Pac-12 weekend

[theprofessor]

2-4 on the week. 35-30 on the year.

 

I'm going bonkers on the pros the last few weeks, I should switch up my game....

 

USC, Stanford, and Oregon are playing lights out right now. Suddenly, like in the last two weekends, UCLA apparently is too. The Bruins control their destiny and could go from Neuheisel getting canned after the Arizona loss to being in the driver's seat for the South division's spot in the championship game. Utah has made a nice second half push to get into bowl positioning in their first season in the conference, while Washington has some fundamental basis for a drive to be in the top of the conference at some point in the near future, they are clearly not big enough, fast enough, or skilled enough to compete with the top end teams in the nation.

 

Anyway, big game weekend with the mighty clash of Oregon and Stanford. Definitely the game with the most ramifications nationally.

 

COLORADO +10 Arizona: I'm not sure the Wildcats have a lot of business being favored by dub-didje on the road against anyone.

 

USC -11 Washington: UW has won the last two meetings against the Trojans. Mid-November in the Coliseum, and history showing that it's never happened 3x.

 

UTAH -7 UCLA: Tough game to pick. Both teams are playing much better than they were a month ago. Siding with the home team, even though I really have zero inclination either way.

 

CALIFORNIA -9 Oregon St.: Cal is playing for bowl eligibility, and this is their last, best shot to get to 6 wins, since they close out @ Stanford and @ ASU.

 

Oregon -3.5 STANFORD: I wish like hell that Stanford will win this game, despite their boorish alums and my loathing of all-things Duck. Te fact is that the Cardinal haven't played anyone of note, at all, this season. An overtime win @ USC is the best win they have all year. Incidentally, that's the only game they've played where the margin is under 24 points. I'd love for Stanford to win and go on to play in the BCS title game, but as good and talented as they are on both sides of the football, I'm just not sure they're creative enough to overcome what the Ducks are going to throw at them. Totally worth watching and will likely be an incredible game, but I'm stepping out and taking the road team.

 

WASHINGTON ST. +12 Arizona St. : I have no reason either way to make this call. I'm pretty sure the state of Arizona thinks it's basketball season.

 

Nice write up again ...

 

My picks ....

 

There's no way Colorado covers. Foles will tear up the Buffs porous secondary. Arizona in a rout 37-20.

 

As big of a husky fan I am this one's going to be tough. Can we beat SC 3 times in a row? History, as you said, say's no. A big key will be to see if Trufant can limit Woods, which nobody else has been able to do. I think the trojan's will come out fired up for this one but I still think my Dawgs will cover on the road. USC 37 UW 31

 

Utah has been playing well and UCLA is hot right now. I have to side with the Utes here to cover. No way "Slick Rick" wins the south. Utah 30 UCLA 20.

 

A must win for the Bears and they did look better last week. OSU has looked better of late and I think they cover ...... barely .... California 28 OSU 20.

 

The "real" game of the year will be played THIS weekend in Palo Alto not in Bama as the loyal SEC fans thought. Oregon and Stanford will provide more offensive fireworks in the first 6 minutes of the game then Bama and LSU showed in the entire 60 minutes last week. The key to this game will be decided by the Stanford running game. If Oregon can neutralize the Stanford running game I see them getting the upset. I think the loss of Chris Owusu is going to hurt Luck and Stanford's ability to match points with Chip Kelly's offensive juggernaut. Another year where the Pac-12 teams knock each other out of the NC race. Oregon by 10 ......... 41-31.

Edited November 11, 2011 by theprofessor

[SEC=UGA]

2-4 on the week. 35-30 on the year.

 

I'm going bonkers on the pros the last few weeks, I should switch up my game....

 

USC, Stanford, and Oregon are playing lights out right now. Suddenly, like in the last two weekends, UCLA apparently is too. The Bruins control their destiny and could go from Neuheisel getting canned after the Arizona loss to being in the driver's seat for the South division's spot in the championship game. Utah has made a nice second half push to get into bowl positioning in their first season in the conference, while Washington has some fundamental basis for a drive to be in the top of the conference at some point in the near future, they are clearly not big enough, fast enough, or skilled enough to compete with the top end teams in the nation.

 

Anyway, big game weekend with the mighty clash of Oregon and Stanford. Definitely the game with the most ramifications nationally.

 

COLORADO +10 Arizona: I'm not sure the Wildcats have a lot of business being favored by dub-didje on the road against anyone.

 

USC -11 Washington: UW has won the last two meetings against the Trojans. Mid-November in the Coliseum, and history showing that it's never happened 3x.

