Who's starting Tebow this week?

[Bronco Billy]

This is a starting Tebow thread.

 

Not a WDIS - Tebow of Stafford.

 

No, but it is a good center of debate. Given Tebow's potential output per his history, who he is playing against, and that it is going to be Tebow-mania in Miami tomorrow; is a QB like Stafford who is just outside the elite group of QBs an automatic start over Tebow? I think that's worthy of some discussion.

[Ditkaless Wonders]

I'm thinking something like 13 out of 28 passing for 225 (Broken plays are often long gainers) 1 T.D. 2 INT.'s With 11 for 78 rushing with 2 T.D.'s

 

Substandard passer, effective runner, effective on 3rd downs because of the run, pretty good fantasy Q.B. but likely to regress once pro coordinators get some tape on him.

 

The guy is a young Donovan McNabb with slightly less accuracy. He will stick around in this league for a while. He will have fans, and he will have detractors. Both will have points.

[delusions of grandeur]

No, but it is a good center of debate. Given Tebow's potential output per his history, who he is playing against, and that it is going to be Tebow-mania in Miami tomorrow; is a QB like Stafford who is just outside the elite group of QBs an automatic start over Tebow? I think that's worthy of some discussion.

Let's see. He's playing Atlanta, who've gotten abused by good QBs and WRs. His worst game so far was close to 300 yards and still 2TDs. He has the only unstoppable target in the game. They have no running game. Do I need to keep going or is that enough reasons?

 

Don't get me wrong, with his running ability I think Tebow will be a fine fantasy QB as long as he's starting, succeed or fail, but cmon, Stafford has both the higher floor and the higher ceiling right now (and conceivably going forward as teams now have film and are gameplanning for Tebow)... Or at least that's what I'll tend to believe until Tebow shows otherwise. I don't care what he did in his starts last year, this is a what have you done for me lately game, and he wasn't even the undisputed starter gonig into this year or proved that he's finally NFL ready with his throws yet.

 

I know you think that Tebow can succeed Billy, but cmon, this is FF. He's gotta show it before he gets the start over a guy who's throwing 300+ yards and 2+TDs every single game.

[NSab]

I'm thinking something like 13 out of 28 passing for 225 (Broken plays are often long gainers) 1 T.D. 2 INT.'s With 11 for 78 rushing with 2 T.D.'s

 

Substandard passer, effective runner, effective on 3rd downs because of the run, pretty good fantasy Q.B. but likely to regress once pro coordinators get some tape on him.

 

The guy is a young Donovan McNabb with slightly less accuracy. He will stick around in this league for a while. He will have fans, and he will have detractors. Both will have points.

 

Less accuracy ouch, that's very bad.

[Bronco Billy]

Let's see. He's playing Atlanta, who've gotten abused by good QBs and WRs. His worst game so far was close to 300 yards and still 2TDs. He has the only unstoppable target in the game. They have no running game. Do I need to keep going or is that enough reasons?

 

Don't get me wrong, with his running ability I think Tebow will be a fine fantasy QB as long as he's starting, succeed or fail, but cmon, Stafford has both the higher floor and the higher ceiling right now (and conceivably going forward as teams now have film and are gameplanning for Tebow)... Or at least that's what I'll tend to believe until Tebow shows otherwise. I don't care what he did in his starts last year, this is a what have you done for me lately game, and he wasn't even the undisputed starter gonig into this year or proved that he's finally NFL ready with his throws yet.

 

I know you think that Tebow can succeed Billy, but cmon, this is FF. He's gotta show it before he gets the start over a guy who's throwing 300+ yards and 2+TDs every single game.

 

Let's say you and DW are both correct in your assumed stats. It's a 1 pt/20 4 pt/TD -2/INT passing, 1 pt/10 6 pt/TD rushing league

 

Your assumption of 300/2/0 for Stafford puts him at 23 FF pts. DW's 225/1/2 with 78/2 puts Tebow at 29 FF pts. Yet you are putting forth that starting Stafford over Tebow is a slam dunk. I'm trying to figure out why that is.

 

Stafford hasn't broken 300 yds his past 3 games -and was only really close in the last of those 3 - and seems to have settled into a 21-24 FF pts dependable range recently. Tebow put up 18 FF pts in a quarter and a half vs SD, and he hadn't practiced with the 1s in 2 months before he came in. There's some very real and distinct "what-have-you-shown-me-lately" evidence that would support a Tebow start (or any QB not named Tebow who did the same against what Stafford has done lately).

Edited October 22, 2011 by Bronco Billy

[i_am_the_swammi]

So if everything else is equal, if your opponent is say 30 pts better than you, you play Stafford and his seeming lock of 20-22 pts and a likely ceiling of say 25 to 26 pts - given where he seems to have settled in?

