OK I think I can get AP but man o man

[Cowboyz1]

I think AP is an outstanding runner. BUT, any defense at all can stop the run if there isn't a QB that scares them even a little bit. Donovan I have no confidence in at all. He just makes to many bad throws for me. He also has lost his ability to escape the pass rush which is what allowed him to be more dangerous and buy more time so he didn't have to be as accurate. Ponder starts at some point this season but he is a rookie.

 

 

Here in lies my delema. I just want to stamp AP as undraftable as a stud but he's AP. Perhaps the best pure Back in a one back system we have left.

 

What do you guys think?

[keggerz]

I think McNabb is going to surprise a lot of people this year...I don't mean pro-bowl like surprise but still surprise in a good way....AP will be fine

[Brentastic]

I am so confused by this post. You love him but don't want to draft him. He's the only pure stud RB in the game. And I still don't understand your dilema.

 

AP is going to have his best year to date this season, barrin injury of course. Bank it.

[Pip's Invitation]

AP did just fine when Tarvaris Jackson was under center. McNabb won't be any worse than that.

[Bronco Billy]

I think you're nuts

 

If he isn't drafted in the first two picks, he dropped too far

[Double Agent]

I think McNabb is going to surprise a lot of people this year...I don't mean pro-bowl like surprise but still surprise in a good way....AP will be fine

 

AD will be fine. But McNabb is done. I'm guessing he can manage the game and nothing more. Teams will still stack the box against AD because no one is afraid of McNabb. He lost his job in Washington. That's impossible.

[tazinib1]

I think you're nuts

 

If he isn't drafted in the first two picks, he dropped too far

 

 

+1

[i_am_the_swammi]

AP did just fine when Tarvaris Jackson was under center. McNabb won't be any worse than that.

 

This....

 

I think you're nuts. If he isn't drafted in the first two picks, he dropped too far

 

....and this.

[Cowboyz1]

Well Obviously I'm not the only nut case. Im in a huddle league here and he hasn't been drafted yet and were at PICK 6!

[Brentastic]

AP is the only sure-thing at RB this year, imo. I'm astonished that his ADP is 1.4 in the IBL league I'm in. To still be available at 1.6 is just moranic.

[Cowboyz1]

AP is the only sure-thing at RB this year, imo. I'm astonished that his ADP is 1.4 in the IBL league I'm in. To still be available at 1.6 is just moranic.

 

 

He just went at 1.6. I just got a feeling that hes going to be top 15 but not top 5. I want top 5 in my 1st pick at any position. We'll see. I have just seen to many teams load up on stopping the run with Mcnabb and force him in 3rd and long where he inevitably throws a pick or into the ground.

 

Secondly, with Rice gone, Harvin, Berrian, Jenkins, Lewis and Aromashodu don't scare me one little bit. Which means those errant passes are not going to be caught much. Reminds me of the Philly teams with no name WR's like PInkston, Lewis, and I can't even remember the other guys names before D Jax. AP is gonna have to carry the load but still, Det has a great line, GB has a great line and linebackers, and Chicago has a stout line. That's SIX games that Mcnabb will struggle to find open recievers and AP will be running into 8 man fronts with REALLY good front 7 players.

 

I can see them playing from behind A LOT which means more passes from Mcnabb, which means more INT's, which means less opportunitys for Vikings O, which means less running for AP. In comes Ponder, which means less of a passing game, which means 8 man fronts turn to 10 man fronts, which means even less running room for AP.

 

Adds up to not a lot of success to me.

 

Just sayin.............

Edited August 18, 2011 by Cowboyz1

[OCSkins]

Cowboyz1......I totally understand and (somewhat) agree with your analysis. So who is worthy of being picked ahead of AP? I've got the #1 pick in one league and the #2 pick in another league, and as far as I can tell, AP is the "safest" guy to choose. But like you, and as a Skins fan who's been down the McNabb road, I'm worried that the loss of Favre and Rice and LT McKinnie might be too much.

 

Arian's only had 1 good year, and the CJ holdout worries me. Of these 3, AP seems to be the "safest" bet. But questions and unknown variables surround all those guys.

 

Can I realistically take Ray Rice over them? I'm vexed!

[Bronco Billy]

I think that if htis thread is any indicator of the general consensus in FF this year, people are going to steal AD in drafts, and McNabb is going to surprise more than a few people.

 

McNabb is exactly one - count 'em, one - year removed from averging 245 yds passing, 60.7% compl, 1.52 TDs/gm, and 0.64 INTs/game over the previous 3 years.

 

In a 16 game season, that's putting up 3900 yds, 24 TDs, and 10 INTs.

 

He clearly did not fit Kyle Shanahan's system - and Mike's son looked like the neophyte he is at running an O - and did not get along with either Shanahan. The WAS O looked terrible last year, and despite that still managed to be a top 10 team in passing yds - with some pretty weak receivers.