 

UTAH -7 UCLA: Tough game to pick. Both teams are playing much better than they were a month ago. Siding with the home team, even though I really have zero inclination either way.

 

CALIFORNIA -9 Oregon St.: Cal is playing for bowl eligibility, and this is their last, best shot to get to 6 wins, since they close out @ Stanford and @ ASU.

 

Oregon -3.5 STANFORD: I wish like hell that Stanford will win this game, despite their boorish alums and my loathing of all-things Duck. Te fact is that the Cardinal haven't played anyone of note, at all, this season. An overtime win @ USC is the best win they have all year. Incidentally, that's the only game they've played where the margin is under 24 points. I'd love for Stanford to win and go on to play in the BCS title game, but as good and talented as they are on both sides of the football, I'm just not sure they're creative enough to overcome what the Ducks are going to throw at them. Totally worth watching and will likely be an incredible game, but I'm stepping out and taking the road team.

 

WASHINGTON ST. +12 Arizona St. : I have no reason either way to make this call. I'm pretty sure the state of Arizona thinks it's basketball season.

 

Looking forward to this Oregon Stanford game.

 

Though, you do go a bit overboard. If my memory serves me correctly, LSU has already dispatched of one of these teams and already, in all likelihood, knocked them out of the NC game.

[SEC=UGA]

6 minutes, eh?

[theprofessor]

Nice write up again ...

 

My picks ....

 

There's no way Colorado covers. Foles will tear up the Buffs porous secondary. Arizona in a rout 37-20.

 

As big of a husky fan I am this one's going to be tough. Can we beat SC 3 times in a row? History, as you said, say's no. A big key will be to see if Trufant can limit Woods, which nobody else has been able to do. I think the trojan's will come out fired up for this one but I still think my Dawgs will cover on the road. USC 37 UW 31

 

Utah has been playing well and UCLA is hot right now. I have to side with the Utes here to cover. No way "Slick Rick" wins the south. Utah 30 UCLA 20.

 

A must win for the Bears and they did look better last week. OSU has looked better of late and I think they cover ...... barely .... California 28 OSU 20.

 

The "real" game of the year will be played THIS weekend in Palo Alto not in Bama as the loyal SEC fans thought. Oregon and Stanford will provide more offensive fireworks in the first 6 minutes of the game then Bama and LSU showed in the entire 60 minutes last week. The key to this game will be decided by the Stanford running game. If Oregon can neutralize the Stanford running game I see them getting the upset. I think the loss of Chris Owusu is going to hurt Luck and Stanford's ability to match points with Chip Kelly's offensive juggernaut. Another year where the Pac-12 teams knock each other out of the NC race. Oregon by 10 ......... 41-31.

Pathetic performance by UW. USC owned the line of scrimmage and were much more physical than us. Polk touched the ball 10 times? Really? I wouldn't be surprised if there was a For Sale sign placed in Holt's yard last night when he arrived from the airport. No consistency on that side of the ball. Hey Holt, how long is it going to take until your squad can play hard nosed, consistent defense? Price has come down from the clouds from his amazing 5 game start. Matbe it's time we take a longer look at Montana?

 

How bad is Arizona playing right now to get beat by 19 by Colorado. Time to clean house in Tucson.

 

The Oregon game went as I thought. Luck has no real threat at WR and Oregon is just amazing on offense. When Oklahoma beats Oklahoma St the Ducks need to be in the NC discussion.

 

Utah still playing well since the Husky's beat em up at their place and UCLA is who we thought they were. ASU lost a great opportunity to win the South by losing on the road to WSU.

[theprofessor]

6 minutes, eh?

Took them awhile but ...... 83 points!

[godtomsatan]

Though, you do go a bit overboard. If my memory serves me correctly, LSU has already dispatched of one of these teams and already, in all likelihood, knocked them out of the NC game.

 

Unless Okie St. loses to OU.

 

I just don't buy the argument that Alabama would be more deserving than Oregon or Oklahoma in that case, but that's neither here nor there.

[godtomsatan]

COLORADO +10 Arizona

USC -11 Washington

UTAH -7 UCLA

CALIFORNIA -9 Oregon St.

Oregon -3.5 STANFORD

WASHINGTON ST. +12 Arizona St.

 

6-0 on the week, 41-30 on the year. It took me a long time to learn it, but stick with what you know, and the losing doesn't happen so much. (i.e., bet the conference you follow, not the MAC game of the week).

