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The Huddle vs "other sites"


detlef
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This is not about figuring out why The Huddle has this guy ranked #25 overall and the other guys have him top 10 or why the Huddle this other guy #30 and the other guys have him outside the top 50. That's all a matter of how they see someone's chances. And, at the end of the day, The Huddle is going to get some right and get some wrong and so are the "other guys".

 

My curiosity has to do with a more systemic discrepancy. If you look at auction values and do a few auctions, you'll notice a big difference. Not between the suggested auction values of this guy or that guy, but with the overall curve. According to the Huddle, you should be paying significantly more for the studs and considerably less for the Jahvid Best's of the world. Not simply this player or that player but this tier vs that tier. And this is not simply based on what guys are bidding in mock drafts, but what the suggested values ESPN, etc is throwing out as a guideline in those drafts. Is this intentional? Is this prescribing a general strategy of making your team top-heavy in auction drafts?

 

And, to be honest, even without looking beyond the Huddle's own rankings, the auction values seem a bit curious. For instance, one would assume that, within a tier, the spread from the top player to the bottom wouldn't be dramatic. Yet in a 12 team auction with a $200 cap, the highest valued WR in tier 2 is worth $40 and the lowest is worth $12. That's a rather dramatic spread if we're to assume the definition of tiers is such that there's a bigger drop-off from one tier to the next than there is within the tier itself. I mean, that is a safe assumption, is it not? Yet, QB seems to follow this odd relation between values. The last QB in tier 1 has the same estimated value in an auction as the first in tier 2. Same with the last in tier 2 and the first in tier 3. How is that? Again, should we not imply that the Huddle values the last guy in tier 1 a good piece more than it does the first guy in tier 2 and that is why they made the cut-off where they did?

 

Just curious who is doing the auction values sheet and what their rationale is.

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The auction values are culled from real auctions in terms of what positions and top players are worth. They can never be anything more than a rough guideline given that any player could go for far more or less money. But they are based on real auctions.

 

Some auctions have top players go for really high and then literally after the top 50 players or so it is all $1. Others are far more "budget" conscious.

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I'm curious to see a response as well. All I can think is that the dollar value is more of a perceived value and the tiers are there to help you know where the value picks lie. I mean, it's hard to imagine that a $40 player would be expected to perform similarly to a $12 player. Then again, putting my own values together, I could see myself having players ranked similarly with that big of a disparity in dollar values. All it would tell me is that the $40 guy is overvalued generally and that the $12 is going under the radar. Still, the disparity is larger than I'd expect for a tier, so I'll check back to see what comes of this thread...

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The auction values are culled from real auctions in terms of what positions and top players are worth. They can never be anything more than a rough guideline given that any player could go for far more or less money. But they are based on real auctions.

 

Some auctions have top players go for really high and then literally after the top 50 players or so it is all $1. Others are far more "budget" conscious.

How often is it updated?

 

In your opinion, are the values being assigned to players as guidelines in those on-line mocks also a floating value based on what guys are going for or do you think it's the opinion of experts on the site. Say an ESPN mock for instance.

 

None the less, no top-notch RB or WR goes for near what they're supposed according to the Huddle in any of these mocks I've done. The highest RBs top out right around 60 rather than the 80 the Huddle has them going at. The top WRs are going for 40 rather than 50+ and the guys like Reggie Wayne and Greg Jennings are going for 30+ rather than the mid 20s the Huddle has them at. So, what auctions are you basing your data on?

 

ETA: Out of curiosity, why do you base your auction evaluations on data from real drafts? You don't use ADP to create your other cheat sheets. I would think that a cheat sheet generated by you would be what you think players should go for, not what the market as a whole is determining. Further, and with all due respect, are you truly finding data from real auctions that just happens to be nearly 100% consistent with your specific player rankings? Because that's what's going on. At least in terms of the order of how much guys should go for, even if the drop-offs don't fit the tiers.

Edited by detlef
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You know, I've never thought about this, because I do not do any auction draft leagues, just auction free agents. But if your looking for dollar value price player lists, how do those list compare and contract to the reagion that you live in?

 

As in my 12pk of Lite runs $10 here in dallas. Where as in New York and Cali can be twice as much.

 

When your playing local leagues, using a standarized player price list, do you have to adjust the overall price curve based upon your area's cost of living?

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You know, I've never thought about this, because I do not do any auction draft leagues, just auction free agents. But if your looking for dollar value price player lists, how do those list compare and contract to the reagion that you live in?

 

As in my 12pk of Lite runs $10 here in dallas. Where as in New York and Cali can be twice as much.

 

When your playing local leagues, using a standarized player price list, do you have to adjust the overall price curve based upon your area's cost of living?

We're not auctioning with real money, everyone has a salary cap of virtual money, so I really don't think cost of living has anything to do with it.

