Local Draft Ignorance

[Scooby's Hubby]

We have two new owners in our local to add onto the others who already act like noobs every year. 6 QBs were taken in the first two rounds (6 pt/td, sure but still). I got Chris Johnson and Mendenhall with my first two picks. The way these guys were picking is almost embarrassing.

 

Please share your local moments. I am sure there are some doozies out there ...

[MikesVikes]

First pick in the draft? That would be Jermichael Finley. No it's not a te required league. I drafted 11 of the top 40 rbs and wrs including 4 out of 9 tier one players.

 

Ended up with

Romo, schaub

Rice mendy, Ingram, dwill, Cedric

Calvin, roddy, v jax, mike Williams, Holmes, boldin

Matt Bryant

Philly

Edited September 10, 2011 by MikesVikes

[Scooby's Hubby]

First pick in the draft? That would be Jermichael Finley. No it's not a te required league. I drafted 11 of the top 40 rbs and wrs including 4 out of 9 tier one players.

 

Ended up with

Romo, schaub

Rice mendy, Ingram, dwill, Cedric

Calvin, roddy, v jax, mike Williams, Holmes, boldin

Matt Bryant

Philly

if you are the commish of that league I bet you get alot of crap for winning . it is like robbery, almost .

[Scooby's Hubby]

The worst is the waiver wire moves ... these guys wait til the last minute and then wonder why all the good players are gone.

[loaf]

The worst is the waiver wire moves ... these guys wait til the last minute and then wonder why all the good players are gone.

yep, that's one guy in my league. Calls me every Sunday for lineup help and then wonders why I didn't call him and tell him who was available.

[Scooby's Hubby]

Scooby usually ends up feeling sorry for one of them and then helps them with their picks, while the draft is still going on. Last year she talked a guy into drafting Brandon Lloyd. Thanks alot, softee.

[bizkit34]

Would Philip Rivers with the 4 th overall pick count.....1pt/25 and 6pt/td ?

[Thews40]

We have two new owners in our local to add onto the others who already act like noobs every year. 6 QBs were taken in the first two rounds (6 pt/td, sure but still). I got Chris Johnson and Mendenhall with my first two picks. The way these guys were picking is almost embarrassing.

 

Please share your local moments. I am sure there are some doozies out there ...

I don't see picking a QB in the first two rounds as ignorant. If you check last year's top scorers for a 6 pt/ptd league, my guess is you'll see Foster and Roddy White mixed in with a line of QB's. For example:

 

1. Vick, Michael PHI QB

2. Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB

3. Rivers, Philip SDC QB

4. Manning, Peyton IND

5. Foster, Arian HOU RB

6. Brees, Drew NOS QB

7. Brady, Tom NEP QB

8. White, Roddy ATL WR

9. Schaub, Matt

10. Manning, Eli NYG QB

 

If the delta between a top 6 QB is 100 points from the #13, then making up that difference requires some excellent choices at RB and WR. If back up QB's are taken before some teams take their QB1, there will be teams starting Cutler every other week in a mix of waiver wire QB's in favorable match-ups that will miss more than hit.

 

Out of curiosity, who were the QB's on the teams that placed in the top 4 in this league? Who was the QB that won it for the superbowl team? My guess is Vick, and while you could argue Vick wasn't even drafted, this was an anomaly. The other three (in the top 4) probably had one of the top 6 QB's.

 

The "experts" advice to wait on a QB assumes they are correct. While your stud RB on a crappy team may hit most of the time, a stud QB will usually toss at least two TD's. That 4 point delta warrants the higher pick, and when three TD's equal an extra 6, your stud RB will need to score a TD to cover.

Edited September 10, 2011 by Thews40

[SecondString]

Auction draft, $100 cap, somebody spent $16 on the Pittsburg D, somebody else spent $24 on Gates.

[skinsfan827]

I don't see picking a QB in the first two rounds as ignorant. If you check last year's top scorers for a 6 pt/ptd league, my guess is you'll see Foster and Roddy White mixed in with a line of QB's. For example:

 

1. Vick, Michael PHI QB

2. Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB

3. Rivers, Philip SDC QB

4. Manning, Peyton IND

5. Foster, Arian HOU RB

6. Brees, Drew NOS QB

7. Brady, Tom NEP QB

8. White, Roddy ATL WR

9. Schaub, Matt

10. Manning, Eli NYG QB

 

If the delta between a top 6 QB is 100 points from the #13, then making up that difference requires some excellent choices at RB and WR. If back up QB's are taken before some teams take their QB1, there will be teams starting Cutler every other week in a mix of waiver wire QB's in favorable match-ups that will miss more than hit.

