gbpackersfan Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 What players do you currently think are good "sell high" options? I honestly think that I have 3 of these players right now. Wes Welker - No chance that he continues at this pace. (Averaging 9-148-1) Hes a great wr on a top passing offense, but with Hernandez back, Brady just has too many options. I see his stats coming down to around an average of 6-85 with an occasional td. Calvin Johnson - Phenominal talent, but obviously he isnt going to score 2tds every game. Beanie Wells - Eventually teams will start realizing that the Cardinals cant throw and will just keep stacking the box. And he cant play a full 16 game schedule, right? Am I wrong about these guys? And who are your "sell high" candidates? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrTed46 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I sold high last year on Foster on the whole "he cant keep this up" idea and I'm pretty sure it cost me championship. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bostonsoxandy Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I think your underestimating Welker and Megatron. If you own one of those 2 I don't see how it's possible to trade them. They are doing so amazing, and its very naive to just say, well they can't keep doing that when there are no real stats to support that...I know if I owned Megatron or Welker I am certainly NOT trying to trade them right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Croe Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I wouldn't drop Welker or Calvin. Even if they can't keep the pace they are on, they will still produce very well. I mean, who right now is better than either of those two? On the other hand, I think that Wells is a good sell high candidate. If you're lucky you may be able to get MJD or Michael Turner. Keep in mind though that there maybe a lot of guys who think Wells is just having a fluke great start Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbpackersfan Posted October 10, 2011 Author Share Posted October 10, 2011 Well, if I was confident in my team I probably wouldnt consider trading them. But when I have no flex spot and no one on my bench worth starting, its definitely time to consider "selling high" and getting some good value in return. Bye weeks are going to be murder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bostonsoxandy Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I wouldn't drop Welker or Calvin. Even if they can't keep the pace they are on, they will still produce very well. I mean, who right now is better than either of those two? On the other hand, I think that Wells is a good sell high candidate. If you're lucky you may be able to get MJD or Michael Turner. Keep in mind though that there maybe a lot of guys who think Wells is just having a fluke great start I'd say that 99% of the fantasy world believes this to some extent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I think your underestimating Welker and Megatron. If you own one of those 2 I don't see how it's possible to trade them. They are doing so amazing, and its very naive to just say, well they can't keep doing that when there are no real stats to support that...I know if I owned Megatron or Welker I am certainly NOT trying to trade them right now. Exactly. I don't think anyone expects either Welker or CJ to keep this pace up. How could they? No, CJ is not going to catch 32 TDs. But that doesn't mean they won't continue to be top-rate WR options. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I'd say that 99% of the fantasy world believes this to some extent. Yep, he's got two guys on that list that he'd be a fool to trade for almost anyone and one player who will continue to be undervalued regardless of what numbers he's putting up. And I'll be the first to admit that I'm among those who feel that way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbpackersfan Posted October 10, 2011 Author Share Posted October 10, 2011 Chris Johnson couldn't maintain his pace for 2000 yards so he was a good sell high. Oh wait, he did. I dont think thats quite as unrealistic as Calvins pace of 32tds and Welkers pace for 144-2400-16. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbpackersfan Posted October 10, 2011 Author Share Posted October 10, 2011 (edited) I was just saying they are good sell high options because you can trade them for practically anything right now. I could probably trade Welker for a rb1 and a decent wr2, giving me some depth. Which is the whole point of trading a guy while hes hot to make your team even better in other positions. Which as you can see, my flex spot is awful and I have no bench. Edited October 10, 2011 by gbpackersfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Victor Cruz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I was just saying they are good sell high options because you can trade them for practically anything right now. I could probably trade Welker for a rb1 and a decent wr2, giving me some depth. Which is the whole point of trading a guy while hes hot to make your team even better in other positions. Which as you can see, my flex spot is awful and I have no bench. That's not selling high though, that's selling a likely top 3 player for a #1 pricetag.. Fine if you wanna do that, but there's no indication you're selling them at a peak beyond their true value. If they continue to put up gaudy numbers (big IF, but not unreasonable), their value could actually go even higher... I mean, yes, most people can see that they can’t keep up their current pace (no one in the history of the NFL has ever come close to the pace they’re on), but all that means is it’s unlikely that they’ll absolutely shatter all-time fantasy records. They might simply beat them by a smaller margin, or just be the best players at their position this year…. But nobody is going to complain if they come down to earth a little bit and still finish #1, or even top 3, and I don't see the perception of their value dropping from where it is now.... With sell-highs, you’re looking for guys who are likely to completely come down to earth, not guys like them, who’ve proven to have tremendously high floors as well.... I would have been selling high on Buffalo receivers before this week, and I guess Nelson might be the one you could still maybe do so with… I just knew it’d be a recipe for fantasy inconsistency when you’ve got 3 guys (Johnson, Nelson, Chandler) who derive a good bit of their value from red-zone target. As good as Fitzpatrick has been, he isn’t going to throw 3 or 4 TDs a lot of weeks. Not sure who else, because if you got consistent or high scorers right now, I'd be hesitant to sell them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giantsfan Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Exactly. I don't think anyone expects either Welker or CJ to keep this pace up. How could they? No, CJ is not going to catch 32 TDs. But that doesn't mean they won't continue to be top-rate WR options. I agree. Will Calvin catch 32 TD's, of course not, but will he still be a top level fantasy WR from today forward, and have a great shot at 17/18 TD's, yes IMO. Great schedule. Bunch of indoor games (3 road games and only 1 home game thus far). Very good talent around him to keep D's somewhat honest. I wouldn't sell Calvin unless I got just a ridiculous package. Welker I am a little more open on. NE has a ton of weapons. They have some real tough games left. And most importantly they have the elements of cold and wind to contend with as we move forward here. Not saying I'd deal him for anything less than a lock # 1 RB, but I would be more inclinded to deal him then Calvin all things being equal (can't factor in injury risk IMO). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I was just saying they are good sell high options because you can trade them for practically anything right now. I could probably trade Welker for a rb1 and a decent wr2, giving me some depth. Which is the whole point of trading a guy while hes hot to make your team even better in other positions. Which as you can see, my flex spot is awful and I have no bench. But it still wouldn't be "selling high". Nobody thinks that CJ is going to score 32 TDs, nor do they think that Welker is going to continue the pace he's on. However, it is entirely likely that both reward whatever team ends up with them with great stats the rest of the season. What do you really think you'll get for Welker? Do you really think someone gives you a RB1 that is a legit RB1, not a guy like McGehee who happens to be putting up top 10 numbers right now, in addition to a truly viable starter at WR? For instance, do you think you can get Ray Rice and a good WR? I highly doubt it. I'd doubt you could get a true RB1 straight up for him. Because he's a little smurf that will always be undervalued. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbpackersfan Posted October 10, 2011 Author Share Posted October 10, 2011 In a ppr league, Im extremely confident that I could get a true rb1 for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I was just saying they are good sell high options because you can trade them for practically anything right now. I could probably trade Welker for a rb1 and a decent wr2, giving me some depth. Which is the whole point of trading a guy while hes hot to make your team even better in other positions. Which as you can see, my flex spot is awful and I have no bench. Welker and Calvin are both like stud RB's...you pretty much have 3 stud's between those two and AP... I would consider moving one of them for something like Roddy White and a very good RB though....if you could...because I think Roddy has an amazing 2nd half of the season coming up..but that's just an example... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 (edited) In a ppr league, Im extremely confident that I could get a true rb1 for him. Be that as it may, you're still talking about "trade bait" or trading for need. I could go down the list of the top players in the league right now, and say I could sell Rice, I could sell Foster, I could sell Rodgers, but that doesn't make them sell-highs. When you talk about "the whole point of trading a guy while hes hot to make your team even better in other positions", that is trading for need, not selling high, unless you're confident the guy won't continue anywhere close to his current ADP. That's specific to your team whether that's the right move or not, but there's no reason to discuss guys who have a great chance of retaining their value as sell-high candidates. Beanie, on the other hand, yes I'd agree may be a good sell-high candidate, but even he doesn't have a lot of competition to take his carries away and is playing much better than the old Beanie. Edited October 10, 2011 by delusions of granduer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I made a trade Saturday night that may have worked out better than expected but that's yet to be determined. I gave: Julio Jones & Tim Hightower I got: Victor Cruz & Javid Best Obviously the 'trade' here was basically Julio for Best. With Julio tweaking his Hammy, on the surface this trade looks great. We'll see how Best does tonight. I was stacked at WR and needed an upgrade at RB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loaf Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 in one league I'm in, Megatron + Michael Bush were traded for McFadden on Thursday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flemingd Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 And the thread degenerates into "I made this trade" in 3 ... 2 ... oh crap, never mind, too late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flemingd Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 On topic, I think Matthews is a good sell-high unless Tolbert is out for an extended period. If Gates comes back and/or Floyd gets kicking and/or we have a Vincent Brown sighting (I am kinda surprised we haven't yet) there isn't going to be the same volume of work going to the RB's. Matthews is dependent on getting the (slightly) larger share of a very big pie to maintain pace - if that pie shrinks so could his output. The Chargers are clearly committed to using Tolbert, especially at the goal line, and that hurts Matthews' high-end potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nelsosi Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 If someone wanted to trade me Calvin I'd be buying. I think 20-25 tds is absolutely possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 In a ppr league, Im extremely confident that I could get a true rb1 for him. What, someone like Foster, Forte or Rice? I doubt it. I say that because the number of true #1 RBs is low since RBBC is present now in the majority of teams. Even someone like McFadden gives way at the goal line. If you've got one of the RBs that is the main man and the goal line man, you're hanging on to him, I think. Anyone trading away a real #1 RB won't be able to replace him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bostonsoxandy Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Clearly the OP doesn't know the difference between selling a player high and simply trading........ Selling high would be where a player has severely outperformed what anyone ever expected of them and then they are traded away at peak value where it can be expected they decline sharply in the future. Calvin Johnson and Wes Welker ARE NOT examples of this. Why? Because there is no reason to expect either to decrease significantly in their production. They are in great situations, have put up good #'s in the past, talented etc. Basically they are for real. An example of a sell high like someone mentioned would be Victor Cruz. He has had a few beastly weeks but you surely can't expect him to continue anywhere near that because Manningham has been injured/playing terribly for the last couple of weeks, and if Manningham returns to his usual self (which he probably will) Cruz won't get much of anything. Do you see the difference? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markgugs Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 With sell-highs, you’re looking for guys who are likely to completely come down to earth, not guys like them, who’ve proven to have tremendously high floors as well.... well said I was going to point out that the OP doesn't seem to understand what "sell high" means Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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