12D3 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I wanted to get everyones thoughts on the players they feel could improve far past their draft position. Not just 12th round sleepers that may be somewhat relevant, but even a 3rd or 2nd round pick that might end up top at their position. As with any fantasy year the important picks are usually players not fully expected to break out. Last year everyone was touting Beanie Wells and Anquan Boldin as breakout stars while Arian Foster and Mike Williams were going in the 8-10th rounds. Finding the players no one expects to break out can really make your year. Here are some players I'm looking at in the draft. Steven Jackson - Consistently above 1k yards no matter what. With a better offense than he has had in years, I think he could start racking up the touchdowns he has been lacking the past few years and put up some serious numbers. Since he is getting a bit older, I have seen him fall as far as 30th pick in a 12 team draft. Seems like he could be end up being a steal even in early portion of the 2nd round. Ryan Matthews - While splitting carries with Tolbert, there were more than a few times last year where Tolbert looked terrible. During that time Matthews was still coming back from injury and couldn't fully cash in on these poor performances. This year I see him taking over the share of the carries as he gets more comfortable during the season. If Tolbert starts to falter and Matthews starts to deliver there will be a hard shift towards Matthews. I think towards mid season this guy can become the beast we thought he would become last year. I see him going in rounds 6-8 currently. Could end up being a top end RB2 if he breaks out. Chad Ochocinco - Still an incredibly talented receiver, he will become part of an amazing offense that could lean on him as their big play receiver. While he is getting older I can see him having a huge season and look like the player he was a few seasons ago. Tom Brady is the best QB he has ever had, and he could make life much easier for Chad. Going in the later rounds right now he could be a steal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawofmurphy Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Arain Foster? 8th round? His ADP was 2nd or 3rd round from what I recall. Here's the thing about the Ram offense... NY/A 31 - 30 ANY/A 30 - 28 Rush Yd 20 - 25 Rush TD 32 - 24(T) Rush YPC 11 - 31 Tot Yd 29 - 26 Tot Pt 32 - 26(T) The first number is the Rams 2009 ranking and the second number if their 2010 ranking. In other words, there was marginal overall improvement, but not some grand seismic shift. In fact, the rushing stats were down in yards/ypc. So...I like Jackson as a talent but that offense hasn't improved YET. Combine his age and the ypc numbers...I don't see SJax as a great value where he's currently being taken. I think Jamaal Charles should be the first back off the board. I don't care who else is there...anyone who averages 6.4 ypc in 240 carries gets to be first the next year. Period. I've stated my love of Blount before, but I'll restate he's a top 10 RB this year and he's being taken in the 3rd/4th rounds. I think DeAngelo Williams is a top 10 NFL talent being taken in the 5th round...he's a major risk due to injury, the presence of Stewart (who is probably not as talented, but still in the 10-15 range in that respect), and the team being putrid. But his ceiling is that of a good 2nd back this year. Colt McCoy being drafted behind Cam Newton, McNabb, and Mark Sanchez is kinda funny to me. Would love to have him as my primary backup. And I don't like any WR. ANY OF THEM. Hahah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
12D3 Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 Arian Fosters ADP was improved once the preseason began. Once he blew up against Dallas people started drafting him much higher. Before the preseason he was available in later rounds. As for the Rams offense. Their offense last season was better, but not great. They had a lot of injuries and a rookie QB (who still did quite well). Going into THIS year, I think they will be much much better. This years Rams should have a pretty decent offense. I agree on Charles, with more carries he could rack up record breaking yards numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 (edited) Romo should be a beast with those weapons and Felix Jones catching balls out of the backfield. In years past Barber saw the lions share of plays and he wasnt a great pass catcher. The boys OL was old and not mobile enough to set up many screens. We already see in practice and preseason how many more screens are being run. Romo is currently the 7th or 8th QB taken, and I think he ends up in the top 3. Who slips you might say. Well when New Orleans gets inside the 5, Ingram is going to get the rock more than Thomas did in years past, and some of those 5 yard TDs passes will be runs by the rookie. New England also addressed their running game selecting 2 RBs in the top 3 rounds of this past NFL draft. They didnt do that to pass every down. Vick is a beast for sure, but one of several things can happen to him this year. Expectations, Injury, and teams have more film on him and what he likes to do. I still think he runs too much. I think he will put too much pressure on himself to make a play because of the hype surrounding this team, he turns the ball over more this year thanlast year. And teams have more tape on this guy, so he wont be sneaking up on anyone this year. Its a copycat league, and once the formula is out to stop him, every team will try it. And finally, I dont think Peyton is healthy, and he could lose his ironman streak this year. Sure if anyone can pick up a ball and play with no practice its probably him. But I think teams will try and hit him more this year and see if he can hold up. So Romo is one of my top targets in the middle rounds And my top three are the 3 R's Rodgers Rivers Romo Edited August 17, 2011 by Brent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Mario Manningham. I think he has the potential to be a top 15 WR this yr. No Boss and no S Smith. He is a lock to start, and looked pretty solid when he filled in for Smith in the past. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Santana Moss is the old man people ignore until the later rounds. But he looked great in the first half the other night. 7 catches for 64 yards and a TD on 9 targets in less than half a preseason game. Cooly isnt healthy, and Moss is open on almost every play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DawgTalk Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 (edited) My players to watch this year... 1st RD Ray Rice- No TD vulture like past two years, Williams is not a goalline back, Rice runs it up to be number one back. 2nd RD Vincent Jackson- Being taken late second round, early 3rd round. He has the chance to be number one WR. 3rd RD Mike Wallace- Being taken around the early 3rd round. He too will see a breakout year and a top 5 WR finish 4th RD Wes Welker- He is being drafted in the 4th round. How do you not like an underneath runner that gets pass after pass after pass. He is a top 10 WR in PPR leagues. 5th RD DeAngelo Williams- No chance Stewart takes away from his production with the contract he just saw. I see a top 10 finish for him. 6th RD Owen Daniels- If you add up the TE stats from Daniels and Daniels replacement last year after the injury...you will get a combined TE that scored more than Gates... 7th RD Matthew Stafford- Injuried all the time, but when he plays, he PLAYS...just get a descent back up in case of injury... 8th RD Chad Ochocinco- Rejuvenate carrier with Pats? Moss did it... 9th RD Reggie Bush- great in PPR leagues for a 9th round RB... 10th RD Kevin Kolb- He has the arm strength to throw to Fitz, how do you not score? 11th RD Brandon Pettigrew- Explosive Offense, like his playmaking ability and great back up TE with tons of upside... Those are my 'GREAT' picks that outplay their draft selection...based on ADP rounds...take it to the bank...its money Other note worthy players...Matt Forte, Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Tim Hightower, Miek Tolbert, Shane Vereen, Delone Carter, Andre Roberts, Danny Amendola, and Jimmy Graham. Edited August 17, 2011 by DawgTalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deathpig Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Assuming they can stay at all healthy, the Lions are going to have real fantasy relevance this year. Stafford has looked very good when he actually plays, and Best was ridiculous before having two turf toe injuries. Pettigrew and Megatron will fare better if they have one QB over the course of the season instead of the normal three or four different ones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pip's Invitation Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Daniel Thomas. Everyone downgraded him when MIA signed Reggie Bush, while forgetting that Reggie Bush gets hurt EVERY year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Do Work Son Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I think Greg Olsen is gonna be a beast this year...You could tell both qbs felt pretty comfortable looking his way in the 1st preseason game and I think most people agree they'll be playing from behind in alot of games....which will equal more chances for Olsen to rack up some fantasy points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pip's Invitation Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re Wallace, he was like #6 among WR last year, so it's not really going out on a limb to say he'll be top 5 this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pope Flick Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 (edited) Although it's a crap team, the Raiders did have a bit of fantasy relevance last year and I think Jacoby Ford might be one of the fastest players in the NFL right now. I'm likingtop 40 #s from him by season's end and he'll likely go undrafted. Edited August 17, 2011 by Pope Flick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 5th RD DeAngelo Williams- No chance Stewart takes away from his production with the contract he just saw. I see a top 10 finish for him. No issue with Williams outperforming his ADP, but I think you're off by justifying it with the contract he just got. The Panthers were massively below the cap floor, and this was another step to get to that number. I've also read that Jerry Richardson was making good on a promise that he made Williams two years ago with this contract. I wouldn't let his contract numbers come into play at all. I'll buy that he may outperform Stewart because of the yardage and receptions. I still have Stewart getting a hefty workload and more TD's. Stewart isn't going away, and Carolina is going to run a TON in a full on RBBC. They'll both get nice numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Daniel Thomas. Everyone downgraded him when MIA signed Reggie Bush, while forgetting that Reggie Bush gets hurt EVERY year. What about those that downgraded him because he looks like his feet are cement blocks? Bush is always hurt, but Thomas will always be meh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 (edited) No issue with Williams outperforming his ADP, but I think you're off by justifying it with the contract he just got. The Panthers were massively below the cap floor, and this was another step to get to that number. I've also read that Jerry Richardson was making good on a promise that he made Williams two years ago with this contract. I wouldn't let his contract numbers come into play at all. I'll buy that he may outperform Stewart because of the yardage and receptions. I still have