 

Home runs for me last week, and a bunch of home teams steamrolling the competition. Except for the one glaring loss by a Stanford team who clearly watered down the field in hopes it would slow the Duck offense. Instead, the grass was terrible looking on TV and the Stanford offense and defense flailed around on the ground far more than Oregon did. By the way, an Oregon-LSU rematch is far more intriguing and deserving than a Alabama-LSU rematch. With that said, go Okie St.. The fun game of the week was the late-nighter featuring 3rd string QB Connor Halliday coming off the bench for Washington St. and going for nearly 500 yds and 4 tds with no picks against ASU, including the game winning drive midway through the 4th quarter. Colorado notched it's first conference win with a resounding thump of Arizona. Lots of talk this week about who takes the Wildcat job, with Urban Meyer saying it ain't him and Mike Leach getting his name out and about (I sense Leach may end up at one of the Arizona schools, or Wazzu if they make a change).

 

Otherwise, blowouts from USC, Utah, and Cal were sort of not unexpected.

 

Washington -2 OREGON ST.: Washington is a good team that (so far) beats the teams that they are supposed to. Two blowouts to Oregon and USC, and 3 of the last four including Stanford a few weeks back make this a kind of must win to finish out the season right.

 

Utah -3.5 WASHINGTON ST.: Both teams are rolling with some momentum, and the Utes will have some film on Halliday unlike ASU last weekend. Could go either way. A Wazzu win makes for a very interesting Apple Cup Thanksgiving weekend.

 

UCLA -11 Colorado: Colorado hasn't covered a spread on the road since November of '09. 15 straight losses ATS. They haven't won a game on the road outright since October of '07. 25 straight up losses in a row on the road. Those are trends folks. Of course, a schizo Bruin team is the one that can lay the egg. Still, I'm sticking with the trends.

 

IUSC -14.5 OREGON: Doesn't make a lot of rational sense to side against the Ducks here, but USC is playing some inspired football and have been for a month or so. Not saying they'll win outright, but I'm sensing a closer game than many might think. Trojans have the athletes to stick with the Ducks at the skill position, and Monte Kiffin probably only sticks around the college game for this kind of challenge.

 

ARIZONA ST. -11 Arizona: It's rivalry week early for two programs that feel like this year was underwhelming. ASU has more talent and at least has a shot to play for the conference championship.

 

STANFORD -17.5 California: The Big Game is generally pretty memorable and/or entertaining, but I don't know why the Cardinal would suddenly start playing down to their competition when they haven't done it all year.

[godtomsatan]

Washington -2 OREGON ST.

Utah -3.5 WASHINGTON ST.

UCLA -11 Colorado

IUSC -14.5 OREGON

ARIZONA ST. -11 Arizona

STANFORD -17.5 California

 

2-4 on the week. 43-34 on the year. er

 

If you want to blame the BCS for giving us an LSU-Alabama rematch, blame Chip Kelly for dominating the 4th quarter at home against USC, driving at will down the field, and pulling up some 30 yards out without calling any of his three timeouts until there were 14 seconds left. Of course they miss the field goal. Arrogant bastard. That's why Oregon will never win anything of import, because they're in love with their system and their style to the point where it gets in the way of winning football games.

 

Otherwise, Cal made a game of the Big Game, Arizona had a nice comeback win against ASU to probably kill the Dennis Erickson era in Tempe, UCLA thumped Colorado, WSU had an incredible comeback to tie Utah in regulation before dropping it in OT, and Oregon St. laid a whipping on UW.

 

All in all, a bad week for the conference, as the best team that isn't on probation is out of the championship picture, and a close win against a rival school likely cost the other 1-loss team a shot at a top 4 spot.

 

UTAH -22 Colorado: The "rivals" have never played each other. I figure Utah, with something to play for, rolls.

 

California +6 ARIZONA ST.: I'm assuming ASU is done, but reality may be that the loser doesn't go to a bowl game, so that might be something to play for.

 

Oregon St. +27.5 OREGON: 4 TD cushion in the Civil War? I'll take the Beavs.

 

ARIZONA -14 UL-Lafayette: Really Arizona? Great scheduling, obviously the Wildcats feel their model program is in the SEC with putting up this game in November.

 

Washington St. +8.5 Washington: First neutral site Apple Cup in a generation. I'm not sure where the Huskies are at mentally after 4 thumpings in their last 5 games. I do believe the Cougs will keep it close though, as the Husky defense would have problems stopping a turtle at this point.

 

STANFORD -7 Notre Dame: I love betting against the Irish! Especially when they are getting just a TD against a top 5 caliber team on the road. Bet the farm.

