartline Dolphins

4.24 Louis Murphy Raiders

4.27 Austin Collie Colts

5.4 Johnny Knox Bears

5.5 Kenny McKinley Broncos

5.8 Jarett Dillard Jaguars

5.24 Brooks Foster Rams

6.2 Quinten Lawrence Chiefs

6.21 Brandon Gibson Eagles

6.33 Dominique Edison Titans

7.15 Demetrius Byrd Chargers

7.20 Manuel Johnson Cowboys

7.24 Sammie Stroughter Buccaneers

7.34 Marko Mitchell Redskins

7.42 Derek Kinder Bears

7.43 Freddie Brown Bengals

7.44 Tiquan Underwood Jaguars

[montster]

I've seen a lot of items saying Josh McDaniels could do for Amendola what he already did with Wes Welker. Seeing as I have Amendola on my dynasty team, that would be nice.

[bpwallace49]

Austin Collie

Louis Murphy

Mike Thomas

 

 

All the others are fairly obvious . . . like crabtree/Nicks, etc. . .

[Bronco Billy]

3rd year UDFAs (don't know how many are still around)

 

Dolphins

WR Brennan Marion (Tulsa

WR Chris Williams (New Mexico St.)

 

Jets

WR Britt Davis (Northern Illinois)

 

Chiefs

WR Taurus Johnson (South Florida)

 

Chargers

WR Greg Carr (FSU)

WR Rodrigues Smith (Auburn)

 

Raiders

WR Nick Miller (Southern Utah)

WR Shawn Bayes (Kent State)

 

Broncos

WR Lucas Taylor (Tennessee)

WR Travis Shelton, Temple

WR David Grimes (Notre Dame)

 

Steelers

WR Tyler Grisham (Clemson)

WR Demiko Goodman (Georgia)

 

Ravens

WR Eron Riley (Duke)

 

Browns

WR Jordan Norwood (Penn St.)

WR Brent Casteel (Utah)

 

Bengals

WR Quan Cosby (Texas)

WR Greg Orton (Purdue)

 

Colts

WR John Matthews (San Diego)

 

Jaguars

WR Jason English (Tuskegee)

WR Todd Peterson (Nebraska)

WR Maurice Dupree (Jacksonville St.)

 

Texans

WR Michael Jones (Arizona State)

 

Titans

WR Dudley Guice (NW State)

 

Eagles

WR Brandon Robinson (Boston College)

 

Redskins

WR Josh Briscoe (Tennessee)

WR Jason Williams (Oregon)

WR John Halman (Concordia)

 

Cowboys

WR Kevin Ogletree (Virginia)

WR Julian Hawkins (Boise St)

 

49ers

WR Dobson Collins (Gardner-Webb)

 

Cardinals

WR Justin Brown (Hampton)

WR Shane Morales (Oregon St.)

 

Rams

WR Quentin Chaney (Oklahmoma)

 

Bears

WR Eric Peterman (Northwestern)

 

Packers

WR Andy Brodell (Iowa)

WR Kole Heckendorf (North Dakota State)

WR Jaron Harris (SDSU)

WR Patrick Williams (Colorado)

WR Jamarko Simmons (Western Michigan)

 

Vikings

WR Vinny Perreta (Boise St.)

WR Nick Walker (Alabama)

WR Nick Moore (Toledo)

 

Lions

WR DJ Boldin (Wake Forest)

 

Bucs

WR Tommy Saunders (Mizzou)


 

Falcons

WR Aaron Kelly (Clemson)

WR Darren Mougey (SDSU)

 

Panthers

WR Jason Cherry (UL-Lafayette)

WR Larry Beavers (Wesley)

 

Saints

WR Chris Vaughn (Louisville)

WR Matt Simon (Northern Illinois)

WR Ken Harris (Georgia)

[i_am_the_swammi]

I'd gladly take a mid-to-late round flier on Brandon Tate, who right now wouldn't be a fantasy first-round pick if we were drafting just 3rd-year WRs.

 

With Moss now gone, he can step in and earn himself a role from the get-go in training camp....he's a deep threat that, if utilized consistently by Brady and BB, could easily put up top-20 stats.

[Bronco Billy]

Excluding Crabtree, Maclin, Harvin, Nicks, Britt, Wallace, Collie

 

Lot of love early on Amendola. I see him as being awfully average and benefited simply by being able to remain healthy while other STL WRs weren't. I also seeing Salas and his college video game ypc numbers as being a perfect fit in a NE type slot position. I don't think Amendola is talented enough to hold off Salas - maybe even as early as week 1.

 

Like Knox a lot - he and Cutler have some chemistry developing, but I don't think people will sleep on him this year.

 

Like Mike Thomas a bunch and see some Steve Smith in him. Probably go a little later.

 

Not sure how much opportunity Butler gets in SEA with Williams and Tate there, plus a likely FA signing (maybe a James Jones type player)

 

Loius Murphy is a legit sleeper if he can get his head on straight.

 

Tate and Dillard seem worthy of a last round flyer. Bey is also, but I think someon would take a earlier shot than me at him.

