Under The Numbers

[JUMbotron]

Yes Please!!!

JUM you da man!!!

 

I'm writing up a B/S/C segment for the Friday column right now.

[loaf]

I just dropped Matty Bust as I could never get any production from him. Or I would start my QB2 (Eli Manning) and he would throw for 297 yards and no scores while Matty throws for 1 and runs for 1. Just never got consistent production due to playing the wrong matchups which I never envisioned I would have to do. Now I'm starting Cassel this week and my opponent's picked up my dropped Matty Bust. Watch Matty now throw for 3 scores. Against me.

[goldenboy81]

I just dropped Matty Bust as I could never get any production from him. Or I would start my QB2 (Eli Manning) and he would throw for 297 yards and no scores while Matty throws for 1 and runs for 1. Just never got consistent production due to playing the wrong matchups which I never envisioned I would have to do. Now I'm starting Cassel this week and my opponent's picked up my dropped Matty Bust. Watch Matty now throw for 3 scores. Against me.

 

Wow, can't believe you dropped him. In our league he is still the 12th ranked QB with a 17.76 pt. game average. I still think people are over reacting....

[i_am_the_swammi]

Wow, can't believe you dropped him. In our league he is still the 12th ranked QB with a 17.76 pt. game average. I still think people are over reacting....

 

He is the 12th ranked QB because he had one magical game against Philly where he threw for four TDs. If you started him in almost any of the other five games this year, he has done very little to help your squad win.

 

And like you stated...he is the 12th-ranked QB....meaning he is the worst of all the starting QBs in 12-team leagues....and again, that is with having one miracle game to prop up those stats. In many of the other weeks, he was not better than QBs ranked 15-20. Which is pathetic.

Edited October 20, 2011 by i_am_the_swammi

[JUMbotron]

He is the 12th ranked QB because he had one magical game against Philly where he threw for four TDs. If you started him in almost any of the other five games this year, he has done very little to help your squad win.

 

And like you stated...he is the 12th-ranked QB....meaning he is the worst of all the starting QBs in 12-team leagues....and again, that is with having one miracle game to prop up those stats. In many of the other weeks, he was not better than QBs ranked 15-20. Which is pathetic.

 

Yep.

[goldenboy81]

He is the 12th ranked QB because he had one magical game against Philly where he threw for four TDs. If you started him in almost any of the other five games this year, he has done very little to help your squad win.

 

And like you stated...he is the 12th-ranked QB....meaning he is the worst of all the starting QBs in 12-team leagues....and again, that is with having one miracle game to prop up those stats. In many of the other weeks, he was not better than QBs ranked 15-20. Which is pathetic.

 

 

So we just remove games where certain players blow up? What? My argument was dropping Ryan for Castle. I guess if we are just removing "best games" then we have to do that to everyone we compare him to. Lets remove Castle's week 5 game where he "blew up." He now averages 11.81 pts. per game. Where by removing Ryans week 2 game, he is at 15.24. Simple math folks.

 

10th. Sanchez = 16.024 (removed game 3)

11th. Ben = 14.024 (removed game 5)

12th. Ryan = 15.24(removed game 2)

 

By doing the same thing to the next two QB's above him, he becomes #11, he actually moves up. So your argument of QB's ranked 15-20 is false. If you remove his "miracle game" he actually moves up to 11th, not down to 15-20. I know Mendenhall has not lived up to expectations but by removing his last game, he would also be dropped in your league?

 

I am shocked that we are talking about dropping him. By dropping him you are saying that there are other QB's on your leagues WW that are better than top 12. If that is true, I would love to play in your league. I know you/we are pissed that Ryan has not lived up to your/our expectations but you can not just make blanket assumption statements like you made. Apply proof to your arguments instead of just throwing out made up facts.

Edited October 20, 2011 by goldenboy81

[Slugs3511]

So we just remove games where certain players blow up? What? My argument was dropping Ryan for Castle. I guess if we are just removing "best games" then we have to do that to everyone we compare him to. Lets remove Castle's week 5 game where he "blew up." He now averages 11.81 pts. per game. Where by removing Ryans week 2 game, he is at 15.24. Simple math folks.

 

10th. Sanchez = 16.024 (removed game 3)

11th. Ben = 14.024 (removed game 5)

12th. Ryan = 15.24(removed game 2)

 

By doing the same thing to the next two QB's above him, he becomes #11, he actually moves up. So your argument of QB's ranked 15-20 is false. If you remove his "miracle game" he actually moves up to 11th, not down to 15-20. I know Mendenhall has not lived up to expectations but by removing his last game, he would also be dropped in your league?

