Celek

[i_am_the_swammi]

Full disclosure: I dropped him earlier this year for Ballard due to non-performance and still not regretting it.

 

Celek is definitely the 4th receiving choice in PHI behind Slim Shady, Jackson, and Maclin; and may in some games #5 behind Avant also. Vick loves him some throwng downfield, and when he isn't McCoy is a better option as a safety valve. He wasn't worth a silent fart except for weeks 15 & 16 last season when he actually scored well. Looks like he's getting his couple of weeks to shine a little earlier htis year.

 

I think his standing as barely being worthy of a TE2 in larger leagues is about right and he's going to start disappointing those who think he's finally reaching upward again.

 

Hmmm.....two years ago, he was a concensus top-6 TE. Last year, as the Eagles OL collapsed, he stayed into block almost exclusively. It was hoped that with 3 new starters on the line this year, that would change, but with the lockout forcing a shortened pre-season, they didn't come together quickly, forcing much of the same blocking assignments for Celek. Then Peters got hurt and missed games 5 & 6, again forcing Celek to stay in in max-protect to keep Vick upright.

 

The last two weeks have seen the Eagles at full-strength at the OL position, and has allowed Celek to get back to what he does best: beat linebackers with his good hands and above-average speed. Defenses are rolling both safetys to the outside to double both Maclin and Jackson, leaving Celek 1-on-1 with slower LBs. He's been pretty successful taking advantage of it. Will they start playing more honest in weeks to come, and take Celek away? Maybe...but I doubt he's a weapon they think they have to gameplan for.

 

I think he's a low-end TE worthy of a start in most 10-team leagues the rest of the way, the way he was envisioned two years ago.

[rattsass]

In games where defenses force the Eagles to work short and underneath Celek will shine. All you have to do is figure out which matchups those will be.

[White lightning]

In games where defenses force the Eagles to work short and underneath Celek will shine. All you have to do is figure out which matchups those will be.

 

I agree, and since the Lovie Smith Bears play cover 2 as much/or more than any other team, I think Celek should have success this week. Not to mention that the Bears give up 18 FF points a game to TE in PPR leagues. (According to the Huddle's SOS chart).

[stevegrab]

Just read this, he may be held out of practice, sounds like just a precaution but watch the reports (and updates on huddle S/B & predictions/projectios lists) last this week.

 

 

Brent Celek, TE PHI

News: Eagles coach Andy Reid said TE Brent Celek is dealing with a hip contusion and might be held out of practice Thursday. Philadelphia hosts Chicago in Week 9 on Monday night.

Analysis: This is the last thing Fantasy owners want to hear after Celek has finally re-emerged offensively and has been one of the most added players in CBSSports.com leagues this week. The good thing is that he gets an extra day to rest since Philadelphia doesn't play until Monday. Still plan to start Celek as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy TE and if anything changes, then we will let you know.

[Bronco Billy]

Hmmm.....two years ago, he was a concensus top-6 TE.

 

2 yrs ago both McCoy and Maclin were rookies. They combined for 95 receptions that year. Last year with a year under their belts they combined for 148 receptions. This year they project over 16 games to 144 receptions.

 

Two years ago Celek had 76 receptions. Last year he had 42 receptions. This year he projects out to 46 receptions based upon a 16 game season.

 

See where I'm going with this?

Edited November 3, 2011 by Bronco Billy

[i_am_the_swammi]

See where I'm going with this?

 

I do....but for some reason, you are ignoring the fact that he was purposely taken out of positions where he could catch passes, due to the mess that was the OL. That isn't the case anymore, yet you for some reason don't believe he will be targeted, even though the stats for the last couple games would suggest otherwise.

 

There are plenty of examples of players who stats decrease because of the situation/offensive scheme they are in, only to bounce back when that situation improves.

