WR catch percentages

[Bronco Billy]

Thought this might draw more interest and didn't want it hidden in a thread that may not get a ton of attention (plus I'm an arrogant ass and love drawing attention to myself ). Some of this stuff is interesting and might be worthy of some good discussion

 

Text of the post:

 

To put more of an emphasis on my point, here are the current 2011 WR catch percentages by team, minimum 15 passes (stats courtesy of Football Outsiders)

 

 

Player	Team	Passes	Yards	TD	Catch %L.Fitzgerald	ARI	58	603	2	59%E.Doucet	ARI	48	359	3	58%A.Roberts	ARI	30	133	0	43%J.Jones	ATL	42	358	0	60%H.Douglas	ATL	29	199	0	59%R.White	ATL	69	425	3	57%A.Boldin	BAL	62	539	2	55%T.Smith	BAL	33	326	3	45%D.Nelson	BUF	42	366	2	74%S.Johnson	BUF	62	470	4	63%D.Jones	BUF	31	174	1	52%B.LaFell	CAR	24	277	2	71%S.Smith	CAR	73	919	4	63%L.Naanee	CAR	45	255	0	49%R.Williams	CHI	19	190	1	68%D.Sanzenbacher	CHI	33	172	3	58%J.Knox	CHI	35	348	0	54%D.Hester	CHI	44	306	1	48%A.Caldwell	CIN	36	173	1	58%A.Green	CIN	59	532	5	56%J.Simpson	CIN	43	367	1	53%G.Little	CLE	52	268	0	56%J.Cribbs	CLE	34	248	2	50%M.Massoquoi	CLE	37	239	2	49%L.Robinson	DAL	28	336	1	68%M.Austin	DAL	42	350	4	62%D.Bryant	DAL	38	367	4	58%K.Ogletree	DAL	18	116	0	56%E.Decker	DEN	56	359	5	54%B.Lloyd	DEN	58	410	1	53%E.Royal	DEN	27	110	0	44%M.Willis	DEN	18	129	1	44%C.Johnson	DET	74	804	11	64%N.Burleson	DET	44	245	1	59%T.Young	DET	38	275	1	50%J.Jones	GB	25	326	3	76%G.Jennings	GB	58	677	5	72%J.Nelson	GB	35	465	4	69%D.Driver	GB	22	107	2	59%K.Walter	HOU	33	287	2	70%A.Johnson	HOU	37	352	2	68%D.Mason	HOU	29	154	0	62%J.Jones	HOU	37	265	1	49%P.Garcon	IND	70	606	4	53%R.Wayne	IND	71	487	1	49%A.Collie	IND	47	183	0	43%M.Thomas	JAC	59	326	1	53%J.Hill	JAC	43	313	3	44%M.Sims-Walker	JAC	33	150	0	36%S.Breaston	KC	33	335	2	67%D.Bowe	KC	63	559	4	52%D.Bess	MIA	46	323	0	59%B.Marshall	MIA	68	579	1	56%B.Hartline	MIA	33	257	1	55%M.Jenkins	MIN	40	362	3	73%P.Harvin	MIN	44	359	0	70%B.Berrian	MIN	23	91	0	30%D.Aromashodu	MIN	24	153	1	29%W.Welker	NE	83	824	6	69%D.Branch	NE	46	405	3	65%C.Ochocinco	NE	16	136	0	56%L.Moore	NO	41	338	2	73%R.Meachem	NO	38	290	3	71%M.Colston	NO	42	424	3	69%D.Henderson	NO	26	305	2	62%V.Cruz	NYG	42	497	4	67%H.Nicks	NYG	61	552	3	61%M.Manningham	NYG	45	290	1	53%J.Kerley	NYJ	15	82	1	60%S.Holmes	NYJ	41	311	3	54%P.Burress	NYJ	45	243	5	40%D.Heyward-Bey	OAK	49	434	1	55%D.Hagan	OAK	20	114	0	55%J.Ford	OAK	22	114	0	50%D.Moore	OAK	35	212	2	40%J.Maclin	PHI	54	543	4	74%J.Avant	PHI	43	413	0	72%D.Jackson	PHI	50	487	2	54%M.Wallace	PIT	59	839	5	73%H.Ward	PIT	39	258	2	67%A.Brown	PIT	63	431	1	54%E.Sanders	PIT	35	243	2	51%P.Crayton	SD	15	113	0	73%M.Floyd	SD	36	401	1	53%V.Jackson	SD	52	472	3	52%D.Baldwin	SEA	38	403	2	66%B.Obomanu	SEA	34	242	2	62%S.Rice	SEA	40	366	1	60%G.Tate	SEA	18	88	1	56%M.Williams	SEA	18	89	1	50%J.Morgan	SF	20	220	1	75%M.Crabtree	SF	46	263	1	54%G.Salas	STL	29	206	0	69%B.Gibson	STL	37	241	1	51%D.Alexander	STL	39	296	1	41%D.Briscoe	TB	20	196	1	80%P.Parker	TB	36	324	2	67%A.Benn	TB	25	243	2	60%M.Williams	TB	63	319	1	49%N.Washington	TEN	48	433	2	69%K.Britt	TEN	26	290	3	65%L.Hawkins	TEN	32	151	0	53%D.Williams	TEN	29	159	2	48%S.Moss	WAS	43	301	2	58%J.Gaffney	WAS	50	433	1	54%A.Armstrong	WAS	18	47	1	28%

