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The Luck Sweepstakes?


Big Dogs
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Question here for the Huddler NFL rules experts..... I'm sure this topic has been discussed, but couldn't find it via a search......

 

Currently, the Colts are in-line for the "Luck Sweepstakes". I'll keep my personal opinion as to what we should to to myself. However, the Vikings and Rams are both at 2-12..... How is it determined who gets the first pick if two or more of the teams end up in a tie for the worst record??? :wacko:

 

Remaining games for each team are:

Colts:

-- a pissed of Houston team (Thursday night) - slim chance of a win here

-- Jacksonville - 50/50 - Could go either way

 

Vikings:

-- vs Redskins

-- vs Chicago

 

Rams:

-- Pittsburgh

-- San Francisco

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http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

 

TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING

 

1. Clubs not participating in the playoffs shall select in the first through 20th positions in reverse standings order.

2. The Super Bowl winner is last and Super Bowl loser is next-to-last.

3. The losers of the Conference Championship games shall select 29th and 30th based on won-lost-tied percentage.

4. The losers of the Divisional playoff games shall select 25th through 28th based on won-lost-tied percentage.

5. The losers of the Wild Card games shall select 21st through 24th based on won-lost-tied percentage.

 

If ties exist in any grouping except (2) above, such ties shall be broken by strength-of-schedule. If any ties cannot be broken by strength-of-schedule, the divisional or conference tie-breakers, if applicable, shall be applied. Any ties that still exist shall be broken by a coin flip.

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Well, think about it this way ... what would have to happen for IND to not get the #1 overall pick.

 

Well:

 

* IND could win their final two games and either STL or MIN lose both.

* IND could win one game and STL and MIN lose both ... then, we'd go to the SoS tiebreaker ... and to consider the worst case scenario for IND, then IND's final two opponents would go (collectively) 3-1 in their final two games (say, JAX goes 1-1, losing to IND, and HOU goes 2-0) ... and STL's final two opponents would beat STL but lose in their other final game (so, they'd go 2-2 cumulatively) and MINs opponents would do the same ... THUS ... IND's opponents would (in IND's worst case) have 123 wins, STL's would have 132 wins and MIN's would have 129 wins. IND still gets the #1 overall pick NO MATTER WHAT if the SoS is used as a tie-breaker.

* IND loses both games, in which case IND picks 1st overall.

 

So ... the only way that IND doesn't pick first is if they win their final two games.

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Well, think about it this way ... what would have to happen for IND to not get the #1 overall pick.

 

Well:

 

* IND could win their final two games and either STL or MIN lose both.

* IND could win one game and STL and MIN lose both ... then, we'd go to the SoS tiebreaker ... and to consider the worst case scenario for IND, then IND's final two opponents would go (collectively) 3-1 in their final two games (say, JAX goes 1-1, losing to IND, and HOU goes 2-0) ... and STL's final two opponents would beat STL but lose in their other final game (so, they'd go 2-2 cumulatively) and MINs opponents would do the same ... THUS ... IND's opponents would (in IND's worst case) have 123 wins, STL's would have 132 wins and MIN's would have 129 wins. IND still gets the #1 overall pick NO MATTER WHAT if the SoS is used as a tie-breaker.

* IND loses both games, in which case IND picks 1st overall.

 

So ... the only way that IND doesn't pick first is if they win their final two games.

 

You're missing the fact that ALL of the opponents on those lists will play 2 more games, so there's the potential for 32 more wins or losses on those totals (without accounting for who plays who within the schedule for each, for instance on the Vikings schedule GB plays CHI and DET yet, so obviously those will balance out).

 

Based on the current difference though it's hard to imagine a scenario where Indy's SOS rises above the others, but it's not totally cut and dry yet.

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Well, think about it this way ... what would have to happen for IND to not get the #1 overall pick.

 

Well:

 

* IND could win their final two games and either STL or MIN lose both.

* IND could win one game and STL and MIN lose both ... then, we'd go to the SoS tiebreaker ... and to consider the worst case scenario for IND, then IND's final two opponents would go (collectively) 3-1 in their final two games (say, JAX goes 1-1, losing to IND, and HOU goes 2-0) ... and STL's final two opponents would beat STL but lose in their other final game (so, they'd go 2-2 cumulatively) and MINs opponents would do the same ... THUS ... IND's opponents would (in IND's worst case) have 123 wins, STL's would have 132 wins and MIN's would have 129 wins. IND still gets the #1 overall pick NO MATTER WHAT if the SoS is used as a tie-breaker.

* IND loses both games, in which case IND picks 1st overall.

 

So ... the only way that IND doesn't pick first is if they win their final two games.

 

You also have to factor in what all the other teams the Colts, Rams, and Vikings have played do over the next two weeks. If I recall correctly, it's an extremely long shot for the Rams to have an easier schedule than the Colts. The Vikings have a more realistic shot thanks in large part to the Bears' recent stumbles, but it would still take some funky things to happen for Minny to have an easier sked than Indy. So the most likely scenario remains 1. Indy, 2. Minny, 3. St. Louis.

 

Shawn Zobel (who has done some draft-related stuff for The Huddle in the past) has a more detailed post about it at his site, Draft Headquarters.

 

Link

 

2V

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If the Vikings end up with the #1 pick they won't draft Luck because they spent a number 1 on Ponder, and that is an absolute travesty. I like Ponder, but there's no way on hell you don't take Luck unless Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, or Peyton Manning is on your team.

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