[Bronco Billy]

I do....but for some reason, you are ignoring the fact that he was purposely taken out of positions where he could catch passes, due to the mess that was the OL. That isn't the case anymore, yet you for some reason don't believe he will be targeted, even though the stats for the last couple games would suggest otherwise.

 

There are plenty of examples of players who stats decrease because of the situation/offensive scheme they are in, only to bounce back when that situation improves.

 

I believe he will see fewer targets and thereby less opportunties (and catches) than 2 years ago because I believe McCoy and Maclin are more dangerous weapons and PHI will give them the ball more.

 

Jackson is on target for 62 catches. Last year he played 14 games and had 47 catches. The two years before he had 62 and 63 catches. He's right on target for where Reid seems to like to see him for touches.

 

Maclin and Avant are projected based upon numbers so far to catch 91 and 71 passes respectively. That's about 1 catch per game each more than they had last year. That makes sense as they mature and gain more experience that they get a bit more work, and that's exactly what is happening this year.

 

McCoy had 78 catches last year. This year he projects to 53 catches. That's a bit down and that difference seems to be going right to Maclin and Avant.

 

Now for the past 2 years and then this year projected forward for 16 games, the number of completions and attempts by PHI are the following:

 

2009 335/553

2010 348/561

2011 354/560

 

That's remarkably consistent. Of course, when you've got a top 10 passing O those past 2 seasons and your records have been 11-5 and 10-6 those years, there is much more incentive to remain somewhat constant rather than changing significantly. That's what PHI appears to be doing.

 

So, looking at the past 3 years in terms of both team numbers and individual numbers, there are only so many completions to go around. That number seems reasonably predictable. Jackson gets his 60 catches, Maclin and Avant seem to be accounting almost exactly for the catches that McCoy is projected to be down.

 

Where does that leave Celek? Pretty much static from last year, expecting 44 catches, give or take a couple. And surprise! - that's exactly where his progress so far this year sets him when projected forward for 16 games. And again, to get there he had a string of 2 big games last year with a bunch of blah or worse. And that's what is happening this year? Huh - 2 bigs games and a bunch of blah or worse before that.

 

So when you say that for "some reason" I don't believe his production will increase significantly, I point directly at recent history and what the Eagles have tried to do on O the past 2 1/2 years. 2 years ago Maclin, McCoy, and Avant weren't ready for bigger numbers, so Celek got to pick up the slack. Now that those 3 have matured, they have fallen into their niches and the data to date supports that completely.

 

That puts Celek on track for a 2010 year this year, not a 2009 year. That history and what PHI is doing on O those past 2 1/2 years gives us a lot more insight than just a 2 game sample that you want to rely on and then ignore the remainder of those past 2+ years.

 

Here's the question you really need to answer if what you are saying will come to pass - If Celek is going to get targeted more, whose numbers are going to suffer the remainder of the year? You're predicting that he'll average almost 3 more catches a game than he has the previous season and a half. That's about 25 more catches that you are projecting for the remainder of this season than he would otherwise have. Where do those catches come from? Whose production suffers so that Celek can move his way into being a top 10 FF TE again? McCoy's reduction is already accounted for, so you can't go there. Barring injury, Jackson's production isn't going to drop significantly, so don't look there. Who takes the hit for the rest of the year?

 

Now, I'm not saying that Celek can't possibly produce better - I'm saying that the numbers don't provide nearly as much support to the argument that he'lll remain at a higher production level, and rather show more support to that he'll regress back to what he has been the previous 5 weeks of the season and almost all of last season. For some reason...

Edited November 3, 2011 by Bronco Billy

[i_am_the_swammi]

I believe he will see fewer targets and thereby less opportunties (and catches) than 2 years ago because I believe McCoy and Maclin are more dangerous weapons and PHI will give them the ball more.

 

Jackson is on target for 62 catches. Last year he played 14 games and had 47 catches. The two years before he had 62 and 63 catches. He's right on target for where Reid seems to like to see him for touches.

