LooGie Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 So I have a premium membership at a site. They have a truly remarkable record at picking winners. Of course every week that i bet with them, they lose their a$$. I've gone through and kept records of their picks, and i can tell you, they don't change their picks, they keep everything as honest as one could hope for. Until this week. By my records, they suffered their worst week ever with a pitiful 3-10-1. By their records they had an equally pitiful 4-9-1. Here's what happened. When they made their picks, TB/JAX had no line. They picked TB to win by 2 points. Well later in the week, the spread moved to TB -3. They are known to constantly be updating and re-evaluating their analysis of every game, and on Sunday morning, before the game, they adjusted their analysis, to just show the line now at TB -3. They did not move their picks. By choosing JAX to lose by 2 points with no spread, did they iin essence pick JAX to cover -3? the score ended up a drubbing JAX 41, TB 14. In other words, if the spread stayed -0, or even -1, They would've lost. but because the spread moved to -3, and they picked JAX to lose by 2, did they predict them to cover, or did they pad their stats with a loophole? I'll give more examples in the following reply. I dont want to make this an overly long first post, as I really want some good opinions on this. I'm torn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LooGie Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 Here's some reasons why I think it's ok. 1. If I decide to bet with them, and I base my picks off just their margin of victory, the spread wouldn't matter. In other words, I see that JAX will lose by 2, according to them. i walk into the Casino, see that the line is JAX +3, and I see that based on their picks, JAX will cover, and i go for it. 2. That's probably the correct way to bet, instead of going "oh, they pick TB to win", I go "oh, TB by 2. As the line moves, it doesn't change that TB was picked to win by 2. I just adjust by bet based on the moving line. Here's some reasons why I have issues with this: 1. What if the line moved in the opposite direction? What if it was JAX -3. Their pick of TB by 2 would be a loser. of course if the line didn't move at all and stayed -0, that pick is still a loser, since JAX won by 27 points. 2. what if the line moved to JAX -27. (i know it wouldn't, but hear me out) If the line moved to JAX -27, i would've pushed. My pushing means their pick goes from a loser, to a push. That's padding their stats isn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LooGie Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 (edited) heres another example, I picked DEN to win by 4. At the time, the spread was -3.5. Before the game started, I saw that the line had moved to DEN -3. I made my weekly picks, showing that I choose DEN by 4. they won by 3. that means that was a loss. I'm now 0-1 at picking ATS winners. but since the line moved to -3, and I'm ok with adjusting my analysis after the fact, and resubmitting the new spread, since they won by 3, that would mean I pushed. that means my record isn't 0-1, it's now 0-0-1. In other words, if I can adjust JUST the spread after the fact, then i could do it to show all spreads that pushed, and move the losses to pushes, without changing one thing in my analysis, except the spread. I think that's cheating. Edited December 12, 2011 by LooGie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LooGie Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 Nobody got nothin? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I often see people that prognosticate numbers like that, always seem to get the best number. The Denver number did move to 3 but it was close to game-time. Unless the provider said this is only a play at -3 then it should be counted as a loss. 4-9-1 against the spread this week? Really? They are charging $$ for that? I went 10-6. You can look it up on the staff pool picks and all it costs you is the price of a Huddle membership. And I am among the worst of the staff this year for picking all games ATS. DMD is absolutely slaughtering the spread this year. If you want to tail someone, or just use someone as a barometer of your own picks, you have one of the hottest pickers on the planet at your disposal already. Sheesh! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LooGie Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 (edited) I often see people that prognosticate numbers like that, always seem to get the best number. The Denver number did move to 3 but it was close to game-time. Unless the provider said this is only a play at -3 then it should be counted as a loss. 4-9-1 against the spread this week? Really? They are charging $$ for that? I went 10-6. You can look it up on the staff pool picks and all it costs you is the price of a Huddle membership. And I am among the worst of the staff this year for picking all games ATS. DMD is absolutely slaughtering the spread this year. If you want to tail someone, or just use someone as a barometer of your own picks, you have one of the hottest pickers on the planet at your disposal already. Sheesh! No i know, and next year, I'll be here before there. Its just that once I went away from FF, i just figured my time here was done. Not sure what I was thinking. this is still the best football community around. edit: and i dont have a membership anymore. Edited December 12, 2011 by LooGie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LooGie Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 I often see people that prognosticate numbers like that, always seem to get the best number. The Denver number did move to 3 but it was close to game-time. Unless the provider said this is only a play at -3 then it should be counted as a loss. 4-9-1 against the spread this week? Really? They are charging $$ for that? I went 10-6. You can look it up on the staff pool picks and all it costs you is the price of a Huddle membership. And I am among the worst of the staff this year for picking all games ATS. DMD is absolutely slaughtering the spread this year. If you want to tail someone, or just use someone as a barometer of your own picks, you have one of the hottest pickers on the planet at your disposal already. Sheesh! also, what do you think about the TB JAX move? loss? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 It's been my experience that these kinds of premium tout sites are so often consistently documentably wrong and yet continue to exist is that they are run by wise guys trying to get a lot of action opposite of the way they bet the lines themselves. That way not only do they keep the line where they want it despite their heavier action, but they get to scale the fish they hooked for $$$ while getting those same fish to book action against their bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 (edited) First off, you pay for touts. Your opinion on their win/loss thing is pointless (ha! get it?) regardless of what their picks are because you paid for all their wrong advice. Secondly, if they gave themselves a 4th win on a 15 card day, because they sided on a -2 vs. a -3 spread, well.....shoot man, I'd be a lot more concerned if they flat out lied about it, and gave themselves six or seven wins. Wouldn't you? I'd also be a lot more worried that I paid dough for someone who lost more than 2x the number that they won. F'n coinflips have better percentages than that. Edited December 12, 2011 by godtomsatan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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