yilduz Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 There is the sell high thread, but for those of us in dynasty leagues on a 1-4 start, who should be targeted at a low price in starting the rebuilding process? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delfamdelfam Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 TampaMike: he hasn't done much, but he's getting 8+ targets a game, that has to turn into something eventually, right? Tolbert: Mathews always has some slight injury and Tolbert will get goal-line carries, with a bye week coming he's a good buy low Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LB49ers Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 TampaMike: he hasn't done much, but he's getting 8+ targets a game, that has to turn into something eventually, right?Tolbert: Mathews always has some slight injury and Tolbert will get goal-line carries, with a bye week coming he's a good buy low TB Mike is getting worse and worse with every passing week, I dont see much from him especially considering Freeman isn't all that good anyways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 TampaMike: he hasn't done much, but he's getting 8+ targets a game, that has to turn into something eventually, right?Tolbert: Mathews always has some slight injury and Tolbert will get goal-line carries, with a bye week coming he's a good buy low You're kidding right? So what you are saying is that he has at least 40 targets through 5 games. And the + indicates possibly more? I'm I right in this assumption? Well...unless he had 12+ targets yesterday, I think your guess is a tad off. As of pre-game yesterday, he has 28 targets. Might wanna brush up on your stats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delfamdelfam Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 You're kidding right? So what you are saying is that he has at least 40 targets through 5 games. And the + indicates possibly more? I'm I right in this assumption? Well...unless he had 12+ targets yesterday, I think your guess is a tad off. As of pre-game yesterday, he has 28 targets. Might wanna brush up on your stats. week 5: 9 week 4: 8 week 3: 8 week 2: 0 week 1: 10 so yes, other than week 2, he's had 8+ targets every week. For someone as talented as Williams if he's getting those kinds of targets he's a good buy low candidate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPats Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 week 5: 9week 4: 8 week 3: 8 week 2: 0 week 1: 10 so yes, other than week 2, he's had 8+ targets every week. For someone as talented as Williams if he's getting those kinds of targets he's a good buy low candidate. Rotoworld has his target total for the year at 39 (unofficially). He still only catches 50% though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 (edited) week 5: 9week 4: 8 week 3: 8 week 2: 0 week 1: 10 so yes, other than week 2, he's had 8+ targets every week. For someone as talented as Williams if he's getting those kinds of targets he's a good buy low candidate. And how many yards does he have? 28 yards is how much which brings him to a poultry 183 yards. So the 9 targets brings his target # up to 37. Out of those 9 targets, he had 4 receptions, bringing his reception total up to 19. So this buy low candidate is averaging 36.6 yds per game and 1.97 catches. Ummmmm.....I guess you are forgetting how bad of a QB Freeman really is. Sorry but I won't be touching Mike Williams with a 10ft pole. Now that said, I never try to deter somebody from picking up a guy on the cheap. I just think your expectations of him may be miscued by his targets. The fact TB is a run oriented offense and Freeman is horrible should be enough to tell you to stay away. I'll add in the quote Williams made yesterday "Basically I want to help my team win," he said. "If it's blocking more, catching short passes. Whatever I can do to help my team win more is what I'm going to do." --- Yikes Edited October 10, 2011 by tazinib1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Rotoworld has his target total for the year at 39 (unofficially). He still only catches 50% though. I get my stats from ProFootball Focus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markgugs Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I think both Roddy White & Matt Ryan can be had for less than they're worth. And unless I'm mistaken, they have something like 9 of their remaining 11 games in domes. I would expect they're going to put up #s closer to what most expected of them. Not sure how much he'll improve, but Hillis can likely be had for less than he (was) worth too. Others: maybe B.Marshall, Felix Jones, Bradshaw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I think both Roddy White & Matt Ryan can be had for less than they're worth. And unless I'm mistaken, they have something like 9 of their remaining 11 games in domes. I would expect they're going to put up #s closer to what most expected of them. Not sure how much he'll improve, but Hillis can likely be had for less than he (was) worth too. Others: maybe B.Marshall, Felix Jones, Bradshaw I like the Felix buy low ,,, if you have the roster spot can get him as a bench warmer for insurance nothing is worst than making the playoffs then get hit by the injury bug and have the waiver & trade privileges locked for the remainder of the year. I'm not sure when your leagues stop trading for the year ( ours is after Thursday of week 10 ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I think both Roddy White & Matt Ryan can be had for less than they're worth. And unless I'm mistaken, they have something like 9 of their remaining 11 games in domes. I would expect they're going to put up #s closer to what most expected of them. Not sure how much he'll improve, but Hillis can likely be had for less than he (was) worth too. Others: maybe B.Marshall, Felix Jones, Bradshaw Interesting that you mention both Hillis and Roddy White. Two guys in one of my leagues just traded them straight up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Reactionary