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week 9 wagering thread


kevinkris
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I like these threads, and lately I have been getting murdered so would be nice to see what other people are thinking this week.

 

I'm liking KC -4 . Alot of people think this is a trap game but I can see KC def holding mia to something like 10.

 

SF -3.5 Again, people see it as a trap game but I feel like SF's def is just too good and will easily cover.

 

GB -5.5 Chargers aren't looking so hot and GB is coming off a bye.

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I love SF at -3 1/2

Anytime I see a team favored by 3 1/2 I almost always jump on them, it a way Vegas gets you to pick against them.

 

I also like BUF to cover -2 against the NYJ

 

I'm also playing the moneyline for the Giants to beat NE outright, although I'm not as confident on this, I see NYG presenting some problems for NE particularly with the HYG pass rush.

 

I like ATL to cover -7 v.s. colts

 

The line I don't get is GB -5 1/2

This one seems so easy I am almost afraid it's one of those trap games, but I see GB winning by 2 TD's easy. I guess we'll see.

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I need to get on this thread and forum for that matter more often. I live in Vegas about 1 mile from my local casino and I'm at the sportbook all the time wagering on the NFL. I'm also having my best money season ever this year so I will try to share some thoughts weekly in this thread.

 

My priimary focus is usually trying to hit a ML parlay with 2-3 dogs (absoultley no more than 3)

 

I got sick of just missing w/ 7-8 on super teasers and 5-6 on teasers or even 4-5 on parlays so I decided to try and force myself to narrow down my picks to 2 maybe 3 max but increase my payouts by picking a couple dogs that I think my cover.

 

Last week I played Min and KC for 50 clams and it hit for a sweet 360...felt great! I had narrowed it down to Dallas, Pitt, KC and Min before ultimatley choosing KC and MInny. Obviously, wish I had Pitt in there also but truth is I was leaning towards Dal more than Pitt anyway and in the end I'm happy with the payout I got for only a 2 teamer.

 

This week my leans are... Cin ML, NYJ ML and Miami ML (I may bang out all 3 but will prob try to narrow down to only 2 of them)

 

I have already eliminated the Wash ML pick. That seems to be a popular pick this week due to the trends involved with this game but I just cant bring myself to back Wash in their current state of disarray.

 

I also don't like Bal this week. Falco played like ass again last week, even in the 2nd half when Bal was chasing chasing chasing he didn't look very good to me. I also don't think Rice will have a great game in Pitt... that game for me is either Pitt or pass for so I'll pass on it for my dog ML tik.

 

Den is a pass even though McFadden is still out and Bush is starting for the Raiders , I can see Denver possibly pulling the upset here but at the same time Oak has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game, its at home and in their minds there still a playoff team. I need to get a better feel for the Palmer/Housh Raiders before I wager on any OAK games again (either for or against them).

 

I'm also not jumping on that Indy banwagon this week....I'm not gonna be the guy chasing them all year trying to guess which game they will finally pay me on.

 

Cin ML in is my strongest lean so far and I feel a little bit better pairing them up with Miami (Miami played HARD against the Giants last week, they didnt look like a team that had given up at all) and besides Cin/Miami ML will pay better than Cin/NYJ.

 

Anyone have any thoughts on some good dog plays this week?

 

FYI- If I cant keep my paws off a parlay or teaser tik when I walk into the casino tomorrow some of my other strong leans this week are...

 

NE -8.5

GB -6

SF -3

Under 43 Den/Oak

Under 41 Hou/Clev

 

GL all!

Edited by Tally
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I'm going to see if I can stake myself for tomorrows games with some NCAA plays.

 

Iowa ML +155

 

Iowa +4

Kentucky+2

LSU +4.5

 

teaser parlay

 

 

I'm thinking Iowa takes care of Michigan at home, been actually pretty good on the big 10 this year though I have no idea why.

 

The 3 teamer features two home doggies I expect to win outright, and If I can hit the Iowa ML and get the early games I will have the big game tonight to hedge, or not before the game or preferably at halftime if there is an opportunity. I have some pro plays I am interested in but will wait until the smoke clears from the college plays to lock anything in.

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I'm going to see if I can stake myself for tomorrows games with some NCAA plays.

 

Iowa ML +155

 

Iowa +4

Kentucky+2

LSU +4.5

 

teaser parlay

 

 

I'm thinking Iowa takes care of Michigan at home, been actually pretty good on the big 10 this year though I have no idea why.

 

The 3 teamer features two home doggies I expect to win outright, and If I can hit the Iowa ML and get the early games I will have the big game tonight to hedge, or not before the game or preferably at halftime if there is an opportunity. I have some pro plays I am interested in but will wait until the smoke clears from the college plays to lock anything in.

 

I dont wager on NCAA only because feel like I'm putting my money behind someone's else's opinion and not my own knowledge of the teams/players/coachs...ect.

 

Anyway, from what I've read this week, it seems like alot of cappers are backing Iowa, alot of people seem to think it's a really strong pick this week... GL

Edited by Tally
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I dont wager on NCAA only because feel like I'm putting my money behind someone's else's opinion and not my own knowledge of the teams/players/coachs...ect.

 

Anyway, from what I've read this week, it seems like alot of cappers are backing Iowa, alot of people seem to think it's a really strong pick this week... GL

Iowa up 11 at the half, hate to get cute this early in the day but I'm going for the middle, almost have to here

 

Michigan -4.5 (2h)

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Had a plus day for the college games. Would have been stellar if I wouldn't have put so many units on Alabama. :tup: Here is what my money is on tomorrow

 

Dallas -7.5 1st half

Dallas -11.5

Colts +7

New England/Giants over 51

San Diego/Packers under 51

so dallas and then dallas.....

 

 

:wacko:

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I'm not sure Tebow getting yanked would preclude the Raiders from covering if you are leaning that way anyway, you would think the Broncos would already be well down by the time such a move would be made. Just my thoughts. Who knows?

 

Off a stellar college day 5-1-1 I am tempted to sit on the sidelines today, not just because I am well ahead for the week, but I just don't see a goldmine of plays that move me. That being said, when I'm winning, I usually just keep my foot on the gas until I hear the engine knocking so here is what I am doing today.

 

Buffalo -2.5

over 45

 

parlay

 

There seems to be a lot of good cappers on the Jets today, so maybe I am just blind. Maybe I am not dazzed by the 1000 yards rushing the Bills have given up to the Jets over the last 4 games. All I know is this, the Bills have made me money this year, and fading the Jets has been profitable as well. You put those two things together and I have no choice here. I do not think the Jets will win this game. Everybody keeps expecting the Bills to fold, but they aren't folding. This is a big game for teh Jets. But it is just as big for the Bills. Once they have a win each over the Pats and the Jets they are a leg up on tie-breakers and no worse than break-even for the season. This is a huge game for the Bills. And I will bet them until they prove unworthy.

 

I was hedging a bit on making that play, but when I saw Hammerin Hank on the Jets that pushed me over the edge. Play on. And I play the parlay because if the Bills win it's going over, might as well get paid 2,5 to 1.

 

And here is my, "I'm ahead so I'm going for the kill shot" that always seem to work out so well :wacko:

 

NO-9

Hou -10.5

Dall -11

 

parlay/ 10 point teaser

 

I usually play parlays alongside teasers, but this time I'm going with the 10 pointer. I figure these 3 teams are pretty rock solid to win at home today to hit the teaser, and if I get lucky they will all cover the number and send my into rarified air for the weekend.

 

Not really knocked out by any of the late games but I'll be hoping for a better number on Pittsburgh tonight if I can keep my head above water today.

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Got a 3 team teaser where you just get 6 points but nice odds if you win.Looking great on Atl -1 , jets / Buff under 51. Shaky on Dallas -5

 

also have the Giants team total over 20.5

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I'm going to see if I can stake myself for tomorrows games with some NCAA plays.

 

Iowa ML +155

 

Iowa +4

Kentucky+2

LSU +4.5

 

teaser parlay

 

 

I'm thinking Iowa takes care of Michigan at home, been actually pretty good on the big 10 this year though I have no idea why.

 

The 3 teamer features two home doggies I expect to win outright, and If I can hit the Iowa ML and get the early games I will have the big game tonight to hedge, or not before the game or preferably at halftime if there is an opportunity. I have some pro plays I am interested in but will wait until the smoke clears from the college plays to lock anything in.

 

nice work- altough still have no idea how they did not rule that a Mich TD, anyway.........

 

afternoon games I am on....

 

Ten -3 I think Cin comes back to earth here

NYG +9.5 too many points

 

leaning........

Stl pick - line is on the move, and STL is the better team vs a rook

SD +6 - fishy as hell

 

thoughts fellas?

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nice work- altough still have no idea how they did not rule that a Mich TD, anyway.........

 

afternoon games I am on....

 

Ten -3 I think Cin comes back to earth here

NYG +9.5 too many points

 

leaning........

Stl pick - line is on the move, and STL is the better team vs a rook

SD +6 - fishy as hell

 

thoughts fellas?

 

I just took STL +1 and under parlayed at 42 1/2

 

I stated earlier, I see GB winning by 2 TD's

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just got back from my local, my wagers are in...

 

2 team ML parlay- Cinn and Miami

100 clams to win 533

 

straight- NE -8.5

100 clams to win 91

 

thats it for me this week. GL to all!

 

Why am I such a puss? Should went with my original gut instinct and went with the 3 teamer that icluded Jets ML... oh well, still a strong week, I'm happy.... Can't wait to start targeting some of nexts weeks dogies.

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Why am I such a puss? Should went with my original gut instinct and went with the 3 teamer that icluded Jets ML... oh well, still a strong week, I'm happy.... Can't wait to start targeting some of nexts weeks dogies.

 

yeah very nice picks.

 

I got two out of three this week so not bad.

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wow...remind me not to check this thread next week before making bets... :tup:

I finally quit posting my bets and got out of my slump. funny how that happens, LoL.

 

I must say that the Houston Texans have been money in the first Q. Thanks to them and Atlanta I finally got back to even for the year, after throwing the farm at the Saints the other week. :wacko:

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