No points deducted for interceptions?

[arnoldg3]

My drafts are coming up soon and I plan on using the customized cheat sheets with my own tiers as well as the top 200 for ppr. I'm surprised that someone as analytical as David Dorey hasnt made available a customized top 200 list. Most of the other major sites do. Fortunately the top 200 list is very close to my leagues rules and should work fine. The only difference is that the top 200 list, just like the Huddle ppr list, does not deduct any points for an interception. My league deducts one point. I would think that this difference would affect the value rankings in the top 200.

[detlef]

Given the subjective nature of a top 200 list, I would be leery of any customizable top 200 list. Well, either that or it's one damned impressive equation. It's one thing to rank players within their position based on different scoring system because, once you've done the projections, it's just a matter of plugging in the scoring and coming up with some deal that set tiers based on drop-off.

 

However, the top 200 has so many other, much harder to equate factors. Positional scarcity. Elevated importance of positions based on scoring changes. But you can't just list the top scores because, in nearly every scoring system, 25 QBs would be listed in the top 30. But that's obviously a stupid way to rank the overall top 200.

 

I suppose someone could come up with a very intricate ranking system that, factors in all these things and spits out an overall score. But that would require also knowing starting line-up requirements (which has at least as much to do with how the overall top 200 should look than scoring systems). Then you could rank by that score. And if such an macro exists, well I guess that would be pretty damned cool.

 

Unless you just want to be told a number and don't much care about the thought process in delivering that number to you.

[Outshined]

IMO - minus one point for interceptions, shouldn't change the top 200 list that much. Were only talking about 15-20 QB's and whats the most interceptions thrown: 20?

[flemingd]

Excel really isn't that hard to use dude.

[MikesVikes]

You look at the list. You see a choice between two quarterbacks, say one is Drew Brees and the other one is Vince Young. Obviously Brees is going to throw more interceptions than Young since he will be playing more. Take Young.

[gsmayes]

Given the subjective nature of a top 200 list, I would be leery of any customizable top 200 list. Well, either that or it's one damned impressive equation. It's one thing to rank players within their position based on different scoring system because, once you've done the projections, it's just a matter of plugging in the scoring and coming up with some deal that set tiers based on drop-off.

 

However, the top 200 has so many other, much harder to equate factors. Positional scarcity. Elevated importance of positions based on scoring changes. But you can't just list the top scores because, in nearly every scoring system, 25 QBs would be listed in the top 30. But that's obviously a stupid way to rank the overall top 200.

 

I suppose someone could come up with a very intricate ranking system that, factors in all these things and spits out an overall score. But that would require also knowing starting line-up requirements (which has at least as much to do with how the overall top 200 should look than scoring systems). Then you could rank by that score. And if such an macro exists, well I guess that would be pretty damned cool.

 

Unless you just want to be told a number and don't much care about the thought process in delivering that number to you.

 

The guy has a legitimate feature request., don't think he deserves the snark.

 

And how many QBs are in the top 30 really depends on the scoring system, don't you think? Hey, a customized overall top 200 ranking would really help people get a handle on relative positional value in their league based strictly on scoring system, why doesn't the huddle have that feature?! It's not like they would have to remove the human compiled ranking if they added it.

Edited August 23, 2011 by gsmayes

[detlef]

The guy has a legitimate feature request., don't think he deserves the snark.

 

And how many QBs are in the top 30 really depends on the scoring system, don't you think? Hey, a customized overall top 200 ranking would really help people get a handle on relative positional value in their league based strictly on scoring system, why doesn't the huddle have that feature?! It's not like they would have to remove the human compiled ranking if they added it.

That wasn't being snarky. Just saying that a customizable top 200 is either going to be useless and random or insanely intricate. After all, it needs to be something a computer can spit out on demand, right? Certainly we're not expecting someone from the site to go in and do this by hand.

 

So, again, ranking within positions? No problem. Plug the scoring into the projections and, viola. You can even set the tiers based on where the drop-offs happen. No problem.

