Do you need Elite QB to make playoffs

[giantsfan]

In other words, half the final four and half the final 2 waited on their QB for at least a few rounds (if not way more than that).

That is a fair way to look at it, but I think you then need to hope you strike that QB gold in the later rounds.

 

As with every position it is all draft relative. I do think (for the most part) you need a top QB to win. BUT the question is where can you get that top QB?

 

Next year I think 5 QB's go early/semi early in Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Cam, and Stafford.

 

Now to me those are the elite 5 and you want one of those guys, but of course if you wait, fill up at other positions and then catch lightning in a bottle later, that would be a huge edge.

 

I would say the guys who fall into that category are Vick and Rivers. They were part of the big 5 this season and I think have been replaced by Cam/Stafford for next season. If you wait an extra few rounds and can get Vick or Rivers, maybe that is the way to go. Those two guys could produce as well as the big 5 next season.

 

So it is all relative. If you can catch lightning in a bottle later in the draft with a QB that ends up being a stud (Cam and Stafford fit that mold this season), then you are in great shape.

 

But I do think, for the most part, you need a very good QB to win. And I think I will go after 1 of those big 5 in the first 3 rounds next season. Most likely I get Stafford in the late 2nd in a QB heavy league based on keepers and draft position.

Edited December 28, 2011 by giantsfan

[P3R3]

I made the Playoffs as the 2nd seed with these QBs used throughout the season Freeman, Fitzpatrick, Tebow, Palmer. I lost in the first round though, but won the 3rd place game.

 

Our leagues winners were Stafford, Brady.

[Seahawks21]

FYI That adds up to 9 QBs for 8 playoff teams

One of the guys platooned Brady/Newton, so I counted both.

[Big Country]

I made the SuperBowl in a BOTH league with Flacco and Freeman as my QBs and even after losing Forte.

 

So, while this year had unusually high QB scoring, as stethant noted, if you believe this is the new norm where you can safely identify the few QBs that will vastly ourperform the others, then by all mens go QB earlier.

 

However, using the Huddle Standard scoring and looking at the stats, we see the top 4 of Brady, Brees, Newton and Rodgers head and shoulders above the rest (with 2.5 PPG separating them), Stafford 2.5 PPG behind that group, and then another 2.5 PPG drop to Vick and Eli which starts a group of 11 QBs within slightly more than 3 PPG of each other.

 

So, if you believe this years stats to be the new norm, and you believe you can readily identify the QBs that will be in that upper echelon, then by all means I would advocate using an early pick on one of them, but once they are gone you'd probably be better served waiting out on the next tier of QBs unless you again are very confident in your ability to pick which one of those 11+ QBs will outperform the others (and I am more than willing to admit that I can't do that with a high level of confidence), which brings me back to wanting to take the shotgun approach on higher ranked RBs and WRs early on while accepting that the QB I take 3-5 rounds later is just as likely to perform at the same level as the QB I would be taking in the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

PPG differences are quite a bit closer than years past (again, using Huddle Standard with PPR for this)

 

QB 1-12 = 10.12 PPG

RB 1-24 = 11.3 PPG

WR 1-36 = 10.4 PPG

[Phat Rugby]

The big reason QB's are making a big impact this year is injuries and RBBC. There are 2-3 starting RBs that played all their team's games this year (Rice, McCoy, Lynch, I think). WR were very up and down as well. There were less "studs" that produced every week. The elite QB's were consistant almost every week. So, unless you are great at playing matchups or were simply stacked at every onther position, it would be difficult to win without one of the top 5 QB's.

[detlef]

Again, I think it bears mention that, of the QBs being talked about as having been key to a team's SB run, only Rodgers has an ADP that warranted even a mid 1st round pick. Brady was a guy that you probably needed to use an early 2nd rounder (which meant you could take a very nice RB or WR and Brees was (as he always seems to be), was someone who you could get even later still. Then come the rest of the "elite" Stafford and Newton, both of whom you could have taken after you'd addressed basically your entire starting line-up if not some back-ups to boot. Hell, I would guess that Newton didn't even get drafted in a decent amount of leagues.

