Cowboyz1 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I think AP is an outstanding runner. BUT, any defense at all can stop the run if there isn't a QB that scares them even a little bit. Donovan I have no confidence in at all. He just makes to many bad throws for me. He also has lost his ability to escape the pass rush which is what allowed him to be more dangerous and buy more time so he didn't have to be as accurate. Ponder starts at some point this season but he is a rookie. Here in lies my delema. I just want to stamp AP as undraftable as a stud but he's AP. Perhaps the best pure Back in a one back system we have left. What do you guys think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I think McNabb is going to surprise a lot of people this year...I don't mean pro-bowl like surprise but still surprise in a good way....AP will be fine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I am so confused by this post. You love him but don't want to draft him. He's the only pure stud RB in the game. And I still don't understand your dilema. AP is going to have his best year to date this season, barrin injury of course. Bank it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pip's Invitation Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 AP did just fine when Tarvaris Jackson was under center. McNabb won't be any worse than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I think you're nuts If he isn't drafted in the first two picks, he dropped too far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Agent Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I think McNabb is going to surprise a lot of people this year...I don't mean pro-bowl like surprise but still surprise in a good way....AP will be fine AD will be fine. But McNabb is done. I'm guessing he can manage the game and nothing more. Teams will still stack the box against AD because no one is afraid of McNabb. He lost his job in Washington. That's impossible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I think you're nuts If he isn't drafted in the first two picks, he dropped too far +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 AP did just fine when Tarvaris Jackson was under center. McNabb won't be any worse than that. This.... I think you're nuts. If he isn't drafted in the first two picks, he dropped too far ....and this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboyz1 Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 Well Obviously I'm not the only nut case. Im in a huddle league here and he hasn't been drafted yet and were at PICK 6! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 AP is the only sure-thing at RB this year, imo. I'm astonished that his ADP is 1.4 in the IBL league I'm in. To still be available at 1.6 is just moranic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboyz1 Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 (edited) AP is the only sure-thing at RB this year, imo. I'm astonished that his ADP is 1.4 in the IBL league I'm in. To still be available at 1.6 is just moranic. He just went at 1.6. I just got a feeling that hes going to be top 15 but not top 5. I want top 5 in my 1st pick at any position. We'll see. I have just seen to many teams load up on stopping the run with Mcnabb and force him in 3rd and long where he inevitably throws a pick or into the ground. Secondly, with Rice gone, Harvin, Berrian, Jenkins, Lewis and Aromashodu don't scare me one little bit. Which means those errant passes are not going to be caught much. Reminds me of the Philly teams with no name WR's like PInkston, Lewis, and I can't even remember the other guys names before D Jax. AP is gonna have to carry the load but still, Det has a great line, GB has a great line and linebackers, and Chicago has a stout line. That's SIX games that Mcnabb will struggle to find open recievers and AP will be running into 8 man fronts with REALLY good front 7 players. I can see them playing from behind A LOT which means more passes from Mcnabb, which means more INT's, which means less opportunitys for Vikings O, which means less running for AP. In comes Ponder, which means less of a passing game, which means 8 man fronts turn to 10 man fronts, which means even less running room for AP. Adds up to not a lot of success to me. Just sayin............. Edited August 18, 2011 by Cowboyz1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCSkins Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Cowboyz1......I totally understand and (somewhat) agree with your analysis. So who is worthy of being picked ahead of AP? I've got the #1 pick in one league and the #2 pick in another league, and as far as I can tell, AP is the "safest" guy to choose. But like you, and as a Skins fan who's been down the McNabb road, I'm worried that the loss of Favre and Rice and LT McKinnie might be too much. Arian's only had 1 good year, and the CJ holdout worries me. Of these 3, AP seems to be the "safest" bet. But questions and unknown variables surround all those guys. Can I realistically take Ray Rice over them? I'm vexed! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I think that if htis thread is any indicator of the general consensus in FF this year, people are going to steal AD in drafts, and McNabb is going to surprise more than a few people. McNabb is exactly one - count 'em, one - year removed from averging 245 yds passing, 60.7% compl, 1.52 TDs/gm, and 0.64 INTs/game over the previous 3 years. In a 16 game season, that's putting up 3900 yds, 24 TDs, and 10 INTs. He clearly did not fit Kyle Shanahan's system - and Mike's son looked like the neophyte he is at running an O - and did not get along with either Shanahan. The WAS O looked terrible last year, and despite that still managed to be a top 10 team in passing yds - with some pretty weak receivers. I'm not saying McNabb is going to put up Reid/PHI type passing numbers, but I also think he's being shoveled over way too early. I really, really like him as a solid QB2 with some upside in FF - especially given the running game he'll have (which he clearly did not have last year). Peterson & McNabb ought to complement each other well, and I'm guessing they'll both have good years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Offensive line is a bigger concern than McNabb IMO. Peterson still managed a solid year last year with an over the hill Favre, TJax, Webb, etc. at QB. Still, AP seems to have the lowest floor of any RB out there with maybe Foster as an exception. He has no competition for carries, and appears to be in line for more 3rd down work. Plus, the guy is as talented as they come. I could see Foster going first, and maybe Ray Rice in a PPR now that his competition for carries seems to have disappeared. Chris Johnson's holdout is real, Jamaal Charles will be splitting carries again, etc. - there just isn't a way to justify AP past 1.3 IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Lots of love for AP here. Yeah, he as finished a top 10 RB every season, but only in the top 4 once. I'm talking PPR here, he probably fared better in other formats. I drafted #2 in a PPR draft this week and I didn't even consider Peterson. He ended up going 4th. Not exactly a "steal" for a guy that has only cracked the top 4 at the position once. Fair value? Probably. A steal? Unlilkely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 (edited) Lots of love for AP here. Yeah, he as finished a top 10 RB every season, but only in the top 4 once. I'm talking PPR here, he probably fared better in other formats. I drafted #2 in a PPR draft this week and I didn't even consider Peterson. He ended up going 4th. Not exactly a "steal" for a guy that has only cracked the top 4 at the position once. Fair value? Probably. A steal? Unlilkely. What are you talking about? Peterson has been in the top 5 in ppr every year he has been in the league. What other player in the league can you make that claim about? I'll answer for you - not a single one. Who is a better bet to finish in the top 5 (and not lose your league for you with a top 3 pick) than Peterson is? FF Scoring - top 10 RBs (ppr) since 2006 {Peterson entered the league in 2007} NAME YEAR RSHYD RSHYD RSHTD RECYD RECYD RECTD FFPTS(ppr) LaDainian Tomlinson 2006 332 1745 28 54 494 3 418.9 Larry Johnson 2006 384 1653 14 36 388 2 300.1 Steven Jackson 2006 321 1386 10 89 788 2 289.4 Brian Westbrook 2006 239 1214 7 76 671 4 254.5 Frank Gore 2006 281 1543 8 59 453 1 253.6 Willie Parker 2006 300 1361 11 28 210 3 241.1 Rudi Johnson 2006 328 1263 12 22 121 0 210.4 Tiki Barber 2006 305 1441 2 56 441 0 200.2 Deuce McAllister 2006 244 1054 10 30 198 0 185.2 Joseph Addai 2006 207 1017 7 37 296 1 179.3 LaDainian Tomlinson 2007 299 1418 15 59 468 2 295.45 Brian Westbrook 2007 271 1291 7 86 714 5 272.5 **Adrian Peterson 2007 227 1304 12 19 268 1 235.2 Joseph Addai 2007 257 1045 12 40 355 3 230 Clinton Portis 2007 299 1159 9 43 362 0 210.85 Jamal Lewis 2007 272 1170 9 29 247 2 207.7 Marion Barber 2007 195 979 10 43 275 2 197.4 Willis McGahee 2007 294 1207 7 43 231 1 191.8 Earnest Graham 2007 222 898 10 49 324 0 182.2 Frank Gore 2007 237 1008 5 51 415 1 178.3 DeAngelo Williams 2008 249 1340 18 22 121 2 266.1 Michael Turner 2008 351 1490 16 6 41 0 249.1 Thomas Jones 2008 280 1289 13 35 206 2 239.5 Matt Forte 2008 301 1179 8 61 459 4 235.8 **Adrian Peterson 2008 343 1655 9 21 125 0 232 Brian Westbrook 2008 220 886 9 52 390 5 211.6 Clinton Portis 2008 313 1407 8 28 218 0 210.5 Chris Johnson 2008 251 1228 9 43 260 1 208.8 Maurice Jones-Drew 2008 173 745 11 61 558 2 208.3 Steve Slaton 2008 248 1190 8 45 341 1 207.1 Chris Johnson 2009 321 1873 12 47 483 2 319.6 **Adrian Peterson 2009 305 1332 17 42 435 0 278.7 Maurice Jones-Drew 2009 295 1305 15 52 368 1 263.3 Ray Rice 2009 240 1268 7 74 683 1 243.1 Ricky Williams 2009 227 1089 11 32 260 2 211.9 Frank Gore 2009 206 1013 8 50 381 3 205.4 Thomas Jones 2009 304 1321 11 10 58 0 203.9 Ryan Grant 2009 270 1203 10 25 198 0 200.1 Joseph Addai 2009 219 828 10 51 336 3 199.5 Steven Jackson 2009 305 1358 4 50 314 0 191.2 Arian Foster 2010 295 1434 14 64 594 2 298.8 Peyton Hillis 2010 263 1161 11 60 478 2 242.55 **Adrian Peterson 2010 268 1262 12 34 343 1 238.5 Jamaal Charles 2010 213 1365 4 43 455 3 224 Darren McFadden 2010 219 1117 7 47 507 3 222.4 LeSean McCoy 2010 205 1073 7 78 582 2 219.5 Chris Johnson 2010 294 1323 11 38 194 0 217.7 Maurice Jones-Drew 2010 299 1320 5 34 317 2 204.7 