LooGie Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 (edited) So I recently wrote a spreadsheet to keep track of my picks ATS, as well as a site that I frequent and their picks. Just to see whose better. Other than my Thursday and Monday picks, I have not been keeping track. Moving forward with my new spreadsheet, I will keep track. The only Sunday record I have kept is Week 11, I went 10-3-1 picking over/unders. The benefit of this new spreadsheet is that I can provide a documented history for the huddlers, and feel like I contribute. I have nothing in my life. Nothing. I'm suicidal. My heart pumps not blood, but black, oozing, concentrated pain. ON TO THE PICKS! Bottom team is home. Bold team is ATS winner. OAK 23 MIA (-3) 19 Carson got the rust off, and MIA is terrible at home. Call it a hunch, but a 7-4 team underdog to a 3-8 team because they're "HOT" is not the way I see it. I like the under (43) ATL (-2.5) 20 HOU 13 ATL, on the verge of making the playoffs, and HOU, on the verge of homicide over their QB situation. You can almost always count on ATL melting down in the final weeks of a season, but I think they pull it out. At least for another week. I like the under (37.5) DET 24 NO (-9) 31 Another chance to watch Brees level up. The Saints are averaging 37.5 points at home, WITHOUT counting the 62 point drubbing of the Colts. DET is crumbling like my hopes, dreams, social life, and spare change when i said "I do". However teams historically find it hard to put up huge numbers 2 weeks in a row, and the spreads (and the public) typically inflate after a high scorer, like the Saints put up on the Giants. I like a big win, but I like DET to cover. I like the over (53.5) but only by a point and a half. I'd stay away from the ovr/und.= anyway. BAL (-6.5) 21 CLE 16 Cle plays hard, and they play even harder in their division. Many of you know I love this as a straight money-line bet. I ALLLMOST took them, but the fact that BAL is 6-1 against teams with a winning record makes me think twice. I know that the Raven play bad teams on the road, like a bad team...on the road. They lost on the road to SEA and JAX. The JAX game had a ton of turnovers though, and SEA is damn tough to play, especially across the country. Within the division, I can count on CLE to keep it close. I like the under (38) IND 13 NE (-20.5) 41 Yup, I'm going for it. there's only been 4 games since 2000 with a point spread of more than 20 points, and all 4 were the Patriots, and the Patriots failed to cover all 4 of them. In an NFL game, you can't pass up 20 free points, but when Belichik has a chance to feed on the Colts, he's going to do it, and do it big. I like the over (47.5) NYJ (-3) 24 WAS 17 Both of these teams are sort of an enigma, but even with Sanchez's somewhat crappy showings, the Jets average 23 points a game, and the Redskins only 16. The meat of this is that Rex Ryan is capable of bringing the Jets to a point where they understand, the playoff hopes are alive... I like the over (38.5) KC 10 CHI (-7.5) 20 I had KC pulling an upset, but then i came to my sense. Chicago's defense, against...well i think you know where I'm going with this. Not to mention, the Bears were averaging 26 points a game, and KC only 14..I understand things are different now, but I think the Bears D steps up. I actually think 3 FGs is more likely than 10 points from KC... I like the under (37.5) TEN 21 BUF (-1) 23 TEN and BUF...does anyone really care? Both are capable of disgusting, atrocious, laughable games, and both are capable of wowing us right back into "care mode". TEN is too inconsistent and I can't see BUF losing 5 in a row. Bet on this one at your own risk folks. Interestingly, I like the over (43) CIN 21 PIT (-7) 27 I love these divisional games. CIN has proven quite capable of beating PIT on the road. I don't believe CIN is the team we all thought they were a few weeks ago, but any underdog in a divisional game within the AFC North gets an extra few points. The money-line bet, while not as pretty as CLE over BAL is not a bad choice here, but take a touchdown, and not much less than that, just to be safe. I like the over (42.5) CAR 27 TB (-3.5) 23 Disclaimer: I'm a Panther fan. Disclaimer #2: Screw the Panthers. Carolina has proven time and again they take their divisional games very seriously. For years they even played better on the road against their divisional nemesii...a plural word for nemesis i just made up. When Loogie starts busting out new words, you hop on this train, and you ride. But if you want some stats, Carolina average 22 points a game, and TB 18. Carolina is 5th in total yards, but just lacks the ability to score