 

Yes. Given that (1) Detroit is without a running back of quality and will likely be throwing the ball more than usual and (2) playing in a game that has solid potential to be high scoring, and (3) is playing in perfect conditions at home in a dome....

 

...versus a Tebow that (1) has only 1 career game of scoring more than 30 fantasy points, (2) is playing a Miami team in a game that is likely to be lower scoring and conducive to more equal mix of rushing and passing, (3) will be without its top target and adapting to life with a new WR1and (4) is playing on the road.....

 

And I don't believe Stafford has settled anywhere. He's played both the Bears and 49ers each of the last two weeks, two of the better defenses in the league. And the Cowboys before that, a team that can bring some serious pressure to the QB. This week, he gets a Falcons team that is ranked 27th in points against, and 28th in passing defense.

 

I don't see a "likely ceiling of 25-26". Given what I have laid out above, he could easily go for 300+/3TDs.

 

All that being said, both Stafford and Tebow could have big days. I just think Stafford has a higher floor, and a higher ceiling.

[Bronco Billy]

Less accuracy ouch, that's very bad.

 

Well, it does help to have receivers who actually catch uncontested balls that hit them in the hands...

[NSab]

Well, it does help to have receivers who actually catch uncontested balls that hit them in the hands...

 

Funny they trade Tebows best option the same week they give him the Start.

[Bronco Billy]

And I don't believe Stafford has settled anywhere. He's played both the Bears and 49ers each of the last two weeks, two of the better defenses in the league.

 

That's a hugh stretch, if we are discussing pass Ds. In fact, calling it only a stretch is a stretch in itself. The Bears' pass D and the Falcons pass D are just about equals of each other, and DAL is hardly a "better" pass D in the league.

[i_am_the_swammi]

I'll also add that Tebow, given the right environment in the game, could indeed have a big day...one of those 29-pointers alluded to earlier....or better. So I'll ask you this: if an elite QB (i.e Rodgers, Brees, etc) puts up 25 points, would you then say people should have started Tebow over QBs like that?

 

Listen, I like Tebow, and own him in 2 leagues. But looking back at his big games last year, Denver's opponent in each of them scored 39, 23 & 33 points, respectively. They were games where Tebow was forced to keep pushing to put points on the board. Running games were completely abandoned. I just don't see that scenario playing out versus Matt Moore and the Dolphins tomorrow.

[delusions of grandeur]

Let's say you and DW are both correct in your assumed stats. It's a 1 pt/20 4 pt/TD -2/INT passing, 1 pt/10 6 pt/TD rushing league

 

Your assumption of 300/2/0 for Stafford puts him at 23 FF pts. DW's 225/1/2 with 78/2 puts Tebow at 29 FF pts. Yet you are putting forth that starting Stafford over Tebow is a slam dunk. I'm trying to figure out why that is.

 

Stafford hasn't broken 300 yds his past 3 games -and was only really close in the last of those 3 - and seems to have settled into a 21-24 FF pts dependable range recently. Tebow put up 18 FF pts in a quarter and a half vs SD, and he hadn't practiced with the 1s in 2 months before he came in. There's some very real and distinct "what-have-you-shown-me-lately" evidence that would support a Tebow start (or any QB not named Tebow who did the same against what Stafford has done lately).

Notice I said at least 300 and 2TDs, as in that's been his floor so far. I do not expect him to perform near his floor versus a very susceptible ATL D, and I can't say the same thing about Tebow. Maybe he has 3TDs with 2 on the ground, but that's not his floor, and it's completely possible he doesn't do nearly that good.

 

Yes, Miami does also make for a weaker matchup (unless they start playing up to preseason expectations for the D), but when you have similarly favorable matchups, I'm gonna go with the guy who's been getting it done all year, even versus tough defenses over the guy who still has much to prove... All Stafford has to prove is an ability to stay healthy, but I'm not going to be scared to play him over any other QB who could be injured on any play (I mean, I could even argue that Tebow could end up a bigger injury risk with the shots he'll take as a running QB in the NFL).

 

Even though I am a vocal Tebow detractor, I definitely think he can and will be a good fantasy QB, regardless of his success for the Broncos, but it's going to take more than what he's shown so far for me to start him over a far safer QB with just as much upside.

 

 

(ETA: Okay, looking at the yardage totals, maybe I was offbase there and he has done worse, but the virtual guarantee of multiple TDs vs another susceptible D has had me overlooking that with good reason).

Edited October 22, 2011 by delusions of granduer

[Bronco Billy]

Funny they trade Tebows best option the same week they give him the Start.

