Rethinking WR-WR-X?

[BleedingGreen]

I was going to reply to the Nicks and AJ post, and it turned into this. I thought I'd share, it's interesting to me when thinking about my draft next year.:

 

I went WR heavy in both leagues, the trend seemed to be going this way, and it's been an unmitigated disaster. WRs are now seemingly as injury prone as RBs, and with all the unpredictability they always had.

 

Top WRs before the season (huddle ranks) and their current non-PPR, performance (1 for 10, 6 for TD) ranks:

 

1. Andre Johnson - now #40

2. Calvin Johnson - now #1

3. Roddy White - now #21

4. Vincent Jackson - now #16

5. Mike Wallace - now #4

6. Miles Austin - now #23

7. Hakeem Nicks - now #10

8. Larry Fitzgerald - now #11

9. Mike Williams - now #65

10. Greg Jennings - now #5

11. Brandon Lloyd - now #42

12. Brandon Marshall - now #22

 

With Hakeem Nicks injured and Fitzgerald kolbed and now skeltoned, they're underperforming and sinking fast as well. So basically, that's 3 hits out of 12. Unless you got Calvin Johnson, Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings, you're hating life.

 

Now do the same for RB, it's actually a lot better...

 

1. Adrian Peterson - now #1

2. Ray Rice - now #5

3. Arian Foster - now #6

4. Chris Johnson - now abducted by aliens.

5. Jamaal Charles - hurt

6. Rashard Mendenhall - now #21

7. LeSean McCoy - now #2

8. Darren McFadden - still #8 but sinking.

9. MJD - #12

10. Matt Forte - now #4

11. Frank Gore - now #11

12. Steven Jackson - now #16

 

About 8 or so of those 12 guys are hits, performing roughly to their ADP.

Edited November 5, 2011 by BleedingGreen

[keggerz]

any strategy can work...you just have to get the right guys and be lucky enough for them to avoid injury...yes injuries to early picks can hurt but if you draft well it shouldn't disable your team...wr/wr came about because of value, and as long as that value remains intact then so will the strategy.

[keggerz]

Using the SOFA IDP league (1 pt/recp) Marshall is ranked 17th with 97.8 points...#12 WR has 106.3 points..a difference of 8.50 points....so if you just look at rankings you will see one thing but if you look deeper you will see that there are times when the differnce between X and Y isn't all that much.

[chester]

In a 10 team, I went WR 1, 2, 3.

A Johnson, C Johnson, M Wallace.

 

RBs ended being S Greene (5), C Benson (7), Addai (8), Sproles (16!).

 

I have a losing record.

[detlef]

any strategy can work...you just have to get the right guys and be lucky enough for them to avoid injury...yes injuries to early picks can hurt but if you draft well it shouldn't disable your team...wr/wr came about because of value, and as long as that value remains intact then so will the strategy.

I think the OP shows that the "value" wasn't there to go WR/WR. At least not this year. And I showed the same argument for leaning RB early on in the thread started by someone who thought that the data was supporting the fact that this may have been the year to take a stud QB early. But it didn't.

 

And, if you're going to speak of "value", you have to distance yourself from talking about getting the "right guys". "Value" needs to transcend that. Of course, any strategy works if you "get the right guys". You could take a kicker in the first round if you also ended up with Matt Forte, Fred Jackson, Cam Newton, Wes Welker, Steve Smith, and AJ Green (which you certainly could have).

 

The whole premise of what sorts of positions to target at various stages of the draft (not suggesting that anyone get crazy about it and completely lock in to anything, of course) implies that we ultimately don't know exactly which guys are going to be the ones to get, so we're taking the safest bets early and the less safe bets late. And the data shows that, more than any other position, the RBs taken off the board early make up the eventual leaders list.

[coordi88]

weird i have calvin, greene, benson, addai and drafted mike williams and am 4-4

[delfamdelfam]

I went Andre, VJAX, and M. Austin. RB's where Bradshaw, Ingram, Addai, Bush.

 

Not only did Andre get hurt, VJAX and Austin are underperforming, and Bradshaw and Ingram are hurt. Still 5-3 though but going downhill from a 4-0 start.

[Bier Meister]

weird i have calvin, greene, benson, addai and drafted mike williams and am 4-4

 

i imagine you aren't telling us the entire story..... my bet is that later draft picks have shined (or ww)

Edited November 5, 2011 by Bier Meister

[cbs0121]

I've just never been comfortable with a WR heavy draft strategy. I was almost ready to do it this year but I drafted in the top six in both of my leagues and just couldn't pass up a stud RB. One of my friends tends to go WR-QB-WR or WR-WR-QB each year he's in the bottom half of a draft and when his sleeper RBs hit, he's loaded. When they don't, he misses the playoffs. You can win with it, but it seems boom or bust to me. This year it's probably more bust than boom unfortunately.

[Clubfoothead]

any strategy can work...you just have to get the right guys and be lucky

 

+1

[coordi88]

i imagine you aren't telling us the entire story..... my bet is that later draft picks have shined (or ww)

 

foster

calvin

vjax

mike williams

greene

ingram

not sure how it drafted out from there but had

benson

matt ryan

marcedes lewis

gostkowski

eagles

meachem

lance moore

hines ward

and jonathan stewart

 

dropped most of that team, and then dropped most the people i picked up. my team has been a crazy case of musical chairs. traded foster for matt stafford and BJGE before his week 6 ravens game, and threw in dalton since I was going to drop him anyways. dunno how i am 4-4, a lot of luck, that is for sure... won last week because of antonio brown and jackie battle. Can say this site has really helped me stay ahead of the league on the ww. Its a pretty tough league, with everyone very active in offering trades and attacking the waivers.

 

lol i guess i didn't go wr wr.. i just never considered foster truely part of my team, and never got invested in him like the other starters.

Edited November 5, 2011 by coordi88

[Bronco Billy]

I think the OP shows that the "value" wasn't there to go WR/WR. At least not this year. And I showed the same argument for leaning RB early on in the thread started by someone who thought that the data was supporting the fact that this may have been the year to take a stud QB early. But it didn't.

 

And, if you're going to speak of "value", you have to distance yourself from talking about getting the "right guys". "Value" needs to transcend that. Of course, any strategy works if you "get the right guys". You could take a kicker in the first round if you also ended up with Matt Forte, Fred Jackson, Cam Newton, Wes Welker, Steve Smith, and AJ Green (which you certainly could have).

 

The whole premise of what sorts of positions to target at various stages of the draft (not suggesting that anyone get crazy about it and completely lock in to anything, of course) implies that we ultimately don't know exactly which guys are going to be the ones to get, so we're taking the safest bets early and the less safe bets late. And the data shows that, more than any other position, the RBs taken off the board early make up the eventual leaders list.

 

You know, I'm really starting to warm up to you, GB. Two great posts in one week. Who'da thunk it?

[Big Country]

The guy that drafted Calvin in the first and Wallace in the second an landed Fred Jackson in the 6th or 7th is going to be here next year talking about how great a strategy going WR-WR is.

 

The guy that went AJ and White and followed that up with a Shonn Greene or a Mark Ingram is going to be here telling us how he'll never do WR-WR again.

 

 

 

Yes, any style can succeed if you get the right players.

 

 

I will still advocate that through statistical analysis you can get a better idea of what positions are more likely to perform (or outperform their peers), thus giving you an edge in terms of strategizing what position to take where. Looking at the three year trends as we did countless times this offseason it was clear that waiting on QB and being very careful at going WR early was called for. Now, obviously if you got Charles or Chris Johnson, your attitude may be one of saying screw RBs, but the fact remains that statistically the top RBs outperform their peers by a wider margin than the QBs and WRs do.

[kingfish247]

Top WRs before the season (huddle ranks) and their current non-PPR, performance (1 for 10, 6 for TD) ranks:

 

1. Andre Johnson - now #40

2. Calvin Johnson - now #1

3. Roddy White - now #21

4. Vincent Jackson - now #16

5. Mike Wallace - now #4

6. Miles Austin - now #23

7. Hakeem Nicks - now #10

8. Larry Fitzgerald - now #11

9. Mike Williams - now #65

10. Greg Jennings - now #5

11. Brandon Lloyd - now #42

12. Brandon Marshall - now #22

Kinda par for the course with WRs. DMD's book covers WRs and Huddle does (or did in the past) those repeatability preseason articles. This is why I've always been a little skeptical of the strategy. The high rate of turnover suggests there will be some top 10 and 20 WRs available well into the draft and if you take them early and often you're more likely to miss. Especially in the 5-12 WR range.

 

I haven't seen an updated analysis of this but it sure seems to hold true and the repeatability rate may actually be getting worse.

[Tripleshot]

The guy that drafted Calvin in the first and Wallace in the second an landed Fred Jackson in the 6th or 7th is going to be here next year talking about how great a strategy going WR-WR is.

 

The guy that went AJ and White and followed that up with a Shonn Greene or a Mark Ingram is going to be here telling us how he'll never do WR-WR again.

 

 

 

Yes, any style can succeed if you get the right players.

 

This. I drafted Rice, Calvin and Roddy in my first three picks last year and won my league handily. Except it was Arian Foster, who I drafted later, and Brandon Lloyd, grabbed off the ww, who won me that championship as much as/moreso than Rice, Calvin and Roddy.

[aruss]

1. Calvin Johnson

2. Roddy White

3. Mike Tolbert

4. Cedric Benson

5. Jason Witten

6. Dallas Clark

7. Matt Stafford

8. Mark Ingram

 

And I don't remember the rest

 

6-2

Edited November 6, 2011 by aruss

[Grits and Shins]

I went Megatron + Fitzgerald in the first two rounds ... those picks were fine ... I missed on others.

 

I've managed a 4-4 record ... which is not bad when you consider there is one 6-2 team (one of his losses is to me), four 5-3 teams, four 4-4 teams, one 3-5 team, one 2-6 team and one 1-7 team.

 

Although right now I am out of the playoffs and have Megatron off this week ... having to roll with Laurent Robinson Playing one of the 5-3 teams so a win this week could be big.