every time they rack up 100 yards. Even still, they are ranked 22 in scoring efficiency, while TB is 26. (Only ahead of WAS, CLE, JAX, IND, KC AND STL.) I like the over (47) DEN 21 MIN (-1) 20 Disclaimer: Tebow is no big deal, in my mind. the 1-4 Ortonian Broncos (uh oh. NEW WORD!) faced teams with a combined record of 35-20, while the Tebowskian 5-1 Broncs (throwing out the game where they shared snaps) faced teams with a combined 24-31. Under Orton they averaged 20 points; under Tebow 19. Obviously the defense is playing better, probably due to Tebow's ungodly ability to make them play harder. Regardless of that, the Broncos are a better team. They're 3-4 against teams with a winning record, while MIN is a terribad 0-6. I like DEN in the UPSET OF THE WEEK! Err, in a game where MIN will continue to suck, and only gets a nod from the spread because they're at home. Bet on this at your own risk, folks. I like the over (37.5) DAL (-4.5) 28 ARI 17 The only thing..err 3 things keeping me betting the farm on this one are the following: 1. Arizona has been known to pull many an upset at home. 2. Arizona's defense is good enough to get under the cuticle of Romo; December Version. 3. Romo in December.... Dallas in December...just the thought of the typical December Dallas Cowboys gets me ready to smile knowingly at every Cowboys fan I know..including my father in law, who already hates me, so I really got nothing to lose on that front. I'm off on a tangent... Lets start over. Arizona is bad. Like...bad, but they do play better at home. Always have. But they're averaging just 19 points a game, while averaging giving up 23 ppg. Dallas averages 24.5 ppg, but only gives up 20. I just dont see ARI overcoming the averages, home or not. Dallas with a long week to prepare, and Arizona with no QB to speak of. In fact, with a spread of only -4.5, I'm betting the farm on this one. I got under (45.5) but only by half a point. I'd keep the ovr/und off anything that doesn't say "ties win" on this one, because it's going either way. GB (-6.5) 28 NYG 21 Here's what it comes down to: anything over +7 points, and I'd be taking NYG to cover. There's something about a team that's on the verge of winning them all, and that thing is usually this: Some of those games, they do it just barely. Eli is playing like Peyton, and GB's defense is more than happy to let QBs level up. The travel to New York is not easy on alot of teams, and I remember this one game where NYG beat an undefeated team. it wasn't anything special or anything. In fact, I think I turned the game off at half time. This game is not going anywhere near ANY of my tickets this week. I'm making a pick here, because I aint skurred..but I aint making a bet, because I'm skurrrrred. I got the under (52) and i wouldn't touch that either. STL 17 SF (-13) 31 Oh man, if any game this week should have a 20 point spread, it's the "Mommy, how many beers do we have to let Daddy drink before he'll be fun and take us to the park, but not enough so he won't stop off at the pet store and punch that parrot that called him "stupid" before washing his hear with butter?" After that game, it's this game. Anyone that remembers me, know I never count on a drubbing between divisional foes, and I can't think of anyone that thought SF would be the source of such a game anyway. but you can bet that any bets that I bet this week, will have SF -13 all over them. The Rams, averaging a whopping 12.7 points a game only get 17 points in my predictions, because it's a divisional game. The 9ers, ranking 3rd in scoring efficiency, and ranking 1st (!) in causing opponents to inefficient in scoring should equal a cataclysmic drubbing. The 9ers won 8 straight before dropping one to the Ravens, which means in order to lose to the Rams, they've had to lose 2 in a row. In fact, if the Rams are capable of keeping this within 13 points, that in itself would be an upset. The Rams average giving up 25 ppg, and I think the 49ers are capable of claiming their 25 points, and another TD or so, just because they can. I got the over (37.5) but that's only because I'm giving the Rams 17 points. In fact, I think 30-7 is much more likely. I'd stay away from the ovr/und, especially in a divisional game like this. Records: Monday Night Football record ATS: 11-2. I know that sounds great, but the games this year have been pretty easy. The only upset was BAL losing to mighty JAX, which of course I lose that bet. My other loss was week 8 took SD -3.5 to cover vs KC. KC won SU. Thursday Night (and Thanksgiving) record ATS: 3-3. Really I shouldn't count the Thanksgiving day games, because it suits my purpose not to. I lost all 3 on