 

A whole different topic, but Tebow put Lloyd in a spot where he could have tied the SD game and he instead dropped a ball that hit him in the hands. Lloyd made one spectacular catch before that, but dropped another back shoulder throw that also hit him in the hands when he fell down.

 

In any caes, it doesn't seem really to make too much of a difference when Tebow is likely to make up for his throwing short comings with his legs.

[Bronco Billy]

I'll also add that Tebow, given the right environment in the game, could indeed have a big day...one of those 29-pointers alluded to earlier....or better. So I'll ask you this: if an elite QB (i.e Rodgers, Brees, etc) puts up 25 points, would you then say people should have started Tebow over QBs like that?

 

Listen, I like Tebow, and own him in 2 leagues. But looking back at his big games last year, Denver's opponent in each of them scored 39, 23 & 33 points, respectively. They were games where Tebow was forced to keep pushing to put points on the board. Running games were completely abandoned. I just don't see that scenario playing out versus Matt Moore and the Dolphins tomorrow.

 

I just traded Rodgers away and got Tebow in the deal along with other considerations, and the reason I did that is precisely because I think Tebow can fill Rodgers FF pt shoes on most days. Not because he is anywhere near the QB Rodgers is, but rather because on most days he'll get enough on the ground to combine with his passing to be able to compete with Rodgers FF-wise, except for those 4+ passing TD days Rodgers gets here and there. Tebow has shown himself to be deadly on Ds in the red zone with his ability to extend plays and run balls in. Tebow has also seemed to show that he can get the team to play harder and better around him because of his leadership and fire. That shouldn't be underestimated.

 

GB is also starting to show that they may call off the dogs when they outmatch opponents, if the STL game is any indicator. They may not run it up like they did against DEN, because Rodgers could have gone for 6+ TD against STL if GB were so inclined. Kind of like Brady owners needing to be concerned if NE is trying to protect its weak D by running more, like they have shown lately.

 

ETA: Tebow - as a rookie - in his 3 starts at the end of last year averaged more FF pts/game than all but 1 regularly starting QB last year (Vick). Again, it wasn't because he was a great thrower. But he does put up a lot of FF pts with his running, his ability to manage to move the team, and how he plays in the red zone. He may never be a classic thrower, but this kid just might be a very good QB. If being able to throw were all it took to succeed in the NFL at QB, Jeff George would have been one of the great ones.

Edited October 22, 2011 by Bronco Billy

[NSab]

Tebow and Cam Newton should be similar in stats at least in my expectation

[Bronco Billy]

Tebow and Cam Newton should be similar in stats at least in my expectation

 

I think that's reasonable. I will admit that to date I may have been wrong about both initially - I thought both were poor uses of 1st round picks, especially given the nature of the NFL and its slant towards throwing offenses. But both guys seem to be able to manage to get things done. Both - or either - may still end up as busts. Only time and play will tell.

Edited October 22, 2011 by Bronco Billy

[NSab]

I think that's reasonable. I will admit that to date I may have been wrong about both initially - I thought both were poor uses of 1st round picks, especially given the nature of the NFL and its slant towards throwing offenses. But both guys seem to be able to manage to get things done. Both - or either - may still end up as busts. Only time and play will tell.

 

I agree but Fantasy wise Vick, Newton and Tebow all similar in Production for the same reasons

[Donutrun Jellies]

Does anyone have the stones?

 

Starting him in two leagues, as my Brady is on bye in each of them. It's brought a bit of entertainment to Brady's bye week -- and if he hits big, I bet I can trade him and upgrade my starting lineups. If he stinks, I waive him and let Brady bring me to the playoffs.

[Ditkaless Wonders]

Well, it does help to have receivers who actually catch uncontested balls that hit them in the hands...

 

 

I have always prefered receiveers with opposable thumbs.

 

 

I will say that Tebows early coaching allowed him to have a lot of bad habits which impeded his accuracy. He seems coachable and a hard worker and I feel his delivery speed and accuracy may be improving. I want to see what he can do with 10 games. He is not yet a finished product.

[Ditkaless Wonders]

I'll also add that Tebow, given the right environment in the game, could indeed have a big day...one of those 29-pointers alluded to earlier....or better. So I'll ask you this: if an elite QB (i.e Rodgers, Brees, etc) puts up 25 points, would you then say people should have started Tebow over QBs like that?

 

Listen, I like Tebow, and own him in 2 leagues. But looking back at his big games last year, Denver's opponent in each of them scored 39, 23 & 33 points, respectively. They were games where Tebow was forced to keep pushing to put points on the board. Running games were completely abandoned. I just don't see that scenario playing out versus Matt Moore and the Dolphins tomorrow.