 

I am shocked that we are talking about dropping him. By dropping him you are saying that there are other QB's on your leagues WW that are better than top 12. If that is true, I would love to play in your league. I know you/we are pissed that Ryan has not lived up to your/our expectations but you can not just make blanket assumption statements like you made. Apply proof to your arguments instead of just throwing out made up facts.

 

Here's the thing....I started him for 3 weeks and he did nothing.....my backup was Fitzpatrick....and I contemplated continuing to play Ryan because "he has to break out soon, Right? " well, I've started Fitz the last 3 weeks and have evened my season at 3-3.....so until Fitz goes cold I will continue to roll with him....

[goldenboy81]

Here's the thing....I started him for 3 weeks and he did nothing.....my backup was Fitzpatrick....and I contemplated continuing to play Ryan because "he has to break out soon, Right? " well, I've started Fitz the last 3 weeks and have evened my season at 3-3.....so until Fitz goes cold I will continue to roll with him....

By no means do I have an argument with this. Fitz is currently the 8th best QB in terms of fantasy points. If I were lucky enough to have him, I would also roll with him. I'm not saying that if you have a better option to not go with that option, my argument was with dropping him. He should not be dropped in any league. If I had a better option, he would sit as my backup (in a 1 QB start league) until he proved he could be more consistent than whoever I was starting.

 

I happen to play in a league where we can start 2 QB's and he is a must start for me most weeks. Even if you don't play in a 2 QB Start League, I would assume most people have a backup QB. Even in a 10 team league, that would mean there are 20 QB's rostered. And like I said before, he is #12, which is, at the worst, a very good backup.

 

With that being said, I realize most people (like myself) did not draft him as a backup. I can give you examples of the same situation with every position out there. Roll with the punches and adapt.

Edited October 20, 2011 by goldenboy81

[i_am_the_swammi]

So we just remove games where certain players blow up?

 

No, you seem to be missing the point.

 

If QB #1 had totals of 14, 16, 16, 18, 18, 19, removing the game with the 19 wouldn't affect his average too much. He's still pretty reliable in the sense you know what you are getting, and can game-plan it. He provides the same stead performance each week

 

Conversely, with a QB like Ryan, who's 12, 22, 15, 21, 9 and 18 are all over the board. His best weeks are marginally better than average, and no where near the upper echelon of QBs. The bigger problem is the other weeks where he can theoretically cause you to lose. And lets be honest, many people expected this QB, with receiving weapons such as White/Jones/Gonzales, and a solid run game to support the pass, would be near that upper echelon, and drafted him as such. To say "well, he is still top-12" is a perfect example of the stats lying to you.

 

I think that is the brunt of what a lot of the complaints are about Ryan.

[i_am_the_swammi]

Oh, and I am not sure what system you are using, but in standard scoring leagues (4 pts TD, 1 point 25 yards, -2 INT), he is 14th....and that is only because he hasn't had his bye week yet. if you take that into consideration, the delta widens significantly.

 

1. Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 182.4

2. Newton, Cam CAR QB 161.4

3. Brady, Tom NEP QB 159.5

4. Brees, Drew NOS QB 151.4

5. Stafford, Matthew DET QB 139.7

6. Vick, Michael PHI QB 130.0

7. Manning, Eli NYG QB 124.5

8. Fitzpatrick, Ryan BUF QB 114.6

9. Schaub, Matt HOU QB 110.5

10. Freeman, Josh TBB QB 104.1

11. Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB 103.0

12. Romo, Tony DAL QB 100.3

13. Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB 100.0

14. Ryan, Matt ATL QB 99.5

15. Hasselbeck, Matt TEN QB 98.5

16. Cutler, Jay CHI QB 96.7

17. Rivers, Philip SDC QB 92.9

18. Dalton, Andy CIN QB 91.7

19. Campbell, Jason OAK QB 90.6

20. McCoy, Colt CLE QB 90.4

 

Points per week, a truer representation of his performance, is even more dismal:

1. Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 30.40

2. Newton, Cam CAR QB 26.90

3. Brady, Tom NEP QB 26.58

4. Brees, Drew NOS QB 25.23

5. Stafford, Matthew DET QB 23.28

6.. Vick, Michael PHI QB 21.67

7.. Manning, Eli NYG QB 20.75

8. Romo, Tony DAL QB 20.06

9. Hasselbeck, Matt TEN QB 19.70

10. Fitzpatrick, Ryan BUF QB 19.10

11. Rivers, Philip SDC QB 18.58

12. Schaub, Matt HOU QB 18.42

13. McCoy, Colt CLE QB 18.08

14. Flacco, Joe BAL QB 17.36

15. Freeman, Josh TBB QB 17.35

16. Henne, Chad MIA QB 17.18

17.. Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB 17.17

18. Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB 16.67

19. Ryan, Matt ATL QB 16.58

20.. Cutler, Jay CHI QB 16.12

 

As you noted earlier sarcastically, "simple math, folks".

