Loogie's Week 14 Sunday ATS projeductictians

[LooGie]

Bold team is ATS winner. Bottom is home team.

 

NO (-4) 26

TEN 23

Don’t expect a runaway here. NO loves to keep it close on the road, and even throws a win to really bad teams now and again. Also, TEN is not a really bad team. They’re actually almost good.

I’m calling an upset…at least by way of the spread.

 

RESULT: Loogie Loss: NO 22, TEN 17. ATS 0-1, SU 1-0

 

OAK 21

GB (-11) 31

GB averages 35 points at home, but more importantly has defeated opponents by 11 points or more 5 times this season. They’ve covered double digit spreads 3 times, and lost 3 times. They’ve only lost 4 times this year ATS, and only one of those was at home, where they beat TB by 9 points. That spread was 14.

I’m not really sure what any of this means. Some of it points to GB not covering 11 points. Some of it points to them covering. Really, it comes down, in my mind, Carson is capable of exploiting some of GBs faults at defense, and OAK is no slouch. I don’t think GB will put up 35 points at home this week, so the question is, can OAK put up 23 or so points. Well, they average close to that…

This is a tough one. Take the points.

 

RESULT: Loogie Loss: OAK 16, GB 46. ATS 0-2, SU 2-0

 

IND 10

BAL (-16) 30

Bal loves to play chitty against chitty teams. But that’s usually on the road. Flacco is below-average and lives below the “meh” line. No way BAL doesn’t score 28 points in this one, and if Indy is capable of scoring 12 points against Bal, I’d eat my hat. By the way, Baltimore averages 29.77 points at home, and that includes their worst showing of 16 points against SF. The Ravens average giving up almost 16 points at home, to teams that average over 20 points a game..not 14 ppg, like the Colts.

 

RESULT: Loogie Loss: BAL 24, IND 10. ATS 0-3, SU 3-0

 

ATL (-3) 24

CAR 26

Probably best to just call this a homer pick, but I swear I'm basing it on ATL usually sucking at years end, and Carolina averaging hefty points in just about every game.

 

RESULT: Loogie Loss: ATL 31, CAR 23. ATS 0-4, SU 3-1

 

HOU 14

CIN (-3) 12

Look for Dalton to have a rough day against the best defense in the NFL. Cincy is equipped to deal with the now “run first” Texans and give Yates a tough day, but I really don’t see how Cincy can pull this one out.

 

RESULT: Loogie Win: HOU 20, CIN 19. ATS 1-4, SU 4-1

 

KC 14

NYJ (-9) 24

Little nugget: KC has been outscored by AFC East teams this year by a brain melting 106-13. In just 3 games.!The best part of KC this year is it’s above mediocre defense. Jets are home, and like always it really comes down to play at the QB position. Sanchez can make you punch yourself in the face, but the Jets are 5th in points scored this season with 24. The Chiefs? Lets just say I didn’t feel like figuring out what rank they are, but they average 13.5 ppg.

Lets just play the averages, and forget that the Jets need this win, and KC couldn’t give a fat rats ass.

 

RESULT: Loogie Win: NYJ 37, KC 10. ATS 2-4, SU 5-1

 

MIN 17

DET (-7) 23

Bottom line is a divisional game, against the Vikings. The Vikes defense is the gift that keeps on giving. They give points to any team with any quarterback.

In the Lions past 5 games, they’ve had only 2 games with over 20 points. Those 2 were 45 (Den) & 49 (Car) against teams with terribad defenses.

Divion rivals, and both teams are too inconsistent against divisional teams this year for me to put any money on this one, but for some reason, I’m leaning towards Min, and considered calling for an upset.

 

RESULT: Loogie Win: DET 34, MIN 28. ATS 3-4, SU 6-1

 

NE (-7.5) 34

WAS 20

Even I could rack up yards and points against NE pass defense, but the short and sweet is NE has scored more than 30 points for 4 straight weeks. WAS isn’t slowing that down, and while Rex will probably have the best day of his season, it wont come close to New England’s “auto win” setting.

