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Had my first Live Draft of the Season Sunday


Cyclones
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Not looking for a "rate my team" type thread - I have never done mocks before this season, trying to generate discussion on mocking and establishing a strategy and how to manage the draft when the strategy goes haywire.

 

 

I had done 6 mocks leading up to our live draft Sunday but none of them even remotely turned out like my actual draft did, which kind of messed up my strategy. I had guys identified who I had thought would be gone and available (4-5 at every pick) but it didnt quite turn out that way. I drew the first pick - first time in a long time I have owned it, but didnt really want it this year.

 

We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 DST, 1 K. Max roster size is 16.

 

10 Team League in our 9th year

Standard Performance Scoring

1 pt/20 yards passing

1 pt/10 yards rush/receive

1 pt/2 receptions

All TDs six points

-2 INT/Fumble

 

I went back and forth between ADP and Foster for the last week - worried about Foster's hammy but after seeing him the other night go 5/47/2 TDs and looking great, I decided on Foster on Sunday morning.

 

My strategy was to follow this up with either WR/WR (was hoping some combo of Jennings/Fitz/CJ/VJax would be there) or to go QB/WR if Vick or Rodgers was there.

 

Between 1 and 20, there were 4 QBs taken (Rodgers at 9, Vick at 14, Brady at 16,Rivers at 19) along with several wideouts. When 20 came around, Jennings/VJax/White/Calvin were all gone but Fitz was still there - as was McFadden. I could have reached for Manning here to go with Fitz, but decided I couldnt pass on McFadden at 20. So after 3 rounds -

 

RB Foster, McFadden

WR Fitzgerald

 

At this point my strategy was to wait on a QB when the 40/41 turn hit, figuring the best available at that point might be Big Ben/Freeman or someone like that. Romo and Manning also fell of the board before my next pick, but Schaub was still there. Gates, Witten, Clark and V Davis had been taken by this point as well, so with my 4th and 5th pick I want Finley/Schaub. Not sure what to think at this point as the draft has gone nothing like I expected.

 

QB Schaub

RB Foster, McFadden

WR Fitzgerald

TE Finley

 

I knew I needed some depth at the skill positions - along with a 2nd starting WR at the next turn. I reached a bit for Manningham and couldnt turn down another starting RB when Lynch was still available. I figure I can play matchups and swap Lynch out at the flex spot with the next WR I grab - which turned out to be Lance Moore in the 8th - I took Jerome Harrison along with him - hoping that at some point Best gets nicked up or the concussions bother him. So after 9 rounds

 

QB Schaub

RB Foster, McFadden, Lynch, J. Harrison

WR Fitzgerald, Manningham, L. Moore

TE Finley

 

At this point I was after depth and the best available defense and kicker in the 14th and 15th rounds. I took Bradford next as a backup QB, followed by Mike Thomas, Britt, Pettigrew, Ravens D, Kaeding, and finished the draft off with Ronnie Brown. So, overall my team ended like this

 

QB Schaub, Bradford

RB Foster, McFadden, Lynch, J Harrison, R Brown

WR Fitzgerald, Manningham, Moore, Britt, Thomas

TE Finley, Pettigrew

DST Ravens

K Kaeding

 

Overall I am probably a 7.5/10 on the satisfied scale. I had planned to really load up on WR but the QB/WR run in the 2nd round pretty much forced my hand on McFadden. Not thrilled with Manningham as a #2, although perhaps I can play matchups with he and Moore. I'm also a little concerned about the Schaub/Foster combo - if the Texans lay an egg I'm likely cooked.

 

This was the first year I have done mocks and felt more prepared than ever coming into the draft, but the curveballs I was thrown had me adjusting my strategy each round and I feel I may have done better had I just gone in blind. Anyone have any experience doing a bunch of mocks only to have their actual draft turn out very different?

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I remember last year doing tons of mocks and pretty much thought the first round would be scripted pretty much how all my mocks went, but of course it went nothing like that. After that, I don't much stock into mocks as everyone is drafting using their own scoring, trying out different strategies and there is always a huge curveball pick by someone.

 

I like your team though. I also hate having any of my qb/top wr/top rb being from the same team because like you said if the offense has a bad game it pretty much kills your week but it could work out fine.

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Mocks are no longer about what you think will happen, but about preparing for the unexpected. Doing enough mock to understand who you're high on, who you're not, what you do when your high list goes early and how you adjust when someone you didn't expect to be there but love is is how you win drafts now.

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IMO, it seems like you chased the QB/TE rushes at the 4/5 turn. Should have been some nice bargains left at RB & WR. I probably would have taken advantage of the depth at QB&TE, especially in a 10 team league, and loaded up at WR & RB.

 

Yeah, looking back I think that may have been the biggest mistake I made. I haven't gone back to see who was still available there at RB/WR but I know I could have done better than Manningham and Lynch. I made the classic move of reacting to a rush. When those 4TEs went I followed suit and got Finley (who I actually had at 3rd on the TE list.)

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Cyclones - If the turnover in your league is never that great - it could help you to look back at how the other owners have drafted year to year for next season.

 

Sometimes looking at draft history (rather than relying on memory alone) can help you pick up on trends for owners in your league that help guide your picks.

 

Most owners don't draft the same exact way every year - but some show strong tendencies you can pick up on and exploit. e.g. certain owners always seem to go early on TE in my league. Some owners have the potential to reach for a top tier QB - but several have never gone earlier than the fifth round for a QB in any draft.

 

Especially when you're picking close to a turn, knowing who's drafting around you can augment the info from mocks & ADP.

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Cyclones - If the turnover in your league is never that great - it could help you to look back at how the other owners have drafted year to year for next season.

 

Sometimes looking at draft history (rather than relying on memory alone) can help you pick up on trends for owners in your league that help guide your picks.

 

Most owners don't draft the same exact way every year - but some show strong tendencies you can pick up on and exploit. e.g. certain owners always seem to go early on TE in my league. Some owners have the potential to reach for a top tier QB - but several have never gone earlier than the fifth round for a QB in any draft.

 

Especially when you're picking close to a turn, knowing who's drafting around you can augment the info from mocks & ADP.

 

We've had a few new owners through the years, including 2 new this year. 5 of the 10 have been in the league since the start. Typically the guys in my league have been adverse to drafting QBs early, so having 4 gone before pick 20 was really weird. I was targeting Fitz all along at the 20/21 turn, so was happy there. Looked in a couple of other directions but couldnt find a good reason not to take McFadden at 21. On paper the Foster/McFadden combo I have is far and away the best in my league.

Edited by Cyclones
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