 

 

Now, some of the numbers have to do with how the WR is used. A slot WR getting thrown shorter passes will have an advantage over WRs who get a much higher percentage of deep passes, since deep passes are more difficult to complete, but when it comes down to it coaches and QBs are going to give more love to WRs who are more reliable.

 

Look at some of the names on the list and look where they are on their respective teams. That helps to explain some of the woes this year of guys like Nelson and Brown, as well as both M Williams, Plax, etc

Edited November 5, 2011 by Bronco Billy

[Potman]

Good stuff, thanks for posting it. It would be interesting to also see the % of targets each player received in addition to this.

[Bronco Billy]

Names that jump out as being unsung/undervalued guys who are doing very well:

 

D Nelson BUF

B LaFell CAR

R Williams CHI

A Caldwell CIN

L Robinson DAL

J Jones GB

K Walter HOU

S Breaston KC (was near the bottom [bad] of the drop % list last year)

V Cruz NYG

J Kerley NYJ

D Heyward-Bey OAK !!!

P Crayton SD

D Baldwin SEA

G Salas STL

D Briscoe TB

 

You wonder if some of these guys will start getting more targets and have more impact in the 2nd half of the season - and maybe helping out FF teams as FF WR3s as they head into the home stretch and the playoffs

 

Names that are surprisingly low, or lower on their teams than one would expect based upon name recognition or preseason expectations:

 

J Knox CHI

M Massoquoi CLE

D Bryant DAL

J Nelson GB

R Wayne IND

D Bowe KC

C Ochocinco Johnson NE

M Manningham NYG

P Burress NYJ

D Moore OAK

D Jackson PHI (though he was the worst in the league in drops last season)

A Brown PIT

E Sanders PIT

V Jackson SD

M Williams SEA

M Crabtree SF

D Alexander STL

M Williams SEA

A Armstrong WAS (Yikes!!! wow-factor catch %)

 

These might help explain why some of these guys have failed to meet expectations of FF owners, and you can't help but wonder if or when teams will stop throwing the ball their way much - these might be guys worth trading to pick up some of the guys on the top list

 

Thoughts?

[Bronco Billy]

Good stuff, thanks for posting it. It would be interesting to also see the % of targets each player received in addition to this.

 

This may help. Targets per game, by team, for WRs:

 