 

RESULT: Loogie Loss: NE 34, WAS 27. ATS 3-5, SU 7-1

 

 

SF (-3.5) 20

ARI 13

I’m surprised the spread is only -3.5 for SF. Those powers that be must know something we don’t. Divisional games, as I’m always ranting about tend to throw a monkey wrench or 2, and SF’s offensive line flat out sucks. Arizona plays hard at home, according to Dallas, but only 3.5 points means you take SF confidently. I was hoping to pull an upset special here, but I need at least +7 to do that.

 

RESULT: Loogie Loss: ARI 21, SF 19. ATS 3-6, SU 7-2

 

BUF 20

SD (-6.5) 26

The public still thinks SD is a good team, and (rightfully so) sees Buffalo as a bad team. It’s December though, and Rivers does his thing in December. Can he do it for a win of more than 7 points…I don’t know, but can you count on Buffalo for anything? I think you can in this one.

 

RESULT: Loogie Loss: SD 37, BUF 10 ATS 3-7, SU 8-2

 

TB (-3) 10

JAX 12

Right…where do I start. Eh screw it. You’re not going to read it anyway. They both suck like Tijuana crack whores.

I could see a game with 5 total points though. That would be cool. No…no it wouldn’t.

 

RESULT: Loogie Win: JAX 41, TB 14 ATS 4-7, SU 9-2

 

PHI 20

MIA (-3) 26

Short and sweet, MIA is hot as hell, and PHI has checked out for the year.

 

RESULT: Loogie Loss: PHI 26, MIA 10 ATS 4-8, SU 9-3

 

CHI 16

DEN (-3) 20

Tebow shut everyone up last week. Good for him. Bad for Chicago. I’m losing interest in these games as I go. Can you tell?

 

RESULT: Loogie PUSH*: DEN 13, CHI 10 ATS 4-8-1, SU 10-3

 

NYG 30

DAL (-3.5) 27

Stats very slightly point to DAL, but one little thing, Romo in December. I’ll take Eli.

 

RESULT: Loogie Win: NYG 37, DAL 34 ATS 5-8-1, SU 11-3

 

 

Results: Another bad week for Loogie. All in all it was a tough week to predict ATS winners.

SU RECORD FOR WEEK 14 (Not counting Thurs or MNF): 11-3

ATS RECORD FOR WEEK 14 (Not counting Thurs or MNF): 5-8-1*

*Disclaimer: When I made my picks, TB & JAX had no line. By the end of Friday the line was TB -3. I adjusted the spread, but kept my pick the same. The spread wouldn't have changed my record, as I had JAX (the underdog) regardless of the spread. But on the same note, the CHI/DEN spread was DEN -3.5. That spread moved to -3. That would give me a push, even though I picked DEN to win by 4. So take that how you want it. I just want to give you all the facts. No matter what, i sucked it up.

Edited December 12, 2011 by LooGie

[Tally]

I'm with you on the HOU and NYG plays... think these are both good ML picks, can easily see a situation where both of these teams win out right. I'm going to parlay them up and hopefully get paid... Good luck today!

[Tally]

Also, thought long and hard about Philly w/ Vick coming back and trying to save A. Reids job but in the end I'm just way to impressed with MIA defense to go against them ( man do I miss being able to play MIA as a dog, had a real nice run there right after M Moore took over ) but at this point the books have caught up with whats going on in MIA and the value is now all gone.

 

Also, gave CHI some real consideration but no Cutler and no Forte is just too much to put my money behind even though I HATE Den as a favorite. Dog yes, Fav no... not for me.

[Do Work Son]

I'm kind of thinking SF loses today. Division game in Arizona after clinching the West last week. You have to think there already looking ahead to the Monday night game against the Steelers. Niners come out flat and lose.