Stewart getting a hefty workload and more TD's. Stewart isn't going away, and Carolina is going to run a TON in a full on RBBC. They'll both get nice numbers. There is NO floor this year...the floor starts in 2013 Edited August 17, 2011 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 There is NO floor this year...the floor starts in 2013 Just checked, and I'm reading that 2011 has a 108 million dollar floor with a 121 ceiling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 There is NO floor this year...the floor starts in 2013 Just checked, and I'm reading that 2011 has a 108 million dollar floor with a 121 ceiling. Technically no floor by team, but combined, 32 teams must be at 99%. So neither of us are wrong. Although I stick by my statement that the Panthers had to get closer to the ceiling per the 99% rule. Andrew Brandt from PFT In evaluating the new CBA and determining the “winners and losers” that we love to do, many -- including this writer -- evaluated the cash minimum spending requirements of the NFL and its teams to be important “wins” for the Players. I thought the key for the Players was to require the under-spending teams to spend up to higher floors, making the league more competitive and the players more evenly compensated. Looking further into the details, I still think it’s a “win” for the Players, but not to the extent I had originally thought. Here’s the rub: there are no team spending requirements in this CBA until 2013! There are league spending requirements, which is definitely a good thing for player spending, but it does not have the teeth relative to an individual team spending requirement. The league spending requirement for 2011 and 2012 mandates that league wide cash spending reach 99% of the Cap, or approximately $3.8 billion of player spending. As shown above, teams can routinely spend more cash than Cap, with teams like the Panthers and Colts spending $30 million each on one player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Technically no floor by team, but combined, 32 teams must be at 99%. So neither of us are wrong. Although I stick by my statement that the Panthers had to get closer to the ceiling per the 99% rule. Andrew Brandt from PFT In evaluating the new CBA and determining the “winners and losers” that we love to do, many -- including this writer -- evaluated the cash minimum spending requirements of the NFL and its teams to be important “wins” for the Players. I thought the key for the Players was to require the under-spending teams to spend up to higher floors, making the league more competitive and the players more evenly compensated. Looking further into the details, I still think it’s a “win” for the Players, but not to the extent I had originally thought. Here’s the rub: there are no team spending requirements in this CBA until 2013! There are league spending requirements, which is definitely a good thing for player spending, but it does not have the teeth relative to an individual team spending requirement. The league spending requirement for 2011 and 2012 mandates that league wide cash spending reach 99% of the Cap, or approximately $3.8 billion of player spending. As shown above, teams can routinely spend more cash than Cap, with teams like the Panthers and Colts spending $30 million each on one player. http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?s=&a...t&p=3478598 Was in process of posting this prior to your edit, which i haven't read yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DawgTalk Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re Wallace, he was like #6 among WR last year, so it's not really going out on a limb to say he'll be top 5 this year. Well, its not going on a limb per say, but when you draft him in the 3rd round (ADP 25.1), its saying that he is a steal at that position. Dont take things out of context. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Dont take things out of context. I know you've been around since 2004, but... Welcome to the huddle message boards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Just checked, and I'm reading that 2011 has a 108 million dollar floor with a 121 ceiling. Link to the official CBA for 2011-2020 What you added can be found in the CBA but figured you might like to take a look at the actual document...just do a search for salary cap or whatever because it is a 316 page document Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?s=&a...t&p=3478598 Was in process of posting this prior to your edit, which i haven't read yet Basically I read it as individual teams may not have a floor, the collective 32 teams do. And the other 31 are well aware that Mike Brown runs the Bengals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DawgTalk Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I know you've been around since 2004, but... Welcome to the huddle message boards. Touche. Good point. I just like to point out stupidity and people that like to say things to not add value but to just say something... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazysight Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 "Steven Jackson - Consistently above 1k yards no matter what. With a better offense than he has had in years," You do realize that he's in Josh McDaniel's system this year don't you? He is not known for running the ball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 "Steven Jackson - Consistently above 1k yards no matter what. With a better offense than he has had in years," You do realize that he's in Josh McDaniel's system this year don't you? He is not known for running the ball. but McDope isn't the HC, he is the OC...Spags isn't going to let the talents of SJax waste away...plus SJax is a damn fine receiver too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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