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#1 Overall Pick In A New Dynasty League


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Just started a $750 dynasty today...had pick 8...Charles and Chris Johnson both were on the board...PPR league....who would you take ?

 

Was tough call went Charles believe it or not I am guessing not the pick most would have gone with.

 

This was possible because some guy insanely took Rodgers at pick #2....what is that about ?

 

I was actually thinking neither had any chance to make it to 8...they both went top 4 in the other $750 this year.

 

Crazyness I tell you...crazyness

Edited by Henry Muto
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Even with it being only a half-point per reception, I'd take Chris Johnson first overall in a startup dynasty. He has a ton of tread on those tires and will be the centerpiece of the Titan offense for years to come. :wacko:

Amazingly in my league we are on pick 9 and he is still on the board.

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How do 8 year olds have $750 to spend on FF? :wacko:

 

If you go read some posts there are crazy people who believe Rodgers should be #1 overall pick in start up dynastys. I certainly don't agree but was thankful someone was in my league that did.

 

Also one guy had picks 3-5-7 and he already took McCoy and Rice so he opted for Nicks over taking Charles/Chris Johnson so he would not end up with all bad WR's that really affected the draft and I am thankful.

 

Top 8 picks went

 

1.01 Jim Blam Foster (Hou) RB

1.02 Finesse Rodgers (GB) QB

1.03 BlackHawks McCoy (Phil) RB

1.04 Monsoon Fog Peterson (Minn) RB

1.05 BlackHawks Rice (Blt) RB

1.06 Rude Awakening Johnson (Det) WR

1.07 BlackHawks Nicks (NYG) WR

1.08 Gryphons Charles (KC) RB

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Foster went #2 followed by the typical run on RB's. I figured long term Megratron would pay off. RB's have a much shorter shelf life. It was a gamble but what the heck. So right now I ma looking at a team of:

 

Megatron Johnson

Dez Bryant

Steve Johnson

Percy Harvin

Antonio Gates

 

I am a big fan of Percy, perhaps because he is a local kid.

 

 

Not that anyone really cares that much but here is how my team is shaping up:

 

Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB - pick #8.12

Bryant, Dez DAL WR - pick #2.12

Harvin, Percy MIN WR - pick #4.12

Johnson, Calvin DET WR - pick #1.01

Johnson, Steve BUF WR - pick #5.01

Gates, Antonio SDC TE - pick #3.01

Allen, Jared MIN DE - pick #7.01

Bishop, Desmond GBP LB - pick #6.12

Landry, LaRon WAS S - pick #9.01

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I like your agressive play in delaying in getting a RB. Did you try to trade out of 1.01 cuz you could've still gotten Calvin later and picked up something.

 

are you holding a seperate rookie draft?

 

 

Tried ain't the word for it. We are having a seperate rookie draft. I get the 1.12 spot. :wacko:

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If you go read some posts there are crazy people who believe Rodgers should be #1 overall pick in start up dynastys. I certainly don't agree but was thankful someone was in my league that did.

 

Also one guy had picks 3-5-7 and he already took McCoy and Rice so he opted for Nicks over taking Charles/Chris Johnson so he would not end up with all bad WR's that really affected the draft and I am thankful.

 

Top 8 picks went

 

1.01 Jim Blam Foster (Hou) RB

1.02 Finesse Rodgers (GB) QB

1.03 BlackHawks McCoy (Phil) RB

1.04 Monsoon Fog Peterson (Minn) RB

1.05 BlackHawks Rice (Blt) RB

1.06 Rude Awakening Johnson (Det) WR

1.07 BlackHawks Nicks (NYG) WR

1.08 Gryphons Charles (KC) RB

It pains me as a Vikings fan to say it, but how can you not like the guy to be lighting it up for the next several years? He should be just coming into his prime and you can make the argument he is the top fantasy QB already.

 

Obviously, no player is a lock to stay healthy nor continue to perform at an elite level, but I think history (especially more recent history) would show that an elite QB tends to have a longer career in the NFL than the RBs because the RBs wear out faster. AP,AF,CJ, RR, JC, LM, etc are all great players and any one of them could be in line for a HUGH season, but how long do you feel good about them lasting given the punishment they take? RB seems to be the position a player can go from elite to done the quickest. And a guy like Foster could disappear as quickly as he emerged. IIRC, he only got his shot because someone else got hurt. Throw in the trend that increasingly fewer RB are every down players and more teams have their "specialists" (ie short yd/gl, 3rd down, screen, gadget, etc) and it makes it tougher to count on RBs for as steady production as they used to get you. I realize you can use that same logic to make the argument for making sure you get one of the few elite backs left but I think that's getting tougher to do.