 

I'm not saying McNabb is going to put up Reid/PHI type passing numbers, but I also think he's being shoveled over way too early. I really, really like him as a solid QB2 with some upside in FF - especially given the running game he'll have (which he clearly did not have last year). Peterson & McNabb ought to complement each other well, and I'm guessing they'll both have good years.

[MTSuper7]

Offensive line is a bigger concern than McNabb IMO. Peterson still managed a solid year last year with an over the hill Favre, TJax, Webb, etc. at QB. Still, AP seems to have the lowest floor of any RB out there with maybe Foster as an exception. He has no competition for carries, and appears to be in line for more 3rd down work. Plus, the guy is as talented as they come. I could see Foster going first, and maybe Ray Rice in a PPR now that his competition for carries seems to have disappeared. Chris Johnson's holdout is real, Jamaal Charles will be splitting carries again, etc. - there just isn't a way to justify AP past 1.3 IMO.

[rattsass]

Lots of love for AP here. Yeah, he as finished a top 10 RB every season, but only in the top 4 once. I'm talking PPR here, he probably fared better in other formats. I drafted #2 in a PPR draft this week and I didn't even consider Peterson. He ended up going 4th. Not exactly a "steal" for a guy that has only cracked the top 4 at the position once. Fair value? Probably. A steal? Unlilkely.

[Bronco Billy]

Lots of love for AP here. Yeah, he as finished a top 10 RB every season, but only in the top 4 once. I'm talking PPR here, he probably fared better in other formats. I drafted #2 in a PPR draft this week and I didn't even consider Peterson. He ended up going 4th. Not exactly a "steal" for a guy that has only cracked the top 4 at the position once. Fair value? Probably. A steal? Unlilkely.

 

What are you talking about? Peterson has been in the top 5 in ppr every year he has been in the league. What other player in the league can you make that claim about? I'll answer for you - not a single one.

 

Who is a better bet to finish in the top 5 (and not lose your league for you with a top 3 pick) than Peterson is?

 

FF Scoring - top 10 RBs (ppr) since 2006 {Peterson entered the league in 2007}

NAME	YEAR	RSHYD	RSHYD	RSHTD	RECYD	RECYD	RECTD	FFPTS(ppr)

LaDainian Tomlinson	2006	332	1745	28	54	494	3	418.9
Larry Johnson	2006	384	1653	14	36	388	2	300.1
Steven Jackson	2006	321	1386	10	89	788	2	289.4
Brian Westbrook	2006	239	1214	7	76	671	4	254.5
Frank Gore	2006	281	1543	8	59	453	1	253.6
Willie Parker	2006	300	1361	11	28	210	3	241.1
Rudi Johnson	2006	328	1263	12	22	121	0	210.4
Tiki Barber	2006	305	1441	2	56	441	0	200.2
Deuce McAllister	2006	244	1054	10	30	198	0	185.2
Joseph Addai	2006	207	1017	7	37	296	1	179.3


LaDainian Tomlinson	2007	299	1418	15	59	468	2	295.45
Brian Westbrook	2007	271	1291	7	86	714	5	272.5
**Adrian Peterson	2007	227	1304	12	19	268	1	235.2
Joseph Addai	2007	257	1045	12	40	355	3	230
Clinton Portis	2007	299	1159	9	43	362	0	210.85
Jamal Lewis	2007	272	1170	9	29	247	2	207.7
Marion Barber	2007	195	979	10	43	275	2	197.4
Willis McGahee	2007	294	1207	7	43	231	1	191.8
Earnest Graham	2007	222	898	10	49	324	0	182.2
Frank Gore	2007	237	1008	5	51	415	1	178.3


DeAngelo Williams	2008	249	1340	18	22	121	2	266.1
Michael Turner	2008	351	1490	16	6	41	0	249.1
Thomas Jones	2008	280	1289	13	35	206	2	239.5
Matt Forte	2008	301	1179	8	61	459	4	235.8
**Adrian Peterson	2008	343	1655	9	21	125	0	232
Brian Westbrook	2008	220	886	9	52	390	5	211.6
Clinton Portis	2008	313	1407	8	28	218	0	210.5
Chris Johnson	2008	251	1228	9	43	260	1	208.8
Maurice Jones-Drew	2008	173	745	11	61	558	2	208.3
Steve Slaton	2008	248	1190	8	45	341	1	207.1


Chris Johnson	2009	321	1873	12	47	483	2	319.6
**Adrian Peterson	2009	305	1332	17	42	435	0	278.7
Maurice Jones-Drew	2009	295	1305	15	52	368	1	263.3
Ray Rice	2009	240	1268	7	74	683	1	243.1
Ricky Williams	2009	227	1089	11	32	260	2	211.9
Frank Gore	2009	206	1013	8	50	381	3	205.4
Thomas Jones	2009	304	1321	11	10	58	0	203.9
Ryan Grant	2009	270	1203	10	25	198	0	200.1
Joseph Addai	2009	219	828	10	51	336	3	199.5
Steven Jackson	2009	305	1358	4	50	314	0	191.2