 

Out of curiosity, who were the QB's on the teams that placed in the top 4 in this league? Who was the QB that won it for the superbowl team? My guess is Vick, and while you could argue Vick wasn't even drafted, this was an anomaly. The other three (in the top 4) probably had one of the top 6 QB's.

 

The "experts" advice to wait on a QB assumes they are correct. While your stud RB on a crappy team may hit most of the time, a stud QB will usually toss at least two TD's. That 4 point delta warrants the higher pick, and when three TD's equal an extra 6, your stud RB will need to score a TD to cover.

 

You're the kind of fantasy footballer that this post is about

[Thews40]

You're the kind of fantasy footballer that this post is about

How many SB's have you won?

[TheCMB]

I agree that drafting top-flight quarterbacks (one of the top 5 this year IMO), even in the first 2 rounds, is a good strategy. Scoring systems makes a huge difference....for example - 6pts for passing TD's, a lineup with no FLEX (only start 2 RB's and 2 WR's), and bonus points for long-distance TD's (QB's get more of those than anyone else).

 

You can have your 2nd round RB - MJD, Peyton Hillis, S-Jax, even DMC...... gimme Brees or Rivers any day.

[Deathpig]

The primary league I've been playing in for 12 years is a 6pt passing TD league (12 teams), and people take QBs in the first round every year and I still don't understand why. Outside of that particular QB having a redonkulous season, the QB isn't the actual driver for the fantasy team's success.

 

The reason why is actually pretty simple...

 

Real NFL teams employ 32 starting QBs. Our league will draft 12 starting QBs. Let's say each team drafts a backup-- that's 24 QBs total drafted, meaning the 8 worst QBs in the league aren't even on a roster. I won the league last year with a Frankensteinian monster of Orton/Tebow/Kitna.

 

Real NFL teams employ 32 starting RBs, and most teams now use CoP/3D backs. Our league will draft 24 starting RBs and 48+ RBs. With injuries and bye weeks and everything else (Shanahan), people end up starting their 3rd+ option at RB during the season more frequently than they'd like, and that option is likely not one of the top 32 RB options in the NFL.

 

 

So the real reason why early QB picks are risky is that the opportunity cost of the QB pick is way too high unless you magically hit an upper echelon QB having a career year (and good luck to you predicting that at the draft). My Frankenstein QB pupu platter will achieve closer scores to a top QB than someone desperately starting a lower tier RB will get to a top RB.

[Avernus]

I don't see picking a QB in the first two rounds as ignorant. If you check last year's top scorers for a 6 pt/ptd league, my guess is you'll see Foster and Roddy White mixed in with a line of QB's. For example:

 

1. Vick, Michael PHI QB

2. Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB

3. Rivers, Philip SDC QB

4. Manning, Peyton IND

5. Foster, Arian HOU RB

6. Brees, Drew NOS QB

7. Brady, Tom NEP QB

8. White, Roddy ATL WR

9. Schaub, Matt

10. Manning, Eli NYG QB

 

If the delta between a top 6 QB is 100 points from the #13, then making up that difference requires some excellent choices at RB and WR. If back up QB's are taken before some teams take their QB1, there will be teams starting Cutler every other week in a mix of waiver wire QB's in favorable match-ups that will miss more than hit.

 

Out of curiosity, who were the QB's on the teams that placed in the top 4 in this league? Who was the QB that won it for the superbowl team? My guess is Vick, and while you could argue Vick wasn't even drafted, this was an anomaly. The other three (in the top 4) probably had one of the top 6 QB's.

 

The "experts" advice to wait on a QB assumes they are correct. While your stud RB on a crappy team may hit most of the time, a stud QB will usually toss at least two TD's. That 4 point delta warrants the higher pick, and when three TD's equal an extra 6, your stud RB will need to score a TD to cover.

 

I think you are partially correct but go from one extreme to another...in my local draft I waited to take a QB until the 7th round when everyone else had a starting QB and was probably ready to start taking backups....Schaub was sitting there and I gladly took him....the team with Rodgers at QB has Felix and Grant at RB along with Roddy and VJax at WR....

 

I managed to grab AJ, Mendy, Austin, Blount, Witten etc. and rounded off a better starting lineup rather than to take a QB high because there isn't as much of a dropoff at QB until a certain point like there is at the other positions....and I still grabbed a QB within that range and scooped up Eli as well to back him up....

 

the trick is to not wait until too late to pick up a QB....

[panhead55]

You're the kind of fantasy footballer that this post is about

I had to chuckle when Skinsfan suggested you belong in the title group "draft ignorant".