 

Be keeping a very close WW eye on Stroughter depending on Benn's recovery

[Seahawks21]

I think Butler will get the chance to start, but not sure how much production I'd expect. Hasselbeck doesn't seem to trust him a ton, and who knows if Hasselbeck is even going to play. I wouldn't be too worried about Golden Tate. He got himself so far in the doghouse it might take another team to get him out. The Seahawks passing game seems to be Mike Williams and then everybody else lingers somewhere off in the distance. He may have hot games depending on matchups, but I think consistency with Butler is going to be hard to find. Also, he doesn't play nearly as fast as his 40 time would indicate. He's a lot more Bobby Engram than Desean Jackson.

[delusions of grandeur]

I'd love to say Crabtree, but I think that's more wishful thinknig on my part than grounded in reality. Who knows though, we know he has potential to be great, but didn't show any signs of progress last year, and 2011 looks to be another year with Alex Smith.

 

I really don't see many breakout candidates, other than the ones who have already broken out. The OP's list has some guys with good potential, but each one has things standing in their way:

1. Butler - Unless they bring in another QB, it might be tough for him if Whitehurst can't take advantage of the speedy wide-out. Also keep in mind he was benched last year for Obamanu, and I'm a big believer in Tate once he's polished (perhaps by his third year, but maybe sooner).

2. Amendola - I think his job is the safest of any STL wideout, but at the same time, they've suddenly become very crowded with competition for targets. He did lead the NFL in all-purpose yards last year and could have Welker-type role under McDaniels, so I'd put him near the top of my potential sleeper list, but don't know how high his ceiling will be in non-return leagues, with Avery coming back to go along with a large number of potentially good targets for Bradford. You could see a situation where different guys are putting up the stats all year.

3. Knox - I'd probably put him at #1 out of the non-obvious 3rd year WRs, just because there's nobody else in Chicago capable of being that #1 wideout, and he pretty consistently put up nice numbers last year that he should be able to build on and break the 1,000 yard mark (hopefully with a few more TDs). However, if Chicago goes out and picks up a top WR in free-agency, his value could take a bit of a hit, though I don't think there are many free agent WRs they're likely to land who could keep the ball out of his hands.

 

Austin Collie

Louis Murphy

Mike Thomas

I thought you were the one with personal experience of concussions that felt Collie was 1 concussion away from being done?

Edited June 15, 2011 by delusions of granduer

[delfamdelfam]

I like Tiquan Underwood, MSW is leaving and Mike Thomas will be going against the #1CB on the other team.

[Big John]

I thought you were the one with personal experience of concussions that felt Collie was 1 concussion away from being done?

He did have concussions, but it was Chargers who said he could possibly be done.

 

http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?s=&a...howtopic=345784

[Bronco Billy]

I wouldn't be too worried about Golden Tate. He got himself so far in the doghouse it might take another team to get him out.

 

From yesterday:

 

High expectations for Tate: Carroll again singled out second-year receiver Golden Tate as a player he’s expecting to have a breakout year in 2011.

 

Tate finished with only 21 catches in his rookie season. Tate made some jaw-dropping plays at practice during training camp and the early part of the regular season, but he struggled with running precise routes and making the proper reads in order to get regular playing time.

 

But Carroll believes Tate should see the field more in 2011, particularly in third-down situations as the slot receiver, similar to how Brandon Stokley was used last season.

 

That’s an interesting development because Stokley worked with Tate a lot after practice on improving his route running in his rookie season.

 

Stokley was 14th in the league in percentage of catches for first downs in 2010, with 23 of his 31 catches moving the chains.

 

“There’s nothing that we would like to see more than to elevate Golden’s effectiveness,” Carroll said. “We just didn’t get him over the hump last year, and we need to do that. He’ll be in position to take over a huge role for us.”

 

link

[bpwallace49]

I thought you were the one with personal experience of concussions that felt Collie was 1 concussion away from being done?

 

And considering we are talking about later round fliers . . . he would qualify. The risk/reward in the mid to later rounds is well worth it if he stays healthy.

[Bronco Billy]

good stuff. Why Stroughter over Briscoe?

 

Stroughter is supposedly having real good workouts in informal offseason sessions. Briscoe is worth watching also - but TBs starters are Williams and Benn barring injury. Stroughter seems to me to be more naturally fitted to the slot.

[Scooby's Hubby]

Does Jordy Nelson qualify? He would be my pick if so. I think he is 4th year but seems to qualify for what you are looking for.

 

Alot of people like Quan Cosby but with a rookie QB maybe not yet.

Edited June 16, 2011 by Scooby's Hubby

[Big John]

Does Jordy Nelson qualify? He would be my pick if so. I think he is 4th year but seems to qualify for what you are looking for.

Indeed 4th year, so would not qualify.

[Brentastic]

Does Jordy Nelson qualify? He would be my pick if so. I think he is 4th year but seems to qualify for what you are looking for.

 

Alot of people like Quan Cosby but with a rookie QB maybe not yet.

