Help QB or RB with #2 pick

[BoiseStateBroncos#1]

Need thoughts on picking a QB or RB for 2nd overall pick in a standard 12 team snake. The difference is starting line up is QB, TE, K, DE and any 5 RB or WR. With Manning out only about 4 top QB's.

[Grits and Shins]

I don't think ANY QB should be drafted in the first round. Is there something unusual about your league that would cause QBs to be drafted early?

[BeerLeagueQB]

I'd go with CJ #2 personally.

[Outshined]

Kickers score the most points. Go with Kaeding.

[bizkit34]

I would go RB. I would not draft a QB in first round

[champ48win]

I took Aaron Rodgers with my #2 pick in our PPR league last night. I saw it in another draft where all 5 of the elite QB's were gone by the 6th pick in the 2nd round. When my draft happened last night the exact same thing happened again. If I had passed on Rodgers the best QB available in the 2nd round was Matt Schaub......& that POS stuck it to me sooooo horribly last year I might have cried if I would have been stuck with him again. So IMO draft what you feel makes your team the best.

[cubdaddy]

Need thoughts on picking a QB or RB for 2nd overall pick in a standard 12 team snake. The difference is starting line up is QB, TE, K, DE and any 5 RB or WR. With Manning out only about 4 top QB's.

 

with a top 3 pick...I'm usually going RB, only consider when QBs are top point scorers (6 pt pass TDs and 1pt for every 20-25 yds)...I'd be looking at ADP, Rice and CJ2K w/ #2...then you can probably still get a solid WR1 (Nicks might slip or Jennings, Austin will be there) and if you all your top QB options are gone (vick, rogers, brady, rivers...or romo)...then go for value...sometimes RBs like Forte or Best slip or another WR1 if there is another top guy out there...you can look to strengthen your RB/WR and take a flyer on guys like Bradford or Stafford....later...

[G.K.Trey]

I took Aaron Rodgers with my #2 pick in our PPR league last night. I saw it in another draft where all 5 of the elite QB's were gone by the 6th pick in the 2nd round. When my draft happened last night the exact same thing happened again. If I had passed on Rodgers the best QB available in the 2nd round was Matt Schaub......& that POS stuck it to me sooooo horribly last year I might have cried if I would have been stuck with him again. So IMO draft what you feel makes your team the best.

 

Matt Schaub was the 7th scoring Qb in my main league last year, how did he "stick it to you" ? Drafting a qb in round 1 is stupid , having 6 taken by round 2 is completely assinine, and you and your league mates are horrible at this game.but good luck.

[bushwacked]

with a top 3 pick...I'm usually going RB, only consider when QBs are top point scorers (6 pt pass TDs and 1pt for every 20-25 yds)...

 

Big Country, clean up on aisle 4 please.

[cbs0121]

Yeah, to be honest I play in a few locals where guys tend to overpay for QBs and what tends to happen is that the 2nd tier guys fall even further than they should. No reason you can't wait until the 7th-8th round (or maybe longer if you're the last to pick a QB) and get a guy who will give you solid production. With your roster format it's especially true because you can just value pick RB/WR without any regard to positional need for the first five rounds and end up stacked.

[champ48win]

Matt Schaub was the 7th scoring Qb in my main league last year, how did he "stick it to you" ? Drafting a qb in round 1 is stupid , having 6 taken by round 2 is completely assinine, and you and your league mates are horrible at this game.but good luck.

 

Well they may be horrible at it, but me winning $1K over the past 2 years doesnt upset me in the least. My strategy has gotten me into the championship game 2 years running, so it cant be to bad now can it? FYI my league weighs QB's heavy. 6 pts/TD, 1 point per 25 yards, & .3 points per completion. So going with A Rodgers with the #2 pick in a QB heavy league is in no way a reach. In this league if you dont have 1 of the elite QB's your TOAST.

Edited September 7, 2011 by champ48win

[Big Country]

Well they may be horrible at it, but me winning $1K over the past 2 years doesnt upset me in the least. My strategy has gotten me into the championship game 2 years running, so it cant be to bad now can it? FYI my league weighs QB's heavy. 6 pts/TD, 1 point per 25 yards, & .3 points per completion. So going with A Rodgers with the #2 pick in a QB heavy league is in no way a reach. In this league if you dont have 1 of the elite QB's your TOAST.