much about Freeman? Same stuff everyone is spewing about Ryan being overrated. I love how when guys get off to a slow start or are hurting your fantasy team, all of the sudden "they're terrible"... TB is one of the youngest teams and perhaps the most hurt by the lockout... So I guess since Bradford is having a big-time sophomore slump, all dynasty leaguers should just bail on him too? Josh Freeman is a very good young QB, so if anyone wants to sell low on Mike Williams, I'll buy him at a discount price. I think TB looks like a completely different team in the second half of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Reactionary much about Freeman? Same stuff everyone is spewing about Ryan being overrated. I love how when guys get off to a slow start or are hurting your fantasy team, all of the sudden "they're terrible"... TB is one of the youngest teams and perhaps the most hurt by the lockout... So I guess since Bradford is having a big-time sophomore slump, all dynasty leaguers should just bail on him too? Josh Freeman is a very good young QB, so if anyone wants to sell low on Mike Williams, I'll buy him at a discount price. I think TB looks like a completely different team in the second half of the season. To each his own. I surely would not place Freeman in the same category as Ryan and not even Bradford. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 The biggest question mark about guys like Mike Williams is whether or not they are good buy low candidates or whether or not it is time to cut bait. Looking at these boards, the list of guys in that same category would include DeAngelo Williams, Percy Harvin, Shonn Greene, Matt Ryan, and Marshawn Lynch (among others). At some point, getting a lot of targets (or carries) just might not be enough... If the team or situation just isn't that good, then it isn't that good. Seriously, how often do you get some offer from someone trying to trade you one of these underperformers (or some other underperformer) just to see the owner drop that player when nobody bites on his offers. That's the million dollar question - who represents a better stash and hope (or second half breakout) candidate: Mike Williams (on my team and sucking) or Greg Little (on the wire and possibly not sucking)? Shonn Greene (on my team and sucking) or Jackie Battle (on the wire and possibly not sucking)? It feels wrong just dropping some of these guys when we feel like we should get SOMETHING for them, but if they stink, they stink. BTW, I don't own the above teams, and I'm not looking for advice - just using those as examples. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markgugs Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Reactionary much about Freeman? Same stuff everyone is spewing about Ryan being overrated. I love how when guys get off to a slow start or are hurting your fantasy team, all of the sudden "they're terrible"... TB is one of the youngest teams and perhaps the most hurt by the lockout... So I guess since Bradford is having a big-time sophomore slump, all dynasty leaguers should just bail on him too? Josh Freeman is a very good young QB, so if anyone wants to sell low on Mike Williams, I'll buy him at a discount price. I think TB looks like a completely different team in the second half of the season. uh, sorry, but Freeman's nowhere near Ryan, and never has been. Ryan was expected, rightfully so IMO, to be a top 6-7 QB this year. Freeman was expected to justify his being the lowest QB1 (12-team league)./ Ryan is definitely worthy of sitting in favor of a better match-up, but Freeman's barely worthy of roster space. In 1 of my 12-team leagues (1 pt/20 yds passing, 6 pts/TD, -2 pts/INT), Ryan has 94.4 pts, Freeman has 86 pts. Now I know that doesn't seem like much (it isn't), but Freeman scored 29 of his pts (34% of his total pts) in 1 game. And looking forward, who has more viable, proven weapons? Certainly not Freeman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 uh, sorry, but Freeman's nowhere near Ryan, and never has been. Ryan was expected, rightfully so IMO, to be a top 6-7 QB this year. Freeman was expected to justify his being the lowest QB1 (12-team league)./ Ryan is definitely worthy of sitting in favor of a better match-up, but Freeman's barely worthy of roster space. In 1 of my 12-team leagues (1 pt/20 yds passing, 6 pts/TD, -2 pts/INT), Ryan has 94.4 pts, Freeman has 86 pts. Now I know that doesn't seem like much (it isn't), but Freeman scored 29 of his pts (34% of his total pts) in 1 game. And looking forward, who has more viable, proven weapons? Certainly not Freeman. I'm definitely not saying Freeman is as good of a QB or should have drafted where Ryan was, by any means... I'm only comparing the reactionary "terrible" talk, which you noted in another thread was absurd to say about Ryan... So maybe it's a little bit less absurd to knock Freeman, but I still think it's kind of unfounded. Situations and other factors can change as the season goes along, and that's why I'll always buy talented guys like Mike Williams for cheap, for if/when they can get it together... Maybe they do continue to struggle all season, but if Freeman rebounds to anywhere near the QB he was last year and him and MW get into a rhythm, then I don't think you're going to hear any more of this "terrible" talk. As per MT's post, this is why I tend to try to draft talent over situation. I completely regret looking at situation first and taking Greene, but as for a guy who meets the eye test like Harvin, why not buy cheap into that talent and potential for when/if they can get it together, if it's not going to cost that much for the upside if you're wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I'm definitely not saying Freeman is as good of a QB or should have drafted where Ryan was, by any means... I'm only comparing the reactionary "terrible" talk, which you noted in another thread was absurd to say about Ryan... So maybe it's a little bit less absurd to knock Freeman, but I still think it's