[goldenboy81]

Fair enough. However, what led everyone to believe he would be ultra consistent? Here are his 2010 fantasy points by game (bold are games that are poor performance in relation to his average):

2010 numbers link

 

2010

Week 1 = 13

Week 2 = 20.85

Week 3 = 20

Week 4 = 18.15

Week 5 = 12.85

Week 6 = 18.8

Week 7 = 24.45

Week 8 = 15.25

Week 9 = 25.3

Week 10 = 19.45

Week 11 = 12.85

Week 12 = 15.95

Week 13 = 14.75

Week 14 = 18.3

Week 15 = 13

Week 16 = 18.5

 

I drafted him 3.8, which was the best QB available at that pick. The only two QBs that are doing better and went after him are Stafford and E. Manning (not that anyone cares but just wanted to show his overall value in our draft). I guess everyone thought Julio Jones was going to be a huge difference maker and that R. White would hold expectations which again, is a fair assumption but didn't pan out.

 

Sorry, did not mean for this thread to become all about Ryan...

Edited October 20, 2011 by goldenboy81

[i_am_the_swammi]

Fair enough. However, what led everyone to believe he would be ultra consistent?

 

I guess everyone thought Julio Jones was going to be a huge difference maker and that R. White would hold expectations which again, is a fair assumption but didn't pan out.

 

1. Jones would open up more space for White, creating a bigger window for Ryan to be able to fit the ball into.

2. On a more basic level, most though Ryan would continue to get better.

 

Neither has happened.

[delusions of grandeur]

1. Jones would open up more space for White, creating a bigger window for Ryan to be able to fit the ball into.

That’s not really true, because Julio has just started to garner attention, and Ryan has hit Roddy on plenty of catchable balls he dropped, despite some accuracy issues at times. IMO, it’s more related to the O-line getting him constantly pressured, but here are a few things to consider:

 

1) It’s still only week 6, and Ryan looked a ton more comfortable back there running the no-huddle vs Carolina, and should have had a second 40 yard TD to Roddy that drew a PI and Turner got at the 1. But make no mistake that Turner was a large part of the gameplan that game, keeping the ball out of Newtons hands with them completely unable to stop it.

 

2) Mularkey is the problem with Ryan much more than Ryan is. If they let him run that no-huddle the majority of the time, good things will happen…

 

Did we overbuy Ryan, yes probably, as the Falcons aren’t going to shy away from running until he gets more consistent and regains his accuracy or they have no choice. Add to that, I think the O-line has gotten him rattled, being among the most hit in the league, but they do seem to be improving and hopefully getting back healthy. I'm not sure why people can see this so much with Bradford's struggles and not Ryan's.

 

I’m far from ready to say that he’ll perform up to his ADP, but the schedule eases up a lot defensively over these tough first 5 games, and it’s not that hard to predict which games the matchup will create a need to pass and put up points and which favor the run. Sorry to say he may be at that point to be back to a QBBC matchup play right now or benched if you have options, but remember that the guy still put up 3,700/28/9 last year, so if he gets back to being comfortable back there, a rebound certainly isn’t out of the question with those weapons.

[JUMbotron]

Who's dropping Ryan? Gotta be a 8-team league but even then, not advised.

[silverback]

No, not dropping Ryan, just adding Tebow!

[BA Baracus]

I'm also disgusted with the ATL passing game. I had Roddy White and just dealt him plus Josh Freeman for Larry Fitzgerald. I already had Cutler and Fitzpatrick and have just been trying to dump Freeman on someone because I hate rostering 3 QB's.

 

I'm a little worried that Roddy will now blow up, but this feels like the right move. I can now start Fitzy and VJax for the rest of the year at my 2 WR positions.

 

Was I fool for losing the faith in Roddy? What's your gut reaction to this move?

[loaf]

Who's dropping Ryan? Gotta be a 8-team league but even then, not advised.

I dropped him, 10 team league.

I got sick and this week doesn't look like a great week to start him. I've got Eli coming back and Cassle has the strongest EOS the rest of the way.