 

 

Giving any sort of point per completion is far from "standard". So, yes, in your league, it may make sense to go QB early (don;t have time to go crunch numbers on it), but in any "standard league", with standard meaning that passing TDs are anywhere from 3-6 points, passing yardage is scored 1 pt for every 20-25 yards and only starting 1 QB, it very rarely makes mathematical sense to draft a QB early.

 

So, not going to argue whether or not it is the right strategy for your league, though based on the myopic view of your results the last two years it appears it is a good strategy, but in the context of the question posed by the OP, which stated a standard league, and given a "standard" setup as defined above, providing advice based upon YOUR leagues unique non-standard setup seems kind of worthless, don't you think?

[Grits and Shins]

Well they may be horrible at it, but me winning $1K over the past 2 years doesnt upset me in the least. My strategy has gotten me into the championship game 2 years running, so it cant be to bad now can it? FYI my league weighs QB's heavy. 6 pts/TD, 1 point per 25 yards, & .3 points per completion. So going with A Rodgers with the #2 pick in a QB heavy league is in no way a reach. In this league if you dont have 1 of the elite QB's your TOAST.

 

BTW ... it is you're

 

Can you post the YTD numbers for the top 12 QBs last year in your league?

[delusions of grandeur]

Giving any sort of point per completion is far from "standard". So, yes, in your

league, it may make sense to go QB early (don;t have time to go crunch numbers on it), but in any "standard league", with standard

meaning that passing TDs are anywhere from 3-6 points, passing yardage is scored 1 pt for every 20-25 yards and only starting 1 QB, it very

rarely makes mathematical sense to draft a QB early.

It makes even less difference than you may think... Plugging in the scoring from my 1/2PPC and 6TD league, there was only an 88 point

difference between the #1 and #12 QBs last year, accounting for about 5.5 points per game... A decent bump for the elite guys, but unless your guy ends #1 and not just top 5 even more negligible.

 

Plugging in 1/2PPR RB scoring (since you'd assume that they reward catches just the same as completions), then just from the #1 to #10 RB, you already have difference of about 139 points (about 8.6 PPG)... Then assuming that you can start st least 2 RBs (and hell, we'll even take Foster out, assuming that he's an anomaly outlier that only 1 team would get anyway), you still have a 128 point difference between the #2 RB and #24, even leaving out the top RB scorer (and that's being generous, since at #2 you will have a shot at the top RB scorer, which would net you 213 points over the RB24 = 13PPG)...

 

Even if it is truly a QB heavy league, and other players aren't rewarded for catches or carries like QBs are for completions, then I could probably still pull up statistics that say that in leagues where you can start more than 1RB, there is still an advantage in loading up on top ones there over reaching for an elite QB.

 

So what does this all mean? It means that while PPC adds to QB scoring, it also has an opposite effect of making the field deeper with plenty viable options including guys who get alot of junktime passes or make more short throws, which means that you gain a bigger advantage by securing as many of the far more scarce top RBs in your lineup as you can (not sure about WRs in this conversation, would depend on scroing/lineup requirments, but they're not really a part of this discussion when deciding who to pick at the #2 spot).

Edited September 7, 2011 by delusions of granduer

[Duchess Jack]

if the top six QBs are taken in the first couple rounds - that should only mean that you will be left with a couple studs more than you should - and when you draft a couple guys like Stafford/Kolb/Bradford later on - there should be a good chance that you'll be laughing all the way to the bank.

[Grits and Shins]

Well they may be horrible at it, but me winning $1K over the past 2 years doesnt upset me in the least. My strategy has gotten me into the championship game 2 years running, so it cant be to bad now can it? FYI my league weighs QB's heavy. 6 pts/TD, 1 point per 25 yards, & .3 points per completion. So going with A Rodgers with the #2 pick in a QB heavy league is in no way a reach. In this league if you dont have 1 of the elite QB's your TOAST.

 

Using your scoring system and last year's stats for QBs (all TDs=6, Each passing yard=.04, Each rushing yard=.1, Each completion=.3) - assuming no penalties for interceptions:

 

522.80 - Peyton Manning

516.90 - Drew Brees

 

Manning and Brees separated themselves from the rest of the pack, but are less than 3 points per game above the next three.

 

480.70 - Philip Rivers

478.20 - Tom Brady

478.08 - Aaron Rodgers

 

Rivers, Brady and Rodgers were the next grouping of QBs. They were only 3 points per game below the top tier. Getting any of those 5 would have been fine.

 

454.78 - Eli Manning

 

Eli was only 4 points per game below the top tier and 2 points per game below the 2nd tier - you probably did okay with Eli as well.