 

In fact, the last time I took Brees, it was because he was sitting there at pick 30 or something and I just couldn't pass him up.

 

With that in mind, I think it's silly to be so hell-bent on avoiding QB that you pass one of these guys up if they fall enough spots later than they should be gone. But I still think it's folly to be so hell bent on grabbing an elite QB that you're taking the 4th QB off the board by the 10th pick or something. The position should be discounted to a degree considering how many decent options there are, but not so much that guys who are consistently money like Brady, Rodgers, and Brees fall past pick 15.

 

There is, after all, something to be said for putting the position to bed like you can if you get one of those three.

Edited December 28, 2011 by detlef

[delusions of grandeur]

Also, let's not forget that early QBs are not infallible either. According to MFL's ADP, Vick was #8 overall, and Rivers was #20, just 3 spots behind Brees and Brady. That means that only 60% of the top 5 QBs were really worthy of that pick. This was the same % as the top 5 RBs in ADP, due to Charles going down and Johnson underperforming, but if you add in the next 2, McCoy and Jones Drew along with Manning and Romo, then your top 7 RBs had a 71% total success rate, while your QBs go down to a 57% success rate.

 

I chose to not go any further than that to guys like Ryan, Schaub, Roeth, Freeman, and Stafford because they were typically available at the 4th and later, where you could have grabbed 3+ rounds of other positions first. Add to that you could have gotten Stafford, Manning, Newton (or even Cutler if he'd stayed healthy) at extremely good value much later, and I don't think it makes me take much more pause in waiting for a QB I like later....

 

But like BC said, it depends on how risk-averse you are at particular positions (along with the risk you create at other positions), and how well you can identify guys at a position you can get later, or whether you need to jump then... To me, it's still all about getting good value, and balancing the opportunity cost of doing so (i.e., knowing where you'll go later if you don't address that position).

[delusions of grandeur]

The big reason QB's are making a big impact this year is injuries and RBBC. There are 2-3 starting RBs that played all their team's games this year (Rice, McCoy, Lynch, I think). WR were very up and down as well. There were less "studs" that produced every week. The elite QB's were consistant almost every week. So, unless you are great at playing matchups or were simply stacked at every onther position, it would be difficult to win without one of the top 5 QB's.

It's a good point as to the question of the vlaue of an elite QB, but I think this year showed that it doesn't necessarily have to be early... Especially with the rules creating a passing-oriented league where more than one QB has the chance to break Marino's 24 year standing record, then perhaps that only shows how the position is deeper.

 

4 of the top 8 QBs came from the top 7 in ADP, but the other 4 all easily surpassed their ADP as the 8th, 12th, 13th and 24th respectively (with two of those top 3-5 in Newton and Stafford).

Edited December 28, 2011 by delusions of granduer

[Pope Flick]

My local champ had Brees but Brady and Rodgers didn't make the playoffs. Newtons team came in 3rd but he drafted Romo in Rd 4 I think and Newton was a waiver pickup.

[deluxe1]

QB's in the finals of my leagues for real jelly beans.

 

1) Rodgers beat Ryan

2) Stafford beat Rivers

3) Rodgers beat Brady

4) Stafford beat Vick

5) Stafford beat Brees

 

One non-playoff league.

Matt Ryan team. Best record. Most points.

Drew Breese team. Same record. 2nd place due to points.

 

Stafford winning three titles puts him in the elite category in my small sample size.

[godtomsatan]

Ive never been one to take a qb early. I actually won our league with Eli Manning as my only qb. Hes hardly an elite ff qb.

 

Do you award 6 playoff spots in your league? He's currently at about the 6th best QB this year.

[Footballjoe]

In a 12 team Dynasty League I drafted Big Ben in the 8th or 9th roynd I believe. I rolled with him all year except for our playoffs since he was injured. I won with Skelton.