I think he does qualify. It's not like year 3 is absolutely the magic number. In my experience, the breakout for WRs usually occurs between years 2-4. 3 is just the mean number but I don't think year 3 is any more certain for a breakout than year 2 or 4. Just my $0.02

[Bronco Billy]

Not just your two cents.

 

I read a statistical breakdown recently that said about 80% of all WRs that breakout do so between years 2-4 with a pretty even distribution. About 10% do it in year one and the remainder happen in year five and later with no later year seemingly 'magic'.

 

So really, only 25% or so breakout in year three, but since it's so common to believe that it's year three, we're better off looking in years two and four for breakout candidates since everyone else will over-value year three.

 

I'm not worried about posting this as not many people will actually read this and most of those who do won't believe it

 

Given that most people are excluding the same 5 to 6 WRs from the list, I'd say most recognize it and are adjusting their opinions to others beside those 5/6 guys...

[Delicious_bass]

3rd year WRs and their draft position:

 

1.7 Darrius Heyward-Bey Raiders

1.10 Michael Crabtree 49ers

1.19 Jeremy Maclin Eagles

1.22 Percy Harvin Vikings

1.29 Hakeem Nicks Giants

1.30 Kenny Britt Titans

2.4 Brian Robiskie Browns

2.18 Mohammed Massoquoi Browns

3.18 Derrick Williams Lions

3.19 Brandon Tate Patriots

3.20 Mike Wallace Steelers

3.21 Ramses Barden Giants

3.23 Patrick Turner Dolphins

3.27 Deon Butler Seahawks

3.35 Juaquin Iglesias Bears

4.7 Mike Thomas Jaguars

4.8 Brian Hartline Dolphins

4.24 Louis Murphy Raiders

4.27 Austin Collie Colts

5.4 Johnny Knox Bears

5.5 Kenny McKinley Broncos

5.8 Jarett Dillard Jaguars

5.24 Brooks Foster Rams

6.2 Quinten Lawrence Chiefs

6.21 Brandon Gibson Eagles

6.33 Dominique Edison Titans

7.15 Demetrius Byrd Chargers

7.20 Manuel Johnson Cowboys

7.24 Sammie Stroughter Buccaneers

7.34 Marko Mitchell Redskins

7.42 Derek Kinder Bears

7.43 Freddie Brown Bengals

7.44 Tiquan Underwood Jaguars

I took Massoquoi, Murphy, and Tate (not in that order) in the late rounds of an initial Dynasty draft this spring. Knox is my keeper in another league (that has a funky rule about whom you can keep).

 

Obviously hoping for some breakout performances out of these fellas.

[Brentastic]

 

6 years later and my stance hasn't changed.. You will see in that thread, however, that people love to hate my opinions and ideas because I'm usually ahead of the curve. Now that my stance is more widely accepted or at least understood more completely, the hate has disolved.

[Bronco Billy]

6 years later and my stance hasn't changed.. You will see in that thread, however, that people love to hate my opinions and ideas because I'm usually ahead of the curve. Now that my stance is more widely accepted or at least understood more completely, the hate has disolved.

 

I'm not sure what I gather from your link, Mr. Ahead Of The Curve, other than you identified a presumption that all 3rd year WRs will break out (not sure where that came from, since it's obviously false) and you showed that there are multiple exceptions (particularly WRs who don't pan out to be any kind of meaningful contributor at WR). Well, thanks.

 

Personally, I really like to look at an increase in production from yr 1 to yr 2 to get a handle on which WRs seem likely to break out. Even if yr 2 production isn't spectacular (after all, they haven't broken out yet or we wouldn't be looking for them) I like to look for guys who show progression in learning the game as well as greater contribution to the team's O.

Edited June 16, 2011 by Bronco Billy

[Delicious_bass]

6 years later and my stance hasn't changed.. You will see in that thread, however, that people love to hate my opinions and ideas because I'm usually ahead of the curve. Now that my stance is more widely accepted or at least understood more completely, the hate has disolved.

[bpwallace49]

6 years later and my stance hasn't changed.. You will see in that thread, however, that people love to hate my opinions and ideas because I'm usually ahead of the curve. Now that my stance is more widely accepted or at least understood more completely, the hate has disolved.

 

You have also predicted the end of the economy and life as we know it several times senor . . . Just sayin'

[rajncajn]

Not 3rd year, but the most likely candidate for the Saints is 4th year Robert Meachem

[NAUgrad]

I'm not sure what I gather from your link, Mr. Ahead Of The Curve, other than you identified a presumption that all 3rd year WRs will break out (not sure where that came from, since it's obviously false) and you showed that there are multiple exceptions (particularly WRs who don't pan out to be any kind of meaningful contributor at WR). Well, thanks.

 

Personally, I really like to look at an increase in production from yr 1 to yr 2 to get a handle on which WRs seem likely to break out. Even if yr 2 production isn't spectacular (after all, they haven't broken out yet or we wouldn't be looking for them) I like to look for guys who show progression in learning the game as well as greater contribution to the team's O.

Did you actually read the link? Because that's not what he said at all. He was very consistent as everyone else on this thread that years 2-4 seem to be the common break out years.