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That is part of the fun of an auction - local players typically go for more and maybe much more if two major homers are in the crowd. You also see things like two guys that have waited too long to get a RB suddenly push the price through the roof for the one decent remaining back when for the same price they could have had a top ten guy earlier.

 

It is the beauty of an auction - you never know how much players will go for and there are plenty of reasons why players are over or under valued. Just compare two auctions to see how differently some players are valued.

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but homers will probably cost more

Of course, but that's not the point.

 

That is part of the fun of an auction - local players typically go for more and maybe much more if two major homers are in the crowd. You also see things like two guys that have waited too long to get a RB suddenly push the price through the roof for the one decent remaining back when for the same price they could have had a top ten guy earlier.

 

It is the beauty of an auction - you never know how much players will go for and there are plenty of reasons why players are over or under valued. Just compare two auctions to see how differently some players are valued.

I don't think you understand my issue with this. pm sent

Edited by detlef
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This was my reply to your PM

 

 

 

Apparently I was not clear about what I was trying to say. When I say it considers other auctions, I mean in the sense of what top players are going for and very generally speaking how values decline within each position. In no way am I seeing Player X going for $35 in other auctions and using that. It is taking what my rankings are and then applying descending dollar values to them. I have not even seen another auction yet this year.

 

The values that are currently on the auction sheets are related to how auctions have historically gone (meaning player values within positions for top players on down) and a tweak against this year. Understand too that in a normal year by this time, I would have been dealing with the rankings and values for about three months, not less than two weeks.

 

The same goes for tiering. I was already planning on revisiting auction values this weekend and tiering as well since both are more art than science and both are closely related to more subjective measurements than objective.

 

So – no. I do not assign individual player values based on anything other than what I value that player at. I do not use other auction results for anything more than a feel for what players within their positions are naturally arrayed top to bottom and at what point they usually end up for minimums (or close). Rankings and projections and auction values and tiering is a bitch this year since we are doing in a week what normally took months. I am going to revisit it this week and every week until the season begins.

 

Jamming out ranks and projections was a Herculean task thanks to the lockout and rapid player movement. And auction values always attracts interesting emails and such that literally will rip me for them being far too conservative and in the same day another says I am far too liberal. At best, they are only guidelines to be used in conjunction with the team owners own wisdom about his auction.

 

Trust me – I am not, nor would I ever, take the easy way out on something as important to me as rankings and projections and auction values.

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None the less, no top-notch RB or WR goes for near what they're supposed according to the Huddle in any of these mocks I've done. The highest RBs top out right around 60 rather than the 80 the Huddle has them going at. The top WRs are going for 40 rather than 50+ and the guys like Reggie Wayne and Greg Jennings are going for 30+ rather than the mid 20s the Huddle has them at. So, what auctions are you basing your data on?

 

In my experience with a local auction league that has been running for 10 years the best values are typically at the very top because those players are actually worth the higher budget DMD shows and people are scared to spend too much on one player, only to end up overspending on lesser talent. Obviously you can't fill a team like that but I generally try to overbuy two studs and then fill in the gaps with my remaining budget later on.

 

I have tried all sorts of different draft strategies for fun but this seems to work the best for me. I would use the estimated auction value as a guide for what might be overpriced rather than what you would expect to pay because that will depend on the participants themselves. Oh, and the guy who tries to get every player for less than projected "value" never ends up with a particularly good team in my experience.

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In my experience with a local auction league that has been running for 10 years the best values are typically at the very top because those players are actually worth the higher budget DMD shows and people are scared to spend too much on one player, only to end up overspending on lesser talent. Obviously you can't fill a team like that but I generally try to overbuy two studs and then fill in the gaps with my remaining budget later on.

 

I have tried all sorts of different draft strategies for fun but this seems to work the best for me. I would use the estimated auction value as a guide for what might be overpriced rather than what you would expect to pay because that will depend on the participants themselves. Oh, and the guy who tries to get every player for less than projected "value" never ends up with a particularly good team in my experience.

I will certainly agree that I've never ended up with a very good team in mocks when I waited out all the high priced players and tried to load up on good ones. Eventually I ran out of dudes I cared about any more than the rest before I ran out of money. And there's no point in that.

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rule of auctions - typically the first player in each position (assuming he is a stud player) will go for less than he should. People like to sit back on the first guy to see where the group is going to value the position. The next best player in that position usually goes for even more.

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At best, they are only guidelines to be used in conjunction with the team owners own wisdom about his auction.

This.