 

49ers: 16

Cardinals: 20

[TheAdonis2010]

Your plays are right in line with my 3 team 10 point teaser

 

Oak +21 (i think packers will put up around 40 but oakland should put up at least 20)

 

Ind +26.5 (almost getting a 4 td cushion, ravens have played bad against teams like this)

 

NyJ - .5 (jets have burned me a few times this season, but i think they will lie ,cheat, and steal to make sure they win this game)

Edited December 11, 2011 by TheAdonis2010

[Scooby's Hubby]

I have too many to list, but I did tease the Jets and the Packers together. I think the Jets can win by ten at home.

[Scooby's Hubby]

I also like the AZ Cardinals to upset, so I have them in a teaser with the denver under.

[Scooby's Hubby]

GB 1st Half -7

[wildcat2334]

GB 1st Half -7

 

 

nice call-

 

decent day here - looking to cap it off with NYG + 4.5 Under 50

 

what yall got?

[Scooby's Hubby]

I have too many to list, but I did tease the Jets and the Packers together. I think the Jets can win by ten at home.

 

 

I also like the AZ Cardinals to upset, so I have them in a teaser with the denver under.

 

 

GB 1st Half -7

Excellent day at the office. Had the Jets, GB, SD, AZ and Philly all over the place.

[Scooby's Hubby]

Scared of the Dallas game, but probably b/c I am a Dallas homer

[Tally]

I'm with you on the HOU and NYG plays... think these are both good ML picks, can easily see a situation where both of these teams win out right. I'm going to parlay them up and hopefully get paid... Good luck today!

 

That was freakin intense! They showed the Hou/Cin game on local TV here in Vegas and I haven't scremed at my TV that much in years! Both games went down to the very last play.. made my wife hate me and love me all at the same time...what a rush.

[LooGie]

I'm with you on the HOU and NYG plays... think these are both good ML picks, can easily see a situation where both of these teams win out right. I'm going to parlay them up and hopefully get paid... Good luck today!

 

Good call!

 

Also, thought long and hard about Philly w/ Vick coming back and trying to save A. Reids job but in the end I'm just way to impressed with MIA defense to go against them ( man do I miss being able to play MIA as a dog, had a real nice run there right after M Moore took over ) but at this point the books have caught up with whats going on in MIA and the value is now all gone.

 

Also, gave CHI some real consideration but no Cutler and no Forte is just too much to put my money behind even though I HATE Den as a favorite. Dog yes, Fav no... not for me.

that game was incredible. I hate how this Tebow phenom is turning it into a question of "god" and all that. it actually makes me sick to my stomache that such a topic could even be breached. it's so stupid. Good call across the board on your part though. Going forward, when I make my picks on friday, maybe you could chime in early so I can put in a parlay based on your picks. I think I could make some money riding your coattails mixed with my own!

 

I'm kind of thinking SF loses today. Division game in Arizona after clinching the West last week. You have to think there already looking ahead to the Monday night game against the Steelers. Niners come out flat and lose.

 

49ers: 16

Cardinals: 20

what a call. I'm usually pretty good at predicting trap games, and such, but you flat out nailed it. i wouldn't say SF came out flat, it was just a tough game, as most divisional games are. That "challenged" FG fake didn't help anything, as ARI would've lost the challenge and at least a timeout, but since the reply equipment was broke, they didn't evne lose the timeout, the FG was missed, and then ARI opened up with a long TD. Pretty sucky day for any SF fans.

 

Excellent day at the office. Had the Jets, GB, SD, AZ and Philly all over the place.

Good job man. I'm really impressed with that PHI call. If I spent a little bit more time on the SF, ARI game I could've called that one, but PHI? not in a thousand years. I figured with Vick back he was going to do that pout thing he does, where he passively gets hurt..again or whatever. Great call on your part.

 

That was freakin intense! They showed the Hou/Cin game on local TV here in Vegas and I haven't scremed at my TV that much in years! Both games went down to the very last play.. made my wife hate me and love me all at the same time...what a rush.

Great game. I fell asleep and missed the last 10 minutes..and my 8 year old is a Cincy fan, so he was mad at me. He kicked me to wake me up when they lost