detlef Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 1) Carolina is playing really well right now and I'd honestly be tempted to take them +8 even under normal circumstances. They're looking to finish the season on a high note and have no reason to mail it in. 2) Brees is likely to start, but if, by half-time, the Niners are housing the Rams and Brady hasn't thrown for 300 yards already, don't you think NO takes its foot off the gas? Up to and including pulling the starters? After all, the Panther's biggest problem has been finishing this year. That may be mitigated by playing an opponent who doesn't have much to play for by the time the 3rd or 4th quarter rolls around. My chef's on-line bookie hasn't posted a money line yet, but I'm certainly taking the points and am tempted to bet half as much on the money line as well, provided it's tasty enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theprofessor Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 1) Carolina is playing really well right now and I'd honestly be tempted to take them +8 even under normal circumstances. They're looking to finish the season on a high note and have no reason to mail it in. 2) Brees is likely to start, but if, by half-time, the Niners are housing the Rams and Brady hasn't thrown for 300 yards already, don't you think NO takes its foot off the gas? Up to and including pulling the starters? After all, the Panther's biggest problem has been finishing this year. That may be mitigated by playing an opponent who doesn't have much to play for by the time the 3rd or 4th quarter rolls around. My chef's on-line bookie hasn't posted a money line yet, but I'm certainly taking the points and am tempted to bet half as much on the money line as well, provided it's tasty enough. I agree. Carolina is playing with a ton of confidence right now and I think Cam keeps this one close. Boy was I ever wrong about Cam Newton. He has had a tremendous year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted December 30, 2011 Author Share Posted December 30, 2011 I agree. Carolina is playing with a ton of confidence right now and I think Cam keeps this one close. Boy was I ever wrong about Cam Newton. He has had a tremendous year. Anyone who says they knew he'd be this good is a liar. Flat out. I was about as high on him as most, and by that I simply didn't think he'd be a flop. That he had a better chance of doing well than the others he was being compared to. But I didn't see this coming at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 1) Carolina is playing really well right now and I'd honestly be tempted to take them +8 even under normal circumstances. They're looking to finish the season on a high note and have no reason to mail it in. 2) Brees is likely to start, but if, by half-time, the Niners are housing the Rams and Brady hasn't thrown for 300 yards already, don't you think NO takes its foot off the gas? Up to and including pulling the starters? After all, the Panther's biggest problem has been finishing this year. That may be mitigated by playing an opponent who doesn't have much to play for by the time the 3rd or 4th quarter rolls around. My chef's on-line bookie hasn't posted a money line yet, but I'm certainly taking the points and am tempted to bet half as much on the money line as well, provided it's tasty enough. Be careful with this part of your analysis. The 49ers only score 20 points a game, and even though its the Rams, this one might not be "in the books" until late in the 3rd quarter. Which would mean Brees and friends would also be playing full-tilt right along with them, at least well into the 3rd quarter. And knowing the Pats are playing the Bills pathetic pass defense, and they need to win at 1:00 to secure home-field, I think the play with their foot on the throttle. Belichek and Brady love them some records, so it wouldn't surprise me to see them throw it a ton early and often to put Brady in position to secure (at least temporarily) the record. At which point Payton and Brees may do the same to get it back for Drew. It could be McGuire/Sosaesque in terms of them both going back and forth on the final day of the year, which would be awesome. Would the Saints winning 31-20 really shock you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted December 30, 2011 Author Share Posted December 30, 2011 Be careful with this part of your analysis. The 49ers only score 20 points a game, and even though its the Rams, this one might not be "in the books" until late in the 3rd quarter. Which would mean Brees and friends would also be playing full-tilt right along with them, at least well into the 3rd quarter. And knowing the Pats are playing the Bills pathetic pass defense, and they need to win at 1:00 to secure home-field, I think the play with their foot on the throttle. Belichek and Brady love them some records, so it wouldn't surprise me to see them throw it a ton early and often to put Brady in position to secure (at least temporarily) the record. At which point Payton and Brees may do the same to get it back for Drew. It could be McGuire/Sosaesque in terms of them both going back and forth on the final day of the year, which would be awesome. Would the Saints winning 31-20 really shock you? Like I said, I'd take the points regardless, the rest is just a bonus. And, yes, it would shock me if the Panthers only scored 20 pts. Their D is playing better of late as well. I think Carolina can keep up long enough and well enough that they'd likely cover anyway and have an outstanding chance even if NO only lets off the gas in the 4th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Agree should be good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 Tempering expectations having learned that Carolina could be short some more guys on defense Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooby's Hubby Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 too bad Caroliina hasn't played defense this year or I might buy into this. but, it is crazy enough to work, so I will lay off this one and bid you all the luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 too bad Caroliina hasn't played defense this year or I might buy into this. but, it is crazy enough to work, so I will lay off this one and bid you all the luck. They've only given up more than 20 pts once in their last 5 games. It's not quite as bad as before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooby's Hubby Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 They've only given up more than 20 pts once in their last 5 games. It's not quite as bad as before. Beware, I am actually starting to buy in. Caroliina will score. The line is 7.5 and CAR is +2.9. In a NFL pool pick 'em and will go with you there, I need to make us some ground and am forced to pick some upsets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tally Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 (edited) Be careful with this part of your analysis. The 49ers only score 20 points a game, and even though its the Rams, this one might not be "in the books" until late in the 3rd quarter. Which would mean Brees and friends would also be playing full-tilt right along with them, at least well into the 3rd quarter. And knowing the Pats are playing the Bills pathetic pass defense, and they need to win at 1:00 to secure home-field, I think the play with their foot on the throttle. Belichek and Brady love them some records, so it wouldn't surprise me to see them throw it a ton early and often to put Brady in position to secure (at least temporarily) the record. At which point Payton and Brees may do the same to get it back for Drew. It could be McGuire/Sosaesque in terms of them both going back and forth on the final day of the year, which would be awesome. Would the Saints winning 31-20 really shock you? +1 Except I think were looking at more of a 48-27 type game... Saint's need this win for playoff seeding. It's in the superdome and as much as I agree with some of the points made about C.Newton you can not discount how terrible the CAR defense is. That D against this O is a major mismatch... Saint's win by double digits IMO. Edited January 1, 2012 by Tally Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Don't you have to at least take a look at Gb getting 4 tomorrow at home? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted January 1, 2012 Author Share Posted January 1, 2012 OK, so just for that, all my picks next year are free of charge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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