 

Fantasy football involves people. People are wildcards. There are no sure things. There are no silver bullets. I am continually amazed at the number of people who seem to think there is some magic strategy out there that is guaranteed to win. Or a cheatsheet that is 100% accurate for all leagues. Or auction values that hold true for all leagues all over the country. Or stat preductions for each game that are right on every time. :wacko:

 

Unless you are a psychic/clairvoyant/etc or have a time machine, the best you can do is use the resources avail to you along with your own judgement to acquire and start the players you think will score the most points. I have found the info here at The Huddle helps me do this better than my competition, but I in no way expect that I am ever guaranteed to win or not end up with a bust or whatever.

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This.

 

Fantasy football involves people. People are wildcards. There are no sure things. There are no silver bullets. I am continually amazed at the number of people who seem to think there is some magic strategy out there that is guaranteed to win. Or a cheatsheet that is 100% accurate for all leagues. Or auction values that hold true for all leagues all over the country. Or stat preductions for each game that are right on every time. :wacko:

 

Unless you are a psychic/clairvoyant/etc or have a time machine, the best you can do is use the resources avail to you along with your own judgement to acquire and start the players you think will score the most points. I have found the info here at The Huddle helps me do this better than my competition, but I in no way expect that I am ever guaranteed to win or not end up with a bust or whatever.

Dude, :tup: back at you if you truly think I was expecting perfection or for The Huddle to tell me exactly what to do.

 

But it makes for a more entertaining response when you pretend I was, doesn't it.

 

Regardless, DMD knows what I'm saying and addressed it so whatever.

 

But, no, this is not me bitching because DMD said Ray Rice was going to get 120 yds and 2 scores but he only got 65 and 1.

 

ETA: And yes, these are guidelines and, ultimately we decide to what degree we want to follow them. However, it's still worth distilling whether or not the Huddle seems to value high-end players at various positions higher than the norm and I think it's quite valid to question why the valuation given to players by the Huddle is not consistent with their own tiers.

Edited by detlef
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rule of auctions - typically the first player in each position (assuming he is a stud player) will go for less than he should. People like to sit back on the first guy to see where the group is going to value the position. The next best player in that position usually goes for even more.

 

This has been my experience also. Except with TimC and bidding on Romo. Holy cow...

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rule of auctions - typically the first player in each position (assuming he is a stud player) will go for less than he should. People like to sit back on the first guy to see where the group is going to value the position. The next best player in that position usually goes for even more.

 

 

This has been my experience also. Except with TimC and bidding on Romo. Holy cow...

Interesting and makes sense. Mind you, it's sort of an exception to the rule about throwing out a high profile guy you don't like early to chase the money out.

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In an auction last weekend, I waited out the initial RBs, thinking they were going to high. One owner spent 90+ bucks on L McCoy and A Peterson, and this loosened me up a bit, as everyone had a back on their roster, some had 2 before I had one. Luckily for me, there was still J Charles left, and I got him for $36. A relative bargin compared to the other RBs.

 

But I overspent on Romo, who I spent $29 on. And Im convinced because it was local, people valued Romo more than other Qbs. Especially when Peyton Manning was the 11th QB off the board, and he only went for $16. But Romo was my cherry, first pick in the Auction, and other QBs in his tier were going for 35-30. I didnt want to end up with Josh Freeman or Bradford as my starter. Had I known Peyton would go for so much less, Id have waited and got him. :wacko:

 

 

I ended up with a decent core, Romo (29), Charles (36), Blount (25), G jennings(33), R Wayne(27), J Graham (14). But I overspent for M Manningham (17), where M Colston later went for $5, as did Ryan Mathews for $5. But I was so low on cash, I coudlnt bid more than 4 bucks on any player by the time these 2 were put up for bid.

 

 

I got value much later with

 

Daniel Thomas for $4

Santana Moss for $2

Eli for $2,

B Edwards for $2

Ryan Williams for $1

Marcedes lewis for a $1

S Smith (Car) for $1

 

 

Im not sold on Blount as my #2 RB, and have 2 rookies (Ryan Williams and Daniel Thomas) behind him. Along with Reggie Bush I got off the wire, when a team overbid his limit and it was caught after the draft, so he was put on waivers and my blind bid was the highest.

 

Overall I think my team is middle of the pack. But I learned alot in my first auction. Next year, Im spending for 4 studs and Ill fill in the roster with values later. No way I could have known Manningham would go for 17, and Colston would go for $5. But Ill be better prepared next yr after this initial experience.

Edited by Brent
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The upper tier players of the Huddle's auction values are pretty much in line with my leagues. Top 3 RBs go 80ish, top 3 WRs go 60ish,and top 3 QB goes 40-50.

 

Everything else is a crapshoot because there are too many variables.

 

Homers

Supply and demand of particular position

People have different perceptions of value.

 

Those two are the most telling variables on auction values.

 

I intend to use the Huddle's auction values as only a very rough, and I stress very, guide.

 

Just my 1/2 cent.

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Honestly, when I go into an auction, I am less concerned with what values I think players are worth as I am with the budget that I have set. I am simply trying to find the best players I can get within my limits.