 

Maclin and Avant are projected based upon numbers so far to catch 91 and 71 passes respectively. That's about 1 catch per game each more than they had last year. That makes sense as they mature and gain more experience that they get a bit more work, and that's exactly what is happening this year.

 

McCoy had 78 catches last year. This year he projects to 53 catches. That's a bit down and that difference seems to be going right to Maclin and Avant.

 

Now for the past 2 years and then this year projected forward for 16 games, the number of completions and attempts by PHI are the following:

 

2009 335/553

2010 348/561

2011 354/560

 

That's remarkably consistent. Of course, when you've got a top 10 passing O those past 2 seasons and your records have been 11-5 and 10-6 those years, there is much more incentive to remain somewhat constant rather than changing significantly. That's what PHI appears to be doing.

 

So, looking at the past 3 years in terms of both team numbers and individual numbers, there are only so many completions to go around. That number seems reasonably predictable. Jackson gets his 60 catches, Maclin and Avant seem to be accounting almost exactly for the catches that McCoy is projected to be down.

 

Where does that leave Celek? Pretty much static from last year, expecting 44 catches, give or take a couple. And surprise! - that's exactly where his progress so far this year sets him when projected forward for 16 games. And again, to get there he had a string of 2 big games last year with a bunch of blah or worse. And that's what is happening this year? Huh - 2 bigs games and a bunch of blah or worse before that.

 

So when you say that for "some reason" I don't believe his production will increase significantly, I point directly at recent history and what the Eagles have tried to do on O the past 2 1/2 years. 2 years ago Maclin, McCoy, and Avant weren't ready for bigger numbers, so Celek got to pick up the slack. Now that those 3 have matured, they have fallen into their niches and the data to date supports that completely.

 

That puts Celek on track for a 2010 year this year, not a 2009 year. That history and what PHI is doing on O those past 2 1/2 years gives us a lot more insight than just a 2 game sample that you want to rely on and then ignore the remainder of those past 2+ years.

 

Here's the question you really need to answer if what you are saying will come to pass - If Celek is going to get targeted more, whose numbers are going to suffer the remainder of the year? You're predicting that he'll average almost 3 more catches a game than he has the previous season and a half. That's about 25 more catches that you are projecting for the remainder of this season than he would otherwise have. Where do those catches come from? Whose production suffers so that Celek can move his way into being a top 10 FF TE again? McCoy's reduction is already accounted for, so you can't go there. Barring injury, Jackson's production isn't going to drop significantly, so don't look there. Who takes the hit for the rest of the year?

 

Now, I'm not saying that Celek can't possibly produce better - I'm saying that the numbers don't provide nearly as much support to the argument that he'lll remain at a higher production level, and rather show more support to that he'll regress back to what he has been the previous 5 weeks of the season and almost all of last season. For some reason...

 

[Judge Chamberlain Haller] "Son, that's a lucid, well-thought out argument....over-ruled"[/Judge Chamberlain Haller]

 

I can see the point you are trying to make, but you are only pointing to stats that you feel will support your argument. Which isn't surprising, since your trying to vet your side of the argument. However, the other side of the coin seems a lot more convincing.

 

So here goes:

 

1. You point to two years ago, and state that Celek saw more targets due to the Eagles not wanting to get the ball more to Maclin and McCoy. I object, and feel that worked against Celek more than in his favor as teams would key on him more than the younger players who were unproven. And yet he still was able to produce a 76-catch season.

 

2. While more weapons may decrease his looks slightly, it should lead to more open space, which is what you saw the last two games....teams doubling both Jackson and Maclin, and allowing Celek to abuse slow-footed LBs with his above-average speed and good hands.

 

3. You continue to neglect the fact that targets to Jackson, Maclin and McCoy went up last year because the targets to Celek went way down, due to the fact that he was not even out on routes. While it may have had something to do with the Eagles feeling more comfortable with the young guys, it had more to do with the fact that a primary weapon was taken away and forced to block.