Arian Foster	2010	295	1434	14	64	594	2	298.8
Peyton Hillis	2010	263	1161	11	60	478	2	242.55
**Adrian Peterson	2010	268	1262	12	34	343	1	238.5
Jamaal Charles	2010	213	1365	4	43	455	3	224
Darren McFadden	2010	219	1117	7	47	507	3	222.4
LeSean McCoy	2010	205	1073	7	78	582	2	219.5
Chris Johnson	2010	294	1323	11	38	194	0	217.7
Maurice Jones-Drew	2010	299	1320	5	34	317	2	204.7
Michael Turner	2010	316	1300	11	12	85	0	204.5
Rashard Mendenhall	2010	306	1225	11	21	137	0	202.2

Edited August 18, 2011 by Bronco Billy

[Cowboyz1]

Cowboyz1......I totally understand and (somewhat) agree with your analysis. So who is worthy of being picked ahead of AP? I've got the #1 pick in one league and the #2 pick in another league, and as far as I can tell, AP is the "safest" guy to choose. But like you, and as a Skins fan who's been down the McNabb road, I'm worried that the loss of Favre and Rice and LT McKinnie might be too much.

 

Arian's only had 1 good year, and the CJ holdout worries me. Of these 3, AP seems to be the "safest" bet. But questions and unknown variables surround all those guys.

 

Can I realistically take Ray Rice over them? I'm vexed!

 

 

To me it's CJ and Arian Foster as 1 2. Why because CJ is going to get paid and Tenn is not going to have him holding out of the start of the season. CJ knows he doesn't need to go throught he grind of TC if he doesn't want to. Obviously he doesn't want to. However, that worries me a bit cause that's how you get hammy issues. No offseason camps either. Foster is the real deal and he is a workhorse.

 

I know you can't ignore AP but I just have a gut feeling this year that there are going to be backs in the 6, 7,8th and later rounds that are going to emerge as top backs. I feel a changing of the guard is in the works this year.

Edited August 18, 2011 by Cowboyz1

[bpwallace49]

QB isnt the worry to me . . . the offensive line is a concern for me. But not enough to not have him as a top 2 RB.

[Double Agent]

To me it's CJ and Arian Foster as 1 2. Why because CJ is going to get paid and Tenn is not going to have him holding out of the start of the season.

 

I said that about VJax last year and it cost me. CJ was on my do not draft list.

[Cowboyz1]

I said that about VJax last year and it cost me. CJ was on my do not draft list.

 

 

VJax they could manage without because although they needed him they had other options. In Tenn, CJ IS their Offense. They will not let him sit.

[Seahawks21]

All Day could play with Fran Tarkenton right now and would still finish in the top-5. He's that special.

 

When Minnesota gets down 14, they will run more often than any other team that is down 14. Because of the style of play, I'd think they can keep games closer than most not great teams. You can make a pretty solid case for Foster above him, but anything other than that can't really be explained statistically. If you have a hunch, sure, but I'm not sure it is going to be easy to prove your case.

[Pip's Invitation]

Can I realistically take Ray Rice over them? I'm vexed!

 

In PPR, yes. In non-PPR, I would still take AP and Foster 1-2 in some order.

[buddahj]

I think you're nuts

 

If he isn't drafted in the first two picks, he dropped too far

agree

[bostonsoxandy]

VJax they could manage without because although they needed him they had other options. In Tenn, CJ IS their Offense. They will not let him sit.

 

 

If the price is becoming one the highest paid players in the NFL, being paid like a Pro-Bowl QB, do you think Tenn dishes out that kind of money for CJ? I don't think they are even close to a playoff team this year with or without CJ, so why do they need to sign him before the season starts? I think CJ will crack first if they hardball him, he will realize it isn't that bad to be the best payed RB in the NFL.

[rattsass]

What are you talking about? Peterson has been in the top 5 in ppr every year he has been in the league. What other player in the league can you make that claim about? I'll answer for you - not a single one.

 

Who is a better bet to finish in the top 5 (and not lose your league for you with a top 3 pick) than Peterson is?

 

I was going off my dynasty PPR scoring which I think is pretty standard and there Peterson placed 5th last year. 2nd in '09. 7th in '08, and 4th in 07

his rookie season.

 

Okay, yes. I agree, if you want to play it safe he is a fine pick. But every season there is at least one "pass catching" back that blows him away. I want that guy. I'm not bashing Peterson at all. But I stand by my statement that he is not some kind of screaming value at 5 or 6. That is where he should appropriately be drafted. Just an opinion based on my own scoring rules which apparently differ from yours somewhat. I'll take Foster, Rice, McCoy, or CJ over him in a heartbeat.