Week 15 Leans (ML Underdogs only)

[Tally]

OK, trying to get on here a little earlier this week. Here are some of my ML dog leans this week. Of course there is no way I will play them all. I’ll eventually narrow it down to 2 (3 max) and then parlay them up. I won’t throw any trends at you because personally I put little to no consideration into trends unless they are very recent… I like to gamble based on human emotion and current situation. I’m listing the spreads but any play I make will always be an underdog money line play.

 

CAR +6

 

Houston did not impress me at all last week. I watched every play of that game and IMO it felt to me like they were kinda luckily to walk away with the win. Houston has now won 7 games in a row (way over due of a loss) and the last 3 they have only scored 20pts, 20pts and 17pts. 57 total points in last 3 games doesn’t seem like enough to me, not for a team with the best running game in football. Although they are still winning I think they miss M. Schuab more than their recent wins may lead you to believe. Another thought is that last week Carolina let a decent/late lead slip away to ATL so I would like to think the coaching staff will ride them hard on the importance of lead preservation (if they can get one this week)

 

The most important factor is this lean is the fact that HOU just wrapped up their division and their first ever playoff appearance. I think this is a let down spot after last weeks emotional/playoff clinching win. Finally, I like that it’s a 6 point spread which will help make for a sweet payout on a ML ticket.

 

 

JETS+3

 

NYJ need this win and they need it bad. They have been playing pretty good ball lately (on a 3 game winning streak) and S.Green has been running the ball really well also. (I'm a big fan of gambling on teams when their running game is clicking) I know those 3 Jet wins have all come against weak opponents but still Philly has only won 2 games in a row once this year. They are as schizophrenic as it gets, they are also 1-5 at home. Although NY hasn’t been a good road team this year, it’s an easy/short trip for NY to go to Philly so I just don’t see the home field advantage coming into play much here. It’s tough to use the term fade after a team has only won one game in a row but I think this is a decent spot to fade Philly. Also, if Philly didn’t win last week, would they even be favored at all this week? I seriously doubt it.

 

 

SD+2

 

Somewhat the same though process here as I have with the NYJ… SD is not out of the playoffs yet. OAK is falling hard and fast and God will only save Tebow and the donkeys so many times, even God has his limits. If SD can run the table they can still get in. We all know how good SD plays in December. I know I said I’m not the trend guy but maybe P. Rivers just takes time (allot of time) to get warmed up. I also like the way R. Matthews played last week….We have a very hungry, hungry hippo here. At home SD can sneak away with this win.

 

PIT +2

 

Of course I will need to wait and see what’s going on with Roethlisberger first but he's a tough SOB and if anyone can play through an ankle injury, it's him. It’s few and far between when you get a chance to play PIT as a dog. There a great team; they simply know how to win. It almost feels like winning is all they ever do and whenever I get the rare opportunity to play them as a dog my spider senses start tingling all over. Note: the spread listed is a VI consensus spread and probably will change as the news on Ben develops over the week… I will be watching it very closely.

 

 

SEA+3.5

 

This could be a trap. Obviously, you gotta like the way SEA has played over the last 5 weeks (they are 4-1) Defense is playing really good ball and M. Lynch is leading or near the lead in rushing for the last month. Lynch has also scored a TD in 9 straight games. CHI is beat up bad and it would be great to be able to pick on the Bears in this spot but there are a few big problems with this game… we have a west coast team traveling cross country on short rest AND playing an early game… that sucks!! I wish SEA had played on Sunday instead of last night and that will most probably be enough to scare me away from this one.

 

I'll post again later in the week after I make my final choices.

Edited December 13, 2011 by Tally

[Tally]

I eliminated the Hawks from my leans based on the short week traveling cross country and playing an early game… a recipe for disaster. I really do like Sea this week and I want to pick on the beat up Bears but it’s just too much for me to get past. I will pay close attention to this game for future reference when situations like this one present themselves again.

 

I also eliminated Pitt only because it’s a Mon night game and I don’t want to risk Ben not playing. If he does play I will most probably put a ML wager on Pitt tomorrow night.

 

My play is NYJ, SD and CAR ML… $30 to win $445

 

I almost never back favorites but I LOVE NE -4.5 (1st half) so I put another 30 clams on the Pat’s as my “break even” wager since a 3 team underdog ML parlay is so hard to hit.

 

Also, If I hit the first two games of my parlay, SD/BAL is the Sun night game so I may hedge Bal and guarantee I win something… I’ll have to see how I feel if that's even an option for me.

 

Good luck to all my fellow degenerates this week!

[Tally]

So 4 out of 5 with my leans/plays so far including 3 out 4 ML underdogs. Unfortunately, the Jets were on my parlay ticket instead of the Hawks costing me the big win but the Pat's kept me even (minus the vig).

 

Anyway, I'm more confident than ever backing Pitt ML tonight. Big Ben is playing and with the Ravens losing yesterday, I fully expect Pitt to smell the blood and go for the kill shot. As stated in the original post, it's few and far between when you get an opportunity to play the Steelers as a dog... I'm all over it tonight!

 

Got no love with this thread, pretty lame. What happened to all the gamblers around here this week?

Edited December 19, 2011 by Tally

[Scooby's Hubby]

So 4 out of 5 with my leans/plays so far including 3 out 4 ML underdogs. Unfortunately, the Jets were on my parlay ticket instead of the Hawks costing me the big win but the Pat's kept me even (minus the vig).

 

Anyway, I'm more confident than ever backing Pitt ML tonight. Big Ben is playing and with the Ravens losing yesterday, I fully expect Pitt to smell the blood and go for the kill shot. As stated in the original post, it's few and far between when you get an opportunity to play the Steelers as a dog... I'm all over it tonight!

 

Got no love with this thread, pretty lame. What happened to all the gamblers around here this week?

 

Good job this week. Sorry, Christmas parties and hangovers, one of each for me.

[rattsass]

Nice work Tally. With you on the Steelers tonigh, but I went with the ML bet. Got it this morning at +135. My single biggest play of the year on this one.

[wildcat2334]

SF -3 and over 37 here. O/U has been dropping.......... wouldn't be surprised if Ben can't go, he looks severly limited. He could be good for a fumble, INT or 3 for the SF D.

 

Either way - I like SF at home

Edited December 20, 2011 by wildcat2334