 

4. You point to the last two games as being aberrations, while I point to the first five games as being a continuation of last year when the Eagles OL was not a gelled unit. Tack on injuries to Peters and deVan, and a preseason that was shortened due to the lockout, and this unit is just now playing into form. So much so that in recent games, they have been able to get the Celek out on routes and get him the ball. His 9 targets each of the last two games isn't by mistake....it was by design.

 

5. When the Eagles are clicking, they sustain drives by dinking and dunking their way down the field...its the nature of reid's offense. Because they were unable to do that last year, you saw a ton of big plays because they went for the home run more often than not. That was the sole reason Jackson had such a big year on so few catches. And a big part of the reason why the defense was worn down...they were on the field a ton because the Eagles would score so quickly. At the end of games, it would bite them hard when the big play wasn't there. This year, there have been very few shots down the field....much more short passes, which is why you see an increase in targets and catches for almost everyone (except McCoy, who has proven he can get those yards by simply handing the ball to him). A drive of 80 yards can be 1 reception for 80 yards (last year), or 10 plays at 10 yards each (this year, the return to normal). You've been seeing a bunch more of those 10-play drives, and that is a huge reason why there are more receptions to go around. And now Celek has been re-established in those looks as well, since he is no longer required to stay in and block as often.

[Bronco Billy]

[Judge Chamberlain Haller] "Son, that's a lucid, well-thought out argument....over-ruled"[/Judge Chamberlain Haller]

 

 

well done

[Bronco Billy]

I can see the point you are trying to make, but you are only pointing to stats that you feel will support your argument. Which isn't surprising, since your trying to vet your side of the argument. However, the other side of the coin seems a lot more convincing.

 

So here goes:

 

1. You point to two years ago, and state that Celek saw more targets due to the Eagles not wanting to get the ball more to Maclin and McCoy. I object, and feel that worked against Celek more than in his favor as teams would key on him more than the younger players who were unproven. And yet he still was able to produce a 76-catch season.

 

2. While more weapons may decrease his looks slightly, it should lead to more open space, which is what you saw the last two games....teams doubling both Jackson and Maclin, and allowing Celek to abuse slow-footed LBs with his above-average speed and good hands.

 

3. You continue to neglect the fact that targets to Jackson, Maclin and McCoy went up last year because the targets to Celek went way down, due to the fact that he was not even out on routes. While it may have had something to do with the Eagles feeling more comfortable with the young guys, it had more to do with the fact that a primary weapon was taken away and forced to block.

 

4. You point to the last two games as being aberrations, while I point to the first five games as being a continuation of last year when the Eagles OL was not a gelled unit. Tack on injuries to Peters and deVan, and a preseason that was shortened due to the lockout, and this unit is just now playing into form. So much so that in recent games, they have been able to get the Celek out on routes and get him the ball. His 9 targets each of the last two games isn't by mistake....it was by design.

 

5. When the Eagles are clicking, they sustain drives by dinking and dunking their way down the field...its the nature of reid's offense. Because they were unable to do that last year, you saw a ton of big plays because they went for the home run more often than not. That was the sole reason Jackson had such a big year on so few catches. And a big part of the reason why the defense was worn down...they were on the field a ton because the Eagles would score so quickly. At the end of games, it would bite them hard when the big play wasn't there. This year, there have been very few shots down the field....much more short passes, which is why you see an increase in targets and catches for almost everyone (except McCoy, who has proven he can get those yards by simply handing the ball to him). A drive of 80 yards can be 1 reception for 80 yards (last year), or 10 plays at 10 yards each (this year, the return to normal). You've been seeing a bunch more of those 10-play drives, and that is a huge reason why there are more receptions to go around. And now Celek has been re-established in those looks as well, since he is no longer required to stay in and block as often.

 

Now we've got a very good reason to revisit his results for the next few weeks.