 

But there's so much more involved with the top 200. Certain scoring systems make the field deeper at various positions which limits their value at the top. Seriously, you'd have to create a pretty elaborate algorithm that assigned players values based on how they stacked up against their position as well as the relative importance of their position vs others. I mean, think about it. What goes into your decision when it's the 15th pick and Gore, V Jackson, and Tom Brady are on the board? And depending on the scoring rules and roster requirements, that decision could be different. And those things are hard to make a computer program that will make that determination.

 

Which is why I would not be inclined to think a top 200 that they could just spit out based on your scoring was worth a damned.

[arnoldg3]

If this is such a complicated process then how are The Huddle top 200 and top 200 ppr rankings formulated? Players are ranked regardless of position.

[Turf Smurf]

My drafts are coming up soon and I plan on using the customized cheat sheets with my own tiers as well as the top 200 for ppr. I'm surprised that someone as analytical as David Dorey hasnt made available a customized top 200 list. Most of the other major sites do. Fortunately the top 200 list is very close to my leagues rules and should work fine. The only difference is that the top 200 list, just like the Huddle ppr list, does not deduct any points for an interception. My league deducts one point. I would think that this difference would affect the value rankings in the top 200.

[Turf Smurf]

Given the subjective nature of a top 200 list, I would be leery of any customizable top 200 list. Well, either that or it's one damned impressive equation. It's one thing to rank players within their position based on different scoring system because, once you've done the projections, it's just a matter of plugging in the scoring and coming up with some deal that set tiers based on drop-off.

 

However, the top 200 has so many other, much harder to equate factors. Positional scarcity. Elevated importance of positions based on scoring changes. But you can't just list the top scores because, in nearly every scoring system, 25 QBs would be listed in the top 30. But that's obviously a stupid way to rank the overall top 200.

 

I suppose someone could come up with a very intricate ranking system that, factors in all these things and spits out an overall score. But that would require also knowing starting line-up requirements (which has at least as much to do with how the overall top 200 should look than scoring systems). Then you could rank by that score. And if such an macro exists, well I guess that would be pretty damned cool.

 

Unless you just want to be told a number and don't much care about the thought process in delivering that number to you.

 

 

Isn't this what the Huddle is paid to do? Told a number? This is what it is. You pay to listen or not and thne go your own way.

 

Yer an idjut...

[detlef]

If this is such a complicated process then how are The Huddle top 200 and top 200 ppr rankings formulated? Players are ranked regardless of position.

I would imagine, the same way anyone else would do them. Just sit down and knock them out. But, at a point, it's a bit subjective, and that's part of the insight we pay for. "Do I want Tom Brady, Vincent Jackson, or Frank Gore?". Say you pick Vincent Jackson. OK, do you want Tom Brady, Frank Gore, or Hakeem Nick? And so on. And your decision is based on how much they're going to score relative to their position as well as how important the position is to your bottom line as well as how hard it is to predict who is going to be good at their position.

 

It's not rocket science, but it still needs to be done by hand. Which, I'd imagine, is why they do one for regular scoring and one for PPR but can't just spit one out for each and every scoring system. And why I would be rather suspect of an overall top 200 that could be automatically generated. Again, unless someone explained to me how they managed to come up with such a formula.

 

For all you guys who seem to think it should be easy, how do you propose they do this? What's the magic formula that objectively and automatically quantifies player value across positions given different scoring systems?

 

It's like the stupid draft pick trade evaluator. Some guy at FF Toolbox has a magic formula that tells you who gets the better end of trades involving draft picks. OK? Why do we just assume this guy isn't totally full of crap? Because he's got a slick little formula that spits out a number?

[arnoldg3]

I could be wrong, but I believe they set projections and assign points based on their calculations-see: projections in Huddle draft kit. Am I correct in saying that the Huddle top 200 rankings utilize value based drafting techniques? Are players ranked based on the drop offs at each position?

Edited August 23, 2011 by arnoldg3

[Scooby's Hubby]

Definately helps Eli Manning and Cutler. Eli had 25 INT's last year

[delusions of grandeur]

I could be wrong, but I believe they set projections and assign points based on their calculations-see: projections in Huddle draft kit. Am I correct in saying that the Huddle top 200 rankings utilize value based drafting techniques? Are players ranked based on the drop offs at each position?