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I found the point concerning the large range in tiers to be well taken. Even in Huddle Rankings and ppr rankings, the order is based on projected points during the season. From everything I've read, there should usually be a spread of 16 to 20 points within a tier. This way, you would theoretically be happy to obtain any player in that tier. DMD says as much in his book. He then says that you should rely on your gut. What benefit are the projections in assigning rankings then? As was mentioned earlier, there should be a significant drop from one tier to another. I dont see these things in the rankings. In ppr rankings for example, Larry Fitzgerald is in same tier with Steve Johnson.Dwayne Bowe is in same tier with Roy Williams.MJD is ranked with Cedric Benson. None of this makes logical sense to me. I'm going to use the rankings and then assign my own tiers. Difference of opinion is one thing. Not being logical, or consistent with your own projection points is another.

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Honestly, when I go into an auction, I am less concerned with what values I think players are worth as I am with the budget that I have set. I am simply trying to find the best players I can get within my limits.

 

 

Good point and when you try to make sure players don't get taken too cheap you end up with players you never wanted in the first place and it can wreck your draft.

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Good point and when you try to make sure players don't get taken too cheap you end up with players you never wanted in the first place and it can wreck your draft.

Who are they? I stopped caring about who, in particular, I got after a number of years ago when a draft didn't go the way I was hoping and I "ended up" with a far better team than the one I'd mapped out. I was hopping McGehee would fall to me at the end of the 1st but he went a pick before mine and was stuck with A Green. Same at the end of the 3rd. I was hoping to grab Koren Robinson but ended up with T Holt, and so on. A few rounds later, I at least had enough sense to not reach for J Porter from the Raiders because that was way too soon, but I was going to try and move back out of my 5th round pick and accumulate some picks. Nobody bought, so I used the pick for the kid Johnson from Cinci who was coming into his 3rd year. A guy who I felt totally luke warm about but, what the hell, he was the next guy on my list and I was stuck with the pick.

 

I now divest myself a bit and use the gut less. For me the draft is all about value, mostly because our data is as bad as it's going to be all season long. It's all speculation. Look at how wildly wrong the experts are at the pre-season college top 25. You just don't know. So, the best way to measure the success of your draft is to see whether or not you managed to get guys that are generally considered to be sold to great players for less or later than you should have. After all, the only way I can make sure I end up with the "guys I want" is to overpay for all of them. Either by spending too much or picking them too early. I'd better be pretty damned sure that I know something that everyone doesn't if I'm going to go that way or I'm ending up with a lesser team than I would have had I curbed my ego. Basically be the one guy at the table who was prepared to admit that he doesn't have some inside scoop and can't see the future, and thus, is prepared to mine the values leftover as the rest try to paint their sistine chapels.

 

The bizarre thing is the valuation that we allow to override our rankings. Regardless of whether you just buy a list and go with it or make your own, we have this strange habit of then discounting players from their final spot because of our gut feelings. Besides the fact that our guts, by definition, have chight for brains, it's a highly illogical act. You recognize that this guy should be the #15 RB but, should it come to your turn and he's the highest rated RB on the board, you're going somewhere else because he's not the guy you want? Why not either move him down the rankings or just grab him? I'm not saying that you, specifically do this, but it seems to be a habit among drafters. There are guys they want, guys they don't and they just sort of override their planning once it becomes apparent that they're either going to have to reach against their own rankings to get the guy they want or ignore the "best" guy available according to their pre-draft research because "they've got a bad feeling" about that dude. And both are completely irrational. Why did you bother establishing a pre-draft ranking if you're going to ignore it?

 

Now, certainly, my only real draft experience pertains to how this goes down in a snake draft, but I would imagine there's some carry over to an auction. It has certainly been the case in the mocks I've done. "Wait a minute, he's going for what? OK, I'll take him." Not saying you're going to be able to do that with every pick. But it seems foolish to ignore a guy is representing a bargain just because he's not a guy you were targeting going in. Guess what? He's yours now. And because you got a $40 back for $27, now maybe you can actually buy a tier one QB, something you were never planning on doing because you were saving it up for the RBs.

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All I was saying is that if you bid on every player that appears to be going for less than you pegged them for either to raise the bid or because "you'll take them for that value" can get you in trouble. By all means pick up deals when they present themselves but lets say you spent a good chunk of change on 2 RBs early and then another guy is going for way less than you had projected. It won't help your team to spend that money when you still need WR or QB just because it's a value at that point. Along the same lines, if you refuse to go over your pre-draft pricing for some of the top talent... you choose which ones... you will end up with a nice team of tier 2 players that will probably never score enough points to get you into the playoffs. It's just like a snake draft really in that your first 3 picks (or in this case the 3 most expensive players) goes a long way towards determining your ultimate success.

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