 

Anyways, not saying I am right or anyone else is wrong. I just think you can make a very solid argument for building a dynasty team around a player like Rodgers. I think it is easier to give a guy like that a bigger contract and feel better that you've locked up a top-5 QB who (depending on your scoring) has a legit chance to be the top overall scoring player in fantasy a couple times over the next 5 years and consistently in the top 10 overall scorers. Take a RB like Peterson and maybe you have a top overall scorer for a year but maybe he hits the wall hard in two years. Now you're out a RB and you may have to take a cap hit on the rest of his contract on top.

 

Different ways to look at it I guess...

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It pains me as a Vikings fan to say it, but how can you not like the guy to be lighting it up for the next several years? He should be just coming into his prime and you can make the argument he is the top fantasy QB already.

 

Obviously, no player is a lock to stay healthy nor continue to perform at an elite level, but I think history (especially more recent history) would show that an elite QB tends to have a longer career in the NFL than the RBs because the RBs wear out faster. AP,AF,CJ, RR, JC, LM, etc are all great players and any one of them could be in line for a HUGH season, but how long do you feel good about them lasting given the punishment they take? RB seems to be the position a player can go from elite to done the quickest. And a guy like Foster could disappear as quickly as he emerged. IIRC, he only got his shot because someone else got hurt. Throw in the trend that increasingly fewer RB are every down players and more teams have their "specialists" (ie short yd/gl, 3rd down, screen, gadget, etc) and it makes it tougher to count on RBs for as steady production as they used to get you. I realize you can use that same logic to make the argument for making sure you get one of the few elite backs left but I think that's getting tougher to do.

 

Anyways, not saying I am right or anyone else is wrong. I just think you can make a very solid argument for building a dynasty team around a player like Rodgers. I think it is easier to give a guy like that a bigger contract and feel better that you've locked up a top-5 QB who (depending on your scoring) has a legit chance to be the top overall scoring player in fantasy a couple times over the next 5 years and consistently in the top 10 overall scorers. Take a RB like Peterson and maybe you have a top overall scorer for a year but maybe he hits the wall hard in two years. Now you're out a RB and you may have to take a cap hit on the rest of his contract on top.

 

Different ways to look at it I guess...

 

 

To me it comes down to value and point differential - I am much more confident in my ability to find a QB much later in the draft that will net me similar points to these top QBs.

 

 

(Note: Rankings referenced below are for PPG, not total points)

 

For example, in one league that uses the relatively standard 1 pt per 20 yards passing, 4 pts per TD and -1 per INT, Rodgers only outscored Roth by about 2.5 points per game (Rodgers was #2 behind Vick, Roth was the #7 QB). Looking at the difference between Rodgers and the #13 QB (Schaub in this case), there was only a difference of 4.5 points per game.

 

Now, on the RB side, (1 per 10 rushing, 6 pt TDs, 1 PPR), the #1 RB was Foster, who outscored the #13 RB (Pierre Thomas) by just over 9 points per game, and outscored the #25 RB (BGE - assuming 2 required RB starters vs. 1 QB in a 12 teamer) by 12.5 points.

 

And for WRs (same scoring as RBs) the #1 WR (White) outscored #12 (DJax) by 4.3 PPG, #24 (Welker) by 5.7 PPG and #36 (OchoCinco) by 7.5 PPG.

 

 

Looking at these numbers (granted, this is just a 1 year snapshot, so may not necessarily be indicative of time averaged values, though past research on this indicates it is close to normal), it is yet again, at least IMO, very obvious that it is easy to find a QB that will average close to the top QBs in scoring much later (in this case, we see a drop of 2.5 PPG based on last year between the #2 overall pick and the 96th overall pick compared to much larger expected dropoffs between RBs taken early (again, big assumption that they perform near their draft order) and to a lesser extent, the dropoff at WR. The numbers above indicate that there is almost no significant difference in production between the #12 and #24 WRs (ie your WR2s in 12 team leagues), so really no need to rush to take WRs early or often.

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Not that anyone really cares that much but here is how my team is shaping up:

 

Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB - pick #8.12

Bryant, Dez DAL WR - pick #2.12

Harvin, Percy MIN WR - pick #4.12

Johnson, Calvin DET WR - pick #1.01

Johnson, Steve BUF WR - pick #5.01

Gates, Antonio SDC TE - pick #3.01

Allen, Jared MIN DE - pick #7.01

Bishop, Desmond GBP LB - pick #6.12

Landry, LaRon WAS S - pick #9.01

 

Love the Dez pick but Calvin at 1 seems crazy to me. You could get a stud RB that is young that will last 4-5 years at top level maybe even longer look how long LT lasted. Sure Calvin will give you more years but who knows if we will even be around 5 years from now ? Win now...win now...and win some more now.