 

Thews is one of the most insightfull, tenacious, and innovative fantasy ballers I've played against in my 25 years of fantasy.

[detlef]

I don't see picking a QB in the first two rounds as ignorant. If you check last year's top scorers for a 6 pt/ptd league, my guess is you'll see Foster and Roddy White mixed in with a line of QB's. For example:

 

1. Vick, Michael PHI QB

2. Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB

3. Rivers, Philip SDC QB

4. Manning, Peyton IND

5. Foster, Arian HOU RB

6. Brees, Drew NOS QB

7. Brady, Tom NEP QB

8. White, Roddy ATL WR

9. Schaub, Matt

10. Manning, Eli NYG QB

 

If the delta between a top 6 QB is 100 points from the #13, then making up that difference requires some excellent choices at RB and WR. If back up QB's are taken before some teams take their QB1, there will be teams starting Cutler every other week in a mix of waiver wire QB's in favorable match-ups that will miss more than hit.

 

Out of curiosity, who were the QB's on the teams that placed in the top 4 in this league? Who was the QB that won it for the superbowl team? My guess is Vick, and while you could argue Vick wasn't even drafted, this was an anomaly. The other three (in the top 4) probably had one of the top 6 QB's.

 

The "experts" advice to wait on a QB assumes they are correct. While your stud RB on a crappy team may hit most of the time, a stud QB will usually toss at least two TD's. That 4 point delta warrants the higher pick, and when three TD's equal an extra 6, your stud RB will need to score a TD to cover.

Your list, and the fact that guys like Schaub and Eli Manning, both of whom are types you can wait on are on it. Plus the likelihood that 6 of the next 10 are also probably QBs, explains why you wait.

 

The notion of loading up on RBs and WRs early is not dependent on being right, it's aim to increase your chances of being right. Few would argue that, even if the odds aren't "can't miss" with 1st and 2nd round RBs and WRs, that they're far greater than what they are with guys drafted later. Meanwhile, history has shown that you can grab a QB late that will very likely end up among the top 15-20 overall scorers for the league. Because there's 32 guys in the league who touch the ball on virtually every offensive play and based on your league size only 12 or so of them have to be good. So, that's why people load up on the positions that are total crap-shoots later in the draft at positions where 24 or more of them need to be worth starting.

 

And that is why.

[Scooby's Hubby]

I get the QB arguement, but I will say they did not go in your order at all. Brees, Rodgers, Vick, Rivers, Romo, Brady ... all before the first 17 picks of the draft, so really before 2 rounds were up (12 team league).

[rajncajn]

We have two new owners in our local to add onto the others who already act like noobs every year. 6 QBs were taken in the first two rounds (6 pt/td, sure but still). I got Chris Johnson and Mendenhall with my first two picks. The way these guys were picking is almost embarrassing.

 

Please share your local moments. I am sure there are some doozies out there ...

We had 7 QBs in the first two rounds and we only get 4 pts per td. Some teams also took a 2nd QB before they could field a full offensive lineup. I ended up taking Stafford in the 7th & Kolb in the 9th. I also nabbed Collins in FA. The worst pick of the draft though was Toby Gerhart at 5.6 and he wasn't even the Peterson owner.

[detlef]

Julio Jones went 3.4 in one of my drafts. Before Greg Jennings, Frank Gore, Vincent Jackson, and a ton of other players obviously.

[neilfish2]

Bonehead Trade & Pick - performance 3 keeper (must be different positions) this guy keeps a QB, WR, & TE. He really didn't have any RB on his roster worth keeping.

 

So a day before the draft he trades his QB J. Freeman for M. Schaub, his TE A. Gates for J. Finley - so far so good for him..IMO

 

The he switches his draft order - swaps his #1 and drops to #3 - remember he did not keep a RB - and this year A. Peterson was avaliable. Now the trade is not so good.

 

This is a 12 team league and most teams have kept a top notch starting RB - Top 3 avaliable: Peterson, Mendenhall, F. Jones...

 

So with his 1st pick he selects - T. Brady - okay he is a top QB, but you already have one with Schaub...

[Thews40]

I get the QB arguement, but I will say they did not go in your order at all. Brees, Rodgers, Vick, Rivers, Romo, Brady ... all before the first 17 picks of the draft, so really before 2 rounds were up (12 team league).

What QB's did you get and when did you draft them?

 

I'm not real big on Romo this year, as I think Schaub or Big Ben will equal his stats, but the others are all good picks IMO. Again, when you look at the delta between the RB/WR you did get by passing up the QB, the delta between the bottom tier QB and the RB/WR you could have waited a round to get has to be matched to cover. Strategerie is based on a plan and scoring systems play a big part it. If a heavily weighted defensive scoring system put defenses in the top 20, having GB or Pitt is worth a higher pick IMO, because you just go with them every week and it frees up roster spots. Being able to pick up the team that plays the Bengals every week sounds good on paper, but you won't be the only one onto this.