kind of unfounded. Situations and other factors can change as the season goes along, and that's why I'll always buy talented guys like Mike Williams for cheap, for if/when they can get it together... Maybe they do continue to struggle all season, but if Freeman rebounds to anywhere near the QB he was last year and him and MW get into a rhythm, then I don't think you're going to hear any more of this "terrible" talk. As per MT's post, this is why I tend to try to draft talent over situation. I completely regret looking at situation first and taking Greene, but as for a guy who meets the eye test like Harvin, why not buy cheap into that talent and potential for when/if they can get it together, if it's not going to cost that much for the upside if you're wrong. Now is the perfect time to buy low on Mike Williams if you think he is going to rebound. The Bucs looked horrible yesterday. They aren't a great team, but they are better than they looked yesterday. And I agree with DoG - talent at the WR position usually wins out. It's why I wouldn't cut bait with Brandon Marshall yet - he gets targeted a lot and is a top level talent. The two will eventually translate to numbers as long as Matt Moore doesn't completely suck, and even if he does, I have confidence that Sage Rosenfels can feed Marshall the ball. The Dolphins stink and will be throwing the ball a lot playing from behind all the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markgugs Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Now is the perfect time to buy low on Mike Williams if you think he is going to rebound. The Bucs looked horrible yesterday. They aren't a great team, but they are better than they looked yesterday. And I agree with DoG - talent at the WR position usually wins out. It's why I wouldn't cut bait with Brandon Marshall yet - he gets targeted a lot and is a top level talent. The two will eventually translate to numbers as long as Matt Moore doesn't completely suck, and even if he does, I have confidence that Sage Rosenfels can feed Marshall the ball. The Dolphins stink and will be throwing the ball a lot playing from behind all the time. I have a lot more confidence in M.Williams/TB rebounding a bit than I do Freeman. And the reasons you noted are why I listed Marshall in my 1st post above Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Now is the perfect time to buy low on Mike Williams if you think he is going to rebound. The Bucs looked horrible yesterday. They aren't a great team, but they are better than they looked yesterday. And I agree with DoG - talent at the WR position usually wins out. It's why I wouldn't cut bait with Brandon Marshall yet - he gets targeted a lot and is a top level talent. The two will eventually translate to numbers as long as Matt Moore doesn't completely suck, and even if he does, I have confidence that Sage Rosenfels can feed Marshall the ball. The Dolphins stink and will be throwing the ball a lot playing from behind all the time. Please explain why you think Williams is a great buy low candidate. As I've shown, his numbers do not translate. Either do Freeman's ability to get him the ball. He's not better than a dunk and dink WR now. A buy low WR4 with POSSIBLE upside...period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Please explain why you think Williams is a great buy low candidate. As I've shown, his numbers do not translate. Either do Freeman's ability to get him the ball. He's not better than a dunk and dink WR now. A buy low WR4 with POSSIBLE upside...period. Notice in my post that I stated "if you think he will rebound". The point I was making about Tampa Mike is that his stock can't get lower and that talent and targets usually end up equating to numbers. However, I used Brandon Marshall to make that second point. Tampa Mike isn't getting as many targets as Marshall, particularly in the red zone. Ultimately, I don't think Freeman will hold him back much more than I think Matt Moore will hold Brandon Marshall back. The difference is that Brandon Marshall has proven himself with multiple 100-catch, 1,000 yard seasons on his resume, and he is consistently the lead target guy. I am not quite as sold on Tampa Mike being an elite enough talent to make good on his targets, and it also appears that Tampa Mike is not quite the target hog as Marshall has been to this point (compared to the rest of their respective teams). Through week 4, Marshall had 39 targets. The next closest on his team is Davone Bess with 26 targets. Tampa Mike had 31 targets in the same time frame (through week 4), but Earnest Graham has 28 targets and Kellen Winslow 26 targets as well, which shows a willingness for Freeman to spread the ball around. Even Preston Parker has 21 targets, In other words, Marshall has nobody within 12 targets of him on his own team, and Tampa Mike has three guys on his own team within 12 targets of him. So no, I'm not convinced that Tampa Mike is a great buy low, but I never said I was. Brandon Marshall would be a much "safer" buy low IMO, and he might be had cheap if people are afraid that Matt Moore will ruin him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I send a PM to an owner of MW and he wasn't interested in selling. I think buying low is really difficult. I'd rather over-pay for a proven, currently productive player. ya sure about that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Nice list so far guys Mike Williams Not Mike Williams Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delfamdelfam Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 yeah, I'd actually like some more opinions on guys who that should be bought low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 elaborate. You've rejected or revoked every offer How much more elaboration is needed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Nice list so far guys Mike Williams Not Mike Williams Definitely not the other Mike Williams Fixed for accuracy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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