Thanksgiving. Final Result: A Loogie losing week. Awful. ATS: 5-10 SU 10-5 OVR/UN: 9-6 I managed to pick the scores within 3 points (or dead on, like for KC and NO for a slew of teams though. KC, NO, BAL, WAS, TEN, ARI. I just didn't pick their opponents scores very good. All in all, my worst week of the year. Edited December 5, 2011 by LooGie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooby's Hubby Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 (edited) The only pick of yours that I would warn you about is your first pick. I am leaning Miami because of their excellent run defense (only allowed 2 rushing TDs all year). I do not see Bush getting much, here. The Oakland pass defense is poor and Matt Moore is figuring out who to throw to in Miami. Miami's pass defense is also improving. They handled Demarco Murray and Romo and should have won that game. Every team (except one, Buffalo) that has lost to Dallas has won the next week. I am taking Miami with confidence. Edited December 3, 2011 by Scooby's Hubby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooby's Hubby Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 This is my free money super parlay of the week. Bet nothing, win big! 530 Ftbl Chicago Bears* -7 552 Ftbl Miami Dolphins* -3 @-1.05 595 Ftbl Baltimore Ravens* -6½ 639 Ftbl Atlanta Falcons* -2½ 661 Ftbl Carolina Panthers* +3 @-1.05 parley 30.00 for 765.66 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LooGie Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 This is my free money super parlay of the week. Bet nothing, win big! 530 Ftbl Chicago Bears* -7 552 Ftbl Miami Dolphins* -3 @-1.05 595 Ftbl Baltimore Ravens* -6½ 639 Ftbl Atlanta Falcons* -2½ 661 Ftbl Carolina Panthers* +3 @-1.05 parley 30.00 for 765.66 Other than MIA, I like that bet. Alot. The more I think about it, the less I like the OAK/MIA game. I still think it's OAK who takes it though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazysight Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I love your thinking Loogie, I made a longshot bet earlier today that involved 4 of the picks that you've made in this thread (coincidentally, mind you, I hadn't read this thread beforehand. That is unless you want to say that great minds think alike). Still it's obviously a longshot for me to hit on all 4 and I realize that, but it should definitely add a bigtime element of intrigue to Sundays games for me this week! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooby's Hubby Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 My other cheapy ... 584 Ftbl Pittsburgh Steelers*1stQtr -½ @-1.20 605 Ftbl Baltimore Ravens*1stQtr -½ @-1.20 649 Ftbl Atlanta Falcons*1stQtr pick @-1.20 694 Ftbl New Orleans Saints*1stQtr -½ @-1.40 parley 30.00 for 286.90* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooby's Hubby Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Also have Carolina in 1st Q (pk), 1st H (-1/2) and game (-3) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LooGie Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 3 tickets: 9 team MEGA teaser: (Ties Win) TEN +10 CHI PK OAK +10 CLE +15 NO -1 DEN +8 SF -5 DAL +3 NE -12 $5 to win $30 4 TEAM PARLAY OAK (MONEYLINE) SF -14 DEN -1.5 GB -6.5 $5 TO WIN $82 5 TEAM PARLAY BUF -2 CHI -7 OAK ML ATL -2.5 CAR +2 $10 TO WIN $290 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LooGie Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Also have Carolina in 1st Q (pk), 1st H (-1/2) and game (-3) CAR -3? Is that a prop bet, or did you mean +3? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LooGie Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 All in all, a terrible week for me. ATS: 5-10 SU 10-5 OVR/UN: 9-6 Things I learned this week: I was surprised at Houston's showing, as well as Cincy. But for different reasons. HOU showed up, Cincy checked out. December Dallas...you really have to consider Dallas's December record when making bets. Divisional games never be underestimated. Divisional teams know each other so well, that even when a team is the underdog, there's a real chance for a blowout, in either direction. I usually expect a close game regardless of who's favored, but CAR, PIT and SF all proved a blowout is entirely possible. Even Baltimore's 2 TD win over CLE doesn't really show that there never really seemed like CLE had a chance. I said this before, i posted it here, I posted it on another forum. I said "In an NFL game, if you're getting 20 points, You take them. Everytime. Yet i didn't. So I learned to do as i say, not as I do... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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