Yes, I think it's safe to say that the top 200 rankings pull from the projected numbers. My guess is that if you compare the postional rankings and positions on the top 200 they should be the same. I don't see why they'd be different... So if those those projections include INTs, then what makes you think the top 200 doesn't take into account interceptions? I just don't see where you're getting that, and as far as I know all the rankings take them into account.

 

Secondly, to take what Det said even further, it would be a flawed strategy to rely too much on a customized top 200 rankings, or in their case to do it... Look at these rankings like an "ideal" mock draft, where according to them, the players "should" be falling off the board like so... But just like looking at ADP, when does your draft ever go exactly like the others one did? Never... So take the top 200 as one way that players can fall off the board, but rather than looking at what "could" happen, and who you might want to look at if it happened just like that, it is far more helpful to customize a cheat sheet that's separated by position to tell you who IS falling off the board at each position.

 

In short, cheat sheets are far more helpful, while rankings should be taken with a grain of salt... For example, just because a QB might be next on the top 200 rankings does not mean that you should necessarily take him... Your tiered cheat sheet will help you far more in deciding "if I go here, then I can go there later", or "the value is at position X" and so on.

Edited August 23, 2011 by delusions of granduer

[BearBroncos]

I think people read WAY to much into list such as a top 200. They are merely suggestions based upon previous year’s numbers. It doesn't take into account what teams they play against this year, what position they might be in (moved from flank to slot). Blockers added/removed etc.

 

You need to take what the list provides you and then add in the variables yourself to come up with a rational opinion of how YOU think the player will perform in the current year.

[detlef]

Yes, I think it's safe to say that the top 200 rankings pull from the projected numbers. My guess is that if you compare the postional rankings and positions on the top 200 they should be the same. I don't see why they'd be different... So if those those projections include INTs, then what makes you think the top 200 doesn't take into account interceptions? I just don't see where you're getting that, and as far as I know all the rankings take them into account.

 

Secondly, to take what Det said even further, it would be a flawed strategy to rely too much on a customized top 200 rankings, or in their case to do it... Look at these rankings like an "ideal" mock draft, where according to them, the players "should" be falling off the board like so... But just like looking at ADP, when does your draft ever go exactly like the others one did? Never... So take the top 200 as one way that players can fall off the board, but rather than looking at what "could" happen, and who you might want to look at if it happened just like that, it is far more helpful to customize a cheat sheet that's separated by position to tell you who IS falling off the board at each position.

 

In short, cheat sheets are far more helpful, while rankings should be taken with a grain of salt... For example, just because a QB might be next on the top 200 rankings does not mean that you should necessarily take him... Your tiered cheat sheet will help you far more in deciding "if I go here, then I can go there later", or "the value is at position X" and so on.

Well, I do think an overall top 200 is an extremely valuable tool because I try to avoid chasing positions as much as possible. And, if you're doing a very standard league with standard line-up requirements and scoring and, I'm assuming 12 teams, and you trust DMD's judgement (which I would hope is the case if you're paying him money) then the stock top 200 is a great tool. But that's it.

 

If your league is not that size or that scoring or starting requirements, you're simply going to have to make your own top 200 because all those variables, not just the scoring, need to be taken into account to create a top 200. And, while an algorithm could theoretically be made that can customize the top 200 based on the Huddle's individual projections per player, it would be a pretty damned slick equation and it would require all that data, not just the scoring for your league to be remotely useful.

 

Forgive including that last bit in my reply to you because it doesn't actually apply to what you said.

 

ETA: Again, for those who think this should be easy. Here's an example. I'm in a PPR league that has very flexible starting line-up requirements. I can start as few as 1 RB. Even if it was standard PPR, which it's not because RBs get .5, WRs get 1, and TE's get 1.5, but let's say it was. The fact that WRs score so many points and the fact that I don't have to start 2 RBs makes the Huddle's top 200 PPR inaccurate. Why? Because the mid tier WRs outscore the mid tier RBs and I only have to start one RB. So, while it still makes sense to grab a top 12 RB, it doesn't matter nearly as much that I grab another one in the top 20. So, the top 200 for that league is different mostly because of the starting line-ups, not just the scoring. Now, how to you propose DMD account for that in his magical and customizable top 200?