Michael Turner 2010 316 1300 11 12 85 0 204.5 Rashard Mendenhall 2010 306 1225 11 21 137 0 202.2 Edited August 18, 2011 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboyz1 Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 (edited) Cowboyz1......I totally understand and (somewhat) agree with your analysis. So who is worthy of being picked ahead of AP? I've got the #1 pick in one league and the #2 pick in another league, and as far as I can tell, AP is the "safest" guy to choose. But like you, and as a Skins fan who's been down the McNabb road, I'm worried that the loss of Favre and Rice and LT McKinnie might be too much. Arian's only had 1 good year, and the CJ holdout worries me. Of these 3, AP seems to be the "safest" bet. But questions and unknown variables surround all those guys. Can I realistically take Ray Rice over them? I'm vexed! To me it's CJ and Arian Foster as 1 2. Why because CJ is going to get paid and Tenn is not going to have him holding out of the start of the season. CJ knows he doesn't need to go throught he grind of TC if he doesn't want to. Obviously he doesn't want to. However, that worries me a bit cause that's how you get hammy issues. No offseason camps either. Foster is the real deal and he is a workhorse. I know you can't ignore AP but I just have a gut feeling this year that there are going to be backs in the 6, 7,8th and later rounds that are going to emerge as top backs. I feel a changing of the guard is in the works this year. Edited August 18, 2011 by Cowboyz1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpwallace49 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 QB isnt the worry to me . . . the offensive line is a concern for me. But not enough to not have him as a top 2 RB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Agent Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 To me it's CJ and Arian Foster as 1 2. Why because CJ is going to get paid and Tenn is not going to have him holding out of the start of the season. I said that about VJax last year and it cost me. CJ was on my do not draft list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboyz1 Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 I said that about VJax last year and it cost me. CJ was on my do not draft list. VJax they could manage without because although they needed him they had other options. In Tenn, CJ IS their Offense. They will not let him sit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 All Day could play with Fran Tarkenton right now and would still finish in the top-5. He's that special. When Minnesota gets down 14, they will run more often than any other team that is down 14. Because of the style of play, I'd think they can keep games closer than most not great teams. You can make a pretty solid case for Foster above him, but anything other than that can't really be explained statistically. If you have a hunch, sure, but I'm not sure it is going to be easy to prove your case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pip's Invitation Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Can I realistically take Ray Rice over them? I'm vexed! In PPR, yes. In non-PPR, I would still take AP and Foster 1-2 in some order. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddahj Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I think you're nuts If he isn't drafted in the first two picks, he dropped too far agree Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bostonsoxandy Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 VJax they could manage without because although they needed him they had other options. In Tenn, CJ IS their Offense. They will not let him sit. If the price is becoming one the highest paid players in the NFL, being paid like a Pro-Bowl QB, do you think Tenn dishes out that kind of money for CJ? I don't think they are even close to a playoff team this year with or without CJ, so why do they need to sign him before the season starts? I think CJ will crack first if they hardball him, he will realize it isn't that bad to be the best payed RB in the NFL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 What are you talking about? Peterson has been in the top 5 in ppr every year he has been in the league. What other player in the league can you make that claim about? I'll answer for you - not a single one. Who is a better bet to finish in the top 5 (and not lose your league for you with a top 3 pick) than Peterson is? I was going off my dynasty PPR scoring which I think is pretty standard and there Peterson placed 5th last year. 2nd in '09. 7th in '08, and 4th in 07 his rookie season. Okay, yes. I agree, if you want to play it safe he is a fine pick. But every season there is at least one "pass catching" back that blows him away. I want that guy. I'm not bashing Peterson at all. But I stand by my statement that he is not some kind of screaming value at 5 or 6. That is where he should appropriately be drafted. Just an opinion based on my own scoring rules which apparently differ from yours somewhat. I'll take Foster, Rice, McCoy, or CJ over him in a heartbeat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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