Is Chad Henne legit?

[MTSuper7]

Just wondering opinions about Henne... He had a nice game last week, and the Dolphins offense looks pass heavy, which has me wondering if Henne is a high upside backup or not. I hate to snap to judgment after one week, and nobody seems to be talking about Henne's performance which is curious. Is the thought here that once Daniel Thomas is back in the lineup they won't be nearly so pass heavy? They were pretty pass heavy in goal to go situations last week... Think that trend continues?

[loaf]

I think you're looking at the makings of a very good year for Henne. Brian Daboll had Colt McCoy starting to emerge last year in his offense, and it's conservative but imaginative when need be. Look at how the Browns beat NE last year. I drafted Henne as my backup in 2 leagues and am actually starting him over Matty Ice this week.

Daniels is a liability in pass protection so when they get to goal to go and he's there, you know it's a run. But how they get down there will be a lot of Henne.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/sports/dolphi...pe=rss_dolphins

In his limited pre-season work, Henne showed that in his fourth season - and third as starter - he might have finally figured it out, posting a 93.4 passer rating and throwing for as many touchdowns as interceptions (two).

 

"It's definitely getting us into the right plays at all times," Henne said of the offense.

 

Daboll said Henne has been "exceptional in the classroom" and has done a good job taking those lessons to the field.

Edited September 16, 2011 by loaf

[Chavez]

Bill Barnwell thinks there are indicators showing Henne might be in position to step up

 

By most statistical measures, Henne actually improved during his second season as a starter. His completion percentage rose. His touchdown pass percentage went up. His yards per attempt traveled north. The only notable measure in which he declined was on interceptions. Henne threw 19 interceptions on 490 attempts, meaning he threw picks on 3.9 percent of his passes. That's too high, but it's likely to come down. Since 1990, there have been 36 times when a quarterback threw 400 passes or more in consecutive seasons and had an interception rate between 3.6 percent and 4.2 percent in the first year, which is the range in which Henne's percentage falls. In the second season, those quarterbacks threw interceptions on 2.9 percent of their passes. At that 2.9 percent rate, Henne would throw just 14 interceptions on those 490 attempts if he took them again in 2011.

 

Furthermore, there's another reason to believe that Henne was unlucky in 2010. The Football Outsiders Almanac 2011 notes that Henne had just one dropped interception last season. That was the lowest total in the league amongst quarterbacks with 400 attempts. For reference, his fellow starting quarterbacks in the AFC East averaged more than eight dropped picks each. Defenders will drop a few of Henne's would-be interceptions this year, which should help cut down on his pick rate.

 

If there's any obvious comparison to be made for Henne's early career path, it's Drew Brees. I know. Hear me out on this one. They're both undersized2 second-round picks from the Big Ten. They both sat out for most of their rookie season and then came in to play for most of their second year. Brees completed 60.8 percent of his passes. Henne completed 60.8 percent of his passes. Brees threw an interception on 3.0 percent of his passes and averaged 6.2 yards per attempt. Henne threw an interception on 3.1 percent of his passes and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt. In his third season, Brees tanked; in fact, to a much worse extent than Henne did. All of his numbers fell off, but what was particularly noticeable was his interception rate, which hit 4.2 percent. And unlike the Dolphins, the Chargers actually went through and pulled the trigger on replacing Brees by drafting Eli Manning and then trading him for Philip Rivers. There's no guarantee that Henne will follow that career path, but it's something to think about amidst wave after wave of hysterics about how Henne isn't an NFL starter.

Edited September 16, 2011 by Chavez

[lennykravitz2004]

I've bought in. Dropped Orton for Henne when WW opened this week to back up Vick on my roster.

[lkirc]

I wasn't as impressed with Henne last week as most. His stats were better than his play. His bad throws were really bad. Sometimes he just threw the ball 10 feet over his receiver's heads or didn't seem to know what route they were running. This happened multiple times with Marshall in the red zone. He just doesn't pass the eyeball test for me. I think an inconsistent QB is a fantasy team killer. I don't think Henne will be easy to rely on this year.

 

Now watch him go out and throw for 4000 yards and 35 TDS......