 

USC -14 UCLA: The game of the week. If UCLA wins, they play for the P12 title. USC's playing real tough right now though, and don't see an energized Bruin squad keeping this too close.

[godtomsatan]

UTAH -22 Colorado

California +6 ARIZONA ST.

Oregon St. +27.5 OREGON

ARIZONA -14 UL-Lafayette

Washington St. +8.5 Washington

STANFORD -7 Notre Dame

USC -14 UCLA

 

3-4 on the week 46-38 on the year. Two backdoor covers this week by Oregon (by a half point) and ULL in Tucson.

 

A newsworthy week around the conference:

 

Colorado surprised everyone in the world by winning their first road game in 2 full years, first ATS road win in 18 tries, first S/U win in 27.

 

Cal ended Dennis Erickson's tenure at ASU, and presumably put him out to pasture for good. He was a heckuva coach for a number of years all over the place. Idaho, Wyoming, Washington St., Miami, in the NFL with Seattle and San Francisco, Idaho again, Oregon St., Arizona St.. Had a reputation here in his native Pacific Northwest for being a bit of a liar (bolted from Wazzu and Idaho rather unceremoniously), a cheat (the U in Miami went on probation after he left), and a drunk (some very public DUI's). He will also be remembered as an offensive innovator at the collegiate level who had a great deal of success with his spread offense and has an impressive list of former players he nurtured in college that include Tom Cable, Mark Schlereth, Warren Sapp, Ray Lewis, and Chad Johnson. The head man for two national titles in Miami and narrowly missing a third. He was on the sidelines for the "Wide Right" series of games with Florida St.. His teams were so overzealous, they instituted rules against excessive celebrations as a result. His last game of coaching the Seahawks was marred by a blown call by refs which ushered in the use of replay by officials on a permanent basis. The guy's been around, had a lot more ups than downs, and will be remembered for a lot of different things.

 

USC handed a pathetic UCLA squad a 50-0 nail in the coffin to Rick Neuheisel's tenure at his alma mater. I don't know if the guy can coach or not. He has an aura about him, but his team's always lack toughness. I wouldn't be surprised if he lands in the NFL somewhere. Or the broadcast booth. Nevertheless, he was classy at his press conference and still has a game to coach this weekend.....which leads me to this.....

 

OREGON -31.5 UCLA: Normally, I'd go with the team getting the 4 1/2 TDs, but since they're playing for absolutely nothing (unless you count the trip to the Rose Bowl), this first-ever Pac-12 Championship bout has the appeal of an appendectomy.

 

And the final bit of news from the left coast has to do with the Palouse and the hiring of Mike Leach at Washington St.. This is a fantastic move by the Cougs and will be a gigantic boon to the northwest rivalries with Washington, Oregon, and Oregon St.. It also gives the conference another notch in the coaching ranks. Looking forward to seeing how his offense plays out with the likes of Connor Halliday and WR Marquise Wilson in pipeline for the next few years.

 

I'm looking forward to some bowl game matchups for the conference. Oregon and Stanford should get some choice BCS matchups in the Rose and Fiesta Bowls, and Washington, Cal, and Utah should match up with some decent-ish inter-conference teams (a couple of Big12 schools and Boise St. hopefully).

[Trojanmojo]

I'm AMAZED The Cougs landed Mike Leach. I gotta tip my hat to them for an excellent hire. Can't wait to see them play Oregon in a couple years once he can get some better talent in up there and really implement his offense.

[godtomsatan]

Shoulda picked UCLA....hindsight. 46-39 going into bowls.

 

Las Vegas Bowl

Boise St. -14 Arizona St. - ASU is toast anyway, and BSU has the ax to grind.

 

Holiday Bowl

California -3.5 Texas - I may change this at some point prior to the game, but Cal comes in winning 3 of 4, Texas comes in losing 3 of 4. Kind of like what Tedford did this season to close the year out, as the Bears didn't swoon as they usually do.

 

Alamo Bowl

Washington +9 Baylor - Damn, that's a lot of points for Baylor to have. While I definitely think the Bears are probably the better squad, I feel like Washington has a bit of a chip on their shoulders with regards to performing against a quality opponent, especially on defense. Feels like a very high scoring affair that might come down to whoever makes the last stop.

 

Sun Bowl

Utah +3.5 Georgia Tech - I like the way the Utes played the second half of the season, despite the upset by Colorado to end the regular schedule. I would like to think that the ACC is not as competitive as a Pac-12 school, and we shall find out.

