Endzone Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Seems like everyone's on the Pats to push the spread to 17 to 17.5 points against the Chiefs. Is this a trap game or can the Pats cover? So much unknow with untested Chiefs QB playing in Pat's backyard. I've been going back and forth on trying to pick a side but leaning to going against what everyone thinks will be a blood bath and hope htat the Chiefs can cover ala Tampa Bay vs Packers yesterday. Any thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LooGie Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 (edited) Seems like everyone's on the Pats to push the spread to 17 to 17.5 points against the Chiefs. Is this a trap game or can the Pats cover? So much unknow with untested Chiefs QB playing in Pat's backyard. I've been going back and forth on trying to pick a side but leaning to going against what everyone thinks will be a blood bath and hope htat the Chiefs can cover ala Tampa Bay vs Packers yesterday. Any thoughts? In my opinion, I'd take the chiefs +17. If it was 12 or 13 like it started, I'd take the Pats. Personally when i did my research, I figured out that NE averages 28.78 a game, and KC avgs 15.67. However, KC gives up on avg, 3 more points than their opponents average, and NE gives up 1 more point than their opponents average. In other words, NE averages giving up 23 points a game, but all their opponents this year have averaged 22 points a game, so NE gives each team an extra point over what they usually average. Same thing for KC. They average giving up 24 points, but their opponents average 21 points a game, so KC gives up an extra 3 points. Based on that, I see both teams doing what they usually do, which puts NE 30, KC 17. Worst case NE 35 KC 17. that's cutting to close to the spread, but remember, this is the NFL. it's tough to lose (or win) by 20 points. edit: math are suck Edited November 21, 2011 by LooGie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooby's Hubby Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 (edited) the opposite of all logic says take the under. if I had to, I would put my bet on the under (thank goodness I don;t have to) Edited November 22, 2011 by Scooby's Hubby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 MNF at New England. Backup QB in for the Chiefs. Lay the pts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 MNF at New England. Backup QB in for the Chiefs. Lay the pts. +1 34-10 sounds right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 +1 34-10 sounds right That's how I'm playing it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chloroform Rx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I've been going back and forth on trying to pick a side Then don't bet. Period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 hopped on over 46.5 for some gambling entertainment........... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theprofessor Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 hopped on over 46.5 for some gambling entertainment........... If KC can score 10 then that's a sure winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 MNF at New England. Backup QB in for the Chiefs. Lay the pts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 If KC can score 10 then that's a sure winner. or not - what a snoozer Pats just aren't that good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LooGie Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 In my opinion, I'd take the chiefs +17. If it was 12 or 13 like it started, I'd take the Pats. Personally when i did my research, I figured out that NE averages 28.78 a game, and KC avgs 15.67. However, KC gives up on avg, 3 more points than their opponents average, and NE gives up 1 more point than their opponents average. In other words, NE averages giving up 23 points a game, but all their opponents this year have averaged 22 points a game, so NE gives each team an extra point over what they usually average. Same thing for KC. They average giving up 24 points, but their opponents average 21 points a game, so KC gives up an extra 3 points. Based on that, I see both teams doing what they usually do, which puts NE 30, KC 17. Worst case NE 35 KC 17. that's cutting to close to the spread, but remember, this is the NFL. it's tough to lose (or win) by 20 points. edit: math are suck is what I woulda said if i forgot the starting QB for KC was out... i totally forgot about that little "key to the game" FWIW, and believe me, its worth NOTHING, but minus a few backup type turn overs in the redzone, and my pick would be almost ver batim. But then again, I forgot a team LOST ITS STARTING QB, so i deserve NO credit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexgaddis Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I would parlay the Pats and the under...no way KC scores more than 3 points in this game... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooby's Hubby Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 the opposite of all logic says take the under. if I had to, I would put my bet on the under (thank goodness I don;t have to) so obvious, you always do what Vegas doesn't want you to do ... hopped on over 46.5 for some gambling entertainment........... how is losing entertaining? If KC can score 10 then that's a sure winner. even if they did score 10, it would not have made the over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 so obvious, you always do what Vegas doesn't want you to do ... how is losing entertaining? even if they did score 10, it would not have made the over. comments from docchbuckets in the peanut gallery that didn't bet the game, good times.... so obivous, well done hubby The reality is Palko and or Haley aren't so inept the Chefs easily could have and should have put up 17+ points...... they didn't and that's is the way it goes. and your math skills are outstanding by the way..... congrats to the Pats/U winners - nice call. moving on- let's tak Turkey day games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooby's Hubby Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 You are so easy to rile up ... I did bet it merely b/c you vetgas tools were so confident it convinced me further. And I tried to show you the way so you only have to blame yourself. When will you ever learn the db is you (Money says this riles you up more)? The real doochebucket is the guy who bets as Vegas tells him to. Those in my circle knew better, we are the ones on the win streak. Please read the following and use it wisely: ALWAYS DO THE OPPOSITE OF THE OBVIOUS BET - IT IS VEGAS' TRAP. Everyone and their dog wanted to take the over, so you take the under. Pretty simple. Please tell me the rest of your bets this week so that I can take the opposite. (Rile) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 You are so easy to rile up ... I did bet it merely b/c you vetgas tools were so confident it convinced me further. And I tried to show you the way so you only have to blame yourself. When will you ever learn the db is you (Money says this riles you up more)? The real doochebucket is the guy who bets as Vegas tells him to. Those in my circle knew better, we are the ones on the win streak. Please read the following and use it wisely: ALWAYS DO THE OPPOSITE OF THE OBVIOUS BET - IT IS VEGAS' TRAP. Everyone and their dog wanted to take the over, so you take the under. Pretty simple. Please tell me the rest of your bets this week so that I can take the opposite. (Rile) oh, ok, I got it- I had no idea it was that simple I made small play for the hell of it - and ur right few things bother me as much as that guy saying I told you so after a game that they didn't bet on. I will gladly post my plays for the week - I am much more confident in NCAA football/hoops than the NFL- so I need all the help I can get, please post yours and your circle of smart guy plays - TIA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooby's Hubby Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 (edited) oh, ok, I got it- I had no idea it was that simple I made small play for the hell of it - and ur right few things bother me as much as that guy saying I told you so after a game that they didn't bet on. I will gladly post my plays for the week - I am much more confident in NCAA football/hoops than the NFL- so I need all the help I can get, please post yours and your circle of smart guy plays - TIA I will trade you my pro picks for your college picks (I cannot keep up with College so well, too many teams). Maybe we can make each other some scratch. I will also say that it is easier to make decisions when you have the opposite view to bounce your ideas and reasonings off of. Sometimes it is the only way to clear the Vegas fog. Think positive Moriarity (Kelly's Heroes), we may just be a good team, afterall. Edited November 22, 2011 by Scooby's Hubby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I will trade you my pro picks for your college picks (I cannot keep up with College so well, too many teams). Maybe we can make each other some scratch. I will also say that it is easier to make decisions when you have the opposite view to bounce your ideas and reasonings off of. Sometimes it is the only way to clear the Vegas fog. Think positive Moriarity (Kelly's Heroes), we may just be a good team, afterall. ok - looking for your inner circle picks. I just took A&M -8 gobble gobble Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooby's Hubby Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 ok - looking for your inner circle picks. I just took A&M -8 gobble gobble you know, ... Scooby is an Aggie ... I am definately going with A&M -1/2 1ST Q ... small play 100 Ftbl Texas A & M Aggies1stQtr -½ @-1.20 straight play XX I think we should discuss the Pro Game... Tease any 2 of the following 3 ...Dallas (-1) or Cincy (-1) or NYJ (-3) 2 game teaser pays 1:1. Taking 'Boys 1st Q, as well, small ... 56 Ftbl Dallas Cowboys*1stQtr -½ @-1.20 straight play X0.00 for X0.00 46 Ftbl Dallas Cowboys* -1 1300 Ftbl Cincinnatti Bengals* -1 Minor Teaser XX0.00 for X00.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 A&M has not treated me well this season. Wouldn't touch 'em with a 10 foot pole right now. I love the Lions plus whatever points you can get for the first game. I wish this game wasn't first, because I feel strongly enough about the play to put a bundle on it if I had a nice stake built up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 A&M has not treated me well this season. Wouldn't touch 'em with a 10 foot pole right now. I love the Lions plus whatever points you can get for the first game. I wish this game wasn't first, because I feel strongly enough about the play to put a bundle on it if I had a nice stake built up. More about playing against texas, had nice success there. We shall see but I think a&m goes out in a big way. Det huh? They can't start slow like last week or they fed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooby's Hubby Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 (edited) scared of det/packer game for either side. A&M at home should come out guns a blazing. it's later in the game that they falter. I like the 1st Q bet. Line moved to 8.5. I am scared of the 8 (although A&M so good at home) but not the -1/2 for the 1st Q. Edited November 24, 2011 by Scooby's Hubby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 More about playing against texas, had nice success there. We shall see but I think a&m goes out in a big way. Det huh? They can't start slow like last week or they fed. Apparently I'm not in the minority, the line on Detroit is dropping like a stone, down to +4 now in some places. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Apparently I'm not in the minority, the line on Detroit is dropping like a stone, down to +4 now in some places. I will take the minority play and go against the grain, and the dog consensus here, just toook: GB -4 Dal -7 - I like Dallas in a big way here......... SF/Balt O 40 GL all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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