Edited August 23, 2011 by detlef

[lennykravitz2004]

Sounds to me like there's a request for the secret formula to Coke in here somewheres...

[delusions of grandeur]

Well, I do think an overall top 200 is an extremely valuable tool because I try to avoid chasing positions as much as possible. And, if you're doing a very standard league with standard line-up requirements and scoring and, I'm assuming 12 teams, and you trust DMD's judgement (which I would hope is the case if you're paying him money) then the stock top 200 is a great tool. But that's it.

 

If your league is not that size or that scoring or starting requirements, you're simply going to have to make your own top 200 because all those variables, not just the scoring, need to be taken into account to create a top 200. And, while an algorithm could theoretically be made that can customize the top 200 based on the Huddle's individual projections per player, it would be a pretty damned slick equation and it would require all that data, not just the scoring for your league to be remotely useful.

 

Forgive including that last bit in my reply to you because it doesn't actually apply to what you said.

True, I didn't mean to discount those rankings, just reiterating that there are too many factors that could influence what player you decide to take besides just who's ranked higher on that sheet... Also, good point, I neglected to mention how important lineup requirements are as well. They're obviously a huge factor in decision-making, but would be even more difficult to "customize" the rankings using them.

 

As per "avoiding chasing positions", that's not really what I'm talking about with regard to cheat sheets (though I can see cases where the draft/scoring/lineups might necessitate you chasing a particular position). Moreover, I'm talking about it like the ffcalculator mock drafts, where it shows positions in different color to help you better see how the draft is unfolding over just a draft results list.... I think it's absolutely a really handy tool when you're caught deciding between 2 positions, and you can look down that list and see what other targets you've got there later; And of course you can't discount how much it helps to see better what you're opponents are doing, as it can influence your decision too....

 

I don't think you have to chase positions at all for it to be very useful, especially with the tiers included.

Edited August 23, 2011 by delusions of granduer

[arnoldg3]

If you check the draft kit, under cheat sheets, you'll see scoring requirements for Huddle 200 and Huddle PPR. If you click on that tab it will bring up the scoring rules that the rankings are based on. No points are deducted for an interception. I can definitely see the value of using the cheat sheets, determining tiers and availablity, but notwithstanding that, arent the top 200 rankings based on value drafting? All things being equal wouldnt the ranking order theoretically represent the drafting order?

[detlef]

If you check the draft kit, under cheat sheets, you'll see scoring requirements for Huddle 200 and Huddle PPR. If you click on that tab it will bring up the scoring rules that the rankings are based on. No points are deducted for an interception. I can definitely see the value of using the cheat sheets, determining tiers and availablity, but notwithstanding that, arent the top 200 rankings based on value drafting? All things being equal wouldnt the ranking order theoretically represent the drafting order?

 

I am simply responding to this statement you made below.

I'm surprised that someone as analytical as David Dorey hasnt made available a customized top 200 list. Most of the other major sites do. .

[delusions of grandeur]

If you check the draft kit, under cheat sheets, you'll see scoring requirements for Huddle 200 and Huddle PPR. If you click on that tab it will bring up the scoring rules that the rankings are based on. No points are deducted for an interception. I can definitely see the value of using the cheat sheets, determining tiers and availablity, but notwithstanding that, arent the top 200 rankings based on value drafting? All things being equal wouldnt the ranking order theoretically represent the drafting order?

Okay I see the scoring now... So why don't you just input your scoring into the cheat sheets, and see if -1 per interceptions actually makes much if any difference in the QBs value... I'm guessing that you'll find that it doesn't have much affect if any at all at -1...

 

Yes, obviously with them placing the bellcows at the top of the rankings, it is meant to be value-based (stud RBs have more value because they're scarce), rather than simply on scoring. Any rankings worth a salt should be....