 

Good discussion

Edited November 3, 2011 by Bronco Billy

[SecondString]

Just read this, he may be held out of practice, sounds like just a precaution but watch the reports (and updates on huddle S/B & predictions/projectios lists) last this week.

 

 

Brent Celek, TE PHI

News: Eagles coach Andy Reid said TE Brent Celek is dealing with a hip contusion and might be held out of practice Thursday. Philadelphia hosts Chicago in Week 9 on Monday night.

Analysis: This is the last thing Fantasy owners want to hear after Celek has finally re-emerged offensively and has been one of the most added players in CBSSports.com leagues this week. The good thing is that he gets an extra day to rest since Philadelphia doesn't play until Monday. Still plan to start Celek as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy TE and if anything changes, then we will let you know.

 

Thanks for the info. Gotta love how you can post a simple question like this and get the kind of detailed info/opinions in this thread...good work guys! Where else ya gonna get that, I ask you??? Where???

[stevegrab]

Thanks for the info. Gotta love how you can post a simple question like this and get the kind of detailed info/opinions in this thread...good work guys! Where else ya gonna get that, I ask you??? Where???

 

Meh, I just posted a little info, swammi and BB are doing all the analysis on this one. I'm coming down on swammis side right now but BB has some good info there as well.

 

So anyway, should I sit Gonzo for Celek

[i_am_the_swammi]

Meh, I just posted a little info, swammi and BB are doing all the analysis on this one. I'm coming down on swammis side right now but BB has some good info there as well.

 

So anyway, should I sit Gonzo for Celek

 

They both got about the same this week (13 points PPR). Was encouraging to see Celek continued to be targeted so much. When they play-fake to McCoy, it freezes the LBs and enables Celek a lot of time to get out into his route. They are using that 5-7 yard pass to Celek as essentially a running play.

 

With the mess that is DJax right now, it certainly looks like Celek, Maclin and McCoy are the primary targets in this offense...at least for the last three weeks.

[loaf]

If I hadn't seen this last week, I would have been blindly trotting out Jared Cook week after week. With 1 PPR league, this cat's was huge for me this week.

[SecondString]

If I hadn't seen this last week, I would have been blindly trotting out Jared Cook week after week. With 1 PPR league, this cat's was huge for me this week.

 

Yeah, I dropped Cook for him too...let it continue.

[stevegrab]

I stuck with Gonzo over Celek and it was the right move (no PPR). Not sure about the rest of the way, I may try to trade one, Gonzo probably gets me better value as he's produced all season while Celek is just starting to put up points.

[i_am_the_swammi]

I think his standing as barely being worthy of a TE2 in larger leagues is about right and he's going to start disappointing those who think he's finally reaching upward again.

 

 

I think he's a low-end TE worthy of a start in most 10-team leagues the rest of the way, the way he was envisioned two years ago.

 

 

Here's the question you really need to answer if what you are saying will come to pass - If Celek is going to get targeted more, whose numbers are going to suffer the remainder of the year? Barring injury, Jackson's production isn't going to drop significantly, so don't look there. Who takes the hit for the rest of the year?

 

Certainly looks like its been the enigma that is Jackson whose numbers have taken a hit. See below.

 

With the mess that is DJax right now, it certainly looks like Celek, Maclin and McCoy are the primary targets in this offense...at least for the last three weeks.

 

Since Week 6, Celek is the 5th ranked TE in PPR formats, behind only Gronk, Graham, Gates and Hernandez. In that stretch he has outperformed Witten, Finley, Gonzo, Pettigrew, Winslow, V. Davis, F. Davis, etc. Evne if you throw out Celek's big game yesterday, and everyone else's top game over that same stretch, Celek would be the 7th-ranked TE since Week 6.

 

Just thought it would be interesting to re-visit this thread....Those that started Celek this week, in a game where it was obvious the Eagles would need to work the middle of the field since Maclin/Jackson took turns on Revis Island, were smartly rewarded.

Edited December 19, 2011 by i_am_the_swammi