 

Hunger Bowl

Illinois -3 UCLA - A 6-7 team can go bowling? What's the point? And further, neither of these teams have coaches. Sopapilla gives with that? How broke is college football? Seriously. UCLA has no QB, and I thought Illinois was kind of underrated for much of the year. Who cares? I'm kind of bitter that I've made myself have to choose.

 

Rose Bowl

Oregon -6.5 Wisconsin - I'll actually root for Oregon to win their first Rose Bowl. They are probably the best football team in the country except for the dumb coach. Wisky, I feel like they're good enough to win this game, and very well could. Should be one of the more entertaining matchups during bowl season.

 

Fiesta Bowl

Oklahoma St. -3.5 Stanford - We shall see how #3 vs. #4 turns out. Kind of feel like Stanford is a real high quality squad, but not high quality enough on defense to stop this machine. Should be very high on the entertainment meter.

Edited December 7, 2011 by godtomsatan

[SEC=UGA]

Shoulda picked UCLA....hindsight. 46-39 going into bowls.

 

Las Vegas Bowl

Boise St. -14 Arizona St. - ASU is toast anyway, and BSU has the ax to grind.

 

Holiday Bowl

California -3.5 Texas - I may change this at some point prior to the game, but Cal comes in winning 3 of 4, Texas comes in losing 3 of 4. Kind of like what Tedford did this season to close the year out, as the Bears didn't swoon as they usually do.

 

Alamo Bowl

Washington +9 Baylor - Damn, that's a lot of points for Baylor to have. While I definitely think the Bears are probably the better squad, I feel like Washington has a bit of a chip on their shoulders with regards to performing against a quality opponent, especially on defense. Feels like a very high scoring affair that might come down to whoever makes the last stop.

 

Sun Bowl

Utah +3.5 Georgia Tech - I like the way the Utes played the second half of the season, despite the upset by Colorado to end the regular schedule. I would like to think that the ACC is not as competitive as a Pac-12 school, and we shall find out.

 

Hunger Bowl

Illinois -3 UCLA - A 6-7 team can go bowling? What's the point? And further, neither of these teams have coaches. Sopapilla gives with that? How broke is college football? Seriously. UCLA has no QB, and I thought Illinois was kind of underrated for much of the year. Who cares? I'm kind of bitter that I've made myself have to choose.

 

Rose Bowl

Oregon -6.5 Wisconsin - I'll actually root for Oregon to win their first Rose Bowl. They are probably the best football team in the country except for the dumb coach. Wisky, I feel like they're good enough to win this game, and very well could. Should be one of the more entertaining matchups during bowl season.

 

Fiesta Bowl

Oklahoma St. -3.5 Stanford - We shall see how #3 vs. #4 turns out. Kind of feel like Stanford is a real high quality squad, but not high quality enough on defense to stop this machine. Should be very high on the entertainment meter.

 

Utah/GT should be an interesting game to watch. The spread option that Tech runs is tough to game plane for, though since Utah has a month, rather than a week, to prepare it does make things a bit easier (see Iowa v. GT.) Teams are just not used to seeing the option game any longer and find it very difficult to even simulate it with a practice squad.

 

Conversely, Tech has a pretty decent defense, though their def secondary has been a bit shaky as of late(Murray went 19-29 for 252 and 4 TDs against Tech.) Utah, it doesn't seem to me, is going to come out with any thing that Tech hasn't seen as they appear to run a pretty balanced offense.

 

The key to this matchup all falls on the Tech offense and the Utah defense. Tech can keep Utah off the field with the option game and severely limit the number of possessions Utah gets and essential starve them of points. We'll know who is going to win this game by the end of the first quarter, my money says Tech.

 

Hope Oregon drums Wisky...

Edited December 7, 2011 by SEC=UGA

[godtomsatan]

All the winning I've done today (and on the season for that matter) made me remember I didn't bother to see how I did with these. Never did put any money down on any bowl games outside of a LSU pick'em early on.

 

Las Vegas Bowl

Boise St. -14 Arizona St.

Holiday Bowl

California -3.5 Texas

Alamo Bowl

Washington +9 Baylor

Sun Bowl

Utah +3.5 Georgia Tech

Hunger Bowl

Illinois -3 UCLA

Rose Bowl

Oregon -6.5 Wisconsin

Fiesta Bowl

Oklahoma St. -3.5 Stanford

 

Meh, 4-3. I picked some pretty early lines, and in retrospect, had I bothered to look at this prior to 3 weeks before the games, I wouldn't have picked Cal or Washington, but whatev's.

 

50-42 on the year. 54.3%. Would have made a $34.50 over the course of the year at $10 a pop.