[MTSuper7]

I wasn't as impressed with Henne last week as most. His stats were better than his play. His bad throws were really bad. Sometimes he just threw the ball 10 feet over his receiver's heads or didn't seem to know what route they were running. This happened multiple times with Marshall in the red zone. He just doesn't pass the eyeball test for me. I think an inconsistent QB is a fantasy team killer. I don't think Henne will be easy to rely on this year.

 

Now watch him go out and throw for 4000 yards and 35 TDS......

 

I noticed the inconsistency too with Marshall and in the red zone. But just the sheer fact that the offense seems to be pass first, and the fact that Henne put up 400+ and 3 total TDs (and I'll take 50+ yards rushing any time from a QB). Dude made some plays. And even though he was pretty focused on Marshall, he did hit Bess, Fasano, Bush, Hartline, etc. too. The biggest thing for me is that I don't have faith that Daniel Thomas is going to be an answer at RB, so if Reggie Bush remains the primary guy in the backfield, they are going to throw out of necessity. I'll be interested to see how he looks the next couple weeks, but I didn't see anything boneheaded last week (inconsistent at times, yeah, but no really dumb decisions which is important).

[overworkedirish]

I've watched Henne's play closely for the last two years. Obviously there's some degree of bias because I want to see him do well, but I can say with confidence that this Week 1 was not a one-hit wonder - he's had good games in the past, but his problem has been bringing that game consistently. I've seen a change in his decision-making, his progressions, his speed, and MOST importantly with the play-calling of Brian Daboll over Dan Henning (including Henne's newly granted ability to audible on his own).

 

Last year Henne was constantly taken out mid-drive on 2nd and 10s for Wildcat formations (getting the Fins nowhere), then put back in to save the day on 3rd and longs, where Henning would call PLAY-ACTIONS. It was disastrous for his confidence, and also for his stats because defenses knew what to expect from such a stagnant, out-dated, and predictable offense.

 

Henne was voted a team captain this year - for the first time. To me this shows the team is buying in to his abilities, and as a fan I am on the same page. Despite my belief that the Dolphins will be no better than the 9-7 range in 2011 (likely less if the defense doesn't get it together), I think Henne will still be in South Beach in 2012 and will be a solid fantasy backup who truly shines in good match-ups.

Edited September 16, 2011 by overworkedirish

[JUMbotron]

He passes my eye test. He did last year.

 

The question isn't "Is Henne legit?" it's ....

Is his schedule legit? vs HOU, @CLE, @SD, @NYJ, vs DEN, @NE, @KC, vs WAS, vs BUF, @DAL ..Rough spots but many iffy secondaries.. Legit.

Are his weapons legit? Reggie Bush, Brandon Marshall, Davone Bess, Anthony Fasano, Brian Hartline .. As long as Marshall's out there.. Legit.

Is his O-line legit? Henne sacked 4 times, hit 11 times overall. Take out Henne's (surprisingly good) scrambling and they avg 3 per carry. Not Legit.

[Tripleshot]

You can say his bad throws last week were really bad, but he still put up 400+ yards and spread the ball around to all of his playmakers. He ran the ball well when he had to. All I've read about him in preseason was about how sharp he looked. And then the first game back he goes off, albeit in a behind all game had to pass setting. He will get things figured out in the red zone(when he realizes just how damn big Marshall is, just throws the ball his way and lets him go get it). I'm buying in too, he's more legit than fluke.

[Goopster24]

I hope I don't regret choosing Rex Grossman as my backup to Henne...

[Duchess Jack]

I didn't see many bad balls thrown. I saw accuracy and velosity. I also saw quick decision making. His one pick happened because he was rushed. They didn't have a time out, the clock was ticking down and they needed to get a play off. I forgive him for that one. And I think there was a picked dropped.

 

His overthrows were either not too bad or closer to throwing the ball away than it was being crazy inaccurate.

 

I am trying to keep level with his performance, but I was really impressed. What Henne did isn't something that you can fake.

Edited September 16, 2011 by Duchess Jack

[Shorttynaz]

I hope I don't regret choosing Rex Grossman as my backup to Henne...

I'm almost in the same boat. I have Sheli and Henne. Eli's offense is a mess this season. Before it's too late, I'm contemplating droping Sheli for Grossman.