 

Gates at 3.01 he is 31 years old. Man that is a tough call clearly the #1 TE right now but 31 years old. Very tough call on where he should go.

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You either trade down or take foster. Regardless of their longevity you will want to take a stud RB first however, because they are hard to find, they are what wins championship, and they get taken off the board in a hurry. With second pick you'll probably want to take a stud receiver who will be around for a while, unless there's another studly RB who has dropped to you. I would go with either wallace of calvin johnson, slightly favoring wallace for the nearer term (next 5 years or so), though calvin has the size for the longer term since the burst eventually fades. Or you could take a franchise QB like Freeman who is solid and only 23 years old.

Edited by Crazysight
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Is there a link to the way the draft results? Sorry didn't notice that it was over. WRs were taken too early in my opinion. Could have likely taken Foster at 1.1 and then traded him for Calvin plus something else if you weren't able to trade down. Runningbacks are usually off the board pretty fast, although it looks like the run on the receivers was pretty fast in this one.

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Is there a link to the way the draft results? Sorry didn't notice that it was over. WRs were taken too early in my opinion. Could have likely taken Foster at 1.1 and then traded him for Calvin plus something else if you weren't able to trade down. Runningbacks are usually off the board pretty fast, although it looks like the run on the receivers was pretty fast in this one.

 

 

Well, with only 1 RB required and 3 required WRs (plus one flex RB/WR), WRs do get a nice value bump in the setup. Not saying I would go WR #1 overall in the situation, but it makes the earlier run on WRs make a bit more sense.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Just to update, this is how I end up starting the season:

 

1 - Big Ben

1 - Redskins RB (Torain, Helu or Royster) I also have Bush, P. Thomas, J Harrison, Hightower, MaGahee & K Smith)

4 - Megtron, Dez, Steve Johnson and Percy Harvin

1 - Gates

1 - PK

2 - Jared Allen and either Dunlap, Pierre-Paul or Ray Edwards

3 - Bishop, Brackett, Tatupu or Joe Mays / Irving

3 - LaRon Landry, W. Moore & Godfrey

 

All and all its not a bad team IMO but who knows.

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  • 5 months later...
Just to update, this is how I end up starting the season:

 

1 - Big Ben

1 - Redskins RB (Torain, Helu or Royster) I also have Bush, P. Thomas, J Harrison, Hightower, MaGahee & K Smith)

4 - Megtron, Dez, Steve Johnson and Percy Harvin

1 - Gates

1 - PK

2 - Jared Allen and either Dunlap, Pierre-Paul or Ray Edwards

3 - Bishop, Brackett, Tatupu or Joe Mays / Irving

3 - LaRon Landry, W. Moore & Godfrey

 

All and all its not a bad team IMO but who knows.

 

 

For those that are interested I ended the season 11-3 and the #2 seed. I capped the season off with a 197.55 to 145.15. I got my season average and his team forgot to show up. :rofl:

 

My starting lineup for the Super Bowl was:

 

John Skelton (Big Ben and Kolb OUT)

Reggie Bush (9)

Willis MaGahee

Megatron (1)

Dez Bryant (19)

Victor Cruz (3) (picked up midway thru the season for a 2012 #2)

Antonio Gates (7)

Janikowski (6)

Jason Pierre-Paul (1)

Jared Allen (T2)

Desmond Bishop (13)

Perry Riley (FA pick up midway thru season)

Joe Mays (normally would play Ware but was afraid he may sit out) :tup:

A. Spievey

Reed Doughty

L. Webb

 

Normally I played a 1 RB and 4 WR set but decided on MaGahee in place of Percy Harvin (9) :lol:

 

( ) indicates where the player finished in their respective postion in our scoring system.

 

 

IT CAN BE DONE! :wacko:

Edited by Footballjoe
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I think you take A. Rogers he will be in the league the longest and put up the most points. It is a passing league these days so a good Rb is not sexy anymore the only last 3-5 years and are always hurt.

I would great a great QB great Wr's and one or two average rb's followed up by a great D

 

I pulled it down with

Fitzpatrick/Flacco

Matthews, ingram, P. Thomas, Hillis, J Stewart

Welker,Harvin,Nicks,Washington, T. Young, B. Llyod

Gronk, Olson

Akers

Bears D

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