 

 

I believe Houston had not jut one of the worst pass defenses in the league for last year, but one of the handful of worst in the last 5 years so I somewhat discount that performance.

 

I am mindful that in most scoring systems running yardage is twice as valuable as throwing yardage to getting even 50 a game makes any 200 yard game he has in the air the equivilent of a statue like Brady getting 300 since Brady is not likely to have rushing yardage.

[rajncajn]

I'd like to see you expound on this a bit. Tebow has put up some big FF numbers when given the opportunity and has been absolutely nails in the red zone in the chances he's been given. I'd like to see you support why you think Tebow's FF production is suddenly going to fall off substantially.

I wasn't saying that at all, though I realize it may have sounded like that. HBTC actually got the point I was trying to make right. I honestly don't think Tebow is as talented a runner as, say a young McNabb or a Vick. I would be surprised to see him end up with over 50 yds & I think his only saving grace may be how poor a defense they are playing. On top of that he's not the most talented passer & doesn't really have the best WRs either. With all that in mind I would be extremely surprised to see him outscore Stafford & even if he did it would be by a minimal margin. I just think the risk is too great to start him over as solid a player as Stafford.

[Bronco Billy]

I wasn't saying that at all, though I realize it may have sounded like that. HBTC actually got the point I was trying to make right. I honestly don't think Tebow is as talented a runner as, say a young McNabb or a Vick. I would be surprised to see him end up with over 50 yds & I think his only saving grace may be how poor a defense they are playing. On top of that he's not the most talented passer & doesn't really have the best WRs either. With all that in mind I would be extremely surprised to see him outscore Stafford & even if he did it would be by a minimal margin. I just think the risk is too great to start him over as solid a player as Stafford.

 

Thanks, GB

[Rovers]

I'm goin Tebow over Roths. Neither one of them will light it up. My team bites anyway, so what the heck.

[Ditkaless Wonders]

I wasn't saying that at all, though I realize it may have sounded like that. HBTC actually got the point I was trying to make right. I honestly don't think Tebow is as talented a runner as, say a young McNabb or a Vick. I would be surprised to see him end up with over 50 yds & I think his only saving grace may be how poor a defense they are playing. On top of that he's not the most talented passer & doesn't really have the best WRs either. With all that in mind I would be extremely surprised to see him outscore Stafford & even if he did it would be by a minimal margin. I just think the risk is too great to start him over as solid a player as Stafford.

 

 

Not as talented a runner as Vick for certain, and maybe not as talented as a young McNabb, but in my mind his power makes up for his foot speed and lack of moves. John Riggins did not have speed or shiftiness, but power can also be effective. I would be surprised to see Tebow held under 50 on the ground in this one. My prediction is for 78. I think once teams get some good tape on him his running yardage will go down, though I think he will call his own number frequently in the red zone.

[rajncajn]

Not as talented a runner as Vick for certain, and maybe not as talented as a young McNabb, but in my mind his power makes up for his foot speed and lack of moves. John Riggins did not have speed or shiftiness, but power can also be effective. I would be surprised to see Tebow held under 50 on the ground in this one. My prediction is for 78. I think once teams get some good tape on him his running yardage will go down, though I think he will call his own number frequently in the red zone.

Do you think that in today's game that John Riggins would be an effective runner? Take a look at today's power backs & can you truthfully say that Tebow can be compared with them? I just don't think his running style will translate well to the NFL when teams are game-planning against him and with his limitations as a passer it will be easier to do that.

Edited October 23, 2011 by rajncajn

[rajncajn]

As a running back? Maybe not. As a scrambling quarterback? Absolutely! Vick is maybe the only quarterback that would be a surefire NFL-caliber halfback. But it doesn't mean other quarterbacks weren't still hughly effective running the ball without NFL-caliber halfback skills. Your analogy only makes sense if you're saying that Tebow can't transition to halfback if he doesn't pan out as a quarterback. Tebow's passing skills are what may prevent him from being an NFL quarterback, not the inability to run with the ball.

 

My guess is that Tebow will run with reckless abandon. He has a lot to prove and neither him nor his coaches are going to "coral" this Bronco in and worry about an injury as they would with a franchise quarterback. My guess is 10 to 15 carries with plenty of it head and/or shoulder first. 60 yards rushing with a rushing td is the same two passing touchdowns in leagues that give 6 points for passing touchdowns. It's the same as 4 passing touchdowns in leagues that give 3 points for passing touchdowns. Hard to go wrong with that.

If a defense game-plans to stop the run and just relies on the secondary to defend the pass then I say good luck hoping Tebow can run anything like he did in college and good luck hoping he can do much against the coverage.