 

But like we've been trying to explain, DO NOT take these rankings and projections as gospel regardless. They're there to help you make a more informed decision, but unless your scoring and positions are identical to the one they're using for those rankings, then they might not be that applicable to your draft at all. Use everything here as tools, but at the end of the day, it's up to you to know how your league's scoring and lineup requirements are going to come into play, and it's up to you to use the information given here to make your own opinion about players, not to just follow a rankings list blindly... Use these projections and rankings as tools to help you, but if you're looking for rankings as a gospel tailored to your specific league, then you're going to be disappointed. Such a thing does not exist.

[gsmayes]

You guys are making this way too complicated.

 

The customized top 200 would simply be a prediction of your league's overall player rankings at the end of the season, based on scoring system and huddle preseason projections. NOTHING MORE! This would be particularly helpful when you join a new league with an unfamiliar scoring system; say a 0.5 RB, 1.0 WR and 1.5 TE ppr league. I have never played in this type of league and have no idea how far this would move TEs up the top 200 ranking, i.e. relative value compared to RB and WR. A customized top 200 would help me get a handle on this. It's just another tool, throw a disclaimer on there about positional scarcity blah, blah, blah if it makes you feel better.

[delusions of grandeur]

You guys are making this way too complicated.

 

The customized top 200 would simply be a prediction of your league's overall player rankings at the end of the season, based on scoring system and huddle preseason projections. NOTHING MORE! This would be particularly helpful when you join a new league with an unfamiliar scoring system; say a 0.5 RB, 1.0 WR and 1.5 TE ppr league. I have never played in this type of league and have no idea how far this would move TEs up the top 200 ranking, i.e. relative value compared to RB and WR. A customized top 200 would help me get a handle on this. It's just another tool, throw a disclaimer on there about positional scarcity blah, blah, blah if it makes you feel better.

Like Det said earlier, the reason you likely won't see this is because while it is easy to input your scoring and have it pop out a cheat sheet show you how that changes values WITHIN the position, when you're talking about top 200 where you have to mix the players together, than that would need an incredibly complex algorithm that would be very difficult to implement with any sort of accuracy...

 

Positional scarcity is a key factor when you mix the positions together, and thus I have to assume they do it by hand, and it is not simply something that a formula can do with any degree of accuracy... And of course this doesn't even mention how lineup requirements will change values. It's just not something that would be helpful for them to do, and might even influence you to make a bad decision if not done correctly.

Edited August 23, 2011 by delusions of granduer

[detlef]

You guys are making this way too complicated.

 

The customized top 200 would simply be a prediction of your league's overall player rankings at the end of the season, based on scoring system and huddle preseason projections. NOTHING MORE! This would be particularly helpful when you join a new league with an unfamiliar scoring system; say a 0.5 RB, 1.0 WR and 1.5 TE ppr league. I have never played in this type of league and have no idea how far this would move TEs up the top 200 ranking, i.e. relative value compared to RB and WR. A customized top 200 would help me get a handle on this. It's just another tool, throw a disclaimer on there about positional scarcity blah, blah, blah if it makes you feel better.

But there's already a prediction of the player rankings that you can tailor to your league and the top 200 is not that at all. If it was, then in nearly every league, 18 of the top 20 spots would be QBs. But they're not, are they. For every draft, I make a top 200 list and it has a ton to do with scarcity and relevance of the position. I make it so that when it comes to my pick, I can see who my pick "should" be, all things being equal. I don't see what value a top 200 list would be if it didn't take those things into account.

 

So, what you're suggesting is that an arbitrary and borderline useless list be generated and that they simply place a disclaimer saying that it's probably entirely inaccurate for lack of pertinent data? Why bother?

[gsmayes]

You keep assuming that every scoring system is like yours, i.e. QB heavy.

 

You remember that huddle perfect scoring article that analyzed scoring systems and attempted to devise scoring which equalized value across the QB, RB, WR, and TE positions? That's all a customized top 200 is minus the graphs and using huddle preseason projections rather than the previous season's stats. It tells you which positions score the most points in your scoring system, not necessarily who to draft first.