 

Let's say you took Rivers in the second round and passed on Gore or S.Jackson. If you can get Bradshaw or Blount with your next pick, what's the delta between the two? In a three TD passing game by Rivers, your stud RB/WR has to score an extra TD to cover the extra 6 points. Conversely, if you took Gore and wound up with Josh Freeman or Matt Ryan, the delta may be the same, but waiting too long and winding up with Eli or Bradford could make the delta between the three actual choices much larger, and more inconsistent. A stud QB is money in the bank if they're healthy (goes without saying for every position), but there's only a few select teams that have the combined offensive talent to produce consistently. Pair that up with a suspect defense (Colts for example in years past), and the offense has to carry the team = FF points.

 

It's all a crapshoot when it comes to this year's stats, but a secondary point is just how consistent are the stud QB's vs. the stud WR/RB and how prone to injury are they?

[detlef]

What QB's did you get and when did you draft them?

 

I'm not real big on Romo this year, as I think Schaub or Big Ben will equal his stats, but the others are all good picks IMO. Again, when you look at the delta between the RB/WR you did get by passing up the QB, the delta between the bottom tier QB and the RB/WR you could have waited a round to get has to be matched to cover. Strategerie is based on a plan and scoring systems play a big part it. If a heavily weighted defensive scoring system put defenses in the top 20, having GB or Pitt is worth a higher pick IMO, because you just go with them every week and it frees up roster spots. Being able to pick up the team that plays the Bengals every week sounds good on paper, but you won't be the only one onto this.

 

Let's say you took Rivers in the second round and passed on Gore or S.Jackson. If you can get Bradshaw or Blount with your next pick, what's the delta between the two? In a three TD passing game by Rivers, your stud RB/WR has to score an extra TD to cover the extra 6 points. Conversely, if you took Gore and wound up with Josh Freeman or Matt Ryan, the delta may be the same, but waiting too long and winding up with Eli or Bradford could make the delta between the three actual choices much larger, and more inconsistent. A stud QB is money in the bank if they're healthy (goes without saying for every position), but there's only a few select teams that have the combined offensive talent to produce consistently. Pair that up with a suspect defense (Colts for example in years past), and the offense has to carry the team = FF points.

 

It's all a crapshoot when it comes to this year's stats, but a secondary point is just how consistent are the stud QB's vs. the stud WR/RB and how prone to injury are they?

First off, you don't wait on team D because they don't score enough. You wait on them because it's a total crap shoot from one year to the next. Sure, you can pick GB and Pitt because they have talent on their Ds, but that may simply translate into a lot of 3 and outs. Which is great for the team, but doesn't do you a lick of good. Last year it was NE and AZ that went 1 and 2. AZ. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess they weren't drafted by anyone. Oh, and they certainly didn't go high this year either.

 

Secondly, you singled out Eli as a guy that waiting on a QB may end up getting you stuck with, yet he was among the 6 guys you listed that finished in the top 10 overall last year. Sounds like getting stuck with him last year wasn't such a bad deal.

 

None the less, like I said in my earlier post. Sure, early round QBs stand a better chance of being solid starters than early round RBs and WRs. But so do later round QBs. Only, a later round QB stands a far better chance of being good than the later round RB/WR.

 

So, if you take an early round QB, you're getting basically a sure thing as opposed to a RB/WR who is maybe a 70% chance guy of being a solid starter. However, if you wait a bit and take a QB, you're still getting a guy who is very, very likely of being a solid starter as opposed to a RB/WR who historically has a very slim chance.

 

I'll take the reasonably good bet RB/WR plus the very good bet QB as opposed to the sure thing QB plus the slim chance RB/WR.

[Scorcher]

New guy in a keeper league with first pick: kept Stafford and GB defense, drafted P Manning with first pick..................and "No" it wasn't me!

Edited September 10, 2011 by Scorcher

[Tyler]

In a new league started by a buddy this year my dad (I love him but, fantasy football is not a strength) ended up with 3 defenses, 2 kickers and only 3 runningbacks. Roster size is 16. To make matters worse he spent more then $1 on every defense and kicker he bid on. Oh and for desert he spent close to $20 on Shiancoe.

[ChampSampson]

Never complain about having huge edges over your opponent. Trust me, in about 1-2 years they'll be reading the same rhetoric as you and stealing your picks. Its fun to win and money buys nice stuff. Don't tap the tank.