Player	TM	T/GLarry Fitzgerald	ARI	8.3	Early Doucet	ARI	6.9	Andre Roberts	ARI	4.4Roddy White	ATL	9.9	Julio Jones	ATL	8.2	Harry Douglas	ATL	4.1Anquan Boldin	BAL	9.0	Torrey Smith	BAL	4.9Steve Johnson	BUF	8.6	Donald Jones	BUF	6.2	David Nelson	BUF	6.1	Naaman Roosevelt	BUF	2.4Steve Smith	CAR	9.1	Legedu Naanee	CAR	5.5	Brandon LaFell	CAR	3.0Devin Hester	CHI	6.3	Johnny Knox	CHI	5.0	Dane Sanzenbacher	CHI	4.7	Roy Williams	CHI	3.2A.J. Green	CIN	8.3	Jerome Simpson	CIN	6.1	Andre Caldwell	CIN	5.1Greg Little	CLE	7.3	Mohamed Massaquoi	CLE	6.2	Josh Cribbs	CLE	4.9Miles Austin	DAL	8.4	Dez Bryant	DAL	6.3	Laurent Robinson	DAL	5.6	Kevin Ogletree	DAL	2.4Eric Decker	DEN	8.0	Eddie Royal	DEN	6.5	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	6.5	Matt Willis	DEN	2.6Calvin Johnson	DET	9.2	Nate Burleson	DET	5.5	Titus Young	DET	4.8Greg Jennings	GB	8.3	Jordy Nelson	GB	5.0	James Jones	GB	3.4	Donald Driver	GB	3.1	Randall Cobb	GB	1.7Andre Johnson	HOU	9.2	Kevin Walter	HOU	4.7	Jacoby Jones	HOU	4.6	Derrick Mason	HOU	3.6Reggie Wayne	IND	8.9	Pierre Garcon	IND	8.6	Austin Collie	IND	5.9Mike Thomas	JAX	7.2	Jason Hill	JAX	6.0	Mike Sims-Walker	JAX	5.5	Jarett Dillard	JAX	2.0Dwayne Bowe	KC	9.0	Jonathan Baldwin	KC	6.5	Steve Breaston	KC	4.7Brandon Marshall	MIA	9.6	Davone Bess	MIA	6.6	Brian Hartline	MIA	4.7Percy Harvin	MIN	5.4	Michael Jenkins	MIN	4.9	Bernard Berrian	MIN	4.8	Devin Aromashodu	MIN	3.0Wes Welker	NE	11.9	Deion Branch	NE	6.6	Chad Ochocinco	NE	2.3Marques Colston	NO	7.0	Lance Moore	NO	5.9	Robert Meachem	NO	4.8	Devery Henderson	NO	3.2Hakeem Nicks	NYG	8.7	Mario Manningham	NYG	7.5	Victor Cruz	NYG	6.0Plaxico Burress	NYJ	6.4	Santonio Holmes	NYJ	5.7	Jeremy Kerley	NYJ	2.1Darrius Heyward-Bey	OAK	8.2	Denarius Moore	OAK	5.0	Jacoby Ford	OAK	4.4	Derek Hagan	OAK	3.3Jeremy Maclin	PHI	7.7	DeSean Jackson	PHI	7.0	Jason Avant	PHI	6.1Antonio Brown	PIT	7.9	Mike Wallace	PIT	7.2	Hines Ward	PIT	5.6	Emmanuel Sanders	PIT	4.4Vincent Jackson	SD	7.4	Malcom Floyd	SD	5.1	Patrick Crayton	SD	3.0Sidney Rice	SEA	8.0	Doug Baldwin	SEA	5.4	Ben Obomanu	SEA	4.9	Mike Williams	SEA	3.6	Golden Tate	SEA	2.6Michael Crabtree	SF	7.7	Braylon Edwards	SF	4.7	Josh Morgan	SF	4.0	Ted Ginn	SF	2.0Brandon Lloyd	STL	9.7	Danario Alexander	STL	7.8	Brandon Gibson	STL	6.2	Greg Salas	STL	5.8Mike Williams	TB	9.1	Preston Parker	TB	5.0	Arrelious Benn	TB	3.6	Dezmon Briscoe	TB	2.9Kenny Britt	TEN	8.7	Nate Washington	TEN	6.9	Damian Williams	TEN	4.8	Lavelle Hawkins	TEN	4.7Santana Moss	WAS	7.2	Jabar Gaffney	WAS	6.9	Anthony Armstrong	WAS	3.6	Terrence Austin	WAS	2.3

 

[Seahawk]

Names that jump out as being unsung/undervalued guys who are doing very well:

 

D Nelson BUF

B LaFell CAR

R Williams CHI

A Caldwell CIN

L Robinson DAL

J Jones GB

K Walter HOU

S Breaston KC (was near the bottom [bad] of the drop % list last year)

V Cruz NYG

J Kerley NYJ

D Heyward-Bey OAK !!!

P Crayton SD

D Baldwin SEA

G Salas STL

D Briscoe TB

 

You wonder if some of these guys will start getting more targets and have more impact in the 2nd half of the season - and maybe helping out FF teams as FF WR3s as they head into the home stretch and the playoffs

 

Thoughts?

 

Most of these guys are on here because they are already helping there team through the first half because of injuries so there average targets should stay about the same at least for these guys:

 

Cruz (Nicks, Manningham and Hixon)

Salas (Amendola) this might change as he was dropping balls left and right but now seems to have fixed his hands.

Baldwin (M. Williams and Rice out)

Kerley (Mason traded, could change but the fact that the Jets have stated they are going to run it doesn't make him that appealing)

Walter (A.Johnson out)

Crayton (M. Floyd, Gates out)

L. Robinson (Austin out plus that weird game vs Philly)

 

The other problem is that some simply don't get enough looks week in week out to make them fantasy relevant. such as LeFall, Briscoe (fourth in the peaking order), R. Williams (he's been there #1 receiver statically his stats are awful)

 

I'd really like to see if this bunch can keep up with there first half production.

A Caldwell CIN

L Robinson DAL

J Jones GB

D Baldwin SEA

 

Nelson, Jones and Heyward Bay really catch my eye when looking at your sheet. Thanks for showing it.

[Potman]

Wow, Mike Williams (TB) getting 9 targets a game but only catching less than 50%, explains a lot.

[coordi88]

Mike Williams leads the league handily in dropped balls, bad passes, and ball deflections

[Jolly Rodgers]

Mike Williams leads the league handily in dropped balls, bad passes, and ball deflections

 

I actually think he is 4th...

[Bronco Billy]

Wow, Mike Williams (TB) getting 9 targets a game but only catching less than 50%, explains a lot.

 

It's starting to look like they're getting tired of his inconsistency. Morris is making noise about getting the ball more to Benn, and Benn's YAC has looked great. Makes sense. I think Williams is going to